Stock Market rally here soon?

[Doomsday Dallas]

The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is projected to raise interest rates by half a percentage point when it gathers for its final meeting of the year on Dec. 13-14. That decision will cap the year off with seven straight increases worth a whopping 4.25 percentage points, moves the Fed made in just nine months — a pace unheard of since its last inflation fight in the 1980s.

The Fed’s 2023 Meeting Schedule

February 1, 2023
March 22, 2023
May 3, 2023
June 14, 2023
July 26, 2023
September 20, 2023
November 1, 2023
December 13, 2023


if they go .75 it will cause stocks to go down, .5 and stocks are suppose to go up significantly

and then we have a possible Santa Rally

We will see how the Dow Jones plays out this month.

[FultzNationRISE]

PM me


Patreon.com/tofp

[Doomsday Dallas]

PM you?

what is this? 2010?




Here’s what history says about stock market performance in December
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/heres-what-history-says-about-stock-market-performance-in-december-11669841079


The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 71% of the time; it’s highest winning percentage of any month
The average December return for the Dow is 1.4%, second only to July
The S&P 500 is up 73% of the time; it’s highest winning percentage of any month
The average December return for the S&P 500 is 1.4%, 3rd best month on average
The Nasdaq Composite is up 61% of the time
The average December return for the Nasdaq Composite is 1.7%, 3rd best month on average
The Russell 2000 is up 83% of the time; it’s highest winning percentage of any month
The average December return for the Russell 2000 is 2.8%; the best average return for any month

[FultzNationRISE]

PM you?

what is this? 2010?




Here’s what history says about stock market performance in December
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/heres-what-history-says-about-stock-market-performance-in-december-11669841079


The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 71% of the time; it’s highest winning percentage of any month
The average December return for the Dow is 1.4%, second only to July
The S&P 500 is up 73% of the time; it’s highest winning percentage of any month
The average December return for the S&P 500 is 1.4%, 3rd best month on average
The Nasdaq Composite is up 61% of the time
The average December return for the Nasdaq Composite is 1.7%, 3rd best month on average
The Russell 2000 is up 83% of the time; it’s highest winning percentage of any month
The average December return for the Russell 2000 is 2.8%; the best average return for any month


Relying on history can be useful for predicting future patterns, but there are reasons it may be ill advised at this point in time.

Hit me up on Patreon and Ill give you some serious ideas to consider. Im not jokin and it’s not a scam. It’s worth 9 dollars if you wanna increase your holdings of the most valuable commodity out there: information.


:confusedshrug:

[Doomsday Dallas]

Relying on history can be useful for predicting future patterns, but there are reasons it may be ill advised at this point in time.

Hit me up on Patreon and Ill give you some serious ideas to consider. Im not jokin and it’s not a scam. It’s worth 9 dollars if you wanna increase your holdings of the most valuable commodity out there: information.


:confusedshrug:


Why don't you just share the info here?


Anyways... it's amazing how far some of these stocks have dropped.

Amazon is below $90... I got in at $93.... if it drops much lower I will be forced to buy more.

[FultzNationRISE]

Why don't you just share the info here?


Anyways... it's amazing how far some of these stocks have dropped.

Amazon is below $90... I got in at $93.... if it drops much lower I will be forced to buy more.


It’s up to you bro.

Also to be clear, Im not claiming to have definitive answers that are guaranteed to make anyone rich. But I will provide insightful philosophical context about the current economic climate that is more important than ever to consider. Relying on the blueprints of the past at this point in time may be a significant misstep.

[tontoz]

There could certainly be a bear market rally. There have been a couple already but overall the downtrend is still intact.

[rmt]

IMO, Fed should keep raising interest rates until (>) inflation is conquered - bite the bullet and do what they should have started MUCH earlier. Forget about the stock market (short term) and keep raising before this high inflation is baked in/permanent (long-term).

[Doomsday Dallas]

https://s14085.pcdn.co/wp-content/uploads/2022/09/dowjones_10years.png

https://s14085.pcdn.co/wp-content/uploads/2022/09/dowjones_30years.png










Idk man... seems like it is gearing up for take off.... assuming there are no more economic "X" factors like Covid, we may just see that stock market skyrocket.

It's possible, but it feels like things are still too uncertain.



Personally I don't feel good about the stock market in 2023... But stocks have been hammered so hard in 2022 it's hard not to buy while it's cheap.

https://storage.googleapis.com/capex-docs/images/LRfL2UcwSWEoHQq8oFZOeD8APHdk2Yj34iUID6ql.png

[Doomsday Dallas]

https://www.researchgate.net/profile/Yochanan-Shachmurove/publication/254458444/figure/fig3/AS:340442047631368@1458179118365/Dow-Jones-Industrial-Average-Daily-Chart-1920-1940.png


^ The early 30's must have been pure hell on earth... followed up by WWII in the early 40s.


Would've been nice to be alive & invested in roaring the 20's though. People were eating good in the 1920's.

[bladefd]

https://www.researchgate.net/profile/Yochanan-Shachmurove/publication/254458444/figure/fig3/AS:340442047631368@1458179118365/Dow-Jones-Industrial-Average-Daily-Chart-1920-1940.png


^ The early 30's must have been pure hell on earth... followed up by WWII in the early 40s.


Would've been nice to be alive & invested in roaring the 20's though. People were eating good in the 1920's.

It would have been nice to begin dipping into the stock market in the early 30s. Probably got some great stocks for super super cheap. Oh, that generation made a killing if they were patient for a decade. or longer.

