How many Covid-19 infections have been prevented so far by Covid-19 NPIs?

[Cleverness]

With mask mandates still in effect in some parts of the US and millions of employees still having to wear masks, how many infections have been prevented by NPIs so far in the US?

So far the US has used: social distancing, masks, travel restrictions, vaccine passports, and more.

How many Covid-19 infections have each of those NPIs prevented so far? (Any estimations of the benefits to date?)

[bladefd]

To find out, you have to create another universe that follows the same laws of physics as ours, follows through the same 13.7bill years including the same evolutionary path, and has a carbon copy of the same people as our universe. Fast forward to the year 2022, month July 20. The difference?? No masks, no physical distancing, no travel restrictions, etc.

All you have to do is create another universe. And have 13.7bill years. Otherwise, shut the hell up.

[Cleverness]

Not really. Have you heard of estimations and studies?

How is it that we have several headliners on estimations for how many infections could be prevented by certain NPIs, yet with the data in hand, we have no estimation of actual infections prevented by NPIs? It makes no sense how one can estimate with less data and not estimate with more data.

[SATAN]

People going against it all because they think it's an Illuminati takeover and mass protests throughout the country wouldn't hinder those numbers at all.

[n00bie]

I'm actually surprised some parts of the U.S. still have masking mandates. Is that whole States, or just places like public transportation & hospitals?

I wonder what the people who believed in the whole conspiracy theory about masking are thinking right now. They thought governments implementing masks were some kind of conspiracy to "take away their freedoms", or "label / control" them. If that was the case, why is masking mandates being lifted now that hospitalizations are going down?

Whether you believe masking works or not, it's pretty far fetched to think the government would go through so much trouble just to see us all having something over our face for 2 years to "control" us.

[Cleverness]

I'm actually surprised some parts of the U.S. still have masking mandates. Is that whole States, or just places like public transportation & hospitals?

I wonder what the people who believed in the whole conspiracy theory about masking are thinking right now. They thought governments implementing masks were some kind of conspiracy to "take away their freedoms", or "label / control" them. If that was the case, why is masking mandates being lifted now that hospitalizations are going down?

Whether you believe masking works or not, it's pretty far fetched to think the government would go through so much trouble just to see us all having something over our face for 2 years to "control" us.

1) Mostly places like transportation and hospitals which employ millions of people and have tens of millions of visitors each year. You'll also see some places in big cities have masks required for entry.

2a) I think they're being lifted because enough people are tired of wearing them. That said, how many infections have they prevented so far in the US? Any estimations out there?

2b) Why did California's case rate decline 92% about two months after their indoor mask mandate ended? Still waiting for an answer on this, but nobody seems to have a clue?
http://www.insidehoops.com/forum/showthread.php?502696-California-s-Mask-Mandate-Ends-How-long-until-Covid-cases-skyrocket&p=14576777&viewfull=1#post14576777

2c) You've mentioned people spending more time indoors in the winter, but is that the reason cases rise? How much time does the average person spend indoors per day by season in the US? Let's take a look at the data year by year because I don't think you realize how much time people spend indoors every season, especially in today's internet world.

3) I think they controlled us pretty well via Trump's National State of Emergency money and his guidelines. Never before was it illegal for so many people in the US to assemble two people for lunch at the local deli, serve food, work out at a gym, hang out at the beach, travel/work/go out without covering their faces, etc.

[Nanners]

With mask mandates still in effect in some parts of the US and millions of employees still having to wear masks, how many infections have been prevented by NPIs so far in the US?

So far the US has used: social distancing, masks, travel restrictions, vaccine passports, and more.

How many Covid-19 infections have each of those NPIs prevented so far? (Any estimations of the benefits to date?)

As you know, masks have not prevented a single infection... that said, even with zero effectiveness the masks are more effective against covid than the vaccine - which is so safe and effective that it somehow increases your statistical likelyhood of infection with each shot you take

[coin24]

Lol at losers like blade that just keep doubling down on their stupidity..

The vax is rubbish, so are masks, lock downs and distancing. Wake up to yourselves

[Patrick Chewing]

I had a stupid old couple come into my store yesterday wearing two masks each and they advised me that they were going to "social distance" themselves from me the whole time. Well, how the **** can I show you what you want to see if you're standing 17 feet away from me??

I sent them away. Didn't want their business anyway with their lunacy.

[bladefd]

As you know, masks have not prevented a single infection... that said, even with zero effectiveness the masks are more effective against covid than the vaccine - which is so safe and effective that it somehow increases your statistical likelyhood of infection with each shot you take

Evidence?

[Off the Court]

Best way to estimate the effects of NPI and social distancing is to look at the drop in influenza cases.

If the flu transmission dropped by 50%, we can then roughly estimate that we have dropped covid cases 50%.

It is obviously far from a perfect gauge as flu and covid aren't equal in how infectious they are, but it's decent for a very rough estimate.

Anyone who thinks social distancing and masks have literally prevented "nothing" is either trolling or mentally disabled. If you aren't near the virus, you won't catch the virus.

[paksat]

Best way to estimate the effects of NPI and social distancing is to look at the drop in influenza cases.

If the flu transmission dropped by 50%, we can then roughly estimate that we have dropped covid cases 50%.

It is obviously far from a perfect gauge as flu and covid aren't equal in how infectious they are, but it's decent for a very rough estimate.

Anyone who thinks social distancing and masks have literally prevented "nothing" is either trolling or mentally disabled. If you aren't near the virus, you won't catch the virus.

I agree

I think the next obvious logical thing to do at this point having said that is to shut down the economy again, and go into lock down.

[diamenz]

I agree

I think the next obvious logical thing to do at this point having said that is to shut down the economy again, and go into lock down.

nobody wants the trump lockdowns back in place besides the clueless libtards.

[Cleverness]

Best way to estimate the effects of NPI and social distancing is to look at the drop in influenza cases.

If the flu transmission dropped by 50%, we can then roughly estimate that we have dropped covid cases 50%.

It is obviously far from a perfect gauge as flu and covid aren't equal in how infectious they are, but it's decent for a very rough estimate.

Anyone who thinks social distancing and masks have literally prevented "nothing" is either trolling or mentally disabled. If you aren't near the virus, you won't catch the virus.

Let's take a look at the data.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FRXOBJlWYAADqWR?format=jpg&name=small

In the US and Sweden, for example, the prevalence of influenza dropped 90-99% iirc between spring 2020-2021. But through prevalence studies combined with positive case data, the CDC estimated nearly half of the country had been infected with Covid-19 between 2/2020 & 9/2021, so your conclusion (in bold) makes no sense. Do you really think that NPIs reduced Covid-19 cases in the US by more than 90% over that time period?

If so, you're estimating that there would have been approximately 1,500,000,000 Covid-19 infections over ~18 months in the US without NPIs. I'm not really sure you would like to stand behind that claim and estimation.

Also, if NPIs are highly effective against influenza (based on your assumption that they reduced influenza prevalence during Covid-19), then we would expect a drastically lower number of influenza infections throughout the past decades in places that wore masks (such as Japan) when compared to places that did not (US)... but this is not the case.

[Cleverness]

Not really. Have you heard of estimations and studies?

How is it that we have several headliners on estimations for how many infections could be prevented by certain NPIs, yet with the data in hand, we have no estimation of actual infections prevented by NPIs? It makes no sense how one can estimate with less data and not estimate with more data.

I'll make it even simpler:

In other words, is it easier to estimate what will happen over the next 12 months (the future) or estimate what has happened in the previous 12 months (the past)?

[SATAN]

The madman is on the juice again. :lol

[Cleverness]

Yeah, pretty much what I thought. All the staunch supporters of NPIs (4Point, Tontoz, baudkarma, scuzzy, Rooster, ItsMillerTime, Overdrive, RealMenWearGreen, Rufus, falc39, Facepalm, etc) disappear when it comes down to backing up their positions.

