Are three-pointers really worth too much? According to this video, it isn't.

[1987_Lakers]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Yw22uDHy8-Q&feature=emb_title

This season in particular 2's were worth more than 3's because teams have become more efficient at 2's. Also pointed out that if the league changed 3's to only worth 2.5 points then attempting that shot would be worthless.

[warriorfan]

Op needs YouTube videos to tell him obvious things

[1987_Lakers]

Op needs YouTube videos to tell him obvious things

So obvious that majority of NBA fans think the 3 point shot has become broken. Makes sense.

[red1]

OP is a great poster


I appreciate high IQ laker fans. what a great franchise. :applause:

[warriorfan]

So obvious that majority of NBA fans think the 3 point shot has become broken. Makes sense.

Majority of nba fans are ****ing morons

[1987_Lakers]

OP is a great poster


I appreciate high IQ laker fans. what a great franchise. :applause:

https://i.giphy.com/media/6EQzurED9q9uU/giphy.webp

[Axe]

Threes would have been that efficient as well if they prolly retained the teeny-weeny wnba 3-point line.

[Akeem34TheDream]

Teams try to optimize their efficiency so 2pt shots and 3pt shots will have similar efg%. Fans often complain about the amount of 3point shots and how streaky the game can be and how worse teams can win. They are still true. Game has changed and i am ok with it. Some people might find 3point competihion uninteresting.

[Axe]

Teams try to optimize their efficiency so 2pt shots and 3pt shots will have similar efg%. Fans often complain about the amount of 3point shots and how streaky the game can be and how worse teams can win. They are still true. Game has changed and i am ok with it. Some people might find 3point competihion uninteresting.
The interesting thing about it is how consistently high box scores posted by one or both teams in multiple games have become now. All of a sudden anything below 90 or 100 today feels short and archaic. And if some fans are still eager to see taller men such as centers play traditional roles on the floor, then they might want to look elsewhere instead.

[tpols]

Honestly... I'm starting to think it is. Were at the point where role players can outshoot stars and totally decide games. Every game nowadays is basically a dice roll of who can get hot from 3. The variance is crazy. In the other nights game the celtics turned a 15 point deficit into a 15 point lead in like 10 minutes time. That's impossible without the 3pt shot which takes little effort to take but has massive reward.

Where as when it was a 2pt game generally speaking things were tight, and whoever could maneuver themselves the best would win. Now its just chuck a 3. If you're off by an inch you lose. You make it? You win.

[ShawkFactory]

Looking at league averages they are worth about the same. That’s why really great 3pt shooters create such on advantage.

You could argue that the Warriors have TWO all time 3pt shooters is what truly puts them over the top.

[Axe]

Honestly... I'm starting to think it is. Were at the point where role players can outshoot stars and totally decide games. Every game nowadays is basically a dice roll of who can get hot from 3. The variance is crazy. In the other nights game the celtics turned a 15 point deficit into a 15 point lead in like 10 minutes time. That's impossible without the 3pt shot which takes little effort to take but has massive reward.

Where as when it was a 2pt game generally speaking things were tight, and whoever could maneuver themselves the best would win. Now its just chuck a 3. If you're off by an inch you lose. You make it? You win.
Like the guy you're trying to root for earlier in brandohon ingraham aka 'rich mans scottie pippen' even if he hasn't basically won any playoff series before. :yaohappy:

[tpols]

Looking at league averages they are worth about the same. That’s why really great 3pt shooters create such on advantage.

You could argue that the Warriors have TWO all time 3pt shooters is what truly puts them over the top.

That's cancelled out by the dray vs Horford matchup. Sure curry and klay are GOAT shooters... But they're seeing doubles because Boston can afford to sag 20 feet off dray. So its much harder to hit shots when you're double teamed. Horford otoh will make teams pay for doubling and we saw that quite clearly. The spacing dynamic sucks when your 4 cant shoot.

[tpols]

Like the guy you're trying to root for earlier in brandohon ingraham aka 'rich mans scottie pippen' even if he hasn't basically won any playoff series before. :yaohappy:

Ingram is a smooth midrange player. Not a 3 point chucker. You need to sharpen yourself up axey baby. ;)

[ShawkFactory]

That's cancelled out by the dray vs Horford matchup. Sure curry and klay are GOAT shooters... But they're seeing doubles because Boston can afford to sag 20 feet off dray. So its much harder to hit shots when you're double teamed. Horford otoh will make teams pay for doubling and we saw that quite clearly. The spacing dynamic sucks when your 4 cant shoot.

I’m not necessarily talking about right now but more so the reason why the warriors have been such a powerful presence for the last decade.

I agree that this is a bad matchup for them. And that can happen.

[Axe]

I’m not necessarily talking about right now but more so the reason why the warriors have been such a powerful presence for the last decade.

I agree that this is a bad matchup for them. And that can happen.
Before they shocked the whole league by pioneering a newfound system (chuck 3s plus moving screens) that ultimately catapulted them to become a modern dynasty. Now it's going back to haunt them big time.

[8Ball]

OP is a great poster


I appreciate high IQ laker fans. what a great franchise. :applause:

He is actually the best ISH poster around. Always level headed.

He is very handsome too.

[Im Still Ballin]

The points per possession (PPP) value isn't the only important variable when comparing threes and twos. The frequency of baskets made must also be considered in the equation. Let me explain:

4/10 3pt = 12 points
6/10 2pt = 12 points

Both equate to 1.2 PPP, but the two-point shot results in a basket made an extra couple of possessions. Making shots and forcing the opponent to inbound the ball limits high-quality transition/semi-transition offense opportunities.

