How many of you actually believe single game +/- tells you who had the most impact?

[Kblaze8855]

We have been hearing more and more about plus/minus lately. Many people(often trolls or people just looking to annoy) pop into topics touting or mocking someones on/off regardless of how they performed. Claims that people who had apparently big games must have had an "empty" performance(another concept that is growing more and more foolish over time but thats another topic).

Over the course of many games there are still on/off issues like who is on and off the floor with you but those can level off with a large enough sample size(or at least thats the justification for caring about them). So I wont go into that.

But in one game?


Ok.


When Kobe has 46/6/5 on good shooting and is -1 in 40 minutes while Odom has 20/7 in 44 minutes and is +7....is there anyone here who thinks Odom had the greater impact on the game far as helping the team? Or when he had 51/9/4 on .626ts(for those who care) vs Odoms 16/10/6 on .504ts....Kobe -13 Odom +3....they played 44 and 45 minutes.

That something you caring about?


When Shaq has 44/20/5 in the finals for a negative six...but Rick Fox is plus two in 44 minutes and Lue is plus nine of 22 minutes.....

On the current version of ISH would there be someone on here talking about plus/minus?


Do those of you who come in topics talking that shit not realize how often it goes in the face of common sense or do you see it and simply not bring it up when it goes against the point you wish to make?






This is the Kobe 46 game by the way....







https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eAIC8xn3H0Y







You honestly caring what the on/off splits were that game?



Maybe as like a "Jesus christ....look at this" bit of trivia. But I see people straight up post these on/off numbers that fly in the face of all observation and defend it as if its a serious point.

[Kblaze8855]

Shaqs -6.......




https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cMERbM6ek6Y

[Kblaze8855]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_N8YQLTHSS0



Lebron goes for 43/15/13 and a -5 ....Anthony Parker +13. Thats the game he and Melo both had 40. Both of their highlights if you care:


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xp0mZvdsXiI

[Micku]

I always look at stats when the mindset of the numbers don't lie, but with ppl using it in the wrong context, it'll mislead on the purpose of the stat.

It goes beyond just +/-. PER, Ortg, DRtg, VOP, and usage. The usage percent drives me nuts because ppl on the forums and analyst on TV use it as a main indicator of a player holding the ball. That's not really how you are supposed to use that stat. It's meant to show how many plays are run through the player, in other words, what % of the offense is the team dependent on the player, but even that is flawed. Regardless, they don't use the stat correctly, and refuse to use time of possession.

Perhaps I'm getting off track a bit, but it's similar to +/-. There are factors that isn't in consideration. When a team is down, and not playing well, it doesn't really show that one player is keeping them in the game. It also doesn't account of the rotation players, line ups, or exploits that the team does to get them back in the game. The player could be lucky and be in a 7-0 in order to win the game, but the star player is actually the one who kept them in that position in the first place. But there are other scenario, like defense or FTs when the other team is in the bonus. I don't think it is very reliable on single games. Small sample size. You always get weird results. I think it's better to judge for long stretches. It still won't tell the full story due to the context, lineup and rotation.

And +/- isn't the big be all stat. It's not the best, but it's definitely not useless or something that you toss under in the trash. It can definitely tell you the impact of a player, offensively or defensively. Or better yet, what line ups work the best. Most ppl are only interested in the individual players rather than the team. I'm talking about the death line up that the Warriors had. Or when early Celts bring out Mchale into the line up and finish with him.

As mentioned, using it over a single game? Not really useful. All sorts of weird stuff happens. But using it over a long stretches of games? You would start to see what type of player would impact the game for their team. But most importantly, what line up work the best for the specific player. This does depend on the team that they are facing, but it still records the players that have better chemistry than others.

[Phoenix]

Stats are an account of what happened. 'Why' and 'how' it happened requires you to actually watch what you are seeing instead of referring to basketball reference. So what someone dropping +/- says to me, especially some of the individuals here who swear by it, is you aren't actually trying to have a basketball discussion. You found a 'you cant argue with this' stat that you can't or don't really analyze beyond having the basic math skills to know that -1 is lower on the scale than +1, even if the person with -1 is 30/8/8 and the person with +1 is 8/7/5 or whatever.

It's not to say that these stats are meaningless, but they are contextual and it turns the debate from one of talking ball to, you may as well be arguing about pivot tables. It's a really lame ass way to debate sports and nobody knows these numbers off the top of their head. They have b-ball reference on standby. You'd be told to GTFO hard bringing that bullshit into a debate at the park or barbershop but internet warriors flaunt it like they wielding the sword of omens.

