View Full Version : Top 3 least likely teams to have won the Championship
tpols
12-04-2020, 12:40 PM
in the past decade...
'15 Warriors - +2800
'11 Mavericks - +2000
'19 Raptors - +1850
Damn... remarkable feats.
MadDog
12-04-2020, 12:44 PM
Damn, how much help does LeBron need? :confusedshrug: Played on TWO teams with the the most help yet STILL got his ass handed to him.
light
12-04-2020, 01:25 PM
in the past decade...
'15 Warriors - +2800
'11 Mavericks - +2000
'19 Raptors - +1850
Damn... remarkable feats.
The Warriors were favorites going into the 2015 Finals.
Another day, another patented ttrolls tantrum.
tpols
12-04-2020, 01:37 PM
The Warriors were favorites going into the 2015 Finals.
Going into the season they were +2800 odds. They massively overachieved on their W/L expectation, but that's what the initial value of their talent was to start the season. It's crazy what hindsight bias does. In their own conference the Warriors were projected behind the thunder, clippers, spurs, mavs, and rockets. Cleveland was the title favorite at a dominant +275.
Kblaze8855
12-04-2020, 01:56 PM
There was a SI issue in 93 that predicted the Bulls win like 27 or 30 games without Jordan. Think it was SI. Doesn’t mean that’s what the team was actually capable of. You are who you are on the floor not what anyone thought you might be before games are played.
Anyone making title predictions in April based on last September? Of course not. Because nothing matters except how well you play. How well you were supposed to play is nothing.
tpols
12-04-2020, 01:59 PM
There was a SI issue in 93 that predicted the Bulls win like 27 or 30 games without Jordan. Think it was SI. Doesn’t mean that’s what the team was actually capable of. You are who you are on the floor not what anyone thought you might be before games are played.
Anyone making title predictions in April based on last September? Of course not. Because nothing matters except how well you play. How well you were supposed to play is nothing.
Of course how you were supposed to play matters. These are the odds right before the season started. Thats what reality was. If there was a 1v1 featuring charles barkley and charles oakley, and oakley won, we'd have to give barkley shit for it because the odds in his favor would be tremendous. Some teams overachieved and some underachieved, but that's what the projection was. The warriors were never considered some super team at the start.
Kblaze8855
12-04-2020, 02:04 PM
It’s certainly the reality that it was the casino odds. That just isn’t a basketball thing. It’s not a basketball reality. It’s a making money for the gambling industry thing.
How good a team plays is the only issue when it comes down to if they should win or not. How you thought they might play hypothetically has nothing to do with it.
Manny98
12-04-2020, 02:06 PM
2 of those teams benefited heavily from other teams star players getting injured
So only one of them was a remarkable feat
Kblaze8855
12-04-2020, 02:10 PM
By the way this is me on the Warriors in 2015:
They are the latest example of a team with immense chemistry and great coaching having its players individually credited with more ability than they have. They are hardly a team full of stars. Its one star a really great #2 and some good players. Its not a team that piece by piece would be labeled stacked compared to the historic teams that get that talk.
Which is still my opinion.
“Stacked” isn’t the word I’d use. But what does it matter when they play better basketball than teams that are?
The Warriors were not underdogs in any way once basketball was played.
And nothing before basketball is played means anything.
tpols
12-04-2020, 02:20 PM
Casinos aren't in the business of losing money. If they see a big favorite, they're not going to allow people to get a big payout off them winning. Which is why the line reflects the current perception at the time. More people that bet the favorite, more the payout drops and the lower the odds number is. Nobody was betting on the Warriors because they weren't even seen as top 5 in their own conference, hence their astronomical odds at the title.
The 1994 Bulls likewise were considered overachievers.
They failed to bring the Larry O'Brien trophy to the Windy City for the fourth straight year, however they certainly enjoyed one of the most overachieving seasons in sports history.
link (https://bleacherreport.com/articles/370455-life-without-michael-jordan-the-story-of-the-1993-94-chicago-bulls)
So even that doesn't hold up... yes, sometimes teams overachieve.
Kblaze8855
12-04-2020, 02:27 PM
So a guy who rails against public perception being wrong about this star and that one is now telling me that the public thinking a team is going to be great means it actually is.....and that advanced assumption means more to the matter of over/under achieving....than how good he team actually was on the court?
Perception of the masses having seen the teams in question play zero games means more than how good a team actually is when basketball is played.
That what you’re telling me right now?
You can only play a team as it is. You can’t play what such and such thought they would be in October. The teams you’re talking about never actually existed when the season started....so why is what they may have been in an alternate reality even worth reporting?
