Is a healthy Kevin Durant a sleeper to win MVP next year?

[BigKAT]

No Steph Curry in his team.

If they win 60 games -- I don't see why else he will lose it.

Lebron won't win it unless the Lakers go for 65 wins which I don't see happening. They're going to save themselves for the playoffs.

Luka is a threat but the Mavs won't win enough games.
Giannis won't win another MVP until he makes a finals, I think.

Who else is a threat?

Could someone unexpected make a run at it? (Like Giannis in 2019?)

[Lebron_James]

Will he be the same player? I predict he misses ton of games

[Kiddlovesnets]

He could be, but that’s assuming he plays all the games while I think Nash will allow him to rest for back to back games even if he’s healthy.

[Drygon]

No Steph Curry in his team.

If they win 60 games -- I don't see why else he will lose it.

Lebron won't win it unless the Lakers go for 65 wins which I don't see happening. They're going to save themselves for the playoffs.

Luka is a threat but the Mavs won't win enough games.
Giannis won't win another MVP until he makes a finals, I think.

Who else is a threat?

Could someone unexpected make a run at it? (Like Giannis in 2019?)

WTF? Playoffs is a non-factor since MVP is a regular season accomplishment.

On-Topic: KD will most likely follow Kawhi route & do load management for saving himself for playoffs.

[999Guy]

If he even plays at 2017 level he’s not sniffing it. Guys have been and will be better than that.


In 2018 I said to myself, Durant will never be better than Harden ever again and that’s still true. He’s done now that he doesn’t have Curry and Dray. Time will show.

And I think he’ll bounce back fine from the injury.

[PP34Deuce]

Offensively he's going to be what he always has been- an elite scorer.

I think the injury and the fact he's 31 will take his underrated freakish athletiscm and make him slower laterally.

[Phoenix]

If he returns at even 85-90% of what he was, it's possible. Lebron and AD will cancel each other out ( I expect AD to take a big leap forward coming off a championship), Harden and Russ will cancel each other out, Luka is possible but if Giannis ended up on the Mavs that cancels him ( and Giannis too though I doubt the media would have voted him a third str8 MVP regardless). If Steph makes it most/all of the way back he has a shot as well.

[light]

No Steph Curry in his team.

If they win 60 games -- I don't see why else he will lose it.

Lebron won't win it unless the Lakers go for 65 wins which I don't see happening. They're going to save themselves for the playoffs.

Luka is a threat but the Mavs won't win enough games.
Giannis won't win another MVP until he makes a finals, I think.

Who else is a threat?

Could someone unexpected make a run at it? (Like Giannis in 2019?)

A sleeper? Sure. But there are a lot of sleepers.

Right now Durant has +1200 odds to be the MVP next year, which are the same odds for Jayson Tatum. Giannis is still the favorite at +350, followed by Luka at +450.

[DoctorP]

Thats a huge task. I think Durant may struggle to find his game but everything is a huge IF. A 7 footer like Durant is unique. Kyrie will have an easier time returning from injury and could have a big year too.

We will see.

[Wally450]

Jayson Tatum

[Drygon]

If he returns at even 85-90% of what he was, it's possible. Lebron and AD will cancel each other out ( I expect AD to take a big leap forward coming off a championship), Harden and Russ will cancel each other out, Luka is possible but if Giannis ended up on the Mavs that cancels him ( and Giannis too though I doubt the media would have voted him a third str8 MVP regardless). If Steph makes it most/all of the way back he has a shot as well.

Why would it cancel out?

I mean, LeBron finished 2nd place in MVP-voting despite having top 5 player as teammate in AD.

[HBK_Kliq_2]

Since 2015, Kevin Durant has only averaged 61 games per season and that doesn't include the entire 2019-20 missed! He needs load management just like Kawhi.

[Bronbron23]

No Steph Curry in his team.

If they win 60 games -- I don't see why else he will lose it.

Lebron won't win it unless the Lakers go for 65 wins which I don't see happening. They're going to save themselves for the playoffs.

Luka is a threat but the Mavs won't win enough games.
Giannis won't win another MVP until he makes a finals, I think.

