CNN reports that up to 80,000 people have been infected in Santa Clara county.

[warriorfan]

https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/17/health/santa-clara-coronavirus-infections-study/index.html


If 50 times more people have had the infection, the death rate could drop by that same factor, putting it "somewhere between 'little worse than the flu' to 'twice as bad as the flu' in terms of case fatality rate," Bhattacharya said.


Interesting.

[coin24]

What happened to ten times deadlier than the flu bro!!?

We all need to be locked down for our own safety!!!!

[warriorfan]

What happened to ten times deadlier than the flu bro!!?

We all need to be locked down for our own safety!!!!

:roll:

Wheels with his compromised immune system getting all scared. :lol

[KD7]

I was right all the f*cking long, I been said that this virus is comparable to the flu and it's not worth shutting down the entire economy over :facepalm

I'm waiting for a apology for everyone that was attacking me for simply calling out the truth these past few weeks

[KD7]

What happened to ten times deadlier than the flu bro!!?

We all need to be locked down for our own safety!!!!

:roll:

[tpols]

I was right all the f*cking long, I been said that this virus is comparable to the flu and it's not worth shutting down the entire economy over :facepalm

I'm waiting for a apology for everyone that was attacking me for simply calling out the truth these past few weeks

Lizard people.

[jstern]

First Walk on Water was right all along about the Coronavirus, and now Manny98. The two posters with threads asking the mods to ban them. What a time.

[imdaman99]

People really laughing and joking about this??? :biggums: one of my closer friend's pops just passed away and he was in good health, had everything going for him financially and was taking care of a lot of people. And it was this virus, not some fkin flu.

Go ahead and keep joking about this shit because that's what you people are, trolls on a message board.

[Long Duck Dong]

Nothing would surprise me at this point. There have been so many plot twists for this pandemic that my head is on a swivel. Now some reports are coming out saying ventilators are actually hurting COVID-19 victims and contributing towards their demise.

I know one thing. Nothing is bringing my friend back to life and I've never known anyone in good health in their early 40s to pass away from the flu.

[Long Duck Dong]

It would be interesting to see if a much more milder strain reached California via China first in November, and those people built up antibodies to deadlier mutated strains like the ones that affected NYC and Italy.

This book has just begun to be written. It will be very interesting looking back at things a year from now

[falc39]

Nothing would surprise me at this point. There have been so many plot twists for this pandemic that my head is on a swivel. Now some reports are coming out saying ventilators are actually hurting COVID-19 victims and contributing towards their demise.

I know one thing. Nothing is bringing my friend back to life and I've never known anyone in good health in their early 40s to pass away from the flu.

I think one thing we may be starting to realize is how hard it is to deal with a novel virus, especially one that is able to spread so quickly. It seems like there has been just too much blame spread all around, expecting governments and health professionals to figure this thing out so quickly and have a measured and effective response. This virus straddles the line- it isn’t extremely lethal, but it sure is complicated trying to figure out how to deal with it and minimize the damages. In reality, it just isn’t so simple. I keep seeing people blame the model. I work in a field where there is a lot of modeling. It is not easy. You need a lot of quality data and there are so many factors that needs to be accounted for, and the models themselves need constant tweaking so even when you do the best that you think you’ve done, it still could be way off. We still have difficulty predicting the weather a week out, for example. The best thing we can do right now is just take this as a learning experience and use it to be better prepared next time.

And for all the people who keep saying they were right, well good job- what do you want, a trophy? Maybe next time put your money into some short term trading stocks so you get something out of your predictive powers. There is still a lot unknown about this virus and the fact that we are already seeing a second wave in multiple countries and people testing positive again who have been confirmed to have had it already isn’t the best sign. This isn’t over yet and we obviously don’t know as much as we think we do.

