Gotterdammerung
10-02-2022, 01:36 PM
I only rank the teams I expect to qualify for the playoffs, based on their likelihood of making it to the NBA Finals.
Eastern Conference
1. Milwaukee Bucks
Middleton’s knee injury doomed the Bucks’ back-to-back hopes. Even without him, the Bucks pushed the Celtics to 7 games in the second round. It is logical to say that with a healthy Middleton the Bucks win one more game that round.
Antetokounmpo won two MVPs in a row (2019 and 2020) before winning the title in 2021 and the Finals MVP. Right now, the Greek Freak is the best player in the game due to his elite scoring, rebounding, passing, and defense. He never takes a day off and works twice as hard in the playoffs. No off-the-court drama for that matter. And he is 27 years old – perhaps he has yet to reach his peak!
As long Antetokounmpo remains healthy, and has a strong supporting cast, he will win more titles and be the best player of the 2020s.
2. Boston Celtics
Tatum & Brown are versatile two-way players with superior size, skills, and athleticism. Tatum is on the verge of MVP-caliber, and Brown is not far behind. I did not think the Celtics were championship caliber, not because of their star wing players, but I did not believe in their supporting cast. Smart, Horford, the Time Lord, and Williams played better than they ever did.
Now, with Brogdon, they’re even deeper than ever. But they will miss Gallinari. The Celtics are good enough to return to the Finals, but a healthy Bucks will beat them in the East Conference Finals.
Nobody knows how the Celtics will respond to their new coach Mazulla while Head Coach Udoka is suspended. But I think the promotion from within the team will be much smoother than people think – he is already familiar with the players and the players are familiar with him.
3. Brooklyn Nets
None of us can understand what Durant is thinking or why he is always dissatisfied, or why he says some of the things he says. But once he is on the floor he is all business and one of the top 5 players in the league. Getting swept by the superior Celtics was a career lowlight, but a disjointed season where his co-stars quit on him couldn’t have ended any other way.
Nets went 36-19 with Durant, and he averaged 29.9 ppg, 7.4 rpg, and 6.4 apg with splits of 51.8/38.3/91.0. He will be 34 when the season starts, and he already recovered from one nasty injury, but he should have at least one more MVP caliber year in him.
When Irving was on the floor, he was brilliant, (27.4 ppg, 5.8 apg) but he was available only for 29 games. It is no longer clear being a great player is the most important thing to Irving. And there is plenty of evidence that basketball is no longer his top priority.
Ben Simmons is capable of guarding any position and he is a superior playmaker and rebounder. His limitations as a shooter is pretty obvious, but if he averages 16, 8, and 8, then he has done enough to make the Nets competitive. I believe he will be healthy and productive, despite all the questions about mental health and bad back.
When the Nets are at full strength, they can be a dynamic offensive team. They lack size, defense, and rebounding. But Simmons checks on all three of them. They can beat anyone in a 7 game series, based on talent alone, but their questionable intangibles (coaching, chemistry, mindset) means they won’t beat the Bucks or the Celtics in the playoffs.
4. Philadelphia 76ers
Embiid is an MVP caliber player, and Harden is still an All-Star player. Maxey is turning into a very good starter, and Harris remains underrated. Coach Rivers has already won the championship.
They have all the parts for a championship run, but the whole remains less than the sum of the parts. Embiid is in top condition but he lacks leadership skills. Harden, after being the most overrated player in the last 10 years, is now a declining one. They have solid players, but the other playoff contenders have as good third and fourth options if not better.
Morey seems hell-bent on turning them into Rockets East with P.J. Tucker and Danuel House Jr. The 76ers need young and energetic two-way players who can step up when Embiid is tired, and when Harden ghosts again. I hope for a Brooklyn-Philadelphia matchup in the playoffs, though.
5. Cleveland Cavaliers
Despite injuries, the Cavs ended the season as an elite defensive team (5th points allowed, 8th in defensive FG%). They are pesky, scrappy, well-coached. They need health and offensive efficiency, though. Mitchell will improve the Cavs’ offense, because he can create offense for himself and others. If the Cavs are healthy, they will be tough. Besides a lack of playoff experience as a team, they do not have a true superstar or MVP caliber player. The other teams ahead of them do. Star power counts, so expecting the Cavaliers to knock off two of them in 7 game series is too much.
6. Miami Heat
The Heat had a great season. Their top 4 players (Butler, Lowry, Herro, Adebayo) missed at least 16 games but the Heat fought their way to the best record in the East. They are not very big, nor do they rebound very well, but they finished 4th in points allowed and 4th in defensive FG%. They won’t take too many threes, 14th but they led the league (37.9%) and they were first in 3 point FG% defense. The Heat are disciplined, well-condition and will not beat themselves.