Guys like bladefd and Off The Court get called out for their piss poor takes, then disappear too.

[Cleverness]

IHME latest model https://www.healthdata.org/sites/default/files/files/Projects/COVID/2022/102_briefing_United_States_of_America_8.pdf


We estimate that 82% of people in US have been infected at least once as of July 11

That number doesn't include the number of people who have been exposed to the virus, but not infected. I'd estimate about 90-95% of the country has been exposed to the virus.

Off the Court be like "looking at flu numbers, this means NPIs prevented 90% of the country from being infected with Covid" :facepalm

[JohnnySic]

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FZAZ-nLXgAARxXv?format=png&name=small

[JohnnySic]

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FY_4IYIWAAE3ERC?format=png&name=small

[FultzNationRISE]

I have a feeling this may just be the thread that finally changes their minds.

[Off the Court]

Let's take a look at the data.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FRXOBJlWYAADqWR?format=jpg&name=small

In the US and Sweden, for example, the prevalence of influenza dropped 90-99% iirc between spring 2020-2021. But through prevalence studies combined with positive case data, the CDC estimated nearly half of the country had been infected with Covid-19 between 2/2020 & 9/2021, so your conclusion (in bold) makes no sense. Do you really think that NPIs reduced Covid-19 cases in the US by more than 90% over that time period?

If so, you're estimating that there would have been approximately 1,500,000,000 Covid-19 infections over ~18 months in the US without NPIs. I'm not really sure you would like to stand behind that claim and estimation.

Also, if NPIs are highly effective against influenza (based on your assumption that they reduced influenza prevalence during Covid-19), then we would expect a drastically lower number of influenza infections throughout the past decades in places that wore masks (such as Japan) when compared to places that did not (US)... but this is not the case.
I missed this, but I'll entertain it I guess. Even though it will probably go no where.

Let me start with getting this out the way first. You are saying that "the prevalence of influenza dropped 90-99% iirc between spring 2020-2021". Before we even get into covid, do you agree with your statement there? Do you agree that NPIs reduced influenza by up to 90%? Because if not the rest is probably a pointless debate. There are people who literally think doctors all over the globe conspired to diagnose flu patients as covid patients which is obviously not even feasible or practicle. It would be pointless to compare data if at the end you just conclude "everyone is lying!".

But if you are in acceptance of the fact that NPIs did in fact reduce influenza then we can chat about how that correlates to covid which would obviously be different because not only are they different viruses with different vaccines but one is completely seasonal and the other isn't or at least not yet. But we could still make comparisons and try to come up with a rough estimate.

[theman93]

Do the vaccines prevent transmission yet?

[warriorfan]

I missed this, but I'll entertain it I guess. Even though it will probably go no where.

Let me start with getting this out the way first. You are saying that "the prevalence of influenza dropped 90-99% iirc between spring 2020-2021". Before we even get into covid, do you agree with your statement there? Do you agree that NPIs reduced influenza by up to 90%? Because if not the rest is probably a pointless debate. There are people who literally think doctors all over the globe conspired to diagnose flu patients as covid patients which is obviously not even feasible or practicle. It would be pointless to compare data if at the end you just conclude "everyone is lying!".

But if you are in acceptance of the fact that NPIs did in fact reduce influenza then we can chat about how that correlates to covid which would obviously be different because not only are they different viruses with different vaccines but one is completely seasonal and the other isn't or at least not yet. But we could still make comparisons and try to come up with a rough estimate.

Go outside

[Cleverness]

I missed this, but I'll entertain it I guess. Even though it will probably go no where.

Let me start with getting this out the way first. You are saying that "the prevalence of influenza dropped 90-99% iirc between spring 2020-2021". Before we even get into covid, do you agree with your statement there? Do you agree that NPIs reduced influenza by up to 90%? Because if not the rest is probably a pointless debate. There are people who literally think doctors all over the globe conspired to diagnose flu patients as covid patients which is obviously not even feasible or practicle. It would be pointless to compare data if at the end you just conclude "everyone is lying!".