The average offensive rating of a possession that comes from a defensive rebound or stop is 115. All other possessions, such as inbounding the ball because of a made basket, are below 106.

I made a post about this awhile back:



Even though 3pt shooting has more value when it comes to points per possession, the ball simply misses more often. The frequency of made baskets is higher for mid-range shots, as opposed to 3pt shots.

A 33% 3pt shot is worth the same as a 50% 2pt shot on a points per possession basis. But the 2pt shot results in a made basket half the time, while the 3pt shot only goes in a third of the time.

Why is this important?

Because the average offensive rating (oRTG) for a possession that came from a defensive rebound or defensive stop is 115. All other types of possessions -- like those from inbounding the ball off a made basket -- average under 106.

Essentially? Shooting mid-range shots will result in more made baskets and fewer transition/semi-transition/early offense possessions.

Just as 3pt shots have synergistic floor-spacing benefits, mid-range shots will allow an offense to be more consistent. Frequently making baskets helps the defense set in the half-court.

[tpols]

The points per possession (PPP) value isn't the only important variable when comparing threes and twos. The frequency of baskets made must also be considered in the equation. Let me explain:

4/10 3pt = 12 points
6/10 2pt = 12 points

Both equate to 1.2 PPP, but the two-point shot results in a basket made an extra couple of possessions. Making shots and forcing the opponent to inbound the ball limits high-quality transition/semi-transition offense opportunities.

The average offensive rating of a possession that comes from a defensive rebound or stop is 115. All other possessions, such as inbounding the ball because of a made basket, are below 106.

I made a post about this awhile back:

This may be true but there's a back breaking momentum effect from stringing together 3s as opposed to 2s. Its like a jab vs a power hook or uppercut. 3s swing momentum much harder. Same way a poster dunk can swing momentum compared to a 15 foot in the flow spot up shot despite being worth the same amount of points.

[Im Still Ballin]

This may be true but there's a back breaking momentum effect from stringing together 3s as opposed to 2s. Its like a jab vs a power hook or uppercut. 3s swing momentum much harder. Same way a poster dunk can swing momentum compared to a 15 foot in the flow spot up shot despite being worth the same amount of points.

Another example of why there's more to it than points per possession (PPP.) The psychological element of basketball is very real; it's why teams become complacent and blow leads all the time. Leading and chasing elicit two different emotional states and this is all it takes for effort to drop.

A simple 5% decline in all five players on the court can change a game.

[90sgoat]

I think it's less bad this year than it has been.

As usual, people on RealGM are usually lacking behind in understanding the game.

We all talked about this like 8 years ago and then people refused to see the problem, now they're overreacting in the other direction.

Besides, all this talk about being worth more or less or how far and so on is not what its about, it's about how the league has made it impossible to play defense on perimeter players by allowing moving screens, carry, disallowing handcheck, flopping for fouls etc.

They began the season allowing more physical defense and pretty much everyone shot like shit from 3.

[Im Still Ballin]

Here's a comment from the video that illustrates my thoughts on the topic:



Great thought-provoking content as always Jimmy, however, I think there are some important counterarguments to some of the points you made in this video.

You displayed two graphs showing the league avg 3 point attempts and percentage over the last ~20 years. Because the league avg 3pt % doesn’t increase very much over the 20 year span, you come to the conclusion that players aren’t significantly better shooters today than they were 20 years ago.

However, this fails to consider the data in the context of your other main graph (showing the rise of 3 pt attempts over time). Since players are shooting more threes now, this means the difficulty of these three point attempts is likely higher, as modern nba defense gameplan to stop the 3pt shot (that wasn’t an emphasis back in 2000 because not enough 3s were shot)

Thus, I would argue that modern nba players would shoot at a much higher clip if their 3pt attempts were as open as the looks in the early 2000s were.

My second issue comes from your interpretation of the graph showing the EPA of 2pt % over the last 20 years.

At the end of the video, you talk about how the 3-pointer is balanced because teams defend it more, it opens up more easy 2’s. However, I believe that a more thorough data analysis would find that the only real 2’s that nba teams are looking to take are layups, dunks, and shots that are >5 feet from the rim.

This increase in shots around the rim, along with the decline of the midrange is most likely what’s driving this trend. I personally think this shows that the modern nba is lacking in shot diversity and that moving the 3pt line could add some interesting nuance and diversity into the game.

I was actually very pro 3-pointer before this video but it has shifted my stance. I think that moving the line back would provide for more balanced gameplay. There would still be teams the spam 3’s like there’s no tomorrow, but maybe also teams that operate predominantly through post ups and the midrange, which I think would make the league more fun to watch.

Feel free to reply to this if you would like any help with your data analysis/visualization/interpretation for the channel. I’m an undergrad at duke studying stats and it’d be my dream to be able to contribute to something like this; I feel like I could really help out. Plus I have a lot of free time right now

[Baller789]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Yw22uDHy8-Q&feature=emb_title

This season in particular 2's were worth more than 3's because teams have become more efficient at 2's. Also pointed out that if the league changed 3's to only worth 2.5 points then attempting that shot would be worthless.


OP is a great poster


I appreciate high IQ laker fans. what a great franchise. :applause:


He is actually the best ISH poster around. Always level headed.

He is very handsome too.

3 alts in one thread for the serial liar of this board. :cheers: