Prime Production of Top All-Time NBA Players

[Roundball_Rock]

There was a discussion this week that indicated many people had no clue what prime production of past players actually was. That prompted this thread so people can get a tangible idea of what these players were actually doing in their primes.

Prime Production

Kareem 70’-80’: 28/14/5
Jordan 87’-98’: 32/6/5
LeBron 06’-16’: 28/7/7
Wilt 60’-67’: 38/25/4
Shaq 94’-03’: 28/12/3
Kobe 01’-13’: 28/6/5
Magic 81’-91’: 20/7/12
Bird 80’-88’: 25/10/6
Duncan 98’-07’: 22/12/3
Hakeem 86’-96’: 25/12/3
Russell 58’-65’: 17/24/4

A caveat is it was not possible to develop an objective definition of "prime." I thought of using the first and last all-NBA second team or higher season, or the first and last top 5 MVP voting, as proxies but that would cover 85% of Kareem's career and be unfair for him as his averages would be dragged down by his unparalleled longevity.

When in doubt, I excluded a player's rookie year. For several their rookie years are included but that is because in their cases their rookie production was consistent with what they did in the years that immediately followed.

I did not list FG %, blocks, or steals for presentation purposes. The numbers are harder to read/follow if it has too much data. Moreover, blocks, steals were not recorded at all when Wilt, Russell played and also did not exist for the first couple years Kareem played.

Kobe was a player who gave me pause due to the long window but he was basically doing in 2013 what he was in 2001 so instead of arbitrarily cutting off I just included that entire period.

Another player worth mentioning is Giannis. I considered including him as a representative from today's era. However, the sample size of three dominant seasons is too small at this point. FWIW, his averages are 28/12/6 from 18'-20'. So basically prime Shaq numbers with double the assists.

[warriorfan]

Kevin Love (2011 - 2014) : 26 / 13 / 3

[Roundball_Rock]

Kevin Love (2011 - 2014) : 26 / 13 / 3

That is a good example of why you need a larger sample size to compare with the legends listed in the OP. There is a difference between doing it for 2-3 years, especially on a bad team, and doing it consistently over an extended period on contenders. Giannis meets the standard of doing it on a contender but does not have sufficient longevity yet.

[warriorfan]

That is a good example of why you need a larger sample size to compare with the legends listed in the OP. There is a difference between doing it for 2-3 years, especially on a bad team, and doing it consistently over an extended period on contenders. Giannis meets the standard of doing it on a contender but does not have sufficient longevity yet.

Prime cut tragically short due to bran ball. Tough break.

[Roundball_Rock]

It was a factor, as was going from a lottery team to a contender, but Love also has struggled since LeBron left. What is the explanation for that?

[iamgine]

How bout playoff prime?

[Roundball_Rock]

How bout playoff prime?

Great question. I should have included in the OP!

Playoff Prime Production

Kareem 70’-80’: 30/16/4
Jordan 87’-98’: 33/7/6
LeBron 06’-16’: 28/9/7
Wilt 60’-67’: 30/27/5
Shaq 94’-03’: 28/13/3
Kobe 01’-12’: 29/5/5
Magic 81’-91’: 20/7/13
Bird 80’-88’: 25/11/6
Duncan 98’-07’: 24/13/4
Hakeem 86’-96’: 28/12/4
Russell 58’-65’: 18/26/4

[StrongLurk]

Did OP really leave out 2017 and 2018 Lebron James? The guy who put up 33.5/9.1/8.5/1.6/1.2 on 55/38/73 (40 playoff games).

Just...wow really?

[LeCroix]

Did OP really leave out 2017 and 2018 Lebron James? The guy who put up 33.5/9.1/8.5/1.6/1.2 on 55/38/73 (40 playoff games).

Just...wow really?

Yeah i put an agremeent to this, dont take his god tier year out that is unfair to his production results

[WhiteKyrie]

It was a factor, as was going from a lottery team to a contender, but Love also has struggled since LeBron left. What is the explanation for that?
3 for 9 Bran ball wrecked his confidence. Struggles with apparently depression because of so ...

Also his playing style has been phased out of the league, and he’s also well past his physical prime now. He also played in 22 games in 2019. So umm he was injured?

This year he was averaging 18/10 on 45% with literal gutter trash NBA wise around him.

Your closeted Bronsexuality is very apparent.

[3ball]

MJ's prime was 88-93'

No one comes close to this prime

And no one is close to the Jordan's 35/7/7 playoff averages from 85-93' (thru 3 rings)... Lebron is only at 27/7/7 thru 3 rings (8 less points with equal assists)

[LeCroix]

MJ's prime was 88-93'

No one comes close to this prime

And no one is close to the Jordan's 35/7/7 playoff averages from 85-93' (thru 3 rings)... Lebron is only at 27/7/7 thru 3 rings (8 less points with equal assists)

Side bar questioning

Do we factor the people who are going to defend them?

