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View Full Version : 3>2, but an open 2 is better than a contested 3



STATUTORY
09-11-2020, 07:31 AM
this is something I dont with the "3s and layups" only strategy of Morey. His argument is that 3s and layups have the best expected value based on shooting percentages and midrange shots are inefficient, but those shooting percenages are not hardwired static numbers. They are a resullt of how defense is played. if the defense knows you are only gonna shoot 3s and layups, they will adjust accordingly and guard specifically the 3 point line and deny you good 3 point shots, like the Lakers are doing to the Rockets this series. In that scenario 3>2 no longer rings true

Bronbron23
09-11-2020, 09:23 AM
yeah pretty much. Your starting to see it a bit more deep in the playoffs with the increased physicality. The 3 is harder to get off and finishing at the rim is more difficult because refs aren't calling as much so players are driving to create space and pulling up for good looks from the mid. Ive been saying this forever. Bring back the old rules and watch how much the game will change. It will never go back to 7 threes a game. But threes will definitely drop some ant they'll be more of a focus on post and mid.

jayfan
09-11-2020, 09:26 AM
3>2, but 2>>0



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RRR3
09-11-2020, 09:26 AM
The Lakers are beating Houston because they have the two best players in the series (so far. I think Harden>AD in general but he hasn’t been this series). The Rockets absolutely play smarter than the Lakers (outside of WB)

imdaman99
09-11-2020, 09:56 AM
Lakers have taken away the 3. And once you take away the 3, they have AD patrolling the paint. It's actually brilliant coaching and of course they have 2 of the best players in the game. They just need a few points from the role players to be near impossible to beat. The truth is, Lakers are better and the Rockets never had a chance.

China is not broadcasting Rockets games by the way. Remember that when James Harden is given a bunch of fouls where it looks like he didn't commit.

STATUTORY
09-11-2020, 10:19 AM
Lakers have taken away the 3. And once you take away the 3, they have AD patrolling the paint. It's actually brilliant coaching and of course they have 2 of the best players in the game. They just need a few points from the role players to be near impossible to beat. The truth is, Lakers are better and the Rockets never had a chance.

China is not broadcasting Rockets games by the way. Remember that when James Harden is given a bunch of fouls where it looks like he didn't commit.

yup, Lakers are basically GIVING them mid range jumpers but Houston are just not taking it

I can't see how that's an "efficient" strategy

with an equal level of contest, a 3 is better than a 2, but that's not the scenario at play here

ImKobe
09-11-2020, 10:34 AM
The Lakers are beating Houston because they have the two best players in the series (so far. I think Harden>AD in general but he hasn’t been this series). The Rockets absolutely play smarter than the Lakers (outside of WB)

False. Lakers play better team basketball than the Rockets. At least they can take away one of Russ/WB, Rockets can't take away either. Their small ball approach just doesn't work in this series. Lakers can take away the 3 and they control the boards. Vogel has outcoached D'Antoni with adjustments in this series.

jayfan
09-11-2020, 10:44 AM
It's like golf. All things being equal, the closer you are to the cup, the higher likelihood of making the shot/put.

But all things aren't equal in basketball these days, because players aren't working on their mid-range games, and coaches aren't coaching it. All the emphasis is on 3's, so all the practice is on shooting 3's. That's why all these efficiency numbers are such BS. If as much focus was dedicated to mid-range offense as 3's, those numbers would flip dramatically.

The closer you are to the basket, the easier the shot is & the higher the success rate should be.

And While we're at it, the backboard is your friend. That coaches don't coach the utilization of the backboard in making shots other than a layup anymore is a real shame.

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