538: Heat are 74% favorites to beat the Lakers

[Springsteen]

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Ei-HndWU0AI968w.jpg

#hardestroad!?!? :lebronamazed:

[Shogon]

26% is a pretty substantial number and not to be sneezed at.

Also, I didn't know what 538 is, so I googled it...

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-nba-predictions/

It actually says 27%, fwiw. 27% is a rather substantial number. It's not insignificant. I could be wrong, been wrong before, don't see the Lakers sweeping this like some people make it out to be. I'm going to guess Lakers in 6 but it wouldn't shock me if Miami wins. The thing is, this is not a normal year... they're in the bubble. If they were playing in front of crowds, I don't think Miami is even here right now, to be perfectly honest. But they're not in front of crowds, and it makes a difference.

[J Shuttlesworth]

26% is a pretty substantial number and not to be sneezed at.

Also, I didn't know what 538 is, so I googled it...

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-nba-predictions/

It actually says 27%, fwiw. 27% is a rather substantial number. It's not insignificant. I could be wrong, been wrong before, don't see the Lakers sweeping this like some people make it out to be. I'm going to guess Lakers in 6 but it wouldn't shock me if Miami wins. The thing is, this is not a normal year... they're in the bubble. If they were playing in front of crowds, I don't think Miami is even here right now, to be perfectly honest. But they're not in front of crowds, and it makes a difference.

You know what's an even more substantial number than 27%?

73% you ****ing moron

[Shogon]

You know what's an even more substantial number than 27%?

73% you ****ing moron

Right but the point is it's not even close to a guarantee. If you were given a 27% chance of dying on your way to work today, your ass would stay at home. And if not, then you're too stupid to understand 27%.

[Lil-Shrimp]

You know what's an even more substantial number than 27%?

73% you ****ing moron

:roll:

[warriorfan]

Vegas with Lakers -350 and Heat +300 sounds more legit.

Heat at +300 isn’t a bad bet at all. Its tough to bet against LA though even with how well the Heat are playing. The Lakers have the clear cut two best players in the series. That is tough to overcome.

[Real Men Wear Green]

I hope they're right but Davis and James are going to be the best players on the floor and I doubt it's close between either of them and Butler or Adebayo. LA has greater talent in those two and won't make the Celtics' mental mistakes with all of the turnovers.

[LAmbruh]

against all odds :applause:

[Shogon]

Vegas with Lakers -350 and Heat +300 sounds more legit.

Heat at +300 isn’t a bad bet at all. Its tough to bet against LA though even with how well the Heat are playing. The Lakers have the clear cut two best players in the series. That is tough to overcome.

It is, but the Heat have the third, fourth and fifth best players in the series.

The Lakers SHOULD win in 5 or 6, but it would not surprise me if the Heat win the series.

[warriorfan]

It is, but the Heat have the third, fourth and fifth best players in the series.

The Lakers SHOULD win in 5 or 6, but it would not surprise me if the Heat win the series.

That’s fair.

[HylianNightmare]

Lakers in 5

[r0drig0lac]

You know what's an even more substantial number than 27%?

73% you ****ing moron:oldlol: :applause:

[Doranku]

Before the playoffs started on Aug 24, 538's wonderful predictions had the Heat at a 2% chance to make the finals a <1% to win the finals.

They mean close to nothing.

[light]

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Ei-HndWU0AI968w.jpg

#hardestroad!?!? :lebronamazed:

This is powered by their faulty RAPTOR ratings.

RAPTOR doesn't actually watch the games, mind you, because it's math. The only things it can see are publicly available statistics.

[Derka]

Switch to the ELO forecast which is actually based on team ratings and head-to-head matchups. See what happens. You might have led with that if you any idea how their ratings systems work instead of going for the snazzy clickbait title.

[Axe]

It's going to be fun seeing welfarefan lose another bet.

[MaxPlayer]

Switch to the ELO forecast which is actually based on team ratings and head-to-head matchups. See what happens. You might have led with that if you any idea how their ratings systems work instead of going for the snazzy clickbait title.

Haha, they actually advertised this result?

If some formula I had been pushing squirted out a steamy brown turd of a forecast like this one, I'd pray that as few people noticed as possible and then quietly overhaul my methodology.

[Trollsmasher]

can LeBron win as the underdog yet again?

[TheCalmInsanity]

Right but the point is it's not even close to a guarantee. If you were given a 27% chance of dying on your way to work today, your ass would stay at home. And if not, then you're too stupid to understand 27%.

True but if you have two options of driving into work and have to pick one, and one has a 27% chance to die and one has a 73% chance to die I'd argue you'd probably stay the fck away from the 73%

[bladefd]

Switch to the ELO forecast which is actually based on team ratings and head-to-head matchups. See what happens. You might have led with that if you any idea how their ratings systems work instead of going for the snazzy clickbait title.

Yeah, you are right on the money.


Our player-based RAPTOR forecast doesn’t account for wins and losses; it is based entirely on our NBA player projections, which estimate each player’s future performance based on the trajectory of similar NBA players.


Elo ratings — which power the pure Elo forecast — are a measure of team strength based on head-to-head results, margin of victory and quality of opponent.

There is no doubt ELO holds more value than RAPTOR forecast for a team consisting of old players (LeBron, Rondo, Dwight, Danny, Smith, Dudley). Those guys have either short time remaining in the league or are past their prime.

Heat are a young team. Only Iguodala is on the old side and maybe Dragic. Everyone else is in their 20s or 30 in Butler's case. Haslem is old, but he doesn't play. That team has not even begun - most of them have not even entered their prime.

BTW- ELO has Lakers as favorites 55% to 45%

[TheCorporation]

can LeBron win as the underdog yet again?

TheHardestRoad

[KD7]

Heat are HEAVY favourites