Making the NBA - by the numbers

[sundizz]

I’ll say genetics and race play a huge role. If we’re not being sensitive.

It doesn’t matter the number of people in the population. What matters is how many of them have a NBA capable frame.

To me this is:

-6’4 to 7’2
+Extremely coordinated at that size
+Injury resistant enough to make it through multiple years of playing youth sports

The combination of those 3 factors is exceedingly rare. If i were to haphazard a guess I’d say in the US population of 300 million there are:

300 million
150 million males
38 million males Age 16-28 (25%)
380k of those 6’4 or taller (1%)
19,000 of those that are very coordinated (5%)
5,700 of those that are resilient / injury free (30%)

So to me that is the actual starting number of possible people of possible that even have a reasonable chance to think about being a NBA player (US population only).

Of that my hypothesis is that the breakdown of those 5,700 men would be something like this:

Black 4,959 (85%)
White 570 (10%)
Other 285 (5%)

And to me that’s why I think the NBA is predominantly black. You have to first hit a genetic lottery to even have a chance. Then comes the interest and hard work to actually even have a shot.

[julizaver]

I’ll say genetics and race play a huge role. If we’re not being sensitive.

It doesn’t matter the number of people in the population. What matters is how many of them have a NBA capable frame.

To me this is:

-6’4 to 7’2
+Extremely coordinated at that size
+Injury resistant enough to make it through multiple years of playing youth sports

The combination of those 3 factors is exceedingly rare. If i were to haphazard a guess I’d say in the US population of 300 million there are:

300 million
150 million males
38 million males Age 16-28 (25%)
380k of those 6’4 or taller (1%)
19,000 of those that are very coordinated (5%)
5,700 of those that are resilient / injury free (30%)

So to me that is the actual starting number of possible people of possible that even have a reasonable chance to think about being a NBA player (US population only).

Of that my hypothesis is that the breakdown of those 5,700 men would be something like this:

Black 4,959 (85%)
White 570 (10%)
Other 285 (5%)

And to me that’s why I think the NBA is predominantly black. You have to first hit a genetic lottery to even have a chance. Then comes the interest and hard work to actually even have a shot.

I am not going to check the numbers. But it is the same as football (soccer in US) and the Brazilians - it looks that they are built for this game, it comes/looks so naturally to them more fluid. I would just add - MJ's body is the body of the perfect bball player - long legs, long arms, long fingers (he can palm the ball like I palm orange). But with all this said it doesn't mean that you need to be brazilian or african american first to succeed is sport. First is the will and the poise and then the so called genetic lottery. The more recent example - did you think Luka Doncic hit the genetic lottery. He had his sport genes but can you compare him to Lebron's or MJ's body ?

[Overdrive]

I’ll say genetics and race play a huge role. If we’re not being sensitive.

It doesn’t matter the number of people in the population. What matters is how many of them have a NBA capable frame.

To me this is:

-6’4 to 7’2
+Extremely coordinated at that size
+Injury resistant enough to make it through multiple years of playing youth sports

The combination of those 3 factors is exceedingly rare. If i were to haphazard a guess I’d say in the US population of 300 million there are:

300 million
150 million males
38 million males Age 16-28 (25%)
380k of those 6’4 or taller (1%)
19,000 of those that are very coordinated (5%)
5,700 of those that are resilient / injury free (30%)

So to me that is the actual starting number of possible people of possible that even have a reasonable chance to think about being a NBA player (US population only).

Of that my hypothesis is that the breakdown of those 5,700 men would be something like this:

Black 4,959 (85%)
White 570 (10%)
Other 285 (5%)

And to me that’s why I think the NBA is predominantly black. You have to first hit a genetic lottery to even have a chance. Then comes the interest and hard work to actually even have a shot.

On average the colder the taller. Dutch people are the tallest on average, but very little of them become pro ballers.

Living in the US or Europe is the first hurdle. Bol, Embiids and Olajuwons are rare cases.

Also I think being poor helps. In europe most pro careers are in football and most of the children to become pro are lower class. There's no reason for a doctor couples child to dream of making it big as a pro.

[Im Still Ballin]

Read this 1971 Sports Illustrated article about why Blacks dominate sports in America.

https://vault.si.com/vault/1971/01/18/an-assessment-of-black-is-best

This sort of article would never be published in today's world.

Key points:

- Blacks have proportionately shorter torsos, longer legs and narrower pelvises
- Denser, heavier, wider bones
- More muscle in the upper arm and upper leg
- Less bodyfat
- Potentially larger adrenal glands
- Different fat distribution -- less in the limbs


This is not so much a matter of height and weight as of body proportions. Researchers have found that the black American, on the average, tends to have a shorter trunk, a more slender pelvis, longer arms (especially forearms) and longer legs (especially from the knees down) than his white counterpart. His bones are denser, and therefore heavier, than those of whites. He has more muscle in the upper arms and legs, less in the calves. There is reason to believe that his fat distribution is patterned differently from that of the white man—leaner extremities but not much difference in the trunk. And there is a trifle of evidence—this aspect has been studied so little that it still is in the highly speculative state—that the black man's adrenal glands, a vital factor in many sports, are larger than the white man's.

- Hyperextensive joints
- More tendons and less muscle
- Are naturally loose/relaxed under pressure

There's also the slavery explanation. Apparently only 50% of slaves captured in Africa, made it to America. Some talk of selective breeding too...

