LeBron, Jordan, Kareem Teams/Competition Compared by SRS [Archive] - Message Board Basketball Forum

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Roundball_Rock

05-09-2020, 11:09 AM

Whenever these players come up the “help” they had is contested. However, you never see those teams actually being measured against their competition. It usually is name checking stars or comparing rosters across eras, not the teams they actually faced.

Here I used all the years MJ, LeBron made the ECF or finals. For KAJ I used his finals runs through the 85’ season and his WCFs in the 70’s. The KAJ sample size here is comparable to the others. He made 14 conference finals so you get the point at some point.

SRS Team Ranks

Jordan: 10th, 9th, 1st, 1st, 4th, 1st, 1st, 1st
LeBron: 7th,1st, 1st, 4th, 2nd, 7th, 6th, 4th, 7th, 14th
Kareem: 2nd, 1st, 2nd, 1st, 5th, 2nd, 4th, 3rd, 5th, 2nd

This was fascinating. All three are accused of being on “super teams.” Reach your own conclusion.

Chicago

1989: Pistons 6.2, Bulls 2.1.
1990: Pistons 5.4, Bulls 2.7.
1991: Bulls 8.6, Pistons 3.1, Lakers 6.7.
1992: Bulls 10.1, Cavs 5.3, Blazers 6.9.
1993: Bulls 6.2, Knicks 5.9, Suns 6.3.
1996: Bulls 11.8, Magic 5.4, Sonics 7.4.
1997: Bulls 10.7, Heat 5.6, Jazz 8.0.
1998: Bulls 7.2, Pacers 6.3, Jazz 5.7.

ECF differentials: -4.1, -2.7, +5.5, +4.8, +0.3, +6.4, +5.1, +0.9.
Finals differentials: +2.1, +3.2, -0.1, +4.4, +2.7, +1.5

Cleveland/Miami

2007: Pistons 3.7, Cavs 3.3, Spurs 8.4
2009: Cavs 8.7, Magic 6.5
2011: Heat 6.8, Bulls 6.5, Mavs 4.4
2012: Heat 5.7, Celtics 2.3, Thunder 6.4
2013: Heat 7.0, Pacers 3.3, Spurs 6.7
2014: Heat 4.2, Pacers 3.6, Spurs 8.0
2015: Cavs 4.1, Hawks 4.8, Warriors 10.0
2016: Cavs 5.5, Raptors 4.1, Warriors 10.4
2017: Cavs 2.9, Celtics 2.3, Warriors 11.4
2018: Cavs 0.6, Celtics 3.3, Warriors 5.8

ECF differentials: -0.4, +2.2, +0.3, +3.4, +3.7, +0.8, -0.7, +1.4, +0.6, -2.7
Finals differentials: -5.1, +2.4, -0.7, +0.3, -3.8, -5.9, -4.9, -8.5, -5.2

LeBron’s teams often were big underdogs in the finals as he played against, not on, dynasties. For perspective on “-8.5”, the difference between the 20’ Lakers and 20’ Suns is 8.9. In 19’ the gap between the Warriors and the 19’ Grizzlies is 8.5.

In the ECF his teams usually had an edge but not always.

Milwaukee/Los Angeles

1970: Bucks 4.3, Knicks 8.4
1971: Bucks 11.9, Lakers 3.3, Bullets 0.9
1972: Bucks 10.7, Lakers 11.7
1974: Bucks 7.6, Bulls 3.2, Celtics 3.4
1977: Lakers 2.6, Blazers 5.4
1980: Lakers 5.4, Sonics 4.2, Sixers 4.0
1982: Lakers 4.4, Spurs 1.8, Sixers 5.7
1983: Lakers 5.1, Spurs 3.1, Sixers 7.5
1984: Lakers 3.3, Suns 0.7, Celtics 6.4
1985: Lakers 6.5, Nuggets 2.1, Celtics 6.5

WCF differentials: -4.1, +8.6, -1.0, +4.4, -2.8, +1.2, +2.6, +2.0, +2.6, +4.4
Finals differentials: +10.0, +4.2, +1.4, -1.3, -2.4, -3.1, =0

Finals Differentials

Kareem: +10.0, +4.2, +1.4, -1.3, -2.4, -3.1, =0
Jordan: +2.1, +3.2, -0.1, +4.4, +2.7, +1.5
LeBron: -5.1, +2.4, -0.7, +0.3, -3.8, -5.9, -4.9, -8.5, -5.2