Then again, folks thought it was the end of American economics in the 30s so very few had the balls and belief to invest in the US market then. It was also not easy to buy stocks back then - high fees for buying & selling, and purchase had to be done in person each time you wanted to buy or sell (or over the phone/landline but I don't think most had phones back then). And you got a physical stock certificate, which you had to keep safe somewhere. Too much hassle.

[bladefd]

Why don't you just share the info here?


Anyways... it's amazing how far some of these stocks have dropped.

Amazon is below $90... I got in at $93.... if it drops much lower I will be forced to buy more.

Good time to buy Amazon, google, amd, and microsoft. First 3 I added couple shares apiece extra yesterday to average down a bit.

Paypal and square are still in big holes so I hope they get some gains soon. Paypal especially. I don't have the guts to lock in the losses.

[Doomsday Dallas]

It would have been nice to begin dipping into the stock market in the early 30s. Probably got some great stocks for super super cheap. Oh, that generation made a killing if they were patient for a decade. or longer.

Then again, folks thought it was the end of American economics in the 30s so very few had the balls and belief to invest in the US market then. It was also not easy to buy stocks back then - high fees for buying & selling, and purchase had to be done in person each time you wanted to buy or sell (or over the phone/landline but I don't think most had phones back then). And you got a physical stock certificate, which you had to keep safe somewhere. Too much hassle.


See... this is why the rich get richer and poor get poorer.

Nobody had any money to buy into the stock market in the early 30s... you were lucky to have a job.

Only the wealthy can afford to buy stocks when they are dirt cheap like that... this is why rich people love it when the stock market tanks.

Who do you think was buying all the stock after Covid?... not the lower-middle class.

https://img.crackap.com/ap/us-history/cr2017/00029.jpg

[SATAN]

Good time to buy Amazon, google, amd, and microsoft. First 3 I added couple shares apiece extra yesterday to average down a bit.

Paypal and square are still in big holes so I hope they get some gains soon. Paypal especially. I don't have the guts to lock in the losses.

Things can still get much worse. I'm not dooming it but there are some things not really adding up at the moment. Your money but just a reminder.

[tontoz]

A big reason for the runup over the past decade is the Fed pumping liquidity into the market and keeping rates low. Now they are tightening and raising rates. There has never been a time when they did both at the same time. There is no way to know what will happen. You just have to be agile.

[Doomsday Dallas]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6c4RndxF-L4

https://niftyxperts.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/01/nifty-bull.gif

[tontoz]

Closing out some long plays and starting a position in SQQQ.

Edit: My SQQQ is already up over 5% lol.

Buy the dip, sell the rip.

[Doomsday Dallas]

Closing out some long plays and starting a position in SQQQ.

Edit: My SQQQ is already up over 5% lol.

Buy the dip, sell the rip.


I may have to go TQQQ for the long haul here soon.

Wish I had got in at a lower price.

[tontoz]

I may have to go TQQQ for the long haul here soon.

Wish I had got in at a lower price.

Not a good idea unless we break down to a new low. At this level shorting is a safer play. If you want to make an upside play better to use calls or a call spread to limit your downside.

I am going to wait for tomorrow's Fed reaction before i make another substantial play. No telling what will happen. Rate announcement at 2pm ET and then Powell might move the markets a lot with his commentary afterwards.

I have been in and out of SQQQ several times over the past few weeks. Pretty easy trades. Today whe the market jumped premarket i bought SQQQ before the open then closed it out before 11.

[tontoz]

Dam sold my SQQQ too soon :(


TSLA RIP. Business going great but stock falling off a cliff. When the technicals stablize this will be a great long term play.

[bladefd]

Why would you buy the triple inverse funds?? Very dangerous and chances are likely you will lose money with them for longer holds beyond a single day trades. Especially since they are triple inverse, your losses triple. I don't ever touch those triple inverse etfs.

[tontoz]

Why would you buy the triple inverse funds?? Very dangerous and chances are likely you will lose money with them for longer holds beyond a single day trades. Especially since they are triple inverse, your losses triple. I don't ever touch those triple inverse etfs.


Actually they are great for trades if you know what you are doing. In a bear market they can be a huge safety net. Options expire but the ETFs don't. If your timing is just a bit off you can wait it out which you can't do with options because they expire. Options can turn to vapor in a hurry if your timing is off.

Lets say you have 100k long and don't want to sell and have to pay taxes on gains but you are worried about a market downturn. You can put 20k into SQQQ. If the market tanks it will greatly cushion the blow. If the market goes up your longs will still be going up and you can still be net positive, and then add to SQQQ as the market rises.

My problem with SQQQ over the last few months is that my plays have been too small. I had very good timing but my initial buy wasn't what i considered a full position because i wanted to buy more if the market kept going up. What has typically happened is that the market went down quickly like it did today. I bought premarket then when the market fell so quickly i decided to cash out, then of course it fell some more lol but that's trading.

Al Michaels (yes that one) has been holding a long ETF for decades and has bragged about it on CNBC.

Short ETFs are actually safer than shorting an individual stock. News can cause a huge short squeeze in a single stock that can wipe you out.

[bladefd]

Actually they are great for trades if you know what you are doing. In a bear market they can be a huge safety net. Options expire but the ETFs don't. If your timing is just a bit off you can wait it out which you can't do with options because they expire. Options can turn to vapor in a hurry if your timing is off.