The whole article is fascinating.

[ZenMaster]

The premise has been discussed quite a few times over the years, but there's always a relative large group of people saying that it's racist to think body type generally are dependent on race. Maybe it'll go over better this time.

[warriorfan]

On average the colder the taller. Dutch people are the tallest on average, but very little of them become pro ballers.

Living in the US or Europe is the first hurdle. Bol, Embiids and Olajuwons are rare cases.

Also I think being poor helps. In europe most pro careers are in football and most of the children to become pro are lower class. There's no reason for a doctor couples child to dream of making it big as a pro.

Height is only one category relative to athleticism. Boiling it down to “Dutch people are tall too! Blacks just play more sports because they are poor.” is a pretty low iq take. Think it out more before you post next time.

[MaxPlayer]

Read this 1971 Sports Illustrated article about why Blacks dominate sports in America.

https://vault.si.com/vault/1971/01/18/an-assessment-of-black-is-best

This sort of article would never be published in today's world.

Key points:

- Blacks have proportionately shorter torsos, longer legs and narrower pelvises
- Denser, heavier, wider bones
- More muscle in the upper arm and upper leg
- Less bodyfat
- Potentially larger adrenal glands
- Different fat distribution -- less in the limbs



- Hyperextensive joints
- More tendons and less muscle
- Are naturally loose/relaxed under pressure

There's also the slavery explanation. Apparently only 50% of slaves captured in Africa, made it to America. Some talk of selective breeding too...

The whole article is fascinating.

Thanks for posting. This is incredibly interesting. I haven't had a chance to read the whole thing, but I definitely will later.

A lot of people don't want to go down the road of admitting the existence of physiological differences besides skin color among "races", ostensibly because such an admission could be seen as tantamount to justifying racism and prejudice. But a problem with this view is that it can cause unequal outcomes to be viewed as sufficient proof of racism.

To me, the data says what the data says, and it's important to remember 2 things:
1.) Individual variation can swamp the racial average differences. If you pre-judge on race, you risk missing out on outstanding individuals from a non-favored race.
2.) An average individual from any known race is perfectly capable of making a net contribution to a health society (this applies more to nations than high-end professions like pro sports)

[Overdrive]

Height is only one category relative to athleticism. Boiling it down to “Dutch people are tall too! Blacks just play more sports because they are poor.” is a pretty low iq take. Think it out more before you post next time.

OP said 85% of coordinated, tall people are black. I call BS.

Where did I say blacks exclusively are poor. I was talking about club football where it's mostly lower class kids who try to become pros.

[starface]

Read this 1971 Sports Illustrated article about why Blacks dominate sports in America.

https://vault.si.com/vault/1971/01/18/an-assessment-of-black-is-best

This sort of article would never be published in today's world.

Key points:

- Blacks have proportionately shorter torsos, longer legs and narrower pelvises
- Denser, heavier, wider bones
- More muscle in the upper arm and upper leg
- Less bodyfat
- Potentially larger adrenal glands
- Different fat distribution -- less in the limbs



- Hyperextensive joints
- More tendons and less muscle
- Are naturally loose/relaxed under pressure

There's also the slavery explanation. Apparently only 50% of slaves captured in Africa, made it to America. Some talk of selective breeding too...

The whole article is fascinating.


Today’s Woke Warrior will quickly dismiss this discussion and label you a racist, while changing the topic to COVID and calling you a science denier.

Its what happens when Low IQs try to shortcut their way to being High IQs .

[sundizz]

OP said 85% of coordinated, tall people are black. I call BS.

Where did I say blacks exclusively are poor. I was talking about club football where it's mostly lower class kids who try to become pros.

You are completely right. That’s based on my personal observations and probably some inherent bias. It could definitely be less...and it could be more.

It’s purely anecdotal based on the number of people i’ve met that are over 6’4 in my life. Have played hoops most of my life and it’s truly very rare that i’ve non black people over 6’6 that are truly very coordinated and athletic. Maybe a handful and almost none of them with NBA level athleticism. I’ve met 10x that number of black people that are that height, coordinated, and athletic

[Nashty]

Black 4,959 (85%)
White 570 (10%)
Other 285 (5%)


Damn, that black privilege. I think white people should go burn some cars and loot some stores because of this.

[goozeman]

If your grandfather or father played in the NBA, there's a reasonable chance you'll play professional ball. That's compared to almost no chance if your don't have somebody in your family that played in the NBA. Take a look at the Golden State vs Cleveland Finals between 2015 and 2018. Four players (Nance, Curry, Thompson, and Kyrie) all had dad's who played professionally on some level. Those are the ones just off the top of my head. It wouldn't surprise me if there are more from those two rosters. The odds of that many players being from just four families based on chance are obviously astronomically small. Not going to bother calculating since I'm lazy, you get the idea given there are only something like 446 nba players at a time and 7 billion people on the planet. By the way, this fact alone contradicts the idea that NBA athletes today are just head and shoulders above what they were a generation ago. Hell, Nance and Curry aren't even better athletes than their dads. We can also just look at the up and coming prospects that have NBA fathers. Bronny James, Shareef O'Neal, etc. Pretty obvious that genetics is a huge factor, if not the most important one.

[Manny98]

So black people are genetically superior?

Got it :applause: