Roundball_Rock
05-11-2020, 07:25 PM
A frequent talking point that comes up in a variety of contexts is "50 win" and "60 win" teams. I would look at standings and data for various years and had the hunch that wins were inflated over time due to expansion. So I looked at the number of 50+, 60+ win teams to see if there was anything to this.
I also looked at how many wins the third best team in the conference had (third most wins, not necessarily the 3 seed). The third best team is a good proxy because that removes outlier 1 seeds and still allows us to measure what usually is a legitimate contender. Here are the top line numbers.
Average 50+ and 60+ Win Teams by Decade
2010's: 1.6 60+, 8.4 50+
2000's: 1.5 60+, 8.2 50+
1990's: 2.1, 60+, 8.7 50+
1980's: 1.5 60+, 6.0 50+
1970's: 0.9 60+, 3.4 50+
1960's: 0.5 60+, 2.3 50+
So as the league expanded the number of 60+ and 50+ teams increased. There was a big jump in the 80's and then yet another in the 90's. Since 1996 only 1 team has been added so the numbers have been steady this century.
Average Win Totals of Third Best Team in Conference
2010's: 54 West, 51 East
2000's: 56 West, 50 East
1990's: 57 West, 53 East
1980's: 50 West, 53 East
1970's: 48 West, 47 East
So we see the same trend here. There is an increase in the 80's and then another leap in the 90's that remains steady in the ensuing two decades.
It also is notable how the West consistently has the upper hand, contrary to the popular belief that this is a new phenomenon.
(In the 60's there were so few teams the exercise would be futile.)
My big takeaway from this is we can't legitimately compare win totals and SRS (which uses win totals plus point differential) across eras because of the win inflation in recent decades. The 90's particularly had the most wins because that is when the last wave of expansion concluded.
I also looked at how many wins the third best team in the conference had (third most wins, not necessarily the 3 seed). The third best team is a good proxy because that removes outlier 1 seeds and still allows us to measure what usually is a legitimate contender. Here are the top line numbers.
Average 50+ and 60+ Win Teams by Decade
2010's: 1.6 60+, 8.4 50+
2000's: 1.5 60+, 8.2 50+
1990's: 2.1, 60+, 8.7 50+
1980's: 1.5 60+, 6.0 50+
1970's: 0.9 60+, 3.4 50+
1960's: 0.5 60+, 2.3 50+
So as the league expanded the number of 60+ and 50+ teams increased. There was a big jump in the 80's and then yet another in the 90's. Since 1996 only 1 team has been added so the numbers have been steady this century.
Average Win Totals of Third Best Team in Conference
2010's: 54 West, 51 East
2000's: 56 West, 50 East
1990's: 57 West, 53 East
1980's: 50 West, 53 East
1970's: 48 West, 47 East
So we see the same trend here. There is an increase in the 80's and then another leap in the 90's that remains steady in the ensuing two decades.
It also is notable how the West consistently has the upper hand, contrary to the popular belief that this is a new phenomenon.
(In the 60's there were so few teams the exercise would be futile.)
My big takeaway from this is we can't legitimately compare win totals and SRS (which uses win totals plus point differential) across eras because of the win inflation in recent decades. The 90's particularly had the most wins because that is when the last wave of expansion concluded.