How much is load management helping current players?

[dankok8]

A lot is made recently about the increased pace and league wide efficiency and rightfully so.

But how much does load management help current players compared to past eras?

Today's stars are playing fewer minutes than ever; on a per game basis, because of sitting out games and also partly because many recent seasons are shorter (2011-2012, 2019-2020, 2020-2021).

For example Julius Randle is the minutes leader for the current season. He will end up with roughly 2650 minutes played if he doesn't sit out any games. In 2000-2001, which is 20 years ago, he would rank 58th in minutes played.

And just to show that this isn't a one year trend. If we look at the 2018-2019 season which had a full 82 game schedule, the minutes leader was Bradley Beal with 3028. That would still rank 21st in 2000-2001. Harden Harden who was second in minutes that season with 2867 would rank 34th in 2000-2001. Even guys who are the biggest workhorses in this era are carrying very light workloads.

Of course teams resting stars also reduces the competitiveness of regular season games and generally makes the minutes that are played by these players lower intensity minutes as well. I think playing 35 minutes in a regular season game today could be less taxing than playing 35 minutes in a regular season game 20 years ago. However this is hard to quantify.

When looking at the biggest stars of this era, their workload have been extremely reduced in recent seasons. Here are their cumulative minute totals in the past 7 seasons, 2014-2015 to present. Note that these players except Lebron are actually in their prime years when looking at age.

James Harden: 18512 (36.7 mpg)
Russell Westbrook: 17696 (35.4 mpg)
Giannis Antetokounmpo: 17152 (33.7 mpg)
Lebron James: 16723 (35.9 mpg)
Anthony Davis: 15087 (35.1 mpg)
Stephen Curry: 14127 (33.3 mpg)
Kawhi Leonard: 12696 (32.9 mpg)
Kevin Durant: 11626 (34.4 mpg)

Load management has three major implications:

1) Today's players are much better positioned to excel in the postseason. They are much fresher when the playoffs arrive. It's a valid question for instance how Shaq would have fared knowing his conditioning issues if he could have slashed his minutes by 30%? It's very likely he could have avoided many small injuries. Would his playoff numbers be even higher? And should someone like Kawhi who is clearly resting in the regular season have an asterisk beside his playoff numbers? It's a legit question whether he could do what he was doing if he played 38 mpg for about 80 games before the playoffs the way stars in past eras had to.

2) Statistics are impossible to compare across eras. For instance Embiid is having a fantastic season averaging 29/11 on great efficiency and strong defense but he only played 1537 minutes (49 games). I don't know how I would compare that with 1989-1990 Ewing who played a full season with 3165 minutes (82 games) and put up similar numbers. It seems unfair to Ewing to compare his stats with someone who played half the minutes.

3) It reduces the cumulative wear and tear and extends careers. It should be taken into account more when considering longevity. Perhaps when looking at longevity, total minutes played should be the more used metric not games played or seasons. But even that is an oversimplified view. It's more about how many minutes are played in a short span than a cumulative total. Playing 40 mpg for one 82 game season is much more taxing on the body that playing 20 mpg for two 82 game seasons.

[Rysio]

Not helping at all. Players today are not real pros I would consider them semi pros. If your not playing 40+ minutes a game your just soft.

[8Ball]

There is more athleticism and running today than there was before.

If we slowed the game down and brought in lower skilled players to slowly walk up and down the court you would see less injuries.

[dankok8]

Look at some of these minute hauls... for example these two players at roughly the same ages:

Durant 7 seasons (2015-2021): 11626 minutes
Kobe 7 seasons (2006-2012): 20415 minutes

That didn't/won't have a positive effect on KD's playoff numbers in recent years or longevity?

[Lebron23]

Look at some of these minute hauls... for example these two players at roughly the same ages:

Durant 7 seasons (2015-2021): 11626 minutes
Kobe 7 seasons (2006-2012): 20415 minutes

That didn't/won't have a positive effect on KD's playoff numbers in recent years or longevity?

It might affect the Nets team chemistry in the playoffs. 3 ball dominant players won't work in the playoffs.