Lets say you have 100k long and don't want to sell and have to pay taxes on gains but you are worried about a market downturn. You can put 20k into SQQQ. If the market tanks it will greatly cushion the blow. If the market goes up your longs will still be going up and you can still be net positive, and then add to SQQQ as the market rises.

My problem with SQQQ over the last few months is that my plays have been too small. I had very good timing but my initial buy wasn't what i considered a full position because i wanted to buy more if the market kept going up. What has typically happened is that the market went down quickly like it did today. I bought premarket then when the market fell so quickly i decided to cash out, then of course it fell some more lol but that's trading.

Al Michaels (yes that one) has been holding a long ETF for decades and has bragged about it on CNBC.

Short ETFs are actually safer than shorting an individual stock. News can cause a huge short squeeze in a single stock that can wipe you out.

Options are ofc even more risky. Nobody knows what the future is going to be and putting a timer on it is even worse. Covered calls are fine especially in a bull market but puts are dangerous even in a bear market. Some people also use borrowed money to buy options, which is just foolish imo.

I don't really touch options or triple-inverse etfs. I find them too risky. I don't day trade either.

[tontoz]

Options are ofc even more risky. Nobody knows what the future is going to be and putting a timer on it is even worse. Covered calls are fine especially in a bull market but puts are dangerous even in a bear market. Some people also use borrowed money to buy options, which is just foolish imo.

I don't really touch options or triple-inverse etfs. I find them too risky. I don't day trade either.


Selling covered calls won't help that much when the market tanks.

Puts lose money the vast majority of the time but i will use the weeklies at times when the market is diving but you have to be quick. SQQQ has been much easier for me. Trading based on the chart patters and indicators (i use a 3 hour chart for MFI and RSI) can work pretty well for entry and exit points.

[Doomsday Dallas]

The Nasdaq doesn't typically have long sustained time periods of loss.... It may stay flat for awhile after a significant loss like it did in the Bush era, but even then, it wasn't losing year after year.

with that said... the Nasdaq may not be finished getting hammered... but it won't be long before we start seeing some growth again.

2022 was nothing but one big L and unless we have a major world event... I don't see a repeat in 2023.


could it stay flat for a few years? I suppose that's possible... but recent history suggests that it will go back up, and go back up quickly.

[FultzNationRISE]

The Nasdaq doesn't typically have long sustained time periods of loss.... It may stay flat for awhile after a significant loss like it did in the Bush era, but even then, it wasn't losing year after year.

with that said... the Nasdaq may not be finished getting hammered... but it won't be long before we start seeing some growth again.

2022 was nothing but one big L and unless we have a major world event... I don't see a repeat in 2023.


could it stay flat for a few years? I suppose that's possible... but recent history suggests that it will go back up, and go back up quickly.


Youre overlooking something very significant.

[tontoz]

The Nasdaq doesn't typically have long sustained time periods of loss.... It may stay flat for awhile after a significant loss like it did in the Bush era, but even then, it wasn't losing year after year.

with that said... the Nasdaq may not be finished getting hammered... but it won't be long before we start seeing some growth again.

2022 was nothing but one big L and unless we have a major world event... I don't see a repeat in 2023.


could it stay flat for a few years? I suppose that's possible... but recent history suggests that it will go back up, and go back up quickly.



You have to remember that the main reason for the bull run of the last 10 years was the Fed. The Fed had to step in to save the markets during the financial crisis, then again during COVID. Those days are over.

I remember the Nasdaq index falling from 5000 to 1500. It took over a decade to get back over 5000.

If you look at a one year chart the trend is clearly down. No need to fight it. There isn't going to be a quick turnaround with the Fed pulling money out of the market and China/Europe facing recessions that could get ugly.

[tontoz]

Countdown to the Fed. No idea what to do here. When Powell is talking the algos frequently go nuts.

I am hoping for a bounce that i can short but i suspect Powell will talk the market down which he has done frequently.

[tontoz]

20 minutes to Fed. Decided to make a small put play on AAPL just in case Powell talks the market down. Still hoping for upside.

[tontoz]

20 minutes to Fed. Decided to make a small put play on AAPL just in case Powell talks the market down. Still hoping for upside.

Wish i made a bigger play already up over 100% lol. Should i cash out or let it ride which can frequently mean it ends up worthless? I think i'll let it ride awhile but this is the dilema with puts.

[bladefd]

Hmm, fed raised rate by 0.5 instead of 0.75. That signals inflation is officially on the way down, including per their internal data that we are not privy to. I would expect stocks to recover a bit in the coming couple weeks even though they are down right now after the announcement. It should be good news that rate is not being raised as much as previous months.

[rawimpact]

Hmm, fed raised rate by 0.5 instead of 0.75. That signals inflation is officially on the way down, including per their internal data that we are not privy to. I would expect stocks to recover a bit in the coming couple weeks even though they are down right now after the announcement. It should be good news that rate is not being raised as much as previous months.

Not necessarily... they are trying to avoid a recession by treading lightly at this point.

[tontoz]

Hmm, fed raised rate by 0.5 instead of 0.75. That signals inflation is officially on the way down, including per their internal data that we are not privy to. I would expect stocks to recover a bit in the coming couple weeks even though they are down right now after the announcement. It should be good news that rate is not being raised as much as previous months.

The .5 was known ahead of time. The Fed statement is what caused the drop but i don't know the specifics.

AAPL was climbing right before 2pm then dropped hard on the announcement so something in there wasn't expected.

