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View Full Version : TS% is the best measure of scoring efficiency -- but it's not the be-all & end-all



Im Still Ballin
07-31-2021, 06:14 PM
It doesn't tell us how and where a player scores. It's not going to give you a good understanding of a player's efficiency, situationally speaking. I find significant value for other statistics/metrics, such as:


- Play type stats
- Distance/heat map stats
- eFG%
- FT% (obviously)

TS% is a number we love to throw out on the internet -- especially guys like RRR3 -- because it's a summary of efficiency. We need to make sure that we understand it in the right context.

For example, here are some interesting TS% cases:

Jimmy Butler just had a 60.7 TS% season, despite being a terrible 3pt shooter, and mediocre midrange shooter. His TS% was so high because of 3 things:


- Efficient volume scoring in the paint
- Extremely high free throw rate
- Great free throw shooting

An efficient slasher, with fantastic free throw shooting, but horrendous perimeter shooting.

Another interesting TS% case: Larry Bird vs. Magic Johnson:

Most people would assume that Larry Bird's career TS% would be higher than Magic's, because he's a great shooter. Well, they'd be wrong:


Larry Bird: 56.4 TS%
Magic Johnson: 61.0 TS%

Despite being a better free throw shooter, and a superior perimeter shooter, Magic smokes him. Why? Because Magic took less shots, limiting himself to only efficient paint points, and had a higher free throw rate.

There are other examples, but you get the idea.

Point of thread: TS% is not everything. We need to avoid simplistic takes that ignore the multifaceted, complex nuances of basketball. I see a lot of guys *cough* RRR3 *cough* that boil everything down to simply shooting and spacing. We shouldn't be surprised if LA with Westbrook turns out to be a success.

HBK_Kliq_2
07-31-2021, 06:37 PM
It might not be perfect but it's by far the best stat to use for efficiency.

Kawhi's 732 points on 62% TS was the GOAT run when looking at total points and TS

AirBonner
07-31-2021, 06:42 PM
It might not be perfect but it's by far the best stat to use for efficiency.

Kawhi's 732 points on 62% TS was the GOAT run when looking at total points and TS

Didn’t Kawhi lose a 3-1 lead to Jokic?

Im Still Ballin
07-31-2021, 06:42 PM
It might not be perfect but it's by far the best stat to use for efficiency.

Kawhi's 732 points on 62% TS was the GOAT run when looking at total points and TS

Right; but that 62% TS doesn't tell the full story. Kawhi's eFG%, FT%, play type, and heatmap/distance stats were probably awesome. He's a diverse scorer, as we know.

Hey Yo
07-31-2021, 06:56 PM
Free throws are exactly that, uncontested.

I realize not all FGA are going to be contested, but know for sure some of them will be and some will be more difficult than others.

That's why I favor FG%.

Locked_Up_Tonight
07-31-2021, 06:56 PM
TS% doesn't take into account for degree of difficulty with shots. And great players have to make something out of nothing so many times it brings their efficiency down. And even superstars of today are so worried about their averages that they don't even attempt certain shots to "protect their numbers."

It is why watching the games and eye test matters.

Im Still Ballin
07-31-2021, 06:57 PM
Free throws are exactly that, uncontested.

I realize not all FGA are going to be contested, but know for sure some of them will be and some will be more difficult than others.

That's why I favor FG%.

eFG% would be better, as it accounts for the value of the 3pt shot. I like to look at it for a 'live-possession' equivalent to TS%.

Im Still Ballin
07-31-2021, 07:00 PM
TS% doesn't take into account for degree of difficulty with shots. And great players have to make something out of nothing so many times it brings their efficiency down. And even superstars of today are so worried about their averages that they don't even attempt certain shots to "protect their numbers."

It is why watching the games and eye test matters.

Correct. Luka is a great example of someone how takes a lot of difficult shots. The value that has for his team as a whole, offensively speaking, is immense.

Axe
07-31-2021, 07:36 PM
Wrong. PER is much better as a whole, scoring included. ;)

97 bulls
07-31-2021, 07:58 PM
Context needs to be considered with all statistics.

GrayGoat
07-31-2021, 08:13 PM
Context needs to be considered with all statistics.

And opponent

ELITEpower23
07-31-2021, 08:20 PM
It might not be perfect but it's by far the best stat to use for efficiency.

Kawhi's 732 points on 62% TS was the GOAT run when looking at total points and TS

If you can't get your PER over 30 then you don't belong in any playoff GOAT runs. There have been 9 of these and Kawhi has zero of them because he just isn't on that level.