View Full Version : 538 is giving Biden a 90% chance of winning the election.
1987_Lakers
10-31-2020, 02:14 PM
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-election-forecast/
For what it's worth they gave Hillary a 71% chance of winning the morning of the 2016 election.
imdaman99
10-31-2020, 02:40 PM
538 is BS :lol how often is it right?
bladefd
10-31-2020, 02:51 PM
Chances are likely this will be a hell election for the Republican party. It could uproot the whole party like it did the Republican party after 2012 beatdown. The party leadership drastically changed between 2012 and 2016. We will see what happens. This might be a drawn out election if lil Donny puts on a massive temper-tantrum on Wednesday morning.
Patrick Chewing
10-31-2020, 03:11 PM
Chances are likely this will be a hell election for the Republican party. It could uproot the whole party like it did the Republican party after 2012 beatdown. The party leadership drastically changed between 2012 and 2016. We will see what happens. This might be a drawn out election if lil Donny puts on a massive temper-tantrum on Wednesday morning.
Oh brother I will be merciless with you.
BigKobeFan
10-31-2020, 03:18 PM
Killer had a 99%
~primetime~
10-31-2020, 03:32 PM
There is a 110% chance Biden
wins the popular vote, by a large margin too.
Can Trump win the electoral college? Yes. The battleground states are closer and there could be hidden "shy Trumpers" that come out like in 2016. But it looks to be much more unlikely than in 2016. Biden is out polling Hillary in those states.
Independent voters are polling toward Biden
Young voters are coming out in masses and lean Biden.
Registered Republicans are more likely to go Dem than Registered Dem vote Trump.
Rocket
10-31-2020, 04:37 PM
There is a 110% chance Biden wins the popular vote, by a large margin too.
Can Trump win the electoral college? Yes. The battleground states are closer and there could be hidden "shy Trumpers" that come out like in 2016. But it looks to be much more unlikely than in 2016. Biden is out polling Hillary in those states.
Independent voters are polling toward Biden
Young voters are coming out in masses and lean Biden.
Registered Republicans are more likely to go Dem than Registered Dem vote Trump.
I guarantee Trump wins the electoral college and I have a strong feeling he will also win the popular vote. I give him 100% for elctoral college and 70% chance of winning the popular vote.
~primetime~
10-31-2020, 04:41 PM
I guarantee Trump wins the electoral college and I have a strong feeling he will also win the popular vote. I give him 100% for elctoral college and 70% chance of winning the popular vote.
There is zero chance of him winning the popular vote. None
It's impossible
Lucky for you the electoral college exists... its Trump's only way.
Manny98
10-31-2020, 05:22 PM
No one is voting for Biden, look at his rally's compared to Trump
Lefties get ready to hold this L :oldlol:
CelticBaller
10-31-2020, 05:26 PM
No one is voting for Biden, look at his rally's compared to Trump
Lefties get ready to hold this L :oldlol:
Agreed, I mean just look at his rallies in California! No way he loses that state!
Isn't manny from the uk or something
AKA_AAP
10-31-2020, 05:31 PM
There's a 90% chance that lefties will be scrambling for job interviews from righties, 99.667% of successful business owners, in mid November until year end. Rioting, looting, and ANTIFA is not a job.
TheMan
10-31-2020, 05:52 PM
I guarantee Trump wins the electoral college and I have a strong feeling he will also win the popular vote. I give him 100% for elctoral college and 70% chance of winning the popular vote.
Lol
Electoral college, yes
Popular vote, no...he will lose that closer to 10,000,000 than to the almost 3,000,000 by HRC
diamenz
10-31-2020, 06:16 PM
No one is voting for Biden, look at his rally's compared to Trump
Lefties get ready to hold this L :oldlol:
yeah! just look at how bernie killed off joe this year and hillary in 16!
AlternativeAcc.
10-31-2020, 06:33 PM
If Trump wins, he becomes GOAT human.
This would indicate he has a very innate ability to win at an inhuman level. He's already top 5. But winning again when the whole world is out to smear him would be the most fascinating and improbable win in the history of mankind.
AlternativeAcc.
10-31-2020, 06:38 PM
And God damn, Trump is TURNING IT UP on Twitter. His tweets may put him over the edge. What a beast of a closer.
tpols
10-31-2020, 06:46 PM
And God damn, Trump is TURNING IT UP on Twitter. His tweets may put him over the edge. What a beast of a closer.