ECF/WCF Differentials

Kareem: -4.1, +8.6, -1.0, +4.4, -2.8, +1.2, +2.6, +2.0, +2.6, +4.4
LeBron: -0.4, +2.2, +0.3, +3.4, +3.7, +0.8, -0.7, +1.4, +0.6, -2.7
Jordan: -4.1, -2.7, +5.5, +4.8, +0.3, +6.4, +5.1, +0.9

Roundball_Rock

05-09-2020, 11:09 AM

What do these various numbers mean? Here are the SRS for teams this year for some context on what various gaps equate to.

Bucks 10.9 2) Lakers 7.8 3) Clippers 6.7 4) Raptors 5.9 5) Mavericks 5.8 6) Celtics 5.7 7) Rockets 3.8 8) Utah 3.2 9) Denver 3.0 10) Thunder 2.8 15) Magic -0.9 30) Warriors -7.9

SRS* is not perfect (its reliance on point differentials means a team that suffered a key injury and sucked temporarily will be artificially deflated, for example) but it is one metric to compare teams. We can do the same analysis with win totals, all-NBA players, HOF players. To be frank, though, all of these things will show the same trends since they are inter-connected.

*Simple Rating System (SRS); a team rating that takes into account average point differential and strength of schedule.

The rating is denominated in points above/below average, where zero is average. More information about calcution of SRS.

LAmbruh

05-09-2020, 11:27 AM

good shit, bookmarked :cheers:

5*

ArbitraryWater

05-09-2020, 11:36 AM

quality shit, only for the most sincere and honest ball fans

bookmarked

ELITEpower23

05-09-2020, 12:05 PM

Quality, well-articulated thread content with astounding deliverables on a level of excellence we rarely see on the internet these days.

Bookmarked.

Stanley Kobrick

05-09-2020, 12:46 PM

very good post, we need more users like this

warriorfan

05-09-2020, 01:05 PM

https://media.tenor.com/images/d6eb7c160a0b5a313fa495d38da1fdf3/tenor.gif

:lol

LostCause

05-09-2020, 02:58 PM

I must say I am glad you learned a bit from the numerous lectures I've given over the past few weeks

That said SRS is a cool tool for a surface level analysis but a much deeper analysis was recently done for MJ/LeBron's playoff competition on Reddit. Links to both parts:
https://www.reddit.com/r/nba/comments/g8iphv/oc_jordan_v_lebron_has_lebron_actually_played/
https://www.reddit.com/r/nba/comments/g95h4i/oc_jordan_v_lebron_has_lebron_actually_played/

Here's his Overall Analysis & Final Verdict, quoted (I'll post the relevant images below this post)

OVERALL ANALYSIS

LeBron has played the underdog for the majority of his career when it comes to facing elite teams. Jordan’s Finals winning teams were almost always better than the competition they faced, but they also faced competition that was usually equal to, and in a few cases better, than LeBron’s competition. Skill level of the teams surrounding Jordan and LeBron then comes into question (and is likely in Jordan's favor by a good amount), and it is a factor that I'm still working on quantifying (stay tuned).

There also comes the subject of LeBron’s series losses. Ultimately, you can’t hold it against LeBron that he’s had the bad luck of playing against some of the greatest teams ever. However, I do find it egregious the degree to which his teams have been beaten in some series. Even in Jordan’s second season, when the Bulls were still very much the “cocaine Bulls,” they still kept their series with the 86 Celtics closer than LeBron’s losses to both the 14 Spurs and 18 Warriors—and Jordan’s Bulls were unarguably a worse supporting cast around him at the time.

In my view, the only bad loss in Jordan's career comes at the hands of the 1988 Bad Boy Pistons, who graded out very similarly to the 1988 Bulls but manhandled them pretty thoroughly. At the time, Jordan and his teammates were young and inexperienced while those Pistons teams were on the verge of their watershed moment after having fought Bird's Celtics in the East for years.