[tontoz]

The Fed said they are targeting a rate of 5.1% before they stop hiking rates. That is probably what spooked the market a little. That is higher than the consensus was expecting.

[bladefd]

The Fed said they are targeting a rate of 5.1% before they stop hiking rates. That is probably what spooked the market a little. That is higher than the consensus was expecting.

People & market tends to have a short-term memory lol. Watch it recover tomorrow & friday what it lost today after the announcement.

[tontoz]

People & market tends to have a short-term memory lol. Watch it recover tomorrow & friday what it lost today after the announcement.

Which is why i was reluctant to make a big bet. I remember one time a few months back the market rallied hard the afternoon of the Fed meeting then tanked hard the next few days.

I still get the feeling the market wants to go up. There is a gap in the S&P futures at 4221 and those gaps act like gravity most of the time.

[tontoz]

Listening to the CNBC Fast Money podcast. They are saying that Powell was very hawkish in his comments and they are surprised the market wasn't down more.

There are futures contracts which predict Fed moves and there is a big gap between what the market is saying and what the Fed is saying. The market is expecting them to be much more dovish than what the Fed is actually saying.

[Doomsday Dallas]

https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/fund/tqqq


I'm just going to buy in below $20 and play it for the long term.

Nasdaq can't fall much further... the risk is very minimal at this point.

2023 may be the window of the opportunity to buy... 2-3 years from now, I may wish I bought more.



http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-cuKlv1c-nY

This is the time to buy... This is f*cking it!

[tontoz]

Famous last words. I was trading in 2009 and 2001 and one thing i learned is that the market can always go down further. Nobody thought the markets would fall as much as they did.

I think there is a very good chance for a new low over the next few months. I was hoping that the S&P would bounce to 4100+ so i could make a big short bet.

Closed out the AAPL trade. Bought the weekly 140 puts for .5 and sold for 2.5. As usual wish i made a bigger bet but it was a bit of a gamble.

[tontoz]

MFI isn't oversold yet. I think we close weak. Tomorrow or Monday might be a good time for a long trade.

[tontoz]

Ive been following this guy for a couple of years and he is really good at charting. His timing on short term trades is surprisingly good.

https://www.tradingview.com/chart/ES1!/46VeRhAw-ES-Update/

[Doomsday Dallas]

Famous last words. I was trading in 2009 and 2001 and one thing i learned is that the market can always go down further. Nobody thought the markets would fall as much as they did.

I think there is a very good chance for a new low over the next few months. I was hoping that the S&P would bounce to 4100+ so i could make a big short bet.

Closed out the AAPL trade. Bought the weekly 140 puts for .5 and sold for 2.5. As usual wish i made a bigger bet but it was a bit of a gamble.



Personally I feel like the TQQQ etf cannot go much further below $17.00... a new low is possible I suppose... but $15.00 would be ridiculous. If it dropped below $8 the price would be the same as it was when the world was completely shut down in March of 2022. I see very low risk... high reward.

However, realistically I feel like the way 2023 will play out... TQQQ will get up to the high-$30's around March or May (I'll probably sell at this point 70-75% gain) .... drop back down to the mid-20's or lower around Summertime...

Somewhere in the Fall or Winter of 2023 it will start to pick up some serious steam.

I probably shouldn't feel as anxious as I do to buy as much as I can... because we have some time and a new low is most likely... but damn... definitely a good time to get invested.



I just want to get that average cost as low as possible... very important to get that low cost before take-off.

TQQQ exposures:

Apple Inc. 13.30%
Microsoft Corp. 10.40%
Amazon.com Inc. 6.90%
Tesla Inc. 4.94%
Alphabet Inc.-Class C 3.55%
Alphabet Inc.-Class A 3.44%
Meta Platforms Inc.-Class A 2.78%
NVIDIA Corp. 2.55%
PepsiCo Inc. 2.24%
Costco Wholesale Corp. 2.08%

[tontoz]

Those tech companies are all in a downtrend.

Looks like MFI hit oversold premarket. This morning could be a good time to buy for a trade. I am hoping for a down opening which could be a good time to buy.

Keep in mind that we have broken down out of the upward channel that was in place from the lows. I think we backtest the channel. I doubt we get that gap fill now but i think the market wants one last push before retesting the lows.

[tontoz]

https://twitter.com/CNBCFastMoney/status/1603517144276279303?s=20&t=Oe_hGxSiiZjc_IbK0FLMfA

[tontoz]

Made an AAPL call spread expiring next Friday. Might make another long play soon. I think we are ready to bounce.

Edit just bought some TQQQ at 19.21.

Wow looks like i was too early lol. The Fed still talking the market down. Ugh

[Doomsday Dallas]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Otx1mOcNI1M

https://m.media-amazon.com/images/I/51eM6toeiNL._AC_SY780_.jpg

[bladefd]

Tbh if there is a Santa Claus rally this year, I am selling a lot of stocks. Only keeping the best stuff like Apple/Microsoft/amd/Google/Amazon/Nvidia. Stuff like bank of America is going.

[tontoz]

Tbh if there is a Santa Claus rally this year, I am selling a lot of stocks. Only keeping the best stuff like Apple/Microsoft/amd/Google/Amazon/Nvidia. Stuff like bank of America is going.



That is the way i am thinking. I am expecting a bounce next week but i will be selling into it.