[HoopsNY]

You hit it on the nail. Added to this fact was that in the 80s, for example, teams routinely played more games in a shorter stretch of time. Teams sometimes played 4 games in 5 nights. In some cases, 5 games in 6 nights. This level of play is often left out of the conversation when production is discussed.

[plowking]

There is more athleticism and running today than there was before.

If we slowed the game down and brought in lower skilled players to slowly walk up and down the court you would see less injuries.


This.

The game is far more athletic and grueling on the body than it was before. The dynamism and speed of the game is just different than what it was before. For as many missed plays and lapses on defense there are today, there were a whole lot more back in the day.

These guys are far more valuable assets than what they were before. They are better looked after and protected than before, but that is because far more is expected of them on the court as well.

[dankok8]

You hit it on the nail. Added to this fact was that in the 80s, for example, teams routinely played more games in a shorter stretch of time. Teams sometimes played 4 games in 5 nights. In some cases, 5 games in 6 nights. This level of play is often left out of the conversation when production is discussed.

The further we go back in history the more insane the difference is. In the 60's, the NBA was played at a pace of 120 with insanely hard fouls and yet guys were logging 40+ minutes per game. Wilt was playing 46+ for basically his entire career.

From my Kobe vs. KD example, I can't imagine how much better Kobe's playoff numbers would have been in those peak years if he could have played 20-30% fewer minutes in the regular season. And how much better his longevity would have been as well with way less wear and tear.

[FKAri]

This.

The game is far more athletic and grueling on the body than it was before. The dynamism and speed of the game is just different than what it was before. For as many missed plays and lapses on defense there are today, there were a whole lot more back in the day.

These guys are far more valuable assets than what they were before. They are better looked after and protected than before, but that is because far more is expected of them on the court as well.

You still post here? wtf?

Anyways, I agree with this. The ability to change direction, explosion and quickness are a bigger part of today's game and it's absolutely brutal on the joints/muscles. All things being equal modern basketball will result in more injuries than yesteryear.

[8Ball]

This.

The game is far more athletic and grueling on the body than it was before. The dynamism and speed of the game is just different than what it was before. For as many missed plays and lapses on defense there are today, there were a whole lot more back in the day.

These guys are far more valuable assets than what they were before. They are better looked after and protected than before, but that is because far more is expected of them on the court as well.

If you make players play a vertical game of running up and down the court and standing in the paint the injuries to the joint areas would go down.

This is why bigs are being cycled out, they can't move laterally.


Jamal Murray tore his ACL by planting all his weight on one knee trying to euro step side to side in the lane full speed. If Murray had just posted up some guard and did a fadeaway he wouldn't have tore his knee.

[Bronbron23]

If you make players play a vertical game of running up and down the court and standing in the paint the injuries to the joint areas would go down.

This is why bigs are being cycled out, they can't move laterally.


Jamal Murray tore his ACL by planting all his weight on one knee trying to euro step side to side in the lane full speed. If Murray had just posted up some guard and did a fadeaway he wouldn't have tore his knee.

There have been studies on this and most come to the same conclusion and cause which is specialized training from a young age. The kids coming up now almost all focus on just basketball. They're doing the same movements over and over again. Kids in previous generations played multiple sports and in general where way more active doing many different activities. Even something as normal as rinding a bike. Kids aren't doing these things anymore. They play basketball and that's pretty much it. They're getting intense specific training before they're teenagers. Some kids are doing 2 or 3 training sessions a day.

When i was growing up we did everything. We biked everywhere and evey day was different. One day we might play basketball the next could be football,baseball, swimming, tennis or even ground hockey. We all played multiple sports competitively also. Almost everyone played baseball, football and basketball. my little cousins and nephew's not doing any of that. They don't bike because you can't ride on the sidewalk and you have to wear a helmet and they don't play anything but basketball leisurely or competitively.

[Lebron23]

The further we go back in history the more insane the difference is. In the 60's, the NBA was played at a pace of 120 with insanely hard fouls and yet guys were logging 40+ minutes per game. Wilt was playing 46+ for basically his entire career.

From my Kobe vs. KD example, I can't imagine how much better Kobe's playoff numbers would have been in those peak years if he could have played 20-30% fewer minutes in the regular season. And how much better his longevity would have been as well with way less wear and tear.


He wouldn't be top 10 in scoring if Kobe load managed. Anyway he played limited minutes in his first two nba seasons. Only averaged over 20 ppg in his 3rd nba season.

[Hey Yo]

Look at some of these minute hauls... for example these two players at roughly the same ages:

Durant 7 seasons (2015-2021): 11626 minutes
Kobe 7 seasons (2006-2012): 20415 minutes

That didn't/won't have a positive effect on KD's playoff numbers in recent years or longevity?

Dude.... you realize how much time KD missed from 2015 - 2021? Of course you do cause that's why you chose those years for the 2 players.

:sleeping

[Marchesk]

There is more athleticism and running today than there was before.

If we slowed the game down and brought in lower skilled players to slowly walk up and down the court you would see less injuries.

Does that mean the dudes in the 60s were in the best shape?

[Lebron23]

Dude.... you realize how much time KD missed from 2015 - 2021? Of course you do cause that's why you chose those years for the 2 players.

:sleeping

Durant tore his acl at 30. Kobe was healthy during those years

[8Ball]

There have been studies on this and most come to the same conclusion and cause which is specialized training from a young age. The kids coming up now almost all focus on just basketball. They're doing the same movements over and over again. Kids in previous generations played multiple sports and in general where way more active doing many different activities. Even something as normal as rinding a bike. Kids aren't doing these things anymore. They play basketball and that's pretty much it. They're getting intense specific training before they're teenagers. Some kids are doing 2 or 3 training sessions a day.

When i was growing up we did everything. We biked everywhere and evey day was different. One day we might play basketball the next could be football,baseball, swimming, tennis or even ground hockey. We all played multiple sports competitively also. Almost everyone played baseball, football and basketball. my little cousins and nephew's not doing any of that. They don't bike because you can't ride on the sidewalk and you have to wear a helmet and they don't play anything but basketball leisurely or competitively.

Partially true.

But doing explosive repetitive movements that put strain on your tendons is different. Running down hill in traffic on fast break is a lot more dangerous to the joints than doing a post up fade away.

Big men don't normally blow out their knees, they have feet problem from all the weight putting stress on the foot.


Humans aren't evolved to move laterally. We just don't do it often and our joints have not adapted to high lateral movements compared to running a straight line.

[999Guy]

Who is actually fresh? Almost every one is injured.

And players play more possessions than before due to pace. The minutes difference is offset.

Also, why would being fresh only help on offense?

If everybody is “load managed”, what is the competitive advantage?

If you think stats aren’t comparable to before, that’s obvious. Space and pace is all you have to mention. Load managing theories are dumb.

[ArbitraryWater]

Look at some of these minute hauls... for example these two players at roughly the same ages:

Durant 7 seasons (2015-2021): 11626 minutes
Kobe 7 seasons (2006-2012): 20415 minutes

That didn't/won't have a positive effect on KD's playoff numbers in recent years or longevity?

well KD missed a year lol

[Hey Yo]

Durant tore his acl at 30. Kobe was healthy during those years

Plus KD missed 55 games in 2015..... the first year the OP started with.

[Manny98]

LeBron has a massive load that he's ready to unload on the rest of the league come playoff time

[Bronbron23]

Partially true.

But doing explosive repetitive movements that put strain on your tendons is different. Running down hill in traffic on fast break is a lot more dangerous to the joints than doing a post up fade away.

Big men don't normally blow out their knees, they have feet problem from all the weight putting stress on the foot.


Humans aren't evolved to move laterally. We just don't do it often and our joints have not adapted to high lateral movements compared to running a straight line.

Yeah maybe. The only thing that makes wonder if that's true is looking at running backs and to a lesser degree receivers in the nfl. They're more explosive than basketball players and they move laterally just as much and in a much more expensive manner and football player don't seem to get injured as much as they did 30 years ago.

