is my coronavirus math correct?

[diamenz]

italy's total population: roughly 60 million

number of known infections in italy: roughly 25000

calculates out to 0.042% of the total population that's been infected.

for the hell of it, let's double the number of italy's total infected - now that number = 0.083%

now quadrupled (100,000) = 0.166

for argument's sake, let's say that any of these percentages are roughly consistent in any given country worldwide. are the above percentages an indication of how much of a chance you could indeed become infected? or am i just on a head trip.

for example, using the quadrupled percentage above, you would have to come into contact with 862 people before you encountered someone that is in fact infected.

using the actual infected number for italy, you would have to come into contact with 2,380 people before you found someone infected.

[diamenz]

i hope that all even somewhat makes sense.

[rufuspaul]

The thing is you don't know whether anyone you come into contact with will give you the virus. You could be unlucky and get it from the first person you come into contact with. Also this bastard survives in the air and on surfaces so you could get it without coming into contact with anyone. Italy is in bad shape right now because their healthcare system can't handle the spike and it doesn't look like it's going to get better any time soon. Bad time to have a heart attack or get into an accident.

It's coming to the U.S. soon too. Our measures so far have been too little too late.

[~primetime~]

Yes

Even in the city of Wuhan, less than 1% of the population was infected.

[diamenz]

The thing is you don't know whether anyone you come into contact with will give you the virus. You could be unlucky and get it from the first person you come into contact with. Also this bastard survives in the air and on surfaces so you could get it without coming into contact with anyone. Italy is in bad shape right now because their healthcare system can't handle the spike and it doesn't look like it's going to get better any time soon. Bad time to have a heart attack or get into an accident.

It's coming to the U.S. soon too. Our measures so far have been too little too late.

that's what i worry about - too little, too late. even though at this point we've basically shut down as a nation, the cases that are already up and coming as we speak are going to peak all at once two weeks from now, and last for months ahead.


Also this bastard survives in the air and on surfaces

ugh, don't know how that slipped my mind... just constantly searching for peace of mind right now lol.

[rawimpact]

Well remember, viral transmission tends to be exponential naturally unless we do self-quarentine or there are other measures taken.

Remember, R0 is 2.2 from what I last read for COVID-19

[rawimpact]

Want to know a real fear besides physician and hospitals running out of disposables? There are physicians ordering CTs for this. Complete waste of money... also, if anyone sends over a swab to labcore, you're getting played.

[superduper]

Yes

Even in the city of Wuhan, less than 1% of the population was infected.

This is just absolutely not true. Those were just the diagnosed and reported cases. In reality the numbers are much, much higher.

[Stanley Kobrick]

This is just absolutely not true. Those were just the diagnosed and reported cases. In reality the numbers are much, much higher.
so complex, so many variables.

[~primetime~]

This is just absolutely not true. Those were just the diagnosed and reported cases. In reality the numbers are much, much higher.

I don't doubt that there are lots of unreported cases, but if the numbers are actually "much, much higher" then that means the death rate is actually "much, much lower"

I feel like we can get a somewhat decent ballpark figure by simply looking at the death count

[ZenMaster]

I don't doubt that there are lots of unreported cases, but if the numbers are actually "much, much higher" then that means the death rate is actually "much, much lower"

I feel like we can get a somewhat decent ballpark figure by simply looking at the death count

WHO has made a point out of saying that figures reported so far can't be used as a mortality rate, they're simply a count up of known deaths vs count up of known cases.

[~primetime~]

WHO has made a point out of saying that figures reported so far can't be used as a mortality rate, they're simply a count up of known deaths vs count up of known cases.

Their current "estimate" is 3.4%

So if that estimate is close to reality, we could get a decent ballpark figure based on the number of deaths.

[ZenMaster]

Their current "estimate" is 3.4%

So if that estimate is close to reality, we could get a decent ballpark figure based on the number of deaths.

Let's call it "the mortality rate of known cases", because that's what it is.


That’s why World Health Organization (WHO) officials - who said last week that 3.4% of the people worldwide confirmed as having been infected with the new coronavirus had died - were careful not to describe that as a mortality rate or death rate.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-mortality/why-covid-19-death-rates-are-not-what-they-seem-idUSKBN20Z281

[~primetime~]

*if* all deaths are "known"...then we should be able to get a close ballpark figure based on the 3.4% estimate WHO currently has.

I mean, I feel like it's safe to say there are not 1 million cases in China...or they would have roughly 34,000 dead elderly bodies to deal with right now.

They are reporting 3,200 deaths...if that is correct and the 3.4% is close...the real number of their infected should be around 94,000

[ZenMaster]

*if* all deaths are "known"...then we should be able to get a close ballpark figure based on the 3.4% estimate WHO currently has.

I mean, I feel like it's safe to say there are not 1 million cases in China...or they would have roughly 34,000 dead elderly bodies to deal with right now.

They are reporting 3,200 deaths...if that is correct and the 3.4% is close...the real number of their infected should be around 94,000

I think you are misunderstanding.

Out of the confirmed cases so far, about 3.4% has died.