[FKAri]

Probably means the opposing team's bench sucked that game.

[ImKobe]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_N8YQLTHSS0



Lebron goes for 43/15/13 and a -5 ....Anthony Parker +13. Thats the game he and Melo both had 40. Both of their highlights if you care:


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xp0mZvdsXiI

Melo had a better game scoring wise & he also had 7 assists to just 1 turnover for the whole game. He was superior in crunch time.

Melo in 4th + OT went for 17 points on 7/8 shooting with 2 assists and 0 turnovers
Lebron in 4th + OT went for 24 points on 8/17 shooting with 2 assists and 2 turnovers

These numbers do look pretty even, and you can argue that Lebron was a bit better in the 4th, but Melo's 3/3 for 6 points and 0 turnovers in OT is superior to Lebron's 2/6 shooting with 0 assists and a turnover. Lebron missed a FT to tie the game so Melo put them up 3 on the next possession and his clutch 3 got it to OT. Lebron missed 1 and Shaq missed 2 FTs in OT and they ended up losing by a point, this is backed up by Melo having a +/- of +6 vs Lebron's -6 in this 17-minute stretch, both played every single minute of 4th/OT.

As far as Anthony Parker goes, he had a great +/- because he only played 30 minutes and the bench did a bad job as he rested, Denver had the better 2nd unit in that game because so many Cavs' players sat out and Mo was on minutes' restriction after having sat out for almost a whole month. Lebron was terrible to end the 1st quarter so they fell down by 10, Cavs make a small run in the 2nd quarter with him on the bench and Anthony Parker & Shaq leading the way, that's where the +/- numbers go in some of his teammates' favor.

You shouldn't use +/- to say one was better than the other, but you can use it to give the game some context. Like, one guy can struggle shooting but he'll impact his team in other ways for them to still outscore the opponent with him on the court, and that's when it should be a stat to look at. If a player's constantly a positive on the court, he has to be doing something right. I don't like using it outside of looking at a stretch in a certain game or just in the context of one single game or a series.

[Kblaze8855]

Im not sure why you were talking about Melo to begin with since my only reference to him was that it was the game they both had 40(assuming some of us remember it). So I wont go into that....

Far as parker.....yea....thats how it works. I dont think anyone fails to grasp how the numbers come to be. You go out...someone sucks or perhaps steps up....changes your personal plus/minus. Thats mostly the problem. Well no problem isnt the word. Its only a problem when people make it one by trying to make it more than it is.

If I sit down and my backup hits a couple threes while the opposing star is also out and his backups miss theirs....it doesnt say much about me.

[tpols]

Probably means the opposing team's bench sucked that game.

This. Compare apples to apples.

[ImKobe]

Im not sure why you were talking about Melo to begin with since my only reference to him was that it was the game they both had 40(assuming some of us remember it). So I wont go into that....

Far as parker.....yea....thats how it works. I dont think anyone fails to grasp how the numbers come to be. You go out...someone sucks or perhaps steps up....changes your personal plus/minus. Thats mostly the problem. Well no problem isnt the word. Its only a problem when people make it one by trying to make it more than it is.

If I sit down and my backup hits a couple threes while the opposing star is also out and his backups miss theirs....it doesnt say much about me.

It depends on the game. I was never a big fan of the stat to begin with, but certain posters here loved to use it in favor of some players, I don't think it says much when comparing one player to another since there are so many variables that play into it, but you could use it along with someone's scoring numbers in crunch time to give you an idea of how good they are in certain situations. It's one of those stats that's easy to nit-pick when looking at "advanced stats" to make a case for or against a certain player.

[tontoz]

+/- needs a large sample size to be reliable. Looking at an entire season it is a pretty good indicator of a players impact. Over the course of a single game it can be good for some entertaining hot takes but not much else.

[ronniec]

From a single game, it is not a good reference
From whole season, multiple seasons, career, yes, it is.
You can't be fluke for that long

[kuniva_dAMiGhTy]

Not big on raw +/-

For careers, seasons or single games. If its not accounting for lineups or opponents then is it really useful?

RPM, RAPM AND PIPM are all adjusted forms of +/- AND take into account that tangible stuff. They're better measures of impact.