[~primetime~]

first of all, if half the population shows no symptoms...and children are asymptomatic...but for everyone else it is still 10x stronger than flu and intensive care worthy...that means it is still stronger than flu

second...now suddenly CNN is credible source? most studies are showing 25%-30% asymptomatic....there is no way in fck 50X more people have it than previously thought

[ZenMaster]

I think one thing we may be starting to realize is how hard it is to deal with a novel virus, especially one that is able to spread so quickly. It seems like there has been just too much blame spread all around, expecting governments and health professionals to figure this thing out so quickly and have a measured and effective response. This virus straddles the line- it isnÂ’t extremely lethal, but it sure is complicated trying to figure out how to deal with it and minimize the damages. In reality, it just isnÂ’t so simple. I keep seeing people blame the model. I work in a field where there is a lot of modeling. It is not easy. You need a lot of quality data and there are so many factors that needs to be accounted for, and the models themselves need constant tweaking so even when you do the best that you think youÂ’ve done, it still could be way off. We still have difficulty predicting the weather a week out, for example. The best thing we can do right now is just take this as a learning experience and use it to be better prepared next time.


Pretty strongly disagree on this. As united people worldwide, we've kicked this things ass as much as you could hope for by now.
A couple of months ago we were so worried how it would like by now, millions or even tens of millions dead is what was feared, and here we are at 160K confirmed deaths worldwide.

How worried we were about the infection rate, well social distancing took care of that.
How worried we were about the fatality rate, social distancing took care of that as well, resulting in 99.9% of all hospitals NOT becoming overloaded. And now there are reports coming out of a lot more infected than "what we knew"(except a lot of us knew this was happening, because why wouldn't it, given the infection rate) and we're going to see very low mortality rates.

This is GREAT news.

It a shame that 3.4% mortality rate was peddled for a long time as being possible, "because we can only go with what we know", when it made no logical sense for it to be that high.

On another note, I was at the emergency room three days ago for my back, a private hospital nonetheless, but usually you still have quite a line in the waiting room. This time I got my insurance papers at the reception, went straight through the EM doors and looked to my right where there were two doctors and two nurses sitting around a table. One of the doctors got up immediately and asked "what can we do for you?" Got an appointment for an orthopedist the next day as well, and was offered a referral for a quick MRI at that consultation if I want it.
I don't mean to make light of the situation, but it was the best healthcare experience of my life and I wish it was always more or less like that. I hate the fact that people have to wait while they are hurting, and it's a shame that governments in so many countries do as much as possible to save in this area.
There should be double of everything, no it's not the effective, but it'll help people feel safe both in the short and long term, and it'll make them feel better as well.

[~primetime~]

the US has 37,000 covid deaths, and this thing just started up a few months ago...covid is currently the #1 cause of death in the country, ahead of heart disease, cancer, everything

influenza deaths for the 2019-20 season are probably already less than that...it is a given that covid will eclipse the flu in death numbers this year, and that is WITH a covid shutdown even...without a shutdown covid deaths would obliterate the flu in death numbers

[warriorfan]

You can claim fake news if you want it their study said otherwise.

[ZenMaster]

New York flu deaths last week: 143

New York flu deaths same week last year: 3342

wow

[~primetime~]

New York flu deaths last week: 143

New York flu deaths same week last year: 3342

wow

That's the shutdown then...I don't see how they could mistake the two, there are tests for both. Flu patients test positive for Flu-A or Flu-B. Covid patients tests positive for Covid19.

Also... last season was one of the worst flu seasons ever.

[FreezingTsmoove]

So far the liberals only excuse is that their old unhealthy family friends are dying or they dont want to overwhelm health care workers from doing their job... lets call it what it is. You lazy ****s just dont want to go back work

[ZenMaster]

That's the shutdown then...I don't see how they could mistake the two, there are tests for both. Flu patients test positive for Flu-A or Flu-B. Covid patients tests positive for Covid19.

Also... last season was one of the worst flu seasons ever.

1798 and 2219 last year and the year before.

It could only be what you say, part of it should be, but it could also be affected by the fact that if someone coughs or shows a fever before they die at home ,doctors are advised to classify the death to Covid19, without any test for Flu-A or Flu-B required, nor an actual Covid19 test.
This is significant considering the story about the NY paramedic, who were telling about the extra home deaths happening at this time. Said the relatives described many of the same symptoms, coughing, fever and trouble breathing. Same symptoms for influenza, and last year when this happened it would probably be classified as such without an autopsy.
Now there is this new virus, and it's a problem that we have to attribute it to all cases when part of them must still be from the regular flu, because the picture isn't clear of how dangerous it really is.
Yes, Covid19 is taking lives, but the regular flu is also still taking lives, and since everyone who's shown any symptoms(which coincide) to stay at home, then there'll also be more home deaths happening from people who didn't go to the hospital and thus never got tested for either.