[mehyaM24]

Yeah maybe. The only thing that makes wonder if that's true is looking at running backs and to a lesser degree receivers in the nfl. They're more explosive than basketball players and they move laterally just as much and in a much more expensive manner and football player don't seem to get injured as much as they did 30 years ago.

good point. there might be more freak injuries now, but todays players are also playing longer than ever. back then the game was more physically taxing, and when guys hit their early 30s they would be on their last legs. something like "load management" would be seen as quitting.

so to answer op, load management will help extend a career. however i also think there are more freak injuries, because there are better athletes.

[SouBeachTalents]

I'll never be convinced otherwise that the emphasis on rangz doesn't play a factor in this. Why should a player go all out in the regular season and risk injury and wear & tear for the playoffs when the only thing they'll be judged on anyway is if they win a championship? Look at Westbrook, Harden, & Giannis, how many people here are praising their regular season exploits, putting up phenomenal numbers while (besides Westbrook) leading their teams to top records in the league? Once they lost in the playoffs, nobody legitimately gave a shit about any of that, and in the end they got clowned for losing anyway.

It's a 100% fact that Durant missing most of the season but averaging 32/6/6 in the playoffs on his way to a 3rd FMVP will have people claiming he's a top 10 player of all time, while if he instead balled out in the regular season, had an MVP caliber year but lost in the playoffs he'd literally get 1% of the credit and boost to his legacy.

In addition to superteams, players not giving a fck about the regular season is another repercussion of the only rangz matter philosophy. Guaranteed if the Suns or Jazz lose in the first 2 rounds nobody here is going to praise CP3 or Gobert for leading their teams to top seeds, they're just going to get clowned for being regular season frauds.

[Bronbron23]

good point. there might be more freak injuries now, but todays players are also playing longer than ever. back then the game was more physically taxing, and when guys hit their early 30s they would be on their last legs. something like "load management" would be seen as quitting.

so to answer op, load management will help extend a career. however i also think there are more freak injuries, because there are better athletes.

Yeah it definitely seems like guys were burning out faster back then. Barkley talked about practice being a major factor. He said they practiced way more back then and practices were tougher and more physical than games. It basically turned a 82 game season into a 110 game season.

Now teams rarely practice and when they do they're more just light shoot arounds and going over sets.

[dankok8]

well KD missed a year lol

Sure some of it is injuries and some of it is the last two being shorter seasons as well. But some of it is load management too.

KD averaged 34.4 mpg in the games he did play in that span and Kobe averaged 38.2 mpg. That's not an insignificant difference in minutes at all. Works out to almost one extra season worth of floor time over 7 seasons.


I'll never be convinced otherwise that the emphasis on rangz doesn't play a factor in this. Why should a player go all out in the regular season and risk injury and wear & tear for the playoffs when the only thing they'll be judged on anyway is if they win a championship? Look at Westbrook, Harden, & Giannis, how many people here are praising their regular season exploits, putting up phenomenal numbers while (besides Westbrook) leading their teams to top records in the league? Once they lost in the playoffs, nobody legitimately gave a shit about any of that, and in the end they got clowned for losing anyway.

It's a 100% fact that Durant missing most of the season but averaging 32/6/6 in the playoffs on his way to a 3rd FMVP will have people claiming he's a top 10 player of all time, while if he instead balled out in the regular season, had an MVP caliber year but lost in the playoffs he'd literally get 1% of the credit and boost to his legacy.

In addition to superteams, players not giving a fck about the regular season is another repercussion of the only rangz matter philosophy. Guaranteed if the Suns or Jazz lose in the first 2 rounds nobody here is going to praise CP3 or Gobert for leading their teams to top seeds, they're just going to get clowned for being regular season frauds.

Good point. The example you gave with Durant is unfortunately very true.

But hasn't this been true since the beginning of time? Yet guys didn't cruise in the regular season like they do now. It's a legitimate question how many more rings and accolades past legends could have accumulated had they had the same luxury of reduced minutes and rest games.