But reality is that we do not know of all real cases, as most people only experience very mild symptoms and don't get checked. So the real mortality rate is much much lower and it's not an estimate as you say.

[~primetime~]

I think you are misunderstanding.

Out of the confirmed cases so far, about 3.4% has died.

But reality is that we do not know of all real cases, as most people only experience very mild symptoms and don't get checked. So the real mortality rate is much much lower and it's not an estimate as you say.

I think you are misunderstand me...I am assuming all deaths must be confirmed

It is easy for people with mild cases to go unconfirmed...but it is difficult for deaths to go unconfirmed

honestly it's probably difficult for anyone in serious condition to go unconfirmed

[~primetime~]

Oh I see where we are miscommunicating now

WHO's estimate is NOT based on confirmed cases

of the confirmed cases near 8% has died

[~primetime~]

yeah I'm assuming WHO was able to get at least close to reality with the 3.4%...whatever method they used

*if* the 3.4% is close

we should be able to get a decent sense of reality from the death count using that percentage

[ZenMaster]

yeah I'm assuming WHO was able to get at least close to reality with the 3.4%...whatever method they used

*if* the 3.4% is close

we should be able to get a decent sense of reality from the death count using that percentage

My logical sense says this is way off.

Where are you getting this estimate exactly?

Right now per Worldometer:

Total number of cases, both active and recovered: 181,202

Reported deaths: 7121

That's just under 4% of confirmed cases that have ended in death so far.

Then there are all the people who either have had it or have it right now, but have never gotten tested and won't. This is the number that's estimated to be anywhere between 5-100x the confirmed number of cases. The higher this number is, the lower the real mortality rate of the virus.

After that you can sort of even bring the rate down a bit lower, because some the people who died from the virus where probably already sick at a level where they would have died in the same period anyways.
E.g in Denmark there are is 1 death confirmed from corona, and 3 deaths to someone who had corona at time of death, but they're not sure it's the ultimate cause of death and so they're making a distinction between the two.

[~primetime~]

per worldometer cases with a known outcome either recovered or death the rate 8%...with the rest pending an outcome

There are definitely a of variables to this thing, I was really putting some faith in WHO that they took all these variables into consideration best they could. It is possible the actual death rate is much lower 3.4% I suppose.

[ZenMaster]

per worldometer cases with a known outcome either recovered or death the rate 8%...with the rest pending an outcome

There are definitely a of variables to this thing, I was really putting some faith in WHO that they took all these variables into consideration best they could. It is possible the actual death rate is much lower 3.4% I suppose.

Ah yeah that's true, I'm just being an idiot :)

Please note the wording from the press conference though from March 3rd:

"Globally, about 3.4% of reported COVID-19 cases have died. By comparison, seasonal flu generally kills far fewer than 1% of those infected.”

3.4% of reported COVID-19 cases..

Absolutely positively the death rate of this thing is lower than 3.4%, because of all the people having it without being tested. That's also why we're seeing everything being shut down, to slow down the spread.
Simply put, if we don't know exactly how many people has it, then we can't calculate how many of the people who has it are dead from it.

[~primetime~]

Simply put, if we don't know exactly how many people has it, then we can't calculate how many of the people who has it are dead from it.

yes true, but science can make estimates...and I was assuming WHO tried best they could knowing many humans would go untested and that being a variable to their estimate. I don't think they simply took the death count from the total infected. I'm probably giving them way too much credit though

[ZenMaster]

yes true, but science can make estimates...and I was assuming WHO tried best they could knowing many humans would go untested and that being a variable to their estimate. I don't think they simply took the death count from the total infected. I'm probably giving them way too much credit though

Where are you seeing this as an estimate mate? I'm pretty sure they did exactly that, because that's what they say they did :)

"Globally, about 3.4% of reported COVID-19 cases have died."

https://www.who.int/dg/speeches/detail/who-director-general-s-opening-remarks-at-the-media-briefing-on-covid-19---3-march-2020

[~primetime~]

Geez it looks like they did do that :facepalm When they announced the 3.4% estimate I really thought they took more into account than that.

Not even sure why that announcement got headlines

[ZenMaster]

Geez it looks like they did do that :facepalm When they announced the 3.4% estimate I really thought they took more into account than that.

Not even sure why that announcement got headlines

WHO and the media aren't the same, and I'm guessing it's the latter who classified this as an estimate.

[bladefd]

Ah yeah that's true, I'm just being an idiot :)

Please note the wording from the press conference though from March 3rd:

"Globally, about 3.4% of reported COVID-19 cases have died. By comparison, seasonal flu generally kills far fewer than 1% of those infected.”

3.4% of reported COVID-19 cases..

Absolutely positively the death rate of this thing is lower than 3.4%, because of all the people having it without being tested. That's also why we're seeing everything being shut down, to slow down the spread.
Simply put, if we don't know exactly how many people has it, then we can't calculate how many of the people who has it are dead from it.

Even 1% to 2% mortality rate range is pretty high for a virus that spreads as efficiently as this does.. People staying indoors will slow down the spread though and we will see fewer infected/deaths certainly.. We will be alright

Seasonal Flu tends to be around 0.1% so most don't worry too much about it