It's definitely not all cases, but there has to be a lot of influenza being diagnosed as Covid19. That's a good thing by the way, it means we don't need to be as scared of corona as we where.

[RRR3]

People really laughing and joking about this??? :biggums: one of my closer friend's pops just passed away and he was in good health, had everything going for him financially and was taking care of a lot of people. And it was this virus, not some fkin flu.

Go ahead and keep joking about this shit because that's what you people are, trolls on a message board.
Sorry for your loss, man. My condolences to you and of course your friend and his family.

Trolls gonna troll. Can't fix stupid.

[DoctorP]

New York flu deaths last week: 143

New York flu deaths same week last year: 3342

wow

i seriously doubt 3300 people died from the flu in one week in nyc

[~primetime~]

So far the liberals only excuse is that their old unhealthy family friends are dying or they dont want to overwhelm health care workers from doing their job... lets call it what it is. You lazy ****s just dont want to go back work

Liberal excuse? You know this is Trump's doing right?

[ZenMaster]

i seriously doubt 3300 people died from the flu in one week in nyc

Yeah hold up, that's crazy, I take that back. :facepalm Can't delete my posts though. :( Meant total number of confirmed cases, not deaths.

[DoctorP]

Yeah hold up, that's crazy, I take that back. :facepalm Can't delete my posts though. :( Meant total number of confirmed cases, not deaths.

maybe it was 30?

the holocaust wasnt last year

[Patrick Chewing]

Liberal excuse? You know this is Trump's doing right?


Pardon me?

[~primetime~]

Yeah hold up, that's crazy, I take that back. :facepalm Can't delete my posts though. :( Meant total number of confirmed cases, not deaths.

The very first thing people do right now when they are ill is get tested to see if it is covid or influenza or strep. Most people who come down with something right now go in praying to test positive for flu and not covid.

The only way I can see lots of flu cases being marked as covid is if the person has both, which would be very rare, and very unfortunate.

[~primetime~]

Pardon me?

He's talking about the shutdown... that's on Trump

[bladefd]

New York flu deaths last week: 143

New York flu deaths same week last year: 3342

wow

That might actually show why shutdown works and how dangerous/contagious covid-19 is.

Flu numbers went down that much from shutdown. Even with a shutdown, covid-19 is still killing in tens of thousands.

Flu deaths with shutdown - 143
Flu deaths without shutdown - 3342 (apparently this is much lower from subsequent posts above but it still doesn't disprove my point)

Covid-19 with shutdown - gotta be couple thousand each week in ny
Makes me wonder how many would have died per week in ny from covid-19 with no shutdown at all whatsoever, schools/businesses all open

[falc39]

Pretty strongly disagree on this. As united people worldwide, we've kicked this things ass as much as you could hope for by now.
A couple of months ago we were so worried how it would like by now, millions or even tens of millions dead is what was feared, and here we are at 160K confirmed deaths worldwide.

How worried we were about the infection rate, well social distancing took care of that.
How worried we were about the fatality rate, social distancing took care of that as well, resulting in 99.9% of all hospitals NOT becoming overloaded. And now there are reports coming out of a lot more infected than "what we knew"(except a lot of us knew this was happening, because why wouldn't it, given the infection rate) and we're going to see very low mortality rates.

This is GREAT news.

It a shame that 3.4% mortality rate was peddled for a long time as being possible, "because we can only go with what we know", when it made no logical sense for it to be that high.

Projections of millions dying could really turn out to be bad data and that’s the challenge with dealing with something we don’t know much about. Using those projections as a baseline to determine if we collectively kicked its ass doesn’t seem that logical. The jury is still out on whether we did a great job. We don’t know what the true death rate is. We don’t even know if the known death rate is where it’s at because of actions we’ve taken or we simply projected wrong and overreacted. Social distancing may have been effective, but was it worth it? We really don’t know that yet either. It definitely came at a very high cost (socially and economically) and the effects may take years to play out. If we somehow come out of this only patting our back and mission accomplished, then that’s the true danger because nothing will change- it’s human nature.

