The alchemy of drafting - why does hindsight look so different?

[oldtimer28]

Watching Lillard today made me think - how was this guy not considered a superstar at the draft.

I thought of Doncic next. Both Lillard and Doncic look like superstars in the NBA but I had my doubts about Doncic (didn't know much about Lillard before the NBA).

Barring injury, how do some players do so much better in the NBA than their expectations:

Bad expectations?
Player development?
Other?

[GimmeThat]

For me, it's always wondering about just who exactly will be losing those productions in order to see or state that a draftee is going to come in and immediately produce. it's a little bit the same as to when a player's on the decline, you never know just what type of stat line one can expect when the season starts.

But I think in order to increase the accuracy of prediction, it's not just how well you know the player, but how well you know his teammates and what his stat line truly represented. Even then, the margin of error remains and it only rewards those who pay attention to even the slightest detail.

[oldtimer28]

And for more on Lilllard (drafted sixth behind Michael Kidd Gilchrist, Dion Waiters, and Thomas Robinson plus understandably Anthony Davis and Bradley Beal (at the time))

nba draft.net (had to delete strengths as too long otherwise)


NBA Comparison: Jay Williams/Jerryd Bayless


Weaknesses: Not a true point guard … Looks for his own shot first, which is expected for a player with his talent in the Big Sky, but will leave scouts questioning whether he’ll be able to make his teammates better at the next level … Has improved his decision-making over the last few years, but can get carried away and take questionable shots when he gets hot … Has been dominating all season, but hasn’t faced very strong competition …Missed an entire season before his junior year, so some thought has to be made about injury concerns …

Overall: Lillard has NBA talent, but like most mid-major prospects, he hasn’t proved that he can consistently produce against elite-level talent … A team looking for a scoring point guard could be willing to roll the dice on him, perhaps as soon as the mid/late-lottery …

Tyler Ingle 3/8/12


Weaknesses: Very good from outside and driving to the rim, but needs to improve his midrange game … Solid athlete, though not extraordinary … Assist to turnover ratio is good but could stand to improve 1.5-to-1 … Gets a little careless with the ball at times … Playing at Weber State, he will have to go above and beyond to get the recognition and respect he deserves … It is also questionable how much development/improvement he can make playing against inferior competition on a regular basis … Struggled down the stretch of the season in big games with his decision making. Will need to show that he can be a steadying influence and has the ability to elevate his game in big games situations … Makes better decisions in the half court than full. Will need to become better on the break …

Notes: Has really developed into a solid prospect in 2 years at Weber State … Has first round talent if he can fill the remaining holes to his game …

Aran Smith 7/2/10

[NBAGOAT]

The game also changes more than you think in 5-10 years. Skillsets that don’t seem as valuable when a guy gets drafted may be very valuable later and vice versa. See what happened to jahlil okafor for example

[Horatio33]

He was 22-23 when he was drafted. GM's are obsessed with young players. Relatively Lillard was old. A four year college player. Very rare nowadays they get drafted so high, no matter how skilled the player is.

[Marchesk]

Darko over Melo and Bosh because that upside.

Bowie over Jordan because can't start two SGs.

Olowokandi over Nowitzki, Pierce and Carter cause that upside again.

[oldtimer28]

Darko over Melo and Bosh because that upside.

Bowie over Jordan because can't start two SGs.

Olowokandi over Nowitzki, Pierce and Carter cause that upside again.


That's what I mean. It looks so obvious in hindsight - even with Doncic but I use that recent example as there was genuine doubt at the time of the draft for all these players. Then you see their NBA careers and you think 'how could anyone' but that's the point - how do you know prior?

Plus, great point by NBAGOAT about the game also changing. I remember when being a 'tweener' was a curse and now it seems a blessing - it at least made Tobias Harris very rich.

[Marchesk]

That's what I mean. It looks so obvious in hindsight - even with Doncic but I use that recent example as there was genuine doubt at the time of the draft for all these players. Then you see their NBA careers and you think 'how could anyone' but that's the point - how do you know prior?

Plus, great point by NBAGOAT about the game also changing. I remember when being a 'tweener' was a curse and now it seems a blessing - it at least made Tobias Harris very rich.

Darko and Olowokandi were big risks over proven skilled college stars in Melo and Pierce. Bowie had injury issues and Jordan clearly had immediate star potential in the NBA. Those were bad high picks.

But yeah, often there is some doubt, and you can't know if a player is going to be totally sidelined by injuries like Oden or just not live up to potential like Kwame Brown. And then you have someone like Anthony Bennet in a weak draft who turned out to be lazy.

[iamgine]

I think many times it's about coaching and opportunity too. I have no doubt that if Harden had stayed in OKC, he'd be a far less player than today. Chris Bosh in Miami wasn't as good as Toronto. Steve Nash only became MVP Steve Nash in his 30s. Ben Wallace might've been a garbage minutes player had he not been in Detroit. Would Manu and Tony be as good if they hadn't played for Pop? Don't forget these are real people who relies a lot on the system and people around them in order to grow. Who knows if Olowokandi, Bennet, Kwame, Darko might've became much better in another situation.

[oldtimer28]

I think many times it's about coaching and opportunity too. I have no doubt that if Harden had stayed in OKC, he'd be a far less player than today. Chris Bosh in Miami wasn't as good as Toronto. Steve Nash only became MVP Steve Nash in his 30s. Ben Wallace might've been a garbage minutes player had he not been in Detroit. Would Manu and Tony be as good if they hadn't played for Pop? Don't forget these are real people who relies a lot on the system and people around them in order to grow. Who knows if Olowokandi, Bennet, Kwame, Darko might've became much better in another situation.


Good point.

These players seem to have the right setting. Eg Mitchell in Utah versus other teams

[ArbitraryWater]

players arent developed at 18

thats the point of scouting

[ImKobe]

players arent developed at 18

thats the point of scouting

Yup, and teams with great scouts (Spurs, Lakers for example) always seem to do really well with low draft picks as a result, obviously the coaching staff/player development plays a great role as well, but some FOs are just terrible. Divac apparently passed on Doncic because of his father, stuff like that can completely derail a franchise. It's why the Wolves and Kings always end up being mediocre, no matter how many top 3 picks you give them.