Example secnario A

96 MJ guarded by Kawhi or Starks?
18 LBJ guarded by Kawhi or Starks

And so forth

[Ronin45]

When on earth was Jordan in 96-98 at 33, 34, 35 years old considered “in his prime”?! :oldlol:

More like 1987 - 1993. Aged 24 - 30
33 ppg 6 rpg 6 apg on 52%

Playoff Averages of:
35 ppg 7 rpg 7 apg on 50%

Especially given competition faced, this is easily the greatest player of all time

[3ball]

Side bar questioning

Do we factor the people who are going to defend them?

Example secnario A

96 MJ guarded by Kawhi or Starks?
18 LBJ guarded by Kawhi or Starks

And so forth

MJ was guarded by Rodman, Drexler and Payton, so those are better options than Starks

[kuniva_dAMiGhTy]

When on earth was Jordan in 96-98 at 33, 34, 35 years old considered “in his prime”?! :oldlol:

More like 1987 - 1993. Aged 24 - 30
33 ppg 6 rpg 6 apg on 52%

Playoff Averages of:
35 ppg 7 rpg 7 apg on 50%

Especially given competition faced, this is easily the greatest player of all time

1996 was still Mike's prime imo. He played at a level to earn that proclamation. Still athletic as hell. As strong or stronger than ever, and just a great all-around year. Playoff run included.

We saw a decline in athletic ability going back to 93, which was his peak. And he gradually descended every year afterward.

[Ronin45]

MJ was guarded by Rodman, Drexler and Payton, so those are better options than Starks
The ESPN reporter in the documentary said Pistons Rodman was the greatest on ball defender ever.

Gary Payton, the Glove is second best when removing Mike, Scottie and Kobe.

And then there’s also Dumars, Dennis Johnson, and 2 time DPOY Sidney Moncrief all guarding GOAT Jordan. He faced amazing all timer on ball defenders in a more physical league.


1996 was still Mike's prime imo. He played at a level to earn that proclamation. Still athletic as hell. As strong or stronger than ever, and just a great all-around year. Playoff run included.

We saw a decline in athletic ability going back to 93, which was his peak. And he gradually descended every year afterward.
But no sane person is considering 34 and 35 year old Jordan prime Mike.

[kuniva_dAMiGhTy]

The ESPN reporter in the documentary said Pistons Rodman was the greatest on ball defender ever.

Gary Payton, the Glove is second best when removing Mike, Scottie and Kobe.

And then there’s also Dumars, Dennis Johnson, and 2 time DPOY Sidney Moncrief all guarding GOAT Jordan. He faced amazing all timer on ball defenders in a more physical league.


But no sane person is considering 34 and 35 year old Jordan prime Mike.

True.

97 Jordan is a reach. 98 Jordan is just FLAT OUT wrong. Apart from that and not including Bron's 18 run, OP's list is fair.

[Roundball_Rock]

Did OP really leave out 2017 and 2018 Lebron James? The guy who put up 33.5/9.1/8.5/1.6/1.2 on 55/38/73 (40 playoff games).

Just...wow really?

His defense had declined by then and many people thought Durant had surpassed him by that point. Let's tack those years on, though:

LeBron 06’-16’: 28/9/7
LeBron 06’-18’: 29/9/7

So his scoring goes up 1 point.


When on earth was Jordan in 96-98 at 33, 34, 35 years old considered “in his prime”?!

You mean the years he was 1st, 2nd, 1st in MVP (as a comparison, he was 1st, 1st, 3rd during the first threepeat)? :lol They are there for the same reason Kareem's run goes up to 1980 and LeBron's 2016. If I parsed it further it would be totally subjective. On what basis do I declare his prime ended in 1993 or Kareem's ended in 1977? They were still the consensus #1 players.

Jordan from 1991-1993: 31/6/6
Jordan from 1996-1998: 30/6/4

Not an Earth shattering difference, with the scoring decrease being a product of a slower pace.

[3ball]

His defense had declined by then and many people thought Durant had surpassed him by that point. Let's tack those years on, though:

LeBron 06’-16’: 28/9/7
LeBron 06’-18’: 29/9/7

So his scoring goes up 1 point.



You mean the years he was 1st, 2nd, 1st in MVP (as a comparison, he was 1st, 1st, 3rd during the first threepeat)? :lol They are there for the same reason Kareem's run goes up to 1980 and LeBron's 2016. If I parsed it further it would be totally subjective. On what basis do I declare his prime ended in 1993 or Kareem's ended in 1977?

Jordan from 1991-1993: 31/6/6
Jordan from 1996-1998: 30/6/4

Not an Earth shattering difference, with the scoring decrease being a product of a slower pace.

Jordan averaged 33.7 in the 91-93' Playoffs, not 31... And 6.6 apg (same as lebron thru 3 rings each)

[Roundball_Rock]

Jordan averaged 33.7 in the 91-93' Playoffs, not 31

What I listed are RS numbers.


97 Jordan is a reach. 98 Jordan is just FLAT OUT wrong. Apart from that and not including Bron's 18 run, OP's list is fair.