[ZenMaster]

Projections of millions dying could really turn out to be bad data and that’s the challenge with dealing with something we don’t know much about. Using those projections as a baseline to determine if we collectively kicked its ass doesn’t seem that logical. The jury is still out on whether we did a great job. We don’t know what the true death rate is. We don’t even know if the known death rate is where it’s at because of actions we’ve taken or we simply projected wrong and overreacted. Social distancing may have been effective, but was it worth it? We really don’t know that yet either. It definitely came at a very high cost (socially and economically) and the effects may take years to play out. If we somehow come out of this only patting our back and mission accomplished, then that’s the true danger because nothing will change- it’s human nature.

Oh I agree with most of this, but your previous post that I responded to, I felt sounded much different in opinion and tone.

[Long Duck Dong]

USC and LA Department of Public Health reporting up to nearly half a million people in LA County could have antibodies for COVID-19. That's 4.1% of the population.


USC and the health department released preliminary study results that found that an estimated 4.1% of the county's adult population has antibodies to the coronavirus, estimating that between 221,000 adults to 442,000 adults in the county have had the infection.

This new estimate is 28 to 55 times higher than the 7,994 confirmed cases of Covid-19 reported to the county through early April. The number of coronavirus-related deaths in the county has now surpassed 600, according to the Department of Public Health. The data, if correct, would mean that the county's fatality rate is lower than originally thought.


https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/20/coronavirus-antibody-testing-shows-la-county-outbreak-is-up-to-55-times-bigger-than-reported-cases.html

[tpols]

^

well that tilts things either one of two ways.

1) the death rate on this is similar to a common cold.

or

2) it's just another bullshit study. Like when they claimed 25 million cases and ended up with 25k.


Either way... how the hell are you still falling for this? They've clearly been off on all of their "studies" and projections" by MASSIVE orders of magnitude. And yet... we still hear people giving them credibility. It's almost like people are infatuated with the panic. They like it. Gives some excitement to their lives outside venturing out to Walmart.

[rawimpact]

^

well that tilts things either one of two ways.

1) the death rate on this is similar to a common cold.

or

2) it's just another bullshit study. Like when they claimed 25 million cases and ended up with 25k.


Either way... how the hell are you still falling for this? They've clearly been off on all of their "studies" and projections" by MASSIVE orders of magnitude. And yet... we still hear people giving them credibility. It's almost like people are infatuated with the panic. They like it. Gives some excitement to their lives outside venturing out to Walmart.

The sensitivity of this test is still up for question no?

[Cleverness]

USC and LA Department of Public Health reporting up to nearly half a million people in LA County could have antibodies for COVID-19. That's 4.1% of the population.



https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/20/coronavirus-antibody-testing-shows-la-county-outbreak-is-up-to-55-times-bigger-than-reported-cases.html

yup.

fatality rate on par with flu

spreads hella easily. maybe a 2 year lockdown would help prevent the spread, but jfc let's get real

curve has been flattened like a pancake

let's allow people to support their families again

[MaxFly]

well that tilts things either one of two ways.

1) the death rate on this is similar to a common cold.

or

2) it's just another bullshit study. Like when they claimed 25 million cases and ended up with 25k.



Even if the numbers are accurate and many more people are proven to have contracted COVID-19, the average American gets 2 to 3 colds a year... hundreds of millions of people, and many with strong immune systems who hardly get sick or display symptoms. The death rate of COVID-19 is not comparable to the death rate of the common cold.

[MaxFly]

yup.

fatality rate on par with flu


45,000 people in the US have died in the last month from this, and that's with pretty extensive lockdowns across the country. I don't know, man... when was the last time 45,000 people died from the flu in a month in spite of extensive lockdowns?

[Lakers Legend#32]

Trump won't give a sh!t.

[Cleverness]

45,000 people in the US have died in the last month from this, and that's with pretty extensive lockdowns across the country. I don't know, man... when was the last time 45,000 people died from the flu in a month in spite of extensive lockdowns?

That's a good take. Btw we have a flu vaccine, so I imagine without the vaccine the flu would be... a lot more deadlier than COVID-19?