Nothing more funny than watching Kblaze ruthlessly bully ttrolls :oldlol:
tpols
12-04-2020, 02:37 PM
The teams you’re talking about never actually existed when the season started
You're not telling the truth again.
The Warriors were already a playoff team before 2015. Curry, Klay, Dray, and Iggy led them in playoff minutes in 2014 and the splash bros made the playoffs the previous year as well. Their talent was +2800. What the "masses" didn't see was that Kerr would flip their offensive system on its head to produce a higher level of teamwork. Hence them overachieving with the talent they had. That's simply what it was.
You're not telling the truth again.
The Warriors were already a playoff team before 2015. Curry, Klay, Dray, and Iggy led them in playoff minutes in 2014 and the splash bros made the playoffs the previous year as well. Their talent was +2800. What the "masses" didn't see was that Kerr would flip their offensive system on its head to produce a higher level of teamwork. Hence them overachieving with the talent they had. That's simply what it was.
People didn’t foresee Klay and Dray turning into all-star level players. That’s what changed things. Once they became that level of player, expectations were adjusted accordingly.
8Ball
12-04-2020, 02:41 PM
So a guy who rails against public perception being wrong about this star and that one is now telling me that the public thinking a team is going to be great means it actually is.....and that advanced assumption means more to the matter of over/under achieving....than how good he team actually was on the court?
Perception of the masses having seen the teams in question play zero games means more than how good a team actually is when basketball is played.
That what you’re telling me right now?
You can only play a team as it is. You can’t play what such and such thought they would be in October. The teams you’re talking about never actually existed when the season started....so why is what they may have been in an alternate reality even worth reporting?
https://i.pinimg.com/originals/ed/7b/19/ed7b19571cf9255f6c5b9f5632bc84b7.gif
How a team is put together pre-season and what a team looks like days before a finals is night and day.
Kblaze8855
12-04-2020, 02:46 PM
You're not telling the truth again.
The Warriors were already a playoff team before 2015. Curry, Klay, Dray, and Iggy led them in playoff minutes in 2014 and the splash bros made the playoffs the previous year as well. Their talent was +2800. What the "masses" didn't see was that Kerr would flip their offensive system on its head to produce a higher level of teamwork. Hence them overachieving with the talent they had. That's simply what it was.
If you think a team is going to be ok....and when they get on the floor they are top 10 or so all time...the “ok” team you imagined....never came to fruition.
That average team existed only in your head and perhaps in the past.
Neither of which mean anything in reality.
Predictions....are imaginary.
Godfather 3 was supposed to be great. But it wasn’t. When Dances with Wolves wins best picture....it didn’t “upset” Godfather 3....because Godfather 3 on the screen....wasn’t very good.
It does not matter what the movie or the team was “supposed” to be.
A movie is what it is. A team is what it is.
Your preseason assumptions aren’t worth a free throw.
In the words of Barts special Ed teacher on the simpsons when he said he was supposed to be in the 4th grade.....
https://youtu.be/Sz4KgGb9HzA
What you’re supposed to be doesn’t mean shit.
SouBeachTalents
12-04-2020, 02:49 PM
People didn’t foresee Klay and Dray turning into all-star level players. That’s what changed things. Once they became that level of player, expectations were adjusted accordingly.
Or frankly, Steph making the leap to MVP and legitimate ATG player. The guy had one All-NBA selection and never even finished top 5 in MVP voting heading into 2015, it's almost unheard of for an NBA player to make such a significant leap in play heading into their late 20's
tpols
12-04-2020, 03:04 PM
If one director is given a budget 10x higher than that of another director... and the wealthy movie producer gets trounced at the box office, how would that not matter? We're not allowed to point out the fella made a way better product with less to work with?
Kblaze8855
12-04-2020, 04:16 PM
If one director is given a budget 10x higher than that of another director... and the wealthy movie producer gets trounced at the box office, how would that not matter? We're not allowed to point out the fella made a way better product with less to work with?
When the issue is how good the movies are....of course it doesn’t matter. None of this shit means anything to reality.
Might as well outplay Kwame Brown then talk tough because he was supposed to be a hall of famer.
If he’s not actually playing well outplaying him means shit. And if the teams that are supposed to be good....aren’t...you get no extra credit for beating them.
They don’t make rings for “shoulda” because it’s all in your head.
HBK_Kliq_2
12-04-2020, 04:51 PM
And Kawhi had the biggest carry job in terms of total points/rebs/assists.
tpols
12-04-2020, 09:34 PM
And Kawhi had the biggest carry job in terms of total points/rebs/assists.