I dont think the market is ready for a big drop yet but it's coming. I am a little surprised how weak the market is today. Those AAPL puts that i bought at .5 and sold at 2.5 are at 5.8 now. :cry:

[Jud]

made a couple thousand dollars off of put options this week

[tontoz]

made a couple thousand dollars off of put options this week

Nice job. Did you buy them before the Fed meeting or after?

I made much less i bought before the Fed meeting but a small play.

[Jud]

Nice job. Did you buy them before the Fed meeting or after?

I made much less i bought before the Fed meeting but a small play.

I loaded up on SPY puts on Tuesday so before the Fed meeting

made massive gains on Thursday and I sold this morning

[tontoz]

I loaded up on SPY puts on Tuesday so before the Fed meeting

made massive gains on Thursday and I sold this morning



So i guess you bought after the big gap up on the CPI release. I shorted that too actually premarket but cashed out too quickly. :(

[Jud]

So i guess you bought after the big gap up on the CPI release. I shorted that too actually premarket but cashed out too quickly. :(

had a feeling that the market would take a hit later on in the week when I purchased the puts on Tuesday so I stayed patient and lucked out

[Doomsday Dallas]

https://stockinvest.us/stock/TQQQ


you can expect TQQQ ETF with a 90% probability to be traded between $17.45 and $24.02 at the end of this 3-month period.


If you can get in at $18... sell at $23

22% gain in 3 months... that's nothing great, but it's good.

I'm getting my chips ready for it to drop below $18.

[Doomsday Dallas]

I'm getting in at the wrong time...

need to wait a little while longer...

We are getting closer to buy time, but that time is not now.... just have to be patient, new lows are coming.

[Doomsday Dallas]

Amazon's stock price is now lower than it was before Covid hit the scene.

It just keeps getting lower and lower.


So basically if you invested in July of 2018.... you're back to even.

[tontoz]

I still think there will be a bounce before year end. Surprised it hasn't started yet.

Wish i still had that SQQQ i bought after the CPI release. :cry:

[Doomsday Dallas]

There's just no telling how far the nasdaq will drop.

let this serve as a lesson as to why you can't just print trillions of dollars to fight Covid.... congratulations on tanking the economy. Brilliant strategy. (Both Parties are guilty, not just blaming Democrats)

[Doomsday Dallas]

I still think there will be a bounce before year end. Surprised it hasn't started yet.

Wish i still had that SQQQ i bought after the CPI release. :cry:


Yea... I really got fooled into thinking the Nasdaq was going to rebound. It did the exact opposite... and this was with the Fed only doing a .5 increase.

Should've gone SQQQ like you did.


Even if it rebounds slightly for a Christmas rally... the Nasdaq is going back down all the way through March... after March might see some improvement. Holding my chips until then.

[tontoz]

We broke down out of the upward channel from the lows. Typically when that happens the market goes up and backtests the channel before a more substantial drop.

https://hosting.photobucket.com/images/g195/tontoz/Screenshot_20221219-112621.jpg

[bladefd]

There's just no telling how far the nasdaq will drop.

let this serve as a lesson as to why you can't just print trillions of dollars to fight Covid.... congratulations on tanking the economy. Brilliant strategy. (Both Parties are guilty, not just blaming Democrats)

The feds have been pumping up the market artificially since 09. It's been problematic and covid took it to new heights unfortunately for the rest of us. I wish I had sold 10 months earlier but it's too bad.

[Doomsday Dallas]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tJS0FYQT3_g

[tontoz]

Looks like the bounce is finally happening i just mistimed it. Bailed on TQQQ with a slight loss but have a few AAPL calls i will hold for at least a couple of days. Hopefully this will continue and give us a good short opportunity.

[bladefd]

Looks like the bounce is finally happening i just mistimed it. Bailed on TQQQ with a slight loss but have a few AAPL calls i will hold for at least a couple of days. Hopefully this will continue and give us a good short opportunity.

Santa Claus rally?!?! I have some shares to sell. Let's go!!

[tontoz]

MFI is showing as overbought already which is surprising. We haven't bounced that much.

[Jud]

i believe we will start to see an uptrend here soon

be very cautious though because im positive it's going to be a bull trap

[Nanners]

The crash hasnt really even started yet, especially for the west.

[tontoz]

Glad i dumped that TQQQ yesterday. Wow

[tontoz]

Tsla rip :(

[bladefd]

The drop today made little sense tbh. Labor market report was strong today and economic growth was better than expected. That's GOOD news! I realize a too strong economy can keep inflation high, but these news from today are better than news of recession.

Good news on jobs/economy = market drops
Bad news on jobs/economy = market drops

All drops from here?? :confusedshrug:

[Doomsday Dallas]

Glad i dumped that TQQQ yesterday. Wow


I bought a lot of it once it got below $17

[tontoz]

I bought some TSLA yesterday. It has fallen so far so fast i have to think a bounce is coming but i do have a hedge in place.

I might open up a call spread on the Qs which is less risky than holding stock.

We are now fully back into the downward channel. I would think there would be a bounce here shortly but the downtrend is still intact.

https://www.tradingview.com/chart/NQ1!/HuvogBLC-NQ-Daily-Look/

[tontoz]

A couple of things that may have been in play yesterday were tax loss selling (which i thought would be mostly done by now) and portfolio rebalancing at the end of the quarter. Fund managers don't want to show their customers that they were holding big losers. Window dressing basically.

Edit: Tepper talked the market down before the open yesterday which also had an effect.

[bladefd]

A couple of things that may have been in play yesterday were tax loss selling (which i thought would be mostly done by now) and portfolio rebalancing at the end of the quarter. Fund managers don't want to show their customers that they were holding big losers. Window dressing basically.