If someone dies with flu-like symptoms or suspected to have the flu, do doctors always classify it as a flu death?
Same with colds/rhinoviruses. Do doctors always say the patient died of a cold/virus if they had one when they died?

I am still skeptical about how deaths are classified. We naturally want to take the simple approach and say "Jim died from x." Kobe died because the helicopter crashed. Paul Walker died because of a car accident. Robin Williams died from suicide. Heath Ledger died from drug overdose. Amy Winehouse died from alcohol poisoning.

But when elderly stage 4 CHF w/ COPD smokers die... "they died from COVID-19" if they tested positive or had sxs of COVID-19 upon death? (Not CHF or COPD??)

And still nobody mentions # of healthy life years lost (DALYs) which should be an important factor too, right?

[SATAN]

You could have said "I'm a clueless idiot" in far less words.

[Cleverness]

You could have said "I'm a clueless idiot" in far less words.

That's your job.

[SATAN]

Cleverness is a clueless idiot.

[MaxFly]

That's a good take. Btw we have a flu vaccine, so I imagine without the vaccine the flu would be... a lot more deadlier than COVID-19?


So you're in agreement that this novel coronavirus is more dangerous right now because we don't have a vaccine and we don't have proven medications to address it like we do with the seasonal flu?


If someone dies with flu-like symptoms or suspected to have the flu, do doctors always classify it as a flu death?
Same with colds/rhinoviruses. Do doctors always say the patient died of a cold/virus if they had one when they died?

I am still skeptical about how deaths are classified. We naturally want to take the simple approach and say "Jim died from x." Kobe died because the helicopter crashed. Paul Walker died because of a car accident. Robin Williams died from suicide. Heath Ledger died from drug overdose. Amy Winehouse died from alcohol poisoning.

But when elderly stage 4 CHF w/ COPD smokers die... "they died from COVID-19" if they tested positive or had sxs of COVID-19 upon death? (Not CHF or COPD??)

From what I've understood, doctors are being careful to specify all comorbidities that may have resulted in an individual's death, and are reporting deaths as due to COVID-19 when the virus exacerbates a condition that would not have normally resulted in death for a patient. So someone who has asthma that they have successfully managed for years, and is admitted to a hospital with serious symptoms of COVID-19, would likely be marked as a COVID death if doctors determined that their asthma somehow contributed to their already difficult and labored breathing as a result of pneumonia that arose from COVID-19.


And still nobody mentions # of healthy life years lost (DALYs) which should be an important factor too, right?

Should be a factor in what, exactly? If a person's death from COVID-19 really counts?

[bladefd]

That's a good take. Btw we have a flu vaccine, so I imagine without the vaccine the flu would be... a lot more deadlier than COVID-19?

If someone dies with flu-like symptoms or suspected to have the flu, do doctors always classify it as a flu death?
Same with colds/rhinoviruses. Do doctors always say the patient died of a cold/virus if they had one when they died?

I am still skeptical about how deaths are classified. We naturally want to take the simple approach and say "Jim died from x." Kobe died because the helicopter crashed. Paul Walker died because of a car accident. Robin Williams died from suicide. Heath Ledger died from drug overdose. Amy Winehouse died from alcohol poisoning.

But when elderly stage 4 CHF w/ COPD smokers die... "they died from COVID-19" if they tested positive or had sxs of COVID-19 upon death? (Not CHF or COPD??)

And still nobody mentions # of healthy life years lost (DALYs) which should be an important factor too, right?

Flu would certainly be worse than it is with no vaccines, no treatment, no antiviral, no natural antibody from multiple bouts of exposure. Would it be deadlier than covid-19? Hard to say. It's certainly possible.

I highly doubt the common cold would be worse than covid-19. We don't vaccinate from colds. We don't use antivirals for colds afaik. We do have natural antibody to colds though..

We have treatment options for CHF. COPD too. Lots of people obviously still die from both yearly. In your case though, it depends on whether the patient's CHF/COPD was stable from meds or something and then they got COVID-19 with symptoms that put them over the top. If CHF/COPD were stabilized over years and they died after getting covid-19, they died DUE TO COVID-19..