When will LeBron see....a decline?

[insidious301]

Right now he still leads LA in RPM, BPM and VORP. What that means is LeBron still has the best impact on his team, and arguably of all the NBA. When will LeBron no longer contend as a main cog? When will his play hit an abrupt decline?

[iamgine]

He's actually in a sharp decline. He no longer can single handedly carry a team on offense and defense like his younger self. This is a testament to how good he was before.

The main reason he still has this impact is because he has all the weapons he needed. This has always been his forte, running a team. His younger self got to the finals with Larry Hughes, won 66 games with Mo fcking Williams. Now he has a top 10 player as a sidekick, great veteran teammates and good shooters. It masks the things he no longer able to do and amplify his strength.

[ThatCoolKid]

Lebron is declining in terms of endurance. You can see he gets gassed if he goes all out for long stretches.

[insidious301]

He's actually in a sharp decline. He no longer can single handedly carry a team on offense and defense like his younger self. This is a testament to how good he was before.

The main reason he still has this impact is because he has all the weapons he needed. This has always been his forte, running a team. His younger self got to the finals with Larry Hughes, won 66 games with Mo fcking Williams. Now he has a top 10 player as a sidekick, great veteran teammates and good shooters. It masks the things he no longer able to do and amplify his strength.

I agree that he's already in a decline, but I am referring to a recession where he is no longer a main cog. When he becomes someone who can't lead a team with his play.

[TheCorporation]

LeConsistencyIsKing

[iamgine]

I agree that he's already in a decline, but I am referring to a recession where he is no longer a main cog. When he becomes someone who can't lead a team with his play.

Depends what you mean. What if he's still able to lead a team but only in 25 minutes a game? Does that satisfy?

[insidious301]

Depends what you mean. What if he's still able to lead a team but only in 25 minutes a game? Does that satisfy?

Not sure LeBron can lead a team, impact wise, in only 25 minutes. He could still be high impact in such a limited role but "leading" would be a stretch. In other words, when does the superstar production end? LeBron is logging 34 minutes a game right now which is about average for a superstar-like player.

[iamgine]

Not sure LeBron can lead a team, impact wise, in only 25 minutes. He could still be high impact in such a limited role but "leading" would be a stretch. In other words, when does the superstar production end? LeBron is logging 34 minutes a game right now which is about the average for a superstar-like player.

In that case, it could end anytime. LA could be load managing him with 28 minutes a game and no back to back next season and keeping him fresh for the playoff.

[insidious301]

That's fair. Really depends on what we see going forward, this series and potentially the next. Load management does seem highly probable though. LeBron is having one of the best seasons ever for a player his age, and the mileage is already unprecedented. Surely, the wheels will fall off sooner than later.

[scuzzy]

Lebron's game is hyper adaptive and evolves to best needs of his surrounding teammates and coaching


He will never decline, even in his final resting days he will find himself exceedingly efficient for team progression


His final stage will basically be peak Kidd with shades of Magic and small bursts of his young athleticism

[Roundball_Rock]

He has been declining for many years now but, like KAJ, he 1) is coming down from such a high level it is hard to notice he has declined 2) he is doing it so gradually it doesn't stick out at any given moment.

[insidious301]

His final stage will basically be peak Kidd with shades of Magic and small bursts of his young athleticism

I like that comparison, scuzzy. If that were true, LeBron fans still have a lot to look forward to.


He has been declining for many years now but, like KAJ, he 1) is coming down from such a high level it is hard to notice he has declined 2) he is doing it so gradually it doesn't stick out at any given moment.

Astute point there, Roundball. I think this is it. The gradual decline is what decives the watcher. We know that he's taken a step back, but unlike most players before him, it isn't abrupt.

[PP34Deuce]

Hes shifted his game to more of a PG than ever. Hes always been able to make every pass but he is gotten better at pace and actually being a PG.

An underrated thing about lebron is as much as he plays above the rim...he does not put himself in compromising situations as he gets older.

He has declined since 2018. The diff is if he needs to score 40..he can still do it he just cant sustain it for long periods.

[FireDavidKahn]

His genius level IQ ensures he will always be a positive on the court until he decides to retire or gets injured.

Even if he starts to take a reduced minute role he will still be a huge positive because of his IQ.

