How much of drafting is luck? How much is skill?

[Shooter]

Part of the draft is your drafting order, which does have an element of luck. Here are a few examples of what I mean:

2006 Draft
1st: Andrea Bargnani
3rd: Adam Morrison

2007 Draft
1st: Greg Oden

2008 Draft
2nd: Michael Beasley (picked over: Westbrook, Love, Gallinari, Ibaka)

2009 Draft
2nd: Hasheem Thabeet (picked over: Harden, Curry)
6th: Johnny Flynn (picked over anyone :lol)

etc. You get the point.

[Shogon]

It's hard to put percentages on it... if I had to guess? Probably 60-70% skill, 30-40% luck.

You can't know how good a player is going to be before they play a game. Sure, all signs can point in a certain direction, but you never know.

Nikola Jokic got passed on by EVERYONE at least once... and here he is, multiple MVPs later.

The good GMs/front offices have better percentage of successful picks than the rest... and there's a reason for that.

But at the end of the day it requires both luck and skill.

[1987_Lakers]

Combo of both

Alot of it is luck. I remember Jerry West saying they didn't even really scout Vlade Divac, but they still drafted him in the late 1st round. He turned out to be a solid starter.

Scouting is more advanced today, but I don't think even the Warriors knew Jordan Poole would be this good.

[SouBeachTalents]

Luck & skill are definitely important, but there’s other factors like concentrated power of will, pleasure and pain.

[Shogon]

Luck & skill are definitely important, but there’s other factors like concentrated power of will, pleasure and pain.

https://c.tenor.com/VoDifLJ0IVYAAAAi/noppers-pepe-frog.gif

[warriorfan]

Luck & skill are definitely important, but there’s other factors like concentrated power of will, pleasure and pain.

wut

[Shogon]

wut

100% reason to remember the name.

[SouBeachTalents]

100% reason to remember the name.
wut

[1987_Lakers]

GimmeThat hacking all types of accounts.

[Shogon]

wut

I want you to know it's a little ****ed up that I'm stuck here waiting, at times debating that I've had it with you and your posting. Me and the rest of ISH here.

[Shooter]

Luck & skill are definitely important, but there’s other factors like concentrated power of will, pleasure and pain.

:lol Nice one

10% luck
20% skill

[iamgine]

There's also player development

Kevin Durant used to be pretty terrible his first couple seasons. But Seattle/OKC let him kept chucking as the team kept on losing. And so he developed into the great player we know today.

[1987_Lakers]

There's also player development

Kevin Durant used to be pretty terrible his first couple seasons. But Seattle/OKC let him kept chucking as the team kept on losing. And so he developed into the great player we know today.
:biggums:

[warriorfan]

:biggums:

Kevin Durant was one of the worst players in the league in his first few seasons.

[Shooter]

To push this further. In 2007 Portland drafted Greg Oden 1st overall.

Were they unlucky for getting the 1st pick? Or unlucky for Oden experiencing his injuries?

Was Seattle lucky for getting the 2nd pick instead of the 1st? Would they have chosen Oden if they were 1st?

[SouBeachTalents]

There's also player development

Kevin Durant used to be pretty terrible his first couple seasons. But Seattle/OKC let him kept chucking as the team kept on losing. And so he developed into the great player we know today.
Yeah bro, KD was terrible averaging an efficient 25 ppg by his sophomore season.

[iamgine]

Certainly not the KD we know today.

[1987_Lakers]

Certainly not the KD we know today.

Of course, dude was like 19 when he first came into the NBA.

[SouBeachTalents]

Certainly not the KD we know today.
He was 19-20 years old, no shit captain obvious :lol By 21 he was already on the All-NBA First team and 2nd in MVP voting

[Shooter]

It's hard to put percentages on it... if I had to guess? Probably 60-70% skill, 30-40% luck.

You can't know how good a player is going to be before they play a game. Sure, all signs can point in a certain direction, but you never know.

Nikola Jokic got passed on by EVERYONE at least once... and here he is, multiple MVPs later.

The good GMs/front offices have better percentage of successful picks than the rest... and there's a reason for that.

But at the end of the day it requires both luck and skill.

Agreed, definitely requires both luck and skill but I tend to believe luck is more important than skill.

There is luck in your drafing order. Luck in the player you choose not getting injured, and luck in a player developing beyond their perceived ceiling.

I wish there was an analysis done on which teams "draft" better based on the draft order (#1 having the highest perceived result, #60 having the lowest) and then what that draft pick ended up being/producing. An analysis like this would have too many variables to make sense of it but I did find one website that made an attempt.

"Over the past ten years, The Toronto Raptors are the best drafting team in the NBA, Cleveland is the Worst"

https://towardsdatascience.com/which-nba-teams-are-best-at-drafting-4131eb843dc1

Golden State and San Antonio were marked as "below average"

[warriorfan]

Yeah bro, KD was terrible averaging an efficient 25 ppg by his sophomore season.

His team lost 60 games.

[iamgine]

Yeah cause they developed him well.