But if you are in acceptance of the fact that NPIs did in fact reduce influenza then we can chat about how that correlates to covid which would obviously be different because not only are they different viruses with different vaccines but one is completely seasonal and the other isn't or at least not yet. But we could still make comparisons and try to come up with a rough estimate.

1) No, I don't agree that NPIs reduced influenza by up to 99%. Do you think NPIs reduced the prevalence of influenza by up to 99% in places like Sweden and the US?

I think the theory of viral interference is much more likely than NPIs to explain the reduction of influenza and the rise of Covid-19.

If we look at the prevalence of influenza over the past 20 years, do we see a significant difference between countries that wore no masks and countries were mask wearing was part of their culture (ie Japan)?

2) If you don't think it's seasonal, you should probably take a look at the different regions of America and when cases spiked / declined; there are regional patterns.

3) Again, IHME estimated earlier this month that 82% of the US has already been infected. This doesn't include people who have been exposed, but not infected. Infected + exposed to probably close to 95-99% of the country.

So to answer the original question, this would mean that, cumulatively, the ~2 years of NPIs used have resulted in protecting a maximum of 1-5% of the country from becoming exposed to the virus. And that number is perpetually becoming smaller and smaller.

[HylianNightmare]

Allot I'm sure

[Axe]

Op how's your recent visit to mcdonald's? I hope they served you well by not letting you wear a mask anymore.

[Off the Court]

1) No, I don't agree that NPIs reduced influenza by up to 99%. Do you think NPIs reduced the prevalence of influenza by up to 99% in places like Sweden and the US?

I think the theory of viral interference is much more likely than NPIs to explain the reduction of influenza and the rise of Covid-19.

If we look at the prevalence of influenza over the past 20 years, do we see a significant difference between countries that wore no masks and countries were mask wearing was part of their culture (ie Japan)?

2) If you don't think it's seasonal, you should probably take a look at the different regions of America and when cases spiked / declined; there are regional patterns.

3) Again, IHME estimated earlier this month that 82% of the US has already been infected. This doesn't include people who have been exposed, but not infected. Infected + exposed to probably close to 95-99% of the country.

So to answer the original question, this would mean that, cumulatively, the ~2 years of NPIs used have resulted in protecting a maximum of 1-5% of the country from becoming exposed to the virus. And that number is perpetually becoming smaller and smaller.
Well I'm glad I asked that first because there is no point in going over all the data if you are just going to put your tin foil hat on and declare all the data a lie. Which is typical in these debates but it makes it impossible to try and estimate anything.

82% being infected after "this month" is meaningless. If we were going to estimate anything it would have to be based around covid infections during the 20-21 season ONLY. Maybe that was alpha of delta variant I don't know. But it wasn't omicron.

NPIs aren't readily used any more. Gasoline demand has sky rocketed, everyone is out and about, and masks have become a rarity. I still see a few masks but I'd estimate it's only 10% of the population at most. I assume mostly those who are immunocompromised or are living with someone who is. And aside from that today's omicron is pretty much a completely different virus than alpha and delta.

So we would have to single out that flu season's time span and compare only that time frame. And if we did that, you're probably not going to like the results and it will transform this debate into a tin foil discussion. Because it's going to force the reality that viruses spread from human contact and when everyone is inside working from home they can not spread as efficiently. Thus the massive drop in influenza.

Maybe we should just skip to the tin foil debates now and talk about how wildly ridiculous the idea of a world wide mass conspiracy to mark influenza as covid would be. Aside from the ludicrous idea that every doctor and hospital on the planet would agree to this cover up and manage to keep quiet all this time, any of us can buy at home flu or covid tests and see the results with our own eyes. No doctor or hospital required. I have a doctor in my family and I can tell you right now this person would never agree to lies like some suggest. A mass conspiracy on that level is really an absurd low-IQ suggestion that should only garner snickers and eye rolls. If you want to try and present a feasible explanation as to how this could happen I'll listen but "every doctor is lying" is simply not feasible.