I'd say there is a 90% chance he will end up playing with Bronny.

[TheCorporation]

He has been declining for many years now but, like KAJ, he 1) is coming down from such a high level it is hard to notice he has declined 2) he is doing it so gradually it doesn't stick out at any given moment.

+1

Exactly my thoughts

Elite, consistent players like LBJ and KAJ had such a high ceiling at one point that even an aging 75% LBJ or 75% KAJ with their increased IQ and leadership = STILL impressive.

It's basically like Jeff Bezos losing 1 billion dollars.

Monumental for most, not for GOATS

[Roundball_Rock]

+1

Exactly my thoughts

Elite, consistent players like LBJ and KAJ had such a high ceiling at one point that even an aging 75% LBJ or 75% KAJ with their increased IQ and leadership = STILL impressive.

It's basically like Jeff Bezos losing 1 billion dollars.

Monumental for most, not for GOATS

Yeah, the Bezos analogy is a good one. Bezos can lose $1 billion and not even louse a minute of sleep over it. LeBron can decline but he is still #2 in MVP and tied Giannis for the most all-NBA votes--even in year 17 and in decline.

I think the big question is how many years does LeBron have left as a top 5 and then as a top 10 player? As long as he is a top 10 player the Lakers will be contenders with Davis there.


Astute point there, Roundball. I think this is it. The gradual decline is what decives the watcher. We know that he's taken a step back, but unlike most players before him, it isn't abrupt.

Thanks. Yup, it is amazing and some of it is his durability. He hasn't had injuries to cause a precipitous decline in one shot like so many other legends had. KAJ, LeBron and K. Malone are in a class by themselves in terms of longevity and durability (with Malone obviously operating at a top 20 all-time level whereas KAJ and LeBron are/were at GOAT level).

[FireDavidKahn]

Yeah, the Bezos analogy is a good one. Bezos can lose $1 billion and not even louse a minute of sleep over it. LeBron can decline but he is still #2 in MVP and tied Giannis for the most all-NBA votes--even in year 17 and in decline.

I think the big question is how many years does LeBron have left as a top 5 and then as a top 10 player? As long as he is a top 10 player the Lakers will be contenders with Davis there.



Thanks. Yup, it is amazing and some of it is his durability. He hasn't had injuries to cause a precipitous decline in one shot like so many other legends had. KAJ, LeBron and K. Malone are in a class by themselves in terms of longevity and durability (with Malone obviously operating at a top 20 all-time level whereas KAJ and LeBron are/were at GOAT level).

Now THAT is a better and great question.

And it's impossible to answer. The NBA has never seen an athlete like LeBron before with his combination of how elite he is as an athlete plus his longevity. It's unprecedented.

Plus in the last few years his basketball IQ has grown through the roof I'm not so certain his overall impact will diminish in any significant way for a while. He could drop out of the top 10 next year for all we know but his game is set up to decline a lot more slowly then most everyone.

Injuries can derail all of this however.

[CTbasketball92]

I think LeBron has been declining maybe in terms of *do everything, drag horrible teams to 66 wins* LeBron, but that's an inconceivable peak almost.

But LeBron has a higher IQ now and is more refined as a passer and a much more confident shooter. He's now seen every single coverage ever and he just sees a game and can pick you apart mentally. He's also paired with a legit superstar for the first time since 2012.

Harden isn't a clutch and is too predictable, other people aren't big or athletic enough, Kawhi isn't good enough of a playmaker, other people need people to create shots for them, other people are bad defenders. LeBron still is the best.

[iamgine]

I think the big question is how many years does LeBron have left as a top 5 and then as a top 10 player? As long as he is a top 10 player the Lakers will be contenders with Davis there.

I think Lebron doesn't have to be top 10 player to have a top 10 impact as long as the team is built to accommodate him. Like when Kareem's ability to rebound and play diminish a bit, they get Magic and other guys to rebound and fill his minutes. Imagine if Kareem at 35 still had to carry a heavy load, I'd think he'd be much worse than he was.

[AlternativeAcc.]

The thing about LeBron is he's highly skilled and has the best bball IQ in history. And he takes care of his body like no other. Even as we've seen his explosiveness noticeably decline, he's still easily the best player in the league. The only person somewhat close is healthy KD.