Edit: Tepper talked the market down before the open yesterday which also had an effect.

Looks like no Santa Claus this year =(

[tontoz]

Looks like an intra day pennant forming. Hoping it breaks upwards that is how i am playing it.

[Doomsday Dallas]

I bought some TSLA yesterday. It has fallen so far so fast i have to think a bounce is coming but i do have a hedge in place.


Idk... I think it could still fall a little more.

$120 is pretty low... but I bet it gets close to $100.

[tontoz]

Idk... I think it could still fall a little more.

$120 is pretty low... but I bet it gets close to $100.



Elon can't sell any more until after their earnings release because we are in the earnings quiet period. He just stated that he definitely wont be selling any next year. Their current PE is 38 with a growth rate over 40% so they really aren't overpriced.

If the market tanks it will surely take TSLA with it but it seems like a lot of bad news is priced in.

As a side note TSLA has been using a parking lot next to my office as a storage area for cars waiting to be delivered. There have been so many lately that they are taking up most of our parking lot too. i think the talk of demand issues are overblown.

[Doomsday Dallas]

I'm just waiting on TQQQ to get back in the $16 range and then I'm gonna start moving in. I think it can still get to $15... but $16 is still a very safe purchase.

the risk vs reward is getting better & better the lower it gets.


I think Apple can get well below $120

[Jud]

I'm just waiting on TQQQ to get back in the $16 range and then I'm gonna start moving in. I think it can still get to $15... but $16 is still a very safe purchase.

the risk vs reward is getting better & better the lower it gets.


I think Apple can get well below $120

good time to load up on some SQQQ for a swing

TQQQ will still be heading down for a while before there is a uptrend

[Doomsday Dallas]

Elon can't sell any more until after their earnings release because we are in the earnings quiet period. He just stated that he definitely wont be selling any next year. Their current PE is 38 with a growth rate over 40% so they really aren't overpriced.

If the market tanks it will surely take TSLA with it but it seems like a lot of bad news is priced in.

As a side note TSLA has been using a parking lot next to my office as a storage area for cars waiting to be delivered. There have been so many lately that they are taking up most of our parking lot too. i think the talk of demand issues are overblown.


Well... I hope you are right, but I think it still has a little more room to fall... same with the Nasdaq.

Nasdaq will easily get below 10,000 early next year... and people won't understand it.


We have a lot of drama in store for us here in the next few years "all things considered"... and I think many investors can sense that.

You have to have optimism for the market to grow... and right now... there isn't any... especially with all the recession talk that many feel is unavoidable.

[tontoz]

I'm just waiting on TQQQ to get back in the $16 range and then I'm gonna start moving in. I think it can still get to $15... but $16 is still a very safe purchase.

the risk vs reward is getting better & better the lower it gets.


I think Apple can get well below $120


Apple is a different story. Their PE far exceeds their growth rate so i expect them to underperform relative to the market.

I like playing the options on AAPL because the low beta makes the options relatively cheap and there is good liquidity.

I am bearish overall but right now i think too many people are bearish which can frequently be a contrarian indicator.

[Doomsday Dallas]

https://memes.getyarn.io/yarn-clip/46e52e35-9868-450c-a2b4-df53ceccc8da

[tontoz]

LOL short sellers are sitting on over $15 billion in gaines on TSLA right now. I am thinking they want to wait until next week to cover to delay their taxes. I think there will be an epic short squeeze in TSLA at some point next year, probably early. I might buy more on friday.

Today is still painful though. I have a hedge in place but it is only offsetting part of my loss today.

[AlternativeAcc.]

LOL short sellers are sitting on over $15 billion in gaines on TSLA right now. I am thinking they want to wait until next week to cover to delay their taxes. I think there will be an epic short squeeze in TSLA at some point next year, probably early. I might buy more on friday.

Today is still painful though. I have a hedge in place but it is only offsetting part of my loss today.

Tesla market cap is still ridiculously high. I've made about 200k in the last few weeks buying puts on it.

The stock was propped up by Elons reputation and cult following. Going to Twitter has damaged his reputation in the media and a lot of his cult following is on the left and thus have abandoned him

[tontoz]

Tesla market cap is still ridiculously high. I've made about 200k in the last few weeks buying puts on it.

The stock was propped up by Elons reputation and cult following. Going to Twitter has damaged his reputation in the media and a lot of his cult following is on the left and thus have abandoned him


Tesla's current PE of 35 is less than Chipotle, and that doesn't take into account today's decline. Tesla will have roughly 15% of the net cash flow of the entire automotive industry next year.

Next year they will start deliveries of the Cybertruck. They have a backlog of over 1 million orders.

They are also rampling up production of their Megapack for battery storage which will be printing money. They have over a year's worth of backlog of orders from that.

https://www.teslarati.com/tesla-megapack-megafactory-end-of-year-push-images/

Funny how people who talk about Tesla being overvalued never mention their P/E or growth rate. Nobody ever gives them any credit for their energy storage business.

[AlternativeAcc.]

Tesla's current PE of 35 is less than Chipotle, and that doesn't take into account today's decline. Tesla will have roughly 15% of the net cash flow of the entire automotive industry next year.

Next year they will start deliveries of the Cybertruck. They have a backlog of over 1 million orders.