[Marchesk]

From a single game, it is not a good reference
From whole season, multiple seasons, career, yes, it is.
You can't be fluke for that long

What if told you that Jayson Tatum has a higher +/- for the season than Lebron?

[Phoenix]

Want to know how serious you should take +/-? Here's an example:

Game 6 1998 NBA finals, these are the numbers for the Bulls starting lineup

Jordan 45/1/1/ 54% TS +2
Kukoc 15/4/3 54% TS +8
Harper 8/3/3 82%TS +5
Pippen 8/4/3 57% TS +15
Longley 0/0/2 00% -4

Some jackass on this site will happily argue that Pipppen, Kukoc and Harper were all more vital to the Bulls pulling out that game because of +/-.

[Docs Orders]

Poor ImKobe :roll:

+/-!

+/-!!!


:yaohappy:

[SouBeachTalents]

Other ones that are hilarious

1998 Finals Game 6
Jordan: +2
Pippen: +16

2007 ECF Game 5
LeBron: +2
Donyell Marshall: +14

[Docs Orders]

Jordan Jordan Jordan

:oldlol:

[Phoenix]

Other ones that are hilarious

1998 Finals Game 6
Jordan: +2
Pippen: +16



Lol we had the same point. Look at my earlier post, it's not even just Pippen. Kukoc and Harper both had better plus/minus numbers that game.

[Phoenix]

I hang off Phoenix's nut$ack

:cheers:

[Phoenix]

Oh Doc Orders/ Wheels, you may just need to cry on Uncle Jeff's shoulder after this, babyboi....

Game 7 2016 NBA finals

James 27/11/11 +4
Irving 26/1/6 +10
JR Smith 12/2/4 +7
Thompson 9/0/3 +2
Love 9/3/14 +19


Oops.

[ronniec]

What if told you that Jayson Tatum has a higher +/- for the season than Lebron?

Are you implying that Tatum is a better defender than Lebron?

+/- is a reference, not necessary to read too much and over analyze.
I won't say being a + means having better impact (or most) on the court.

Probably Pat Beverly has much better +/- than Lebron, but is he a better player than him?
Hell no.

[Phoenix]

Are you implying that Tatum is a better defender than Lebron?

+/- is a reference, not necessary to read too much and over analyze.
I won't say being a + means having better impact (or most) on the court.

Probably Pat Beverly has much better +/- than Lebron, but is he a better player than him?
Hell no.

That's the point of this thread, to show how +/- can't be an end-all, be-all argument because it would lead to some ridiculous conclusions in some cases.

[ronniec]

That's the point of this thread, to show how +/- can't be an end-all, be-all argument because it would lead to some ridiculous conclusions in some cases.

I agree. Just cherry picking one stat from many is pointless.

[superduper]

Oh Doc Orders/ Wheels, you may just need to cry on Uncle Jeff's shoulder after this, babyboi....

Game 7 2016 NBA finals

James 27/11/11 +4
Irving 26/1/6 +10
JR Smith 12/2/4 +7
Thompson 9/0/3 +2
Love 9/3/14 +19


Oops.

Anddddddd the Branvestites are gonnneeeeeee :roll:

[Kblaze8855]

I’d love to see wilts 1962 plus minus. He played all but 6 minutes....and that due to an ejection. It would be his whole teams season score against the opponents.....plus figuring out the 6 minutes.

[red1]

We have been hearing more and more about plus/minus lately. Many people(often trolls or people just looking to annoy) pop into topics touting or mocking someones on/off regardless of how they performed. Claims that people who had apparently big games must have had an "empty" performance(another concept that is growing more and more foolish over time but thats another topic).

Over the course of many games there are still on/off issues like who is on and off the floor with you but those can level off with a large enough sample size(or at least thats the justification for caring about them). So I wont go into that.

But in one game?


Ok.


When Kobe has 46/6/5 on good shooting and is -1 in 40 minutes while Odom has 20/7 in 44 minutes and is +7....is there anyone here who thinks Odom had the greater impact on the game far as helping the team? Or when he had 51/9/4 on .626ts(for those who care) vs Odoms 16/10/6 on .504ts....Kobe -13 Odom +3....they played 44 and 45 minutes.

That something you caring about?


When Shaq has 44/20/5 in the finals for a negative six...but Rick Fox is plus two in 44 minutes and Lue is plus nine of 22 minutes.....

On the current version of ISH would there be someone on here talking about plus/minus?