His rallies have been insane. Big time clutch. They are going to try and rig it with the mail in ballots though so he's gonna have to be up kinda big.
CelticBaller
10-31-2020, 06:59 PM
His rallies have been insane. Big time clutch. They are going to try and rig it with the mail in ballots though so he's gonna have to be up kinda big.
"rig"
excuses already piling in
fsvr54
10-31-2020, 07:08 PM
Clutch god, Trump is the Joe Johnson of politics
BigKobeFan
10-31-2020, 07:26 PM
"rig"
excuses already piling in
Wow you are really dumb
Nanners
10-31-2020, 07:29 PM
Anyone who is saying that the odds are anything other than a coin toss is full of their own shit imho
bladefd
10-31-2020, 07:31 PM
His rallies have been insane. Big time clutch. They are going to try and rig it with the mail in ballots though so he's gonna have to be up kinda big.
He is not winning popular vote. I know Trumpeters are guaranteed to be blaming voter fraud on Wednesday when he loses popular vote by 10mill or more, but he brought it against himself. Democrats are coming out in droves - they have 20mill early votes in just 20 states (other states don't report by party breakdown). It's likely more than double that across 50 states with still 2 more days early-voting to go. Independents are 10 mill in 20 states - double that across 50 states.
To put it in perspective, Hillary got 65mill votes total, Trump 62mill in 2016 in election with fairly low turnout (55.5%). Based on early votes this high, overall turnout is very likely to be higher than even 2008.
CelticBaller
10-31-2020, 07:46 PM
Wow you are really dumb
and you're not american and oddly care a lot about our politics.
and you're not american and oddly care a lot about our politics.
:oldlol:
Long Duck Dong
10-31-2020, 08:28 PM
Rasmussen, basically the only one that counts since it was the only major poll correct in the last election, had Trump up 48% to 47% on Wednesday, down 48% to 47%™on Thursday, and Biden up a commanding 49% to 46% on Friday. In 2016 it had Trump tied with Hillary at 44% the last Friday before the election. I think Trump is going to get beat, although I hope he doesn't.
I was talking to this girl today all jazzed up that Trump was going to stomp Biden on Tuesday. Her eyes were lit up like Christmas and she was talking super loud. I was like keep your voice down woman. She's like 6 foot too, totally stood out in the store. It's going to be a sad sight to see when the brightness in here big blue eyes goes dull on Tuesday night
BigKobeFan
10-31-2020, 08:32 PM
and you're not american and oddly care a lot about our politics.
Keep saying that to urself. Only u and wheels keep repeating the same shit while my ballot has been sent in
BigKobeFan
10-31-2020, 08:33 PM
Rasmussen, basically the only one that counts since it was the only major poll correct in the last election, had Trump up 48% to 47% on Wednesday, down 48% to 47%™on Thursday, and Biden up a commanding 49% to 46% on Friday. In 2016 it had Trump tied with Hillary at 44% the last Friday before the election. I think Trump is going to get beat, although I hope he doesn't.
I was talking to this girl today all jazzed up that Trump was going to stomp Biden on Tuesday. Her eyes were lit up like Christmas and she was talking super loud. I was like keep your voice down woman. She's like 6 foot too, totally stood out in the store. It's going to be a sad sight to see when the brightness in here big blue eyes goes dull on Tuesday night
One thing i learned from trump. You need to believe and you will win
CelticBaller
10-31-2020, 08:34 PM
Keep saying that to urself. Only u and wheels keep repeating the same shit while my ballot has been sent in
“Wheels”
Oof Shew you outed yourself. Everybody here knows you’re from Australia :oldlol:
Nanners
10-31-2020, 08:35 PM
One thing i learned from trump. You need to believe and you will win
thats a good lesson
one thing I learned from Trump is that men are supposed to bang as many big tittay pornstars as possible... even if they belong to a nexium cult or whaever
SATAN
10-31-2020, 08:39 PM
Anyone get the feeling Biden is going to win and some lunatic like Chewing will/will try to shoot him?
SATAN
10-31-2020, 08:41 PM
One thing i learned from trump. You need to believe and you will win
Time to start believing this retard gets banned soon
dude77
10-31-2020, 09:42 PM
The President's 4th and final rally of the day
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/ElseDuwWkAAHoMl?format=jpg&name=large
BigKobeFan
10-31-2020, 09:56 PM
Time to start believing this retard gets banned soon
STFU wheels
bladefd
10-31-2020, 10:07 PM
The President's 4th and final rally of the day
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/ElseDuwWkAAHoMl?format=jpg&name=large
That's Pennsylvania, which is essentially a must-win state for Trump. If Biden wins Pennsylvania, it means he most likely swept the entire Northeast. Biden is up 5% to 8% in every poll in PA thus far.