[Cleverness]

Well I'm glad I asked that first because there is no point in going over all the data if you are just going to put your tin foil hat on and declare all the data a lie. Which is typical in these debates but it makes it impossible to try and estimate anything.

82% being infected after "this month" is meaningless. If we were going to estimate anything it would have to be based around covid infections during the 20-21 season ONLY. Maybe that was alpha of delta variant I don't know. But it wasn't omicron.

NPIs aren't readily used any more. Gasoline demand has sky rocketed, everyone is out and about, and masks have become a rarity. I still see a few masks but I'd estimate it's only 10% of the population at most. I assume mostly those who are immunocompromised or are living with someone who is. And aside from that today's omicron is pretty much a completely different virus than alpha and delta.

So we would have to single out that flu season's time span and compare only that time frame. And if we did that, you're probably not going to like the results and it will transform this debate into a tin foil discussion. Because it's going to force the reality that viruses spread from human contact and when everyone is inside working from home they can not spread as efficiently. Thus the massive drop in influenza.

Maybe we should just skip to the tin foil debates now and talk about how wildly ridiculous the idea of a world wide mass conspiracy to mark influenza as covid would be. Aside from the ludicrous idea that every doctor and hospital on the planet would agree to this cover up and manage to keep quiet all this time, any of us can buy at home flu or covid tests and see the results with our own eyes. No doctor or hospital required. I have a doctor in my family and I can tell you right now this person would never agree to lies like some suggest. A mass conspiracy on that level is really an absurd low-IQ suggestion that should only garner snickers and eye rolls. If you want to try and present a feasible explanation as to how this could happen I'll listen but "every doctor is lying" is simply not feasible.

1) I'm actually doing just the opposite. When did I say all the data is a lie? I was the one who posted actual data. :lol

2) Why would it only be in the 2020-2021 season only?

3) Again, do you think NPIs reduced the prevalence of influenza by up to 99% in places like Sweden and the US? Have you looked into other theories, such as viral interference?

4) You're assuming "everyone is inside working from home." How many people visited other people from outside their home in 2020? 2021? You are vastly underestimating the billions of times every year in America when people visit others outside of their homes (which is, btw, the "highest risk" setting).

5) I never said every doctor is lying. Not sure where you're going with "tin foil" and "every doctor had to cover this up." How? What do you mean by this?

[Off the Court]

1) I'm actually doing just the opposite. When did I say all the data is a lie? I was the one who posted actual data. :lol

2) Why would it only be in the 2020-2021 season only?

3) Again, do you think NPIs reduced the prevalence of influenza by up to 99% in places like Sweden and the US? Have you looked into other theories, such as viral interference?

4) You're assuming "everyone is inside working from home." How many people visited other people from outside their home in 2020? 2021? You are vastly underestimating the billions of times every year in America when people visit others outside of their homes (which is, btw, the "highest risk" setting).

5) I never said every doctor is lying. Not sure where you're going with "tin foil" and "every doctor had to cover this up." How? What do you mean by this?
1) So is the data legit or no?
2) Only that season because that is the only time period during influenza season where NPIs were heavily used. They aren't used much today.
3) If that is what hospitals reported I have no reason to think otherwise.
4) Not literally everyone obviously.
5) If the data is wrong most say it is because of a mass conspiracy to make covid look worse than it really is. So if it is not that, how is the flu data wrong?

[Cleverness]

1) So is the data legit or no?
2) Only that season because that is the only time period during influenza season where NPIs were heavily used. They aren't used much today.
3) If that is what hospitals reported I have no reason to think otherwise.
4) Not literally everyone obviously.
5) If the data is wrong most say it is because of a mass conspiracy to make covid look worse than it really is. So if it is not that, how is the flu data wrong?

1) What data are you referring to?