Yea the funny thing is the raptors were a high seed for quite a few years, 1st seed in 2018 in the East... and yet the odds maker's had them at an unreal +15,000 to win the title. Why? Because everybody knew they were fools gold. Nobody would dare bet on them... even if you could make 15 grand off 100 bucks.
Kawhi comes over? From +15,000 to +1850. That's how huge of a difference he made to their expectations... and what do you know? Turns out he takes them from a laughing stock choke artist squad to a title winning team while hitting some of the most absurd clutch shots ever seen.
HBK_Kliq_2
12-05-2020, 12:33 AM
Yea the funny thing is the raptors were a high seed for quite a few years, 1st seed in 2018 in the East... and yet the odds maker's had them at an unreal +15,000 to win the title. Why? Because everybody knew they were fools gold. Nobody would dare bet on them... even if you could make 15 grand off 100 bucks.
Kawhi comes over? From +15,000 to +1850. That's how huge of a difference he made to their expectations... and what do you know? Turns out he takes them from a laughing stock choke artist squad to a title winning team while hitting some of the most absurd clutch shots ever seen.
I agree, well said. Kawhi, curry and dirk are the best shooters for top 20 GOATS, so it makes sense why they would overcome the odds.
Smoke117
12-05-2020, 12:34 AM
And Kawhi had the biggest carry job in terms of total points/rebs/assists.
Kawhi was Lowry's sidekick.
Op acting as if the 2015 warriors never won 67 games in the said season
Stephonit
12-05-2020, 04:04 AM
Op acting as if the 2015 warriors never won 67 games in the said season
So the regular season counts? Who would have thought!
So the regular season counts? Who would have thought!
Lol and you act like that gerbil was the only one responsible for their season turnaround.
pandiani17
12-05-2020, 08:18 AM
As they have told you already, those predictions were than in pre-season, so they shouldn't be taken too serious. For example, the '15 Warriors were massive favorites to win the chip before the play-offs started, and they were supposed to sweep the floor with the Love-less Cavs in the finals. It could be interesting, though, to remember surprising champions of the past, especially from the 70's or 80's, from long gone eras. I started watching NBA in the 99-00 seasons and since then IMO the most unexpected ones have been Pistons in 2004 (similar to the Raptors in 2019), Mavs in 2011 (though these guys had a very good roster) and the Raptors in 2019. Were there these types of champions in the previous eras? Were Seattle or Washington favorites when they won all in the late 70s?
15 warriors nor raptors were underdogs. those were relatively easily finals with injury luck.
tpols
12-05-2020, 07:41 PM
15 warriors nor raptors were underdogs. those were relatively easily finals with injury luck.
There was injury luck in both cases no doubt... but the Warriors were still underdogs going into the 2016 season. +480 to the Cav's +280. People thought with Kyrie and Love back, the dubs were 2:1 dogs. So they would've been underdogs regardless of injury.
The raptors did benefit from the Warriors injuries but they had to go through hell just to get to the Finals. Philly with 4 all stars and the Bucks were better than any team in the East from 2011 to 2018. I mean... a rookie Jason Tatum and Terry Rozier led Celtics were the best comp in 2018 and the Craptors with Lowry and Derozan were the best before that.
There was injury luck in both cases no doubt... but the Warriors were still underdogs going into the 2016 season. +480 to the Cav's +280. People thought with Kyrie and Love back, the dubs were 2:1 dogs. So they would've been underdogs regardless of injury.
The raptors did benefit from the Warriors injuries but they had to go through hell just to get to the Finals. Philly with 4 all stars and the Bucks were better than any team in the East from 2011 to 2018. I mean... a rookie led Jason Tatum and Terry Rozier led Celtics were the best comp in 2018 and the Craptors with Lowry and Derozan were the best before that.
you've been campaigning forever. I get it.
lebron >> kobe or durant or curry or kawhi
3ball
12-05-2020, 07:48 PM
in the past decade...
'15 Warriors - +2800
'11 Mavericks - +2000
'19 Raptors - +1850
Damn... remarkable feats.
It's funny because kawhi is considered bad for losing in 2020 after goating in 2019, while lebron is good for being lottery in 2019 and then sharing the load in 2020
It's funny because kawhi is considered bad for losing in 2020 after goating in 2019, while lebron is good for being lottery in 2019 and then sharing the load in 2020
kd was out and klay got injured
GOATing :oldlol:
GOATing is more like leading both teams in every stat leading the only 3-1 comeback in finals history :roll:
tpols
12-05-2020, 07:54 PM
It's funny because kawhi is considered bad for losing in 2020 after goating in 2019, while lebron is good for being lottery in 2019 and then sharing the load in 2020
The Lakers had better odds to win the title in 2019 than the Warriors did in 2015. And they couldn't even make the playoffs. Massive underachievement.