TheMan
10-31-2020, 10:44 PM
The President's 4th and final rally of the day
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/ElseDuwWkAAHoMl?format=jpg&name=large
How many of those idiots will be dead a month from now?
BigKobeFan
10-31-2020, 10:46 PM
How many of those idiots will be dead a month from now?
1% infected so out of 50k. There will be 500 infected. Out of 500 you have a 99.995% of surviving so. The answer is 1
dude77
10-31-2020, 10:46 PM
from the makers of the 405 freeway TRUMP sign:
https://twitter.com/RealKiraDavis/status/1322204363775864833
dude77
10-31-2020, 10:48 PM
How many of those idiots will be dead a month from now?
stop being such a scared ***** .. no way to live
tpols
10-31-2020, 10:49 PM
How many of those idiots will be dead a month from now?
Less than 1% hombre.
TheMan
10-31-2020, 10:53 PM
Less than 1% hombre.
Yeah, so if there is a few infected people there, lots will get infected and only a handful will die...was it worth it going to a political rally? I know you guys love Trump but is it worth risking your life? I guess we just have different priorities.
tpols
10-31-2020, 10:59 PM
Yeah, so if there is a few infected people there, lots will get infected and only a handful will die...was it worth it going to a political rally? I know you guys love Trump but is it worth risking your life? I guess we just have different priorities.
People cant stay locked up in a basement their whole lives over a flu with a 99.9% recovery rate.
It's totally asinine.
BigKobeFan
10-31-2020, 11:11 PM
People cant stay locked up in a basement their whole lives over a flu with a 99.9% recovery rate.
It's totally asinine.
Its not just 99.9%...its 99.995%
TheMan
10-31-2020, 11:25 PM
Let me ask you this...how many people do you guys know that have died from the flu? And I mean in all your lives, not just this year? I personally know half a dozen people who died from covid19, and I was talking to some guy today who was cooking my carne asada who told me his dad died of the Coronavirus 3 months ago. I guess because it's hit close to home for me that I take it more seriously than y'all. I don't know of anyone who has died of the flu...just saying.
BigKobeFan
10-31-2020, 11:33 PM
Let me ask you this...how many people do you guys know that have died from the flu? And I mean in all your lives, not just this year? I personally know half a dozen people who died from covid19, and I was talking to some guy today who was cooking my carne asada who told me his dad died of the Coronavirus 3 months ago. I guess because it's hit close to home for me that I take it more seriously than y'all. I don't know of anyone who has died of the flu...just saying.
0.
Nanners
10-31-2020, 11:34 PM
5.53 seems to be giving biden a very low chance of winning
~primetime~
10-31-2020, 11:39 PM
https://ourworldindata.org/uploads/2020/03/COVID-CFR-by-age-710x550.png
The real fatality rates...
Yeah that 99.9999999 shit is legit if you're 18... not if you're 70... and at Trumper events half those mfers are old rednecks
TheMan
10-31-2020, 11:39 PM
5.53 seems to be giving biden a very low chance of winning
what is 5.53?
TheMan
10-31-2020, 11:41 PM
https://ourworldindata.org/uploads/2020/03/COVID-CFR-by-age-710x550.png
The real fatality rates...
Yeah that 99.9999999 shit is legit if you're 18... not if you're 70... and at Trumper events half those mfers are old rednecks
And fat with horrible diets and probably drink and smoke.
~primetime~
10-31-2020, 11:42 PM
Here is the most meaningful poll:
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/us/trump-vs-biden-top-battleground-states-2020-vs-2016/
That is Biden (2020) vs Hillary (2016) in only the swing states.
Currently he is 2.1 pts higher than her in those states.
TheMan
10-31-2020, 11:45 PM
Here is the most meaningful poll:
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/us/trump-vs-biden-top-battleground-states-2020-vs-2016/
That is Biden (2020) vs Hillary (2016) in only the swing states.
Currently he is 2.1 pts higher than her in those states.
I think it's better for the narrative to be that this thing is far from over. Complacency did affect a lot of Democratic support for Killary who many thought was in the bag, need to go with the mindset that this is 50/50...