Who else is a threat?

Could someone unexpected make a run at it? (Like Giannis in 2019?)

No. Achilles injury and his age will prevent him from ever being an mvp caliber player again. He'll still be a solid all star though

[pandiani17]

If he even plays at 2017 level he’s not sniffing it. Guys have been and will be better than that.


In 2018 I said to myself, Durant will never be better than Harden ever again and that’s still true. He’s done now that he doesn’t have Curry and Dray. Time will show.

And I think he’ll bounce back fine from the injury.

Let's see how Durant comes back, but if he is healthy I would take him over Harden. As some posters have said, I would expect him to take it easy and rest some games from time to time.

[Phoenix]

Why would it cancel out?

I mean, LeBron finished 2nd place in MVP-voting despite having top 5 player as teammate in AD.

And AD's presence was often cited as one of the reasons for Lebron not to be MVP, fairly or unfairly. When you have two MVP level players on one team, odds are long that one of the players gets the MVP award. The 'he played with that guy' reason will always come up.

Plus, I don't see the media giving Giannis the MVP award for the 3rd year in a row. This year he had the best team record and a historic PER. He would have to do something insane next year to win again.

[Drygon]

Let's see how Durant comes back, but if he is healthy I would take him over Harden. As some posters have said, I would expect him to take it easy and rest some games from time to time.

Why? Harden is actually better than KD when both of them don't have a stacked deck.....



James Harden at Houston Rockets (2012-2020)

Playoffs

- 28.4 PPG, 5.7 RPG, 7.1 APG
- 42.1 FG%, 32.4 3P%, 87.1 FT% on 57.8 TS% (15.0% of 2Ps & 30.8% of 3Ps assisted)
- 0.173 WS/48
- 7.6 BPM
- 0 Rings
- 0 Finals MVPs


Kevin Durant at Oklahoma City Thunder (2009-2016)

Playoffs

- 28.9 PPG, 8.0 RPG, 3.7 APG
- 45.5 FG%, 32.9 3P%, 84.8 FT% on 57.5 TS% (46.2% of 2Ps & 73.9% of 3Ps assisted)
- 0.177 WS/48
- 6.3 BPM
- 0 Rings
- 0 Finals MVPs

[Stephonit]

A sleeper? Sure. But there are a lot of sleepers.

Right now Durant has +1200 odds to be the MVP next year, which are the same odds for Jayson Tatum. Giannis is still the favorite at +350, followed by Luka at +450.

I don't buy the odds for Giannis. Antetokounmpo's chances for becoming MVP for the third time in a row are close to nil.

[red1]

I don't buy the odds for Giannis. Antetokounmpo's chances for becoming MVP for the third time in a row are close to nil.

agreed. voter fatigue is a real thing. they wont want to give it to him after his rough postseasons.



I dont see it for kd either. I think lebron or curry will win it next year.

[Drygon]

agreed. voter fatigue is a real thing. they wont want to give it to him after his rough postseasons.



I dont see it for kd either. I think lebron or curry will win it next year.

What has playoffs to do with a regular season award?

[pandiani17]

Why? Harden is actually better than KD when both of them don't have a stacked deck.....



James Harden at Houston Rockets (2012-2020)

Playoffs

- 28.4 PPG, 5.7 RPG, 7.1 APG
- 42.1 FG%, 32.4 3P%, 87.1 FT% on 57.8 TS% (15.0% of 2Ps & 30.8% of 3Ps assisted)
- 0.173 WS/48
- 7.6 BPM
- 0 Rings
- 0 Finals MVPs


Kevin Durant at Oklahoma City Thunder (2009-2016)

Playoffs

- 28.9 PPG, 8.0 RPG, 3.7 APG
- 45.5 FG%, 32.9 3P%, 84.8 FT% on 57.5 TS% (46.2% of 2Ps & 73.9% of 3Ps assisted)
- 0.177 WS/48
- 6.3 BPM
- 0 Rings
- 0 Finals MVPs

Just a personal opinion.