The Laker's odds at a title quadrupled when AD came on board. Who would have thought? I see in the recent "Top 5 players" thread AD is on every list and so is Lebron. Yet... no other players on that list are on the same team. It's a joke lol.
coin24
12-05-2020, 07:59 PM
The Lakers had better odds to win the title in 2019 than the Warriors did in 2015. And they couldn't even make the playoffs. Massive underachievement.
The Laker's odds at a title quadrupled when AD came on board. Who would have thought? I see in the recent "Top 5 players" thread AD is on every list and so is Lebron. Yet... no other players on that list are on the same team. It's a joke lol.
Bran without a superstar is a lottery team..
He couldn’t hang in the west without daddy di.ck davis
The Lakers had better odds to win the title in 2019 than the Warriors did in 2015. And they couldn't even make the playoffs. Massive underachievement.
The Laker's odds at a title quadrupled when AD came on board. Who would have thought? I see in the recent "Top 5 players" thread AD is on every list and so is Lebron. Yet... no other players on that list are on the same team. It's a joke lol.
2019 lakers - are you serious? :roll:
SATAN
12-05-2020, 08:08 PM
OP is literally wrong about everything.What a weirdo.
tpols
12-05-2020, 08:12 PM
2019 lakers - are you serious? :roll:
Educate yourself.
link (https://www.basketball-reference.com/leagues/NBA_2019_preseason_odds.html)
Lakers were 4th in the league favorites in 2019.
Educate yourself.
link (https://www.basketball-reference.com/leagues/NBA_2019_preseason_odds.html)
Lakers were 4th in the league favorites in 2019.
my dude that team was young and fell apart with lefranchise for just two weeks. there wasnt a pippen to carry the load.
God bless ad. 4 finals mvps.
tpols
12-05-2020, 08:40 PM
there wasnt a pippen
But there was.
Brandon Ingram averaged 24/6/4 with great advanced metrics this year.
LAmbruh
12-05-2020, 09:11 PM
Damn, OP getting smacked around by everyone ITT
Get those tissues and diapers stocked for another miserable year little fella :applause:
LAmbruh
12-05-2020, 09:16 PM
my dude that team was young and fell apart with lefranchise for just two weeks. there wasnt a pippen to carry the load.
God bless ad. 4 finals mvps.
4 o dem thangz :pimp:
https://media.giphy.com/media/mpB75VlHUWWmIX3WbN/giphy.gif
Ttrolls pretending Ingram was anything close to a positive player at any point in his career before 2020 when he learned how to shoot is low even for his standards.
4 o dem thangz :pimp:
https://media.giphy.com/media/mpB75VlHUWWmIX3WbN/giphy.gif
It’s been a rough time for OP ever since the NBA restart happened. Poor fella even managed to convince himself the Rockets were beating the Lakers. Whoops :lol
LAmbruh
12-05-2020, 10:01 PM
It’s been a rough time for OP ever since the NBA restart happened. Poor fella even managed to convince himself the Rockets were beating the Lakers. Whoops :lol
Can't blame him
Last time ole' Brick sniffed a playoff bout his final moments were laying on his back in a pile of Westbrook and Harden's jizz
Of course he was duped into thinking the West was wild
4-1 quickie, ouch
https://i.postimg.cc/zD6NvKB1/url-https-california-times-brightspot-s3-amazonaws.jpg (https://postimages.org/)
There was injury luck in both cases no doubt... but the Warriors were still underdogs going into the 2016 season. +480 to the Cav's +280. People thought with Kyrie and Love back, the dubs were 2:1 dogs. So they would've been underdogs regardless of injury.
The raptors did benefit from the Warriors injuries but they had to go through hell just to get to the Finals. Philly with 4 all stars and the Bucks were better than any team in the East from 2011 to 2018. I mean... a rookie Jason Tatum and Terry Rozier led Celtics were the best comp in 2018 and the Craptors with Lowry and Derozan were the best before that.
2019 philly sucked, even if they had butler with them back then. They weren't a superteam by any standards nor the warriors of the east that hbk dick make them seem to be.
As a matter of fact, in their last five seasons, they never even won at least 55 games, no division titles and no finals trips, let alone ecf trips. Go figure.
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