Do those of you who come in topics talking that shit not realize how often it goes in the face of common sense or do you see it and simply not bring it up when it goes against the point you wish to make?






This is the Kobe 46 game by the way....







https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eAIC8xn3H0Y







You honestly caring what the on/off splits were that game?



Maybe as like a "Jesus christ....look at this" bit of trivia. But I see people straight up post these on/off numbers that fly in the face of all observation and defend it as if its a serious point.

another great post from the lebron of this forum carrying it on his broad shoulders :applause:



plus minus is very useful but it doesnt account for lineups on the court - can go off in garbagetime or against the bench and something like that will skew the stats heavily. again its still a very useful stat.

[Marchesk]

I’d love to see wilts 1962 plus minus. He played all but 6 minutes....and that due to an ejection. It would be his whole teams season score against the opponents.....plus figuring out the 6 minutes.


Wouldn't it be the point differential for the team? We can discount those six minutes as they're insigficant.

So 125.4 - 122.7 = only +2.7

Unless I misunderstand.

[Marchesk]

In case someone's thinking that Wilt's "best" season means he wasn't that impactful, he averaged 45.5 mpg for the 66/67 76ers where the team had a point differential of 9.4 That team actually averaged more points (125.2).

[Kblaze8855]

Wouldn't it be the point differential for the team? We can discount those six minutes as they're insigficant.

So 125.4 - 122.7 = only +2.7

Unless I misunderstand.


In the spirit of it it would be. But in fact? If they lost those 6 minutes by 5 points wilts 62 season is a negative in plus/minus. It obviously doesn’t matter....just a weird thing.

[Kblaze8855]

I see we’re back on this and I feel like almost every mention of it is trolling. Has plus minus reached strictly trolling status?

[imdaman99]

I only believe it if it involves my favorite player otherwise it's useless

[Xiao Yao You]

I see we’re back on this and I feel like almost every mention of it is trolling. Has plus minus reached strictly trolling status?

sportswriters use it all time. I think many believe it is a telling stat. Maybe because it's easier to digest than other advanced numbers?

[1987_Lakers]

Going by a single game, +- is pretty useless. There are alot of variables that go into why a player had a good/bad plus minus. It's a stat that should be used during a large sum of games.

[Xiao Yao You]

trolls certainly love it as long as it works in their favor. If it doesn't than they forget all about it and find something else that will push their agenda. I see you Manny! :roll:

[Axe]

I see we’re back on this and I feel like almost every mention of it is trolling. Has plus minus reached strictly trolling status?
Braindead lebron haters love it if lebron has a negative one but will say it's meaningless if he gets a positive one. Weird af. :confusedshrug:

[ImKobe]

Braindead lebron haters love it if lebron has a negative one but will say it's meaningless if he gets a positive one. Weird af. :confusedshrug:

Bran fans started the +/- trend but are whining now that it's used against them. Classic.

[Full Court]

In all seriousness, +/- is absolutely useless in evaluating a single player's performance.

It's utility is in seeing what combinations of players work best together as a trend.

And Bronie fluffers were the ones who started touting it. That's why the rest of us use it to poke at them.

[tpols]

Any and every stat will have outliers. All +/- does is tell us whether your team outscored the opposing team when you were on the floor or not. It's probably pretty important even over counting stats.

[tontoz]

+/- needs a large sample size to be reliable. Looking at an entire season it is a pretty good indicator of a players impact. Over the course of a single game it can be good for some entertaining hot takes but not much else.



This is from page 1. My view hasn't changed but I confess I will site single game numbers from time to time if they reinforce my argument. :oldlol:

[Jasper]

I see we’re back on this and I feel like almost every mention of it is trolling. Has plus minus reached strictly trolling status?

I don't think so unless someone is using it as only their only argument.
But I will say the king of +/- is Brogdon.

He has had a very impactful way throughout his career. Bucks, Indy and now Boston.
He may start a pass , not an assist / but leads to points. Critical rebounds, and slashing to the hoop to break up the defense.

I never wanted the bucks to drop him / but Boston is perfect fit for his bad feet.

[Manny98]

I used to but as I have gotten older I have leaned more towards the eye test when judging a players performance than stats.

Too many factors that have nothing to do with the players performance have an effect on their +/- to the point that the stat is useless when looking at a single game

[dankok8]

Not big on raw +/-

For careers, seasons or single games. If its not accounting for lineups or opponents then is it really useful?