How do I wave a wand and determine to cut the prime off at 96'? His production in 98' was the same as 96'. That is the problem with doing these. You have to apply the same type of standards to all the players for the exercise to have any value. If I pick and choose, irrespective of their production, you get into the risk of manipulating the data. If I cherry picked Kareem or Wilt's 4-5 best years you get a completely different picture.

The OP is to capture how they played while "themselves" and to get a large sample size.

The LeBron pushback is interesting. I thought if I included 2017 and 2018, when LeBron was no longer the consensus best player, I would get hit from LeBron fans for doing so. Instead they want that to be included because it is favorable (although doesn't change his averages, other than 1 extra PPG). If so, might as well include 2004, 2005, 2019 and 2020, right? There isn't any rationale to include 2017 and 2018 that would not also apply to those other years.

The impetus was idiots who were saying LeBron and MJ crush Kareem's prime. Any way you slice it, Kareem's prime numbers stand up to anyone outside of Wilt's.

[LeCroix]

Jordan averaged 33.7 in the 91-93' Playoffs, not 31... And 6.6 apg (same as lebron thru 3 rings each)

I think I can gooogle to see lbj has more totals in all categories in playoffs over michael tho. So that counts

[3ball]

I think I can gooogle to see lbj has more totals in all categories in playoffs over michael tho. So that counts

But MJ produced more per game, aka 5 more points on better efficiency per possession

There's never been a player that averaged 5 more points on better efficiency that wasn't considered the better player.. easily

In addition to 5 more points, MJ averaged equal assists thru 3 rings each (85-93' playoffs vs 06-16' playoffs) and played better defense (always held his man down)

[Ronin45]

I think I can gooogle to see lbj has more totals in all categories in playoffs over michael tho. So that counts
In more games, so, ok?

[Roundball_Rock]

But MJ produced more per game, aka 5 more points on better efficiency per possession

LeBron's peak net on/off is ahead of MJ's peak:

https://backpicks.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/Jordan-v-GOAT-on-off-results-91-93-50g.png

[3ball]

LeBron's peak net on/off is ahead of MJ's peak:

https://backpicks.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/Jordan-v-GOAT-on-off-results-91-93-50g.png

We don't have MJ's on-off prior to 1997

So I don't know where backpicks got a lot of it's data - it appears to have a lot of real data mixed in with a bunch of fake data.. I guess that's why the study isn't backed by major media

[kuniva_dAMiGhTy]

What I listed are RS numbers.



How do I wave a wand and determine to cut the prime off at 96'? His production in 98' was the same as 96'. That is the problem with doing these. You have to apply the same type of standards to all the players. If I pick and choose, irrespective of their production, you get into the same where you can manipulate the data. If I cherry picked Kareem or Wilt's 4-5 best years you get a completely different picture. The OP is to capture how they played while "themselves" and to get a large sample size.

The LeBron pushback is interesting. I thought if I included 2017 and 2018, when LeBron was no longer the consensus best player, I would get hit from LeBron fans for doing so. Instead they want that to be included. If so, might as well include 2004 and 2005, right?

The impetus was idiots who were saying LeBron and MJ crush Kareem's prime. Any way you slice it, Kareem's prime numbers stand up to anyone outside of Wilt's.

Don't think you would need a "wand" to determine that. Just watch the games, bud.

Mike was still productive but lost a step in 97. Less explosion and dragged/looked clunkier in-game. Not only did he have less 40 point games, but Jordan also had the WORST series of his career. Against Miami.

It wasn't some significant dropoff, but noticeable to those watching. And that's despite what his production tells you with hindsight.

I think your list by and large is a good one. Some arguable years, but you wont please everyone.

[Roundball_Rock]

Don't think you would need a "wand" to determine that. Just watch the games, bud.

For MJ, sure--but you saw me do that with LeBron (making the cut-off when he no longer was consensus #1) and get hit by LeBron fans for excluding LeBron's version of the same stage of his career as MJ. :oldlol:

What I meant is if I didn't have a consistent criteria it would ruin the exercise. If we are going by strict prime definitions then MJ's prime ended in 93'. You say 96', I say 93'. When did it start? 87'? That was his first MVP level season. 89'? That is what another poster identified. You run into all these problems with modern players. It is even more difficult for Wilt or Russell.

The OP attempts to apply a consistent criteria for all the players, often numbers driven. When the numbers fell off that was a signal in the data.


Some arguable years, but you wont please everyone.

Isn't that the truth :lol . I knew that going in, though. I just wanted to have a list that was defensible. The irony is the two complaints are the inverse: LeBron fans want to include some later years because they want to smuggle in some favorable playoff years; MJ fans want to exclude 97' and 98' because he had declined.

There aren't KAJ fans here but if there were, the same logic for MJ could be applied to cut KAJ's prime off at 1977, not 1980.

The key is the numbers don't materially change if you add or subtract a year or two because the existing sample size is large. I originally wanted to do a second list of "peak" years but that is even more vexing then doing "prime" years.

Ultimately KAJ was the one who screwed this thing up. I couldn't go by all-NBA or MVP contention because that would encompass 85% of his career.