Elite skills + elite IQ + elite size/strength (none of these will ever go away) = Elite until he's 40 if he chooses to play that long


Lebron is the GOAT athlete and its not close. Ive studied and played sports my whole life. I know about every athlete. Lebron is easily the most impressive. Ever.

[eliteballer]

With or without Steroids?

[paksat]

when the officials stop letting him mike tyson to the rim, you will see a decline.

[FireDavidKahn]

The thing about LeBron is he's highly skilled and has the best bball IQ in history. And he takes care of his body like no other. Even as we've seen his explosiveness noticeably decline, he's still easily the best player in the league. The only person somewhat close is healthy KD.

Elite skills + elite IQ + elite size/strength (none of these will ever go away) = Elite until he's 40 if he chooses to play that long


Lebron is the GOAT athlete and its not close. Ive studied and played sports my whole life. I know about every athlete. Lebron is easily the most impressive. Ever.

Class is in SESSION

[BigtimeNBAFan]

+1

Exactly my thoughts

Elite, consistent players like LBJ and KAJ had such a high ceiling at one point that even an aging 75% LBJ or 75% KAJ with their increased IQ and leadership = STILL impressive.

It's basically like Jeff Bezos losing 1 billion dollars.

Monumental for most, not for GOATS

Pretty much. Lebron is certainly not as good as he was 5 years ago, but he is a top 5 player of all time, so not being at your peak certainly doesn't mean you still can't be great. His decline is also a slower decline than many players show. He has never had a serious injury. Kobe was great in year 17 than had a bad injury and was never the same. Lebron hasn't had that so he is still great and as long as he doesn't have a serious injury he will still be a star and have a slow decline over the next several years.

[Koresh]

I think LeBron has been declining maybe in terms of *do everything, drag horrible teams to 66 wins* LeBron, but that's an inconceivable peak almost.

But LeBron has a higher IQ now and is more refined as a passer and a much more confident shooter. He's now seen every single coverage ever and he just sees a game and can pick you apart mentally. He's also paired with a legit superstar for the first time since 2012.

Harden isn't a clutch and is too predictable, other people aren't big or athletic enough, Kawhi isn't good enough of a playmaker, other people need people to create shots for them, other people are bad defenders. LeBron still is the best.

A lot of great answers in this thread, but this one takes the cake. This is why LeBron will play out his contract barring setbacks. He is far more cerebral and knows how to pace himself and the game. He knows your plays more than your entire coaching staff. I don't see LeBron being out of the top 10 or I shall say he will never have less than 20 PPG.

He knows how to pick his spots on the floor. He knows how to hunt for mismatches. He has always been one of the best passers in the NBA and now he's even better now. LeBron is a Swiss Army knife unlike the other "superstars." He can do everything on the floor, which is why I wouldn't be surprised he will still play this level until his Lakers contract is up.

A lot of people have said he's Karl Malone as far as longevity or even Kareem. Karl Malone just unfortunately had that bad injury when he was 40-41, but when he was healthy on that 2004 Lakers team, the team was much different.

[SATAN]

I give him another 3 seasons of bullying Kalank Leontard & Gianna Icometochokeyo.

[hold this L]

You can see it still, but he has AD to carry the load. Difference is Lebron has so many things in his bag, that he can make up for it. That's why players that are both elite scorers and playmakers will generally be a level above others who are elite at only 1 aspect, they can impact the game with different variables throughout the game.

Pretty much. Lebron is certainly not as good as he was 5 years ago, but he is a top 5 player of all time, so not being at your peak certainly doesn't mean you still can't be great. His decline is also a slower decline than many players show. He has never had a serious injury. Kobe was great in year 17 than had a bad injury and was never the same. Lebron hasn't had that so he is still great and as long as he doesn't have a serious injury he will still be a star and have a slow decline over the next several years.
I still think his biggest strength is his durability, the guy is built like an absolute freak of nature. Ronaldo is similar, both are genetically perfect and clearly work throughout the year to ensure their body is at its absolute peak that it can physically be.

[light]

LeBron is a better player today than he was when he was 28.

I don't think we're ever going to see a significant decline from him before he retires.

[bison]

I don’t see a big drop off coming anytime soon. Lakers should re-sign him when his contract ends.