RPM, RAPM AND PIPM are all adjusted forms of +/- AND take into account that tangible stuff. They're better measures of impact.

Even the adjusted one has issues. Once you start accounting for lineups, the sample sizes effectively get even smaller. As a result stuff like RAPM and PIPM is only useful for the regular season say three to five season stretches or 250-400 games and still suffer from extreme noise in the playoffs. The OFF samples when star players sit are very small and the snippets with various lineups are literally like a few possessions in a postseason.

[999Guy]

We have been hearing more and more about plus/minus lately. Many people(often trolls or people just looking to annoy) pop into topics touting or mocking someones on/off regardless of how they performed. Claims that people who had apparently big games must have had an "empty" performance(another concept that is growing more and more foolish over time but thats another topic).

Over the course of many games there are still on/off issues like who is on and off the floor with you but those can level off with a large enough sample size(or at least thats the justification for caring about them). So I wont go into that.

But in one game?


Ok.


When Kobe has 46/6/5 on good shooting and is -1 in 40 minutes while Odom has 20/7 in 44 minutes and is +7....is there anyone here who thinks Odom had the greater impact on the game far as helping the team? Or when he had 51/9/4 on .626ts(for those who care) vs Odoms 16/10/6 on .504ts....Kobe -13 Odom +3....they played 44 and 45 minutes.

That something you caring about?


When Shaq has 44/20/5 in the finals for a negative six...but Rick Fox is plus two in 44 minutes and Lue is plus nine of 22 minutes.....

On the current version of ISH would there be someone on here talking about plus/minus?


Do those of you who come in topics talking that shit not realize how often it goes in the face of common sense or do you see it and simply not bring it up when it goes against the point you wish to make?






This is the Kobe 46 game by the way....







https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eAIC8xn3H0Y







You honestly caring what the on/off splits were that game?



Maybe as like a "Jesus christ....look at this" bit of trivia. But I see people straight up post these on/off numbers that fly in the face of all observation and defend it as if its a serious point.

That's just noise. You can't measure that difference unless you have some sort of feel for it, which humans can have. People "feel" their way into winning millions trading stocks, betting on games, and daily fantasy. Feel is a real science in itself. But the average fam won't know that.

I will say, I flat out believe it is possible Odom did have a better game. Purely due to how unlimited defense can be on effecting a basketball game. Ironically in a sport with such high scores, and scorers, defenders are the games best ever, and defense scales up and down better than just offense.

Never has the league seen a bad defensive, good offensive team win a title. It's seen bad offensive, good defensive teams win multiple times in every era.

But you need to just apply a simple level of critical thought to +/-. Kobe was a -1 while playing great offense...He was almost certainly playing bad defense. That's what my "feel" tells me as someone who pays attention to the sport and has for while. Now how bad exactly? I cant know that. But as a hunch, its the right assumption no matter what player you are talking about. And Kobe did play disgusting defense in 07. Critically thinking, I can put the performance into proper perspective.



Guy has pitiful offensive stats but is plus whatever? He was almost certainly playing great defense. And I've seen this with my own eyes many times. You just track the shit and compare/contrast your eye test with the +/- and +/- is capturing something, it just isn't doing it perfectly or purely because of all the variables, mainly teammates and oppostion.

But if you're not a dummy +/- will not confuse, surprise, or frustrate you.

[Im Still Ballin]

Jamal Murray And Nikola Jokic in the first round:

Jamal Murray: -25.8
Nikola Jokic: -24.7

What they're averaging:

Jamal Murray: 27.2 ppg, 5.6 rpg, 6.4 apg, 1.0 spg, 0.4 bpg, 2.6 topg on 59.8% TS

Nikola Jokic: 26.2 ppg, 12.4 rpg, 9.0 apg, 1.2 spg, 0.4 bpg, 2.8 topg on 57.5% TS

[Manny98]

Last night Butler was a -10 whilst Vincent was a +15

Butler was obviously by far the best and most impactful player on the floor

A great example of why +/- is a dumb stat and anyone who uses it is to try and prove a point is a complete idiot

[Xiao Yao You]

Last night Butler was a -10 whilst Vincent was a +15

Butler was obviously by far the best and most impactful player on the floor

A great example of why +/- is a dumb stat and anyone who uses it is to try and prove a point is a complete idiot

and Manny will be the first to use it if it fits his agenda :facepalm