2)
82% being infected after "this month" is meaningless. If we were going to estimate anything it would have to be based around covid infections during the 20-21 season ONLY. Maybe that was alpha of delta variant I don't know. But it wasn't omicron.
This was what you said. My original question was how many Covid-19 infections have been prevented so far by Covid-19 NPIs? That question is still not answered or even estimated. It seems your point is that NPIs for Covid-19 were only necessary for a set period of time, but not necessary today. Is that correct? If so, what was the achievable/measurable goal (if any) of NPIs in the first place, what was the time period for which they were necessary, and why are they not necessary today?

3) Hospitals may help report on the prevalence of influenza, but they don't report on why the prevalence of influenza has been reduced by up to 99%. Again, do you believe that NPIs reduced the prevalence of influenza by up to 99% in places like Sweden and the US? Have you looked into other theories, such as viral interference?

4) Obviously some people are working from home. But how many people visited other people from outside their home in 2020? 2021? You are vastly underestimating the billions of times every year in America when people visit others outside of their homes (which is, btw, the "highest risk" setting).

5) I don't think the flu data was wrong. I think the belief that Covid-19 NPIs reduced the prevalence of influenza by up to 99% in places in the US/Sweden (while Covid-19 spread like wildfire) is heavily lacking in the evidence department.

[Off the Court]

1) What data are you referring to?

2) This was what you said. My original question was how many Covid-19 infections have been prevented so far by Covid-19 NPIs? That question is still not answered or even estimated. It seems your point is that NPIs for Covid-19 were only necessary for a set period of time, but not necessary today. Is that correct? If so, what was the achievable/measurable goal (if any) of NPIs in the first place, what was the time period for which they were necessary, and why are they not necessary today?

3) Hospitals may help report on the prevalence of influenza, but they don't report on why the prevalence of influenza has been reduced by up to 99%. Again, do you believe that NPIs reduced the prevalence of influenza by up to 99% in places like Sweden and the US? Have you looked into other theories, such as viral interference?

4) Obviously some people are working from home. But how many people visited other people from outside their home in 2020? 2021? You are vastly underestimating the billions of times every year in America when people visit others outside of their homes (which is, btw, the "highest risk" setting).

5) I don't think the flu data was wrong. I think the belief that Covid-19 NPIs reduced the prevalence of influenza by up to 99% in places in the US/Sweden (while Covid-19 spread like wildfire) is heavily lacking in the evidence department.

The data I am talking about is the 90-99% drop in influenza you posted in here. Looks like we both agree it is a real drop, but you are suggesting viral interference. I have not researched that much, is that the suggestion that contracting covid then makes you immune to influenza? Right off the bat that theory seems off to me because if that were the case then influenza would still be down 90-99% today. But the data you posted in here shows it returned in Sweden. Why is covid no longer interfering?

[Cleverness]

The data I am talking about is the 90-99% drop in influenza you posted in here. Looks like we both agree it is a real drop, but you are suggesting viral interference. I have not researched that much, is that the suggestion that contracting covid then makes you immune to influenza? Right off the bat that theory seems off to me because if that were the case then influenza would still be down 90-99% today. But the data you posted in here shows it returned in Sweden. Why is covid no longer interfering?

1) I'm suggesting the notion that NPIs caused a drop in the prevalence of influenza by up to 99% in places such as the US and Sweden has a very weak case. I threw out viral interference just to show you that there are other theories as to why the prevalence of influenza was decreased by up to 99% in places such as the US and Sweden.

2) My original question was how many Covid-19 infections have been prevented so far by Covid-19 NPIs? That question is still not answered or even estimated. It seems your point is that NPIs for Covid-19 were only necessary for a set period of time, but not necessary today. Is that correct? If so, what was the achievable/measurable goal (if any) of NPIs in the first place, what was the time period for which they were necessary, and why are they not necessary today?

3) Again, do you believe that NPIs reduced the prevalence of influenza by up to 99% in places like Sweden and the US? If so, then some basic questions should be answered, such as how many people visited other people from outside their home in 2019? 2020? 2021? One would be vastly underestimating the billions of times every year in America when people visit others outside of their homes (which is, btw, the "highest risk" setting) if one was to assume the decline was due to NPIs.

[Nanners]

https://youtu.be/0qgzD0r94IA