[Run DLC]

KD will always be an elite scorer. He’s going to average over 25+ PPG no matter what. He’s the purest of pure scorers I’ve ever seen, but that’s always been his biggest and main impact. He’s been good defensively in recent years, but he’s never been elite. He’s an above average/good playmaker at his position, but again, he’s never been elite. He’s not a true leader, he doesn’t elevate his teammates, he hasn’t shown the ability to adjust on the fly when the going gets tough. I see him having a strong come back season with a lot of media hype mostly those with hidden agendas that want to see LeBron fail, but KD isn’t going to be averaging 8+ assists anytime soon.

[PP34Deuce]

They are going to want to give MVP consideration to new talent. Lebron is most certainly going to do what he always does - Hover around 25-27PPG 8 and 8.

KD is going to have multiple load managed games
Kawhi same thing

Luka getting Dallas to 55+ wins is going to be the MVP. I don't see Curry, Westbrook, Harden, or any of the older stars getting it.

[Phoenix]

What has playoffs to do with a regular season award?

Nothing, but when was the last 3 straight winner? Bird in 86. This year the rationale for him winning was easy, team had the best record, he was the lone all-star and really didnt have a top 20 guy on his side, with the best individual stats. The 'story' was he set the all-time PER mark. Unless he does something batshit crazy like 35/15/7 and the Bucks beat 73 wins I do think voters will look elsewhere.

Humans are deciding this and will have their own subjective criteria. If Steph comes back and had a season like 2016 and the Warriors have a top record again, that's a 'story'. If KD comes back from his Achilles injury and the Nets have a top 2 record and he's dropping 30/8/5 with his usual efficiencies, that's a 'story'. Giannis doing exactly what he did last year will probably get overlooked. It's not a perfect system.

[BigKAT]

Nothing, but when was the last 3 straight winner? Bird in 86. This year the rationale for him winning was easy, team had the best record, he was the lone all-star and really didnt have a top 20 guy on his side, with the best individual stats. The 'story' was he set the all-time PER mark. Unless he does something batshit crazy like 35/15/7 and the Bucks beat 73 wins I do think voters will look elsewhere.

Humans are deciding this and will have their own subjective criteria. If Steph comes back and had a season like 2016 and the Warriors have a top record again, that's a 'story'. If KD comes back from his Achilles injury and the Nets have a top 2 record and he's dropping 30/8/5 with his usual efficiencies, that's a 'story'. Giannis doing exactly what he did last year will probably get overlooked. It's not a perfect system.

I think you summed it up perfectly.
That's what I meant about Giannis not getting another MVP before reaching the finals.

It's just the same old story.

Durant's last MVP was 2014.
The story was him finally overtaking Lebron after finishing second year after year.

And about Luka,
I just don't see them winning 55 games...
But hey, I also didn't think he is going to average 29 - 9 - 9 this season but here we are.

[lxlHoTsAuSelxl]

If Dallas win enough games, its Luka.

[Anfernee]

Why? Harden is actually better than KD when both of them don't have a stacked deck.....



James Harden at Houston Rockets (2012-2020)

Playoffs

- 28.4 PPG, 5.7 RPG, 7.1 APG
- 42.1 FG%, 32.4 3P%, 87.1 FT% on 57.8 TS% (15.0% of 2Ps & 30.8% of 3Ps assisted)
- 0.173 WS/48
- 7.6 BPM
- 0 Rings
- 0 Finals MVPs


Kevin Durant at Oklahoma City Thunder (2009-2016)

Playoffs

- 28.9 PPG, 8.0 RPG, 3.7 APG
- 45.5 FG%, 32.9 3P%, 84.8 FT% on 57.5 TS% (46.2% of 2Ps & 73.9% of 3Ps assisted)
- 0.177 WS/48
- 6.3 BPM
- 0 Rings
- 0 Finals MVPs

Thanks for the stats. This makes sense.

I actually think Durant will have a bad year. He's always played on teams with so much talent. Westbrook and Harden were future MVP's and Ibaka a starter for a future championship team, then he played with the Warriors.

The Nets have none of that, and a Kyrie who, without a strong leader like LeBron to keep him in check, is a cancerous, irritating, baby. It's not gonna be a good year.