But they will finish 6th because the Celtics were better last year and improved in the offseason. The Bucks and the Nets, when healthy, are better. The 76ers have the better MVP caliber player and the Cavaliers are younger and hungrier.
7. Toronto Raptors
If the Sixers, Cavaliers, and the Heat are the second tier in the East, then the Raptors are in the next tier – the playoff bubble tier. They lack a superstar, but they have plenty of very good two-way players that are virtually interchangeable in size and skill set, plus a couple of pittbull type of guards in VanVleet and Trent Jr. If Barnes develop into a superstar, then that raises their ceiling and playoff chances. But maybe after a few more years. Coach Nurse is a huge advantage – he will never let the Raptors be out-prepared or out-schemed. The Raptors are good enough to scare any of the top teams before losing in 6 or 7 games.
8. Atlanta Hawks
Despite the fact they reached the Eastern conference finals in 2021, there was plenty of skepticism. And sure enough, they fell back to Earth in 2022. Now they added Dejounte Murray, improving the Hawks’ size, talent and versatility. But for all those talents, he couldn’t lift the Spurs into the playoffs for the last three years. Since the Hawks were first round fodder in 2022, they will be again in 2023, even though they improved slightly. They score a lot, but they neither defend nor rebound very well.
Play-in Tournament possibilities:
The Chicago Bulls finished 6th last year before going down 4-1 to the Bucks in the first round. They were third in FG% but 13th in scoring, 16th in points allowed, and 26th in defensive FG% and 28th in rebounding. They added Dragic and Drummond, but that won’t move the needle enough. And Lonzo Ball won’t be available perhaps for half of the season.
New York Knicks took a step back last year, after making it to the first round in 2021 playoffs. They added Brunson, but it remains to be seen if Randle can handle being the best player on a team. RJ, that's your cue.
Charlotte Hornets finished 43-39 with a solid offense (4th in scoring, 11th in FG%) but had a shitty defense (20th in defensive FG% and 25th in points allowed) and failed to upgrade their roster in the offseason. I expect them to fall in the standings.
Pistons, Wizards, Pacers, and Magic will not make any noise and end up back into the lottery.
Eastern Conference
1. Milwaukee Bucks
Middleton’s knee injury doomed the Bucks’ back-to-back hopes. Even without him, the Bucks pushed the Celtics to 7 games in the second round. It is logical to say that with a healthy Middleton the Bucks win one more game that round.
Antetokounmpo won two MVPs in a row (2019 and 2020) before winning the title in 2021 and the Finals MVP. Right now, the Greek Freak is the best player in the game due to his elite scoring, rebounding, passing, and defense. He never takes a day off and works twice as hard in the playoffs. No off-the-court drama for that matter. And he is 27 years old – perhaps he has yet to reach his peak!
As long Antetokounmpo remains healthy, and has a strong supporting cast, he will win more titles and be the best player of the 2020s.
2. Boston Celtics
Tatum & Brown are versatile two-way players with superior size, skills, and athleticism. Tatum is on the verge of MVP-caliber, and Brown is not far behind. I did not think the Celtics were championship caliber, not because of their star wing players, but I did not believe in their supporting cast. Smart, Horford, the Time Lord, and Williams played better than they ever did.
Now, with Brogdon, they’re even deeper than ever. But they will miss Gallinari. The Celtics are good enough to return to the Finals, but a healthy Bucks will beat them in the East Conference Finals.
Nobody knows how the Celtics will respond to their new coach Mazulla while Head Coach Udoka is suspended. But I think the promotion from within the team will be much smoother than people think – he is already familiar with the players and the players are familiar with him.
3. Brooklyn Nets
None of us can understand what Durant is thinking or why he is always dissatisfied, or why he says some of the things he says. But once he is on the floor he is all business and one of the top 5 players in the league. Getting swept by the superior Celtics was a career lowlight, but a disjointed season where his co-stars quit on him couldn’t have ended any other way.
Nets went 36-19 with Durant, and he averaged 29.9 ppg, 7.4 rpg, and 6.4 apg with splits of 51.8/38.3/91.0. He will be 34 when the season starts, and he already recovered from one nasty injury, but he should have at least one more MVP caliber year in him.
When Irving was on the floor, he was brilliant, (27.4 ppg, 5.8 apg) but he was available only for 29 games. It is no longer clear being a great player is the most important thing to Irving. And there is plenty of evidence that basketball is no longer his top priority.