SATAN
10-31-2020, 11:55 PM
Yeah, so if there is a few infected people there, lots will get infected and only a handful will die...was it worth it going to a political rally? I know you guys love Trump but is it worth risking your life? I guess we just have different priorities.
It might be the only time they get to see their super hero idol sent from God in person. Totally worth it.
Jasper
11-01-2020, 12:03 AM
Chances are likely this will be a hell election for the Republican party. It could uproot the whole party like it did the Republican party after 2012 beatdown. The party leadership drastically changed between 2012 and 2016. We will see what happens. This might be a drawn out election if lil Donny puts on a massive temper-tantrum on Wednesday morning.
ditto (thumb's up)
Cleverness
11-01-2020, 12:56 AM
https://ourworldindata.org/uploads/2020/03/COVID-CFR-by-age-710x550.png
The real fatality rates...
Yeah that 99.9999999 shit is legit if you're 18... not if you're 70... and at Trumper events half those mfers are old rednecks
Good lord, my faith in humanity has faded so much this year. Are you seriously incapable of understanding the difference between a CFR & IFR? Almost a year into this and you're still posting case fatality rates and calling them "real fatality rates." TheMan didn't even bother to point out the massive error (did he even recognize it?).
ZenMaster
11-01-2020, 07:05 AM
Good lord, my faith in humanity has faded so much this year. Are you seriously incapable of understanding the difference between a CFR & IFR? Almost a year into this and you're still posting case fatality rates and calling them "real fatality rates." TheMan didn't even bother to point out the massive error (did he even recognize it?).
They used to try and disagree with you, but at one point they huddled up and labelled your information as fake. There's no going back from that in this day age, people usually dig themselves in deeper.
dude77
11-01-2020, 07:08 AM
'538' .. not a thing .. haven't learned a thing
~primetime~
11-01-2020, 11:11 AM
538 is just throwing out odds here...if Trump wins, it doesn't mean they were 'wrong'...they are CLEARLY saying there are various ways that Trump can win the election. There are just more ways for Biden.
Here is what I think is meaningful, the polling diffreneces between now and 2016 in KEY states
Arizona
2020 (Biden +1.0)
2016 (Trump +4.0)
Florida
2020 (Biden +1.6)
2016 (Clinton +1.0)
Georgia
2020 (Biden +0.8)
2016 (Trump +4.6)
Iowa
2020 (Tie)
2016 (Trump +1.0)
Michigan
2020 (Biden +7.3)
2016 (Clinton +4.7)
Minnesota
2020 (Biden +4.7)
2016 (Clinton +6.0)
Nevada
2020 (Biden +4.0)
2016 (Trump +1.3)
North Carolina
2020 (Biden +2.3)
2016 (Trump +1.5)
Ohio
2020 (Tie)
2016 (Trump +2.8)
Pennsylvania
2020 (Biden +3.7)
2016 (Clinton +2.4)
Texas
2020 (Trump +2.3)
2016 (Trump +12.0)
Wisconsin
2020 (Biden +5.7)
2016 (Clinton +5.5)
LAmbruh
11-24-2020, 06:45 PM
:applause:
~primetime~
11-24-2020, 10:57 PM
I guarantee Trump wins the electoral college and I have a strong feeling he will also win the popular vote. I give him 100% for elctoral college and 70% chance of winning the popular vote.
This guy vanished
TheMan
11-25-2020, 12:32 AM
This guy vanished
Probably offed himself.
diamenz
11-25-2020, 12:54 AM
This guy vanished
Last Activity Yesterday 05:41 PM.
no posts, doe. :lol
CelticBaller
11-25-2020, 10:15 AM
'538' .. not a thing .. haven't learned a thing
rip
warriorfan
11-25-2020, 11:15 AM
”The candidate who I thought was going to win, won! Ha! You were wrong and I was so right. Orange man is such a bad man, I knew he couldn’t win again!“
What f.ags :lol unbelievable
diamenz
11-25-2020, 11:16 PM
”The candidate who I thought was going to win, won! Ha! You were wrong and I was so right. Orange man is such a bad man, I knew he couldn’t win again!“
What f.ags :lol unbelievable
don't be a party pooper. nobody likes a party pooper.
don't be a party pooper. nobody likes a party pooper.
Everybody here in ish knows he's clueless as a psyduck.
JohnnySic
11-26-2020, 12:05 AM
https://twitter.com/i/status/1331793125933805569
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