[8Ball]

Guys cruise more because sport science tells them they have to manage their bodies for longevity. The paychecks are so huge right now nobody wants to be the next IT / Oladipo / Cousins where they get injured right before their $100M payday.

Teams like the Warriors hook their players him to baseline measurements at start of season and throughout the season to measure how much stress is being put on their joints.

And if the measurements get too much they tone things down with "Load Management" or "Injury Management".

[RRR3]

You do realize these players are producing more per minute due to pace right? Players are playing less minutes because they’re doing more in the minutes they play. There’s not as much standing around or resting anymore cuz the game is too fast. Giannis averaged peak Shaq numbers playing like 31 MPG last year.

[SouBeachTalents]

Good point. The example you gave with Durant is unfortunately very true.

But hasn't this been true since the beginning of time? Yet guys didn't cruise in the regular season like they do now. It's a legitimate question how many more rings and accolades past legends could have accumulated had they had the same luxury of reduced minutes and rest games.
I really couldn't tell you why it changed to this dramatic an effect, but I'd say since the Warriors won 73 games and lost the Finals the regular season has completely fallen off in significance. The playoffs always held precedent of course, but I felt like the regular season used to mean something, people used to care about who'd win MVP, which players led their teams to the best records, which player would lead the league in scoring. I remember people used to actually look back fondly on epic regular seasons that had no playoff success like '03 McGrady, '06 Kobe, '09 Wade etc.

But over the last 5 years or so that's completely changed, now the regular season is almost treated like the preseason, with the playoffs getting 100% of the priority. And when everyone's judged almost solely on winning titles anyway, maybe today's players and teams realize nothing you do in the regular season is appreciated anyway, might as well focus all of your energy and effort for the two month grind in the postseason

[Shooter]

Ask Jordan, he took 2 years off :roll::roll:

[dankok8]

I really couldn't tell you why it changed to this dramatic an effect, but I'd say since the Warriors won 73 games and lost the Finals the regular season has completely fallen off in significance. The playoffs always held precedent of course, but I felt like the regular season used to mean something, people used to care about who'd win MVP, which players led their teams to the best records, which player would lead the league in scoring. I remember people used to actually look back fondly on epic regular seasons that had no playoff success like '03 McGrady, '06 Kobe, '09 Wade etc.

But over the last 5 years or so that's completely changed, now the regular season is almost treated like the preseason, with the playoffs getting 100% of the priority. And when everyone's judged almost solely on winning titles anyway, maybe today's players and teams realize nothing you do in the regular season is appreciated anyway, might as well focus all of your energy and effort for the two month grind in the postseason

I agree.

So how would you compare a player who played hard in the regular season and the playoffs vs. a player who cruised in the regular season then played hard in the playoffs? It seems a bit unfair to just compare their playoff numbers without context when the first guy is realistically much more fatigued by playoff time.

[Lebron23]

Ask Jordan, he took 2 years off :roll::roll:

Hakeem's rockets would have beaten them in the finals.

[Bronbron23]

Ask Jordan, he took 2 years off :roll::roll:

Why not just ask your momz. I hear she's great at managing loads:oldlol:

[Shooter]

Ask the pioneer of load management, Mr. 2 Years off, Michael Fraudon himself.

[HBK_Kliq_2]

Well clippers just moved into #6 defense tonight. This will be the 7th season that kawhi is anchoring a top 6 defense. So kawhi is still good enough to load manage and still lead these elite teams in VORP every single season? If he's that good, more power to him. That's why they call him Kawin Leonard (aka highest reg season and playoff win percentage).

[iamgine]

I agree.

So how would you compare a player who played hard in the regular season and the playoffs vs. a player who cruised in the regular season then played hard in the playoffs? It seems a bit unfair to just compare their playoff numbers without context when the first guy is realistically much more fatigued by playoff time.

Logically that makes sense but I don't think in the real world it's works that way. I don't think performance really suffer until a certain point of fatigue. It might even hinder future performance if you regularly cruise.