Clippersfan86
06-15-2020, 03:19 PM
https://theathletic.com/1869755/2020/06/15/hollinger-the-ten-nba-free-agent-contracts-that-look-the-best-right-now/
Interesting read. Most of you are missing out behind a pay wall, so I'll help by posting the few and telling you rest of list.
#1 Ivica Zubac- Clippers (thanks again Lakers).
While the Clippers have been reluctant to play him in crunch time, Zubac rates as one of the league’s best young centers and is still just 22. After stealing him from the rival Lakers in a hilarious 2019 trade deadline swap, the Clips re-signed Zubac last summer and have him under contract for three more years at a bargain price of just $22 million, including a team option in 2022-23.
While the center position has a much higher “replacement level” floor than the other positions – you can find halfway decent centers relatively easily – Zubac is good enough that he still offers significant value on this contract. Even in his part time role, I estimate his value as $17.3 million per year over the next three seasons, which would deliver a staggering $30 million in surplus value to the Clippers if, as one presumes, they pick up his option in 2022-23.
Zubac’s presence atop this list also highlights just how valuable max contracts for superstars can be. While he’s number one here, he’s not even the most valuable contract on his own team for 2020-21 – even the load-managed version of Kawhi Leonard projects to be worth more than $49 million, and that number presumably increases once the minute restraints come off in the playoffs.
#2 Dorian Finney-Smith- Mavericks
Entering what should be his prime seasons at age 27, Finney-Smith has become a rock-solid two-way forward for Dallas, often guarding the opponents’ best player while also converting 37.4% of his 3-pointers.
The Mavs have already yielded tremendous value from Finney-Smith after signing him to a minimum deal when he went undrafted out of Florida in 2016, and there is more to come. I estimate him producing $31 million in value for Dallas over the next two seasons, during which the Mavs owe him a mere $8 million thanks to the three-year, $12 million deal they agreed to in the summer of 2019. Between this contract and Doncic’s absurdly valuable rookie deal, Dallas is in a tremendous position going forward.
#3 Marcus Smart- Celtics
One of my pet theories is that teams pay far less for defense in free agency than the same level of offense. That idea was hammered home to me when we in Memphis re-signed Tony Allen in 2013 for mid-level exception money even though he was arguably the best defensive player in the league; it’s inconceivable that this would happen with an elite offensive player.
Enter Marcus Smart. One of the best defensive players in the league, especially among combo guards, Smart nonetheless signed for the relatively modest sum of $14 million a year two summers ago. At just 26, Smart has an offensive game that is still making small forward strides each season (he was a much more aggressive scorer this season, for instance), which allows him to stay on the court for his angry terrier defense. Smart projects to be worth $22 million a year, so the Celtics are coming out $16 million ahead over these next two seasons.
#4 Danuel House- Rockets
#5 Terence Davis- Raptors
#6 Alex Caruso- Lakers
#7 Daniel Theis- Celtics
#8 Monte Morris- Nuggets
#9 Richaun Holmes- Kings
#10 Shake Milton- Sixers
Interesting read. Most of you are missing out behind a pay wall, so I'll help by posting the few and telling you rest of list.
#1 Ivica Zubac- Clippers (thanks again Lakers).
While the Clippers have been reluctant to play him in crunch time, Zubac rates as one of the league’s best young centers and is still just 22. After stealing him from the rival Lakers in a hilarious 2019 trade deadline swap, the Clips re-signed Zubac last summer and have him under contract for three more years at a bargain price of just $22 million, including a team option in 2022-23.
While the center position has a much higher “replacement level” floor than the other positions – you can find halfway decent centers relatively easily – Zubac is good enough that he still offers significant value on this contract. Even in his part time role, I estimate his value as $17.3 million per year over the next three seasons, which would deliver a staggering $30 million in surplus value to the Clippers if, as one presumes, they pick up his option in 2022-23.
Zubac’s presence atop this list also highlights just how valuable max contracts for superstars can be. While he’s number one here, he’s not even the most valuable contract on his own team for 2020-21 – even the load-managed version of Kawhi Leonard projects to be worth more than $49 million, and that number presumably increases once the minute restraints come off in the playoffs.
#2 Dorian Finney-Smith- Mavericks
Entering what should be his prime seasons at age 27, Finney-Smith has become a rock-solid two-way forward for Dallas, often guarding the opponents’ best player while also converting 37.4% of his 3-pointers.
The Mavs have already yielded tremendous value from Finney-Smith after signing him to a minimum deal when he went undrafted out of Florida in 2016, and there is more to come. I estimate him producing $31 million in value for Dallas over the next two seasons, during which the Mavs owe him a mere $8 million thanks to the three-year, $12 million deal they agreed to in the summer of 2019. Between this contract and Doncic’s absurdly valuable rookie deal, Dallas is in a tremendous position going forward.
#3 Marcus Smart- Celtics
One of my pet theories is that teams pay far less for defense in free agency than the same level of offense. That idea was hammered home to me when we in Memphis re-signed Tony Allen in 2013 for mid-level exception money even though he was arguably the best defensive player in the league; it’s inconceivable that this would happen with an elite offensive player.
Enter Marcus Smart. One of the best defensive players in the league, especially among combo guards, Smart nonetheless signed for the relatively modest sum of $14 million a year two summers ago. At just 26, Smart has an offensive game that is still making small forward strides each season (he was a much more aggressive scorer this season, for instance), which allows him to stay on the court for his angry terrier defense. Smart projects to be worth $22 million a year, so the Celtics are coming out $16 million ahead over these next two seasons.
#4 Danuel House- Rockets
#5 Terence Davis- Raptors
#6 Alex Caruso- Lakers
#7 Daniel Theis- Celtics
#8 Monte Morris- Nuggets
#9 Richaun Holmes- Kings
#10 Shake Milton- Sixers