Finally, LeBron has lost 3 series in which his team was better in the regular season: the 2009 ECF against the Magic, 2010 ECSF against the Celtics, and 2011 Finals against the Mavericks. Against the Mavericks, he turned in what is likely the worst performance ever by a Top-5 all-time player in any Finals series. He has done much to repair his reputation as a postseason performer in the years since, but the fact of the matter is that players in his echelon simply don't have series that bad, and it is something that should remain in the discussion when trying to pinpoint LeBron's place in the NBA pantheon.

The air is rare up here, and the only way to really distinguish between the greatest players ever is to examine anything that can offer a difference between otherwise identical résumés.
Final Verdict

LeBron has faced tougher competition, but his opponents have not been overwhelmingly better than Jordan's, contrary to popular belief—there should be more nuance to the discussion than simply saying "Jordan lost earlier in the playoffs more often," as Jordan had to play teams on par with LeBron's Finals opponents early in the playoffs due to the strength of the Eastern Conference in the 1980s. While LeBron has more impressive wins than Jordan, Jordan never lost a series in which his Bulls were the favorite, while LeBron has lost three.

LostCause

05-09-2020, 02:59 PM

LeCroix

05-09-2020, 03:31 PM

Relevant Images:
Comparing their own teams (https://i.ibb.co/ykvLgMZ/krvx9yxxcev41.png)
First Round Opponents (https://i.ibb.co/nbMq1ry/pwd14vl877v41.png)
SemiFinals Opponents (https://i.ibb.co/vV6GdWm/k00conje87v41.png)
Conference Finals Opponents (https://i.ibb.co/Nxr5RR0/qr2pjzdc77v41.png)
Finals Opponents (https://i.ibb.co/chDmmfN/cf3wqgbndev41.png)
Series Wins (https://i.ibb.co/w0dJSW8/ev83kpz0dev41.png)
Series Losses (https://i.ibb.co/n105g3B/f8gvb53zcev41.png)
Toughest Competition (https://i.ibb.co/tLmqVYw/6uamlhx1cev41.png)

Enjoy folks!

EDIT: As an added bonus, I'll post the strength of conference chart that was posted there. Again, it's all found in the Reddit link but since some folks are lazy

Conferences during Jordans career (https://i.ibb.co/tJbbhLL/kvyboq9t67v41.png)
Conferences during LeBrons career (https://i.ibb.co/zPYsncm/ljfolvzt67v41.png)

but if we really talking about srs top teams lebron faced the toughest gauntlet of teams ever. he played in the toughest moment of basketball

look at the the best top 30 SRS teams LeBorn faced way more

lebron went against...
2017 Warriors = 4th
2016 Warriors = 7th
2015 Warriors = 10th
2008 Celtics = 11th
2007 Spurs = 23rd
2014 Spurs = 30th

Jordan went against...
1986 Celtics = 13th

lebron faced 6 of the top 30 best srs teams ever and michael faced one. srs is not a topic to discuss :lol

LostCause

05-09-2020, 03:34 PM

but if we really talking about srs top teams lebron faced the toughest gauntlet of teams ever. he played in the toughest moment of basketball

look at the the best top 30 SRS teams LeBorn faced way more

lebron went against...
2017 Warriors = 4th
2016 Warriors = 7th
2015 Warriors = 10th
2008 Celtics = 11th
2007 Spurs = 23rd
2014 Spurs = 30th

Jordan went against...
1986 Celtics = 13th

lebron faced 6 of the top 30 best srs teams ever and michael faced one. srs is not a topic to discuss :lol

My post had little to do with SRS

LeCroix

05-09-2020, 03:40 PM

https://media.tenor.com/images/d6eb7c160a0b5a313fa495d38da1fdf3/tenor.gif

calm down

HBK_Kliq_2

05-09-2020, 03:41 PM

Kareem should be taken out of this argument, the SRS was exaggerated back than because there wasn't enough competition before the ABA merger. Kareem was also arguably not the best player on his team for 4-5 of those rings.

warriorfan

05-09-2020, 03:54 PM

https://media.tenor.com/images/d6eb7c160a0b5a313fa495d38da1fdf3/tenor.gif

:lol

Roundball_Rock

05-09-2020, 05:52 PM

:cheers: guys.

the SRS was exaggerated back than

Not relevant to the OP since the OP compared their teams with their finals, conference finals opponents and posted their rankings against the league at the time.

All that said, SRS has been boosted in modern times, as have win totals, because of expansion to 29-30 teams.