Did Wilt and his teams really underperform in the playoffs every single year?

[coastalmarker99]

There are a lot of myths about Wilt, both good and bad.

One persistent myth is: "Wilt and his teams played great in the regular season but then choked and underperformed in the playoffs."

This thread will examine this myth.


This thread:
Takes Wilt's teams' regular season SRS.
Compares this SRS to the regular season SRS of each PO opponent.
Uses SRS difference between teams and Pythagorean theory to calculate Wilt's teams' EXPECTED WINS in each playoff series.
Compares EXPECTED WINS vs. ACTUAL WINS.


For example, Wilt's first PO series was in 1960 vs Syracuse). Warriors & Syracuse were evenly matched in SRS (2.77 each).

With an SRS difference of 0.00, the Warriors were expected to win 1.5 games in a 3-game series. In fact, the Warriors won 3-0.

Thus, 1.5 wins ABOVE expected wins.



In 160 PO games, Wilt's teams won 6.7 MORE games than expected.

Overall, Wilt's teams did NOT underperform!

In Wilt's 29 PO series:
12x Wilt's teams were >0.5 wins BETTER than expected.
11x at expected wins (between -0.5 and +0.5).
6x had FEWER (< -0.5) wins than expected


Therefore in 23 of 29 series, Wilt's teams won more or as many games as expected based on RS SRS.

That's 79%!

Only 21% of the time did Wilt's teams "underperform."

(Note: This is a team stat. There were series that Wilt's teams/TEAMMATES underperformed while Wilt played well.)



Wilt's teams had fewer than expected wins in 6 series:

1961 vs. Syracuse: 3-game series:
Expected wins: 1.4; actually won 0 (-1.4)

1964 vs. Celtics: 5 gms
Exp: 2.1; won 1 (-1.1)

1966 vs. Celtics: 5 gms
Exp. 2.5; won 1 (-1.5)

1968 vs. Celtics: 7 gms
Exp 4.4, won 3 (-1.4)




1973 vs. Bulls: 7 games
Exp. 4.5 wins; actually won 4.
(At -0.5 wins below expectation, this is a close call. You could say that the Lakers matched expectation. But they probably should have won in 6.)

1973 vs. Knicks: 5 gms
Exp. 2.8; won 1 (-1.8)


Rest of Wilt's PO series vs. Russell's Celtics:

1960: 6 gms
Exp: 2.1; won 3 (-0.1: as expected)

1962: 7 gms
Exp: 2.3; won 3 (+0.7: OVERPERFORMED)

1965: 7 gms
Exp: 1.9; won 3 (+1.1: OVER)

1967: 5 gms
Exp: 2.7; won 4 (+2.3: OVER)

1969: 7 gms
Exp: 3.2; won 3 (-0.2: as expected)



In 8 series vs Russell's Celtics:

Wilt's teams:
3x overperformed
2x won as many games as expected
3x underperformed

In 49 PO games vs. Celtics, Wilt's teams won -1.3 games fewer than expected.



Part of the myth is that "Wilt was on a superteam with Baylor and West on the Lakers. So Wilt should have won the championship all 5 years."

First, Baylor played in only 2 POs with Wilt. For the other 3 PO, he was injured.
West also was injured 1 PO.
And Wilt injured in 1 RS.


Second, if we actually look at expected wins, we find that Lakers consistently overperformed or performed as expected for 4 straight PO runs

In 11 PO series, 1969-72:
7x overperformed by +0.5 or more wins
4x performed as expected (between -0.5 and +0.5)
ZERO TIMES underperformed


Only in 1973 did Wilt's Lakers ever underperform in a PO series:

Vs. Bulls: 7 games
Exp. 4.5 wins; won 4 (-0.5, on the borderline between underperformed and performed as expected).

Vs. Warriors: 5 gms
Exp: 2.6; won 4 (+1.4: over)

Vs. Knicks: 5 gms
Exp: 2.8; won 1 (-1.8)


Overall, Wilt's teams did NOT underperform in POs.

In 160 PO games, Wilt's teams won 6.7 MORE games than expected.

29 PO series:
12x Wilt's teams were >0.5 wins MORE than expected.
11x at expected wins (between -0.5 and +0.5).
6x (21%) had FEWER (< -0.5) wins than expected

[coastalmarker99]

The 62, '65, and '70 playoffs are even more impressive for Wilt and his teams considering:


'62: Tom Gola is injured vs Celtics

'65: Larry Costello, arguably their 2nd best player that year, injured during the playoffs.


'70: Happy Hairston is injured the entire playoffs and struggles heavily and Wilt miraculously came back from a ruptured knee but wasn't the same player any more.


With Larry Costello basically out of the series in 1965 the talent, disparity between the two teams was overwhelming and it's crazy to think Wilt even got them that far in the first place.

Fully healthy I think they almost certainly win that series and take home the ring that year against a Baylor less Lakers team.

[Psileas]

Wilt did not underperform in the playoffs when all things are taken into account. His "drawback", if we can call it so, is that he wasn't among the players who coasted in the regular season. He only coasted in the preseason and good for him.
I've shown in the past that Wilt in the playoffs had just as many series in which he exceeded his regular season scoring against his respective opponents as vice-versa. He was also an all-time great performer in do-or-die games. Not to mention that, when crucial moments are concerned, there are no famous playoff blunders/famous missed playoff FT's etc by Wilt the way there exist for Malone or Isiah or even Russell and Magic. On the contrary, we know that he sank the game-winning FT's in 2 playoff games and in general has some history of making crucial FT's. So, it's obviously a myth that he went into choking mode in the playoffs. His underperformances and bad moments weren't more or worse than the ones of other legends who aren't ever called chokers.
Btw, Hairston was also injured in the most crucial parts of the 1973 season, right? That was a 17/14 player before the injury and the Lakers were 24-4 with him. He could only manage a few minutes of playing in the '73 playoffs and obviously had no impact.

[Kiddlovesnets]

We dont know for sure, there was no pre-season odds data available until 1984 so we wont be able to compare the talent level on Wilt's teams against the Celtics and others.

[dankok8]

His teams clearly underperformed from 1968 to 1970. These are the years that hurt his legacy for me.

[light]

He didn't win enough. That remains true regardless of how you want to look at him.