Ben Simmons is capable of guarding any position and he is a superior playmaker and rebounder. His limitations as a shooter is pretty obvious, but if he averages 16, 8, and 8, then he has done enough to make the Nets competitive. I believe he will be healthy and productive, despite all the questions about mental health and bad back.
When the Nets are at full strength, they can be a dynamic offensive team. They lack size, defense, and rebounding. But Simmons checks on all three of them. They can beat anyone in a 7 game series, based on talent alone, but their questionable intangibles (coaching, chemistry, mindset) means they won’t beat the Bucks or the Celtics in the playoffs.
4. Philadelphia 76ers
Embiid is an MVP caliber player, and Harden is still an All-Star player. Maxey is turning into a very good starter, and Harris remains underrated. Coach Rivers has already won the championship.
They have all the parts for a championship run, but the whole remains less than the sum of the parts. Embiid is in top condition but he lacks leadership skills. Harden, after being the most overrated player in the last 10 years, is now a declining one. They have solid players, but the other playoff contenders have as good third and fourth options if not better.
Morey seems hell-bent on turning them into Rockets East with P.J. Tucker and Danuel House Jr. The 76ers need young and energetic two-way players who can step up when Embiid is tired, and when Harden ghosts again. I hope for a Brooklyn-Philadelphia matchup in the playoffs, though.
5. Cleveland Cavaliers
Despite injuries, the Cavs ended the season as an elite defensive team (5th points allowed, 8th in defensive FG%). They are pesky, scrappy, well-coached. They need health and offensive efficiency, though. Mitchell will improve the Cavs’ offense, because he can create offense for himself and others. If the Cavs are healthy, they will be tough. Besides a lack of playoff experience as a team, they do not have a true superstar or MVP caliber player. The other teams ahead of them do. Star power counts, so expecting the Cavaliers to knock off two of them in 7 game series is too much.
6. Miami Heat
The Heat had a great season. Their top 4 players (Butler, Lowry, Herro, Adebayo) missed at least 16 games but the Heat fought their way to the best record in the East. They are not very big, nor do they rebound very well, but they finished 4th in points allowed and 4th in defensive FG%. They won’t take too many threes, 14th but they led the league (37.9%) and they were first in 3 point FG% defense. The Heat are disciplined, well-condition and will not beat themselves.
But they will finish 6th because the Celtics were better last year and improved in the offseason. The Bucks and the Nets, when healthy, are better. The 76ers have the better MVP caliber player and the Cavaliers are younger and hungrier.
7. Toronto Raptors
If the Sixers, Cavaliers, and the Heat are the second tier in the East, then the Raptors are in the next tier – the playoff bubble tier. They lack a superstar, but they have plenty of very good two-way players that are virtually interchangeable in size and skill set, plus a couple of pittbull type of guards in VanVleet and Trent Jr. If Barnes develop into a superstar, then that raises their ceiling and playoff chances. But maybe after a few more years. Coach Nurse is a huge advantage – he will never let the Raptors be out-prepared or out-schemed. The Raptors are good enough to scare any of the top teams before losing in 6 or 7 games.
8. Atlanta Hawks
Despite the fact they reached the Eastern conference finals in 2021, there was plenty of skepticism. And sure enough, they fell back to Earth in 2022. Now they added Dejounte Murray, improving the Hawks’ size, talent and versatility. But for all those talents, he couldn’t lift the Spurs into the playoffs for the last three years. Since the Hawks were first round fodder in 2022, they will be again in 2023, even though they improved slightly. They score a lot, but they neither defend nor rebound very well.
Play-in Tournament possibilities:
The Chicago Bulls finished 6th last year before going down 4-1 to the Bucks in the first round. They were third in FG% but 13th in scoring, 16th in points allowed, and 26th in defensive FG% and 28th in rebounding. They added Dragic and Drummond, but that won’t move the needle enough. And Lonzo Ball won’t be available perhaps for half of the season.
New York Knicks took a step back last year, after making it to the first round in 2021 playoffs. They added Brunson, but it remains to be seen if Randle can handle being the best player on a team. RJ, that's your cue.
Charlotte Hornets finished 43-39 with a solid offense (4th in scoring, 11th in FG%) but had a shitty defense (20th in defensive FG% and 25th in points allowed) and failed to upgrade their roster in the offseason. I expect them to fall in the standings.
Pistons, Wizards, Pacers, and Magic will not make any noise and end up back into the lottery.