They are also rampling up production of their Megapack for battery storage which will be printing money. They have over a year's worth of backlog of orders from that.

https://www.teslarati.com/tesla-megapack-megafactory-end-of-year-push-images/

Funny how people who talk about Tesla being overvalued never mention their P/E or growth rate. Nobody ever gives them any credit for their energy storage business.

Thats still too high for a car company who was propped up by a figure who has largely damaged his reputation in the eyes of investors and fans.

You're banking on speculative areas of their business some time next year isn't a good sign. Most of their revenue is from car sales. They're not a tech company.

Most of the car companies have a PE under 10, and a fraction of Teslas market cap

I do agree the fundamentals and potential are far greater than other car companies though, but I don't pretend that Musk wasn't the spearhead behind the massive growth and that his damaged reputation won't continue to be the main factor if their stock price in the short term. If you date back 5 years rhe stock has still grown massively.... I just see a long ways down before it goes up.

[tontoz]

Thats still too high for a car company who was propped up by a figure who has largely damaged his reputation in the eyes of investors and fans.

You're banking on speculative areas of their business some time next year isn't a good sign. Most of their revenue is from car sales. They're not a tech company.

Most of the car companies have a PE under 10, and a fraction of Teslas market cap

I do agree the fundamentals and potential are far greater than other car companies though, but I don't pretend that Musk wasn't the spearhead behind the massive growth and that his damaged reputation won't continue to be the main factor if their stock price in the short term. If you date back 5 years rhe stock has still grown massively.... I just see a long ways down before it goes up.

Speculative? They are selling the Megapacks right now (at over $1 million for just one)and have a huge backlog of orders. The orders are coming from governments and utilities. There is nothing speculative about it.

Comparing them to other car companies is ridiculous. Legacy car companies have slowing sales, a ton of debt and narrow margins. Their ice business will be holding them back from making the transition to EVs. Dealers don't want to sell EVs because they can't make money on maitenance.

Tesla is growing their sales at 40%+, their margins are far higher, they have virtually no debt and over $20 billion in cash on their balance sheet. There is no comparison.

Toyota and GM are going bankrupt for sure. Ford maybe.

[AlternativeAcc.]

Speculative? They are selling the Megapacks right now (at over $1 million for just one)and have a huge backlog of orders. The orders are coming from governments and utilities. There is nothing speculative about it.

Comparing them to other car companies is ridiculous. Legacy car companies have slowing sales, a ton of debt and narrow margins. Their ice business will be holding them back from making the transition to EVs. Dealers don't want to sell EVs because they can't make money on maitenance.

Tesla is growing their sales at 40%+, their margins are far higher, they have virtually no debt and over $20 billion in cash on their balance sheet. There is no comparison.

Toyota and GM are going bankrupt for sure. Ford maybe.

And with a recession looming and the public turning sour on Elon, demand and margins will shrink.

Long term I'm not sure what happens with the company or the stock.

Short term I'm betting there's still a long way down. Good luck.

[tontoz]

And with a recession looming and the public turning sour on Elon, demand and margins will shrink.

Long term I'm not sure what happens with the company or the stock.

Short term I'm betting there's still a long way down. Good luck.


Any recession will just strenthen their position relative to the competition. They have the $7500 discount coming next year thanks to the Inflation Reduction Act. They have the cash. They have the solar and the storage business. They have FSD.

Not to mention the semis which they just started selling and blow away anything on the market.

The Twitter turnaround is already well on it's way. Old management was very corrupt and Elon has cleaned all that up. Even after he took over the FBI had a guy on the inside trying to suppress the stories coming out. Now he is gone. New features are already coming fast and furious.

[bladefd]

Thats still too high for a car company who was propped up by a figure who has largely damaged his reputation in the eyes of investors and fans.

You're banking on speculative areas of their business some time next year isn't a good sign. Most of their revenue is from car sales. They're not a tech company.

Most of the car companies have a PE under 10, and a fraction of Teslas market cap

I do agree the fundamentals and potential are far greater than other car companies though, but I don't pretend that Musk wasn't the spearhead behind the massive growth and that his damaged reputation won't continue to be the main factor if their stock price in the short term. If you date back 5 years rhe stock has still grown massively.... I just see a long ways down before it goes up.

They have crazy profit margins. By far the highest of all car manufacturers. Something like 30-40% profit per car sold. have huge waiting lists too.

I agree Tesla stock oversold in 2020, but it's still a very strong company on very strong fundamentals.

[bladefd]

Speculative? They are selling the Megapacks right now (at over $1 million for just one)and have a huge backlog of orders. The orders are coming from governments and utilities. There is nothing speculative about it.

Comparing them to other car companies is ridiculous. Legacy car companies have slowing sales, a ton of debt and narrow margins. Their ice business will be holding them back from making the transition to EVs. Dealers don't want to sell EVs because they can't make money on maitenance.

Tesla is growing their sales at 40%+, their margins are far higher, they have virtually no debt and over $20 billion in cash on their balance sheet. There is no comparison.

Toyota and GM are going bankrupt for sure. Ford maybe.

Other companies are already eating into Tesla's car share. Tesla is good, but their years of dominance over EV market is at an end. Massive investments are on the way from pretty much every major car companies. Tesla will have to either slash prices or innovate further with some other new model. Toyota currently has the biggest number of cars being sold and will be forced to go into EVs market.

[Doomsday Dallas]

look at Rivian Automotive which is now on the Nasdaq.

their stock has gone to complete $hit too.

[tontoz]

Other companies are already eating into Tesla's car share. Tesla is good, but their years of dominance over EV market is at an end. Massive investments are on the way from pretty much every major car companies. Tesla will have to either slash prices or innovate further with some other new model. Toyota currently has the biggest number of cars being sold and will be forced to go into EVs market.



How is it at an end? Which cars are actually competing with them and profitable?

You obviously haven't been paying attention to what is going on. VW has delayed their plans for an EV factory after firing their CEO who was pro EV. Their cars suck as well lol. GM literally gave up on FSD and their Bolt was once again recalled due to fire hazard. Ford isn't making any money on the Mach E. Toyota and Honda literally have nothing.

Next week Tesla will get to sell the 3.and Y $7500 cheaper thanks to the Inflation Reduction Act. Their competition already had that benefit from the previous deal so they will have to sell at the same price. Teslas costs are coming down because they can produce at scale. Nobody else can. Plus they have over a million pre orders from the cybertruck.

Other companies don't have the factories, or even the raw materials, to compete with Tesla. Tesla is actually building a factory to refine lithium, a key battery component. They also have a super charger network already built out. Nobody else does.

And then there is FSD, recently released to anyone who purchased it, that can routinely drive without intervention. It's game over.

[bladefd]

How is it at an end? Which cars are actually competing with them and profitable?

You obviously haven't been paying attention to what is going on. VW has delayed their plans for an EV factory after firing their CEO who was pro EV. Their cars suck as well lol. GM literally gave up on FSD and their Bolt was once again recalled due to fire hazard. Ford isn't making any money on the Mach E. Toyota and Honda literally have nothing.

Next week Tesla will get to sell the 3.and Y $7500 cheaper thanks to the Inflation Reduction Act. Their competition already had that benefit from the previous deal so they will have to sell at the same price. Teslas costs are coming down because they can produce at scale. Nobody else can. Plus they have over a million pre orders from the cybertruck.

Other companies don't have the factories, or even the raw materials, to compete with Tesla. Tesla is actually building a factory to refine lithium, a key battery component. They also have a super charger network already built out. Nobody else does.

And then there is FSD, recently released to anyone who purchased it, that can routinely drive without intervention. It's game over.

Tesla currently has EV market share of 64%. More companies are bringing EVs to the market.


EV pioneer Tesla remains the market leader, with 64% of the share, down from 66% in Q2 and 75% in Q1. The declining share was inevitable as legacy automakers look to catch Tesla’s success, racing to fill the growing demand for electric vehicles.

Ford, GM, and Hyundai brands are leading in this respect as they scale production of popular EV models such as the Mustang Mach-E, Chevy Bolt EV, and Hyundai IONIQ 5.

Despite rising prices (not just with EVs), US consumers are buying electric vehicles at a record pace. New government incentives, such as the EV tax credit provided in the Inflation Reduction Act, are expected to drive demand even higher in the next few years.https://electrek.co/2022/10/18/us-electric-vehicle-sales-by-maker-and-ev-model-through-q3-2022/

It's not going up. Market share is only going down for Tesla as more EVs enter the market. Every year it will drop by x%. I know you are all gung-ho Elon Musk, but fact is no company holds dominance forever due to competition beginning to catchup eventually.

[tontoz]

Tesla currently has EV market share of 64%. More companies are bringing EVs to the market.

https://electrek.co/2022/10/18/us-electric-vehicle-sales-by-maker-and-ev-model-through-q3-2022/

It's not going up. Market share is only going down for Tesla as more EVs enter the market. Every year it will drop by x%. I know you are all gung-ho Elon Musk, but fact is no company holds dominance forever due to competition beginning to catchup eventually.



:facepalm

Per your link many of the non Tesla EVs are declining. The bolt.declined by 11.4% compared to the previous year. The ID4 declined by 10%. Those are two of the top sellers and they are declining because they aren't good cars.


Market share is nonsense.

By definition their market share had to go down because they were the only ones making EVs. If TSLA makes 10,000 EVs and nobody else makes any, then they have 100% market share.

Now let's say that the following year they double their production to 20,000 and other car makers make 100. In percentage terms they lost market share even though their lead expanded by 9,900 cars. That is exactly what is happening. In terms of numbers their lead is expanding.

The Model Y is the top selling car this year in Europe among all cars, not just EVs. TSLA delivered 343000 cars just last quarter. Nobody else is in the same zip code.

Feel free to name any car that is legit competition to TSLA. I won't hold my breath.

[Doomsday Dallas]

Amazon at $81.75

TQQQ at $16.20


It just keeps getting better and better

[Jud]

my SQQQ calls are printinggggg

[tontoz]

Looks like we won't get a meaningful bounce until next month, if we get a bounce at all.

[bladefd]

:facepalm

Per your link many of the non Tesla EVs are declining. The bolt.declined by 11.4% compared to the previous year. The ID4 declined by 10%. Those are two of the top sellers and they are declining because they aren't good cars.


Market share is nonsense.

By definition their market share had to go down because they were the only ones making EVs. If TSLA makes 10,000 EVs and nobody else makes any, then they have 100% market share.

Now let's say that the following year they double their production to 20,000 and other car makers make 100. In percentage terms they lost market share even though their lead expanded by 9,900 cars. That is exactly what is happening. In terms of numbers their lead is expanding.

The Model Y is the top selling car this year in Europe among all cars, not just EVs. TSLA delivered 343000 cars just last quarter. Nobody else is in the same zip code.

Feel free to name any car that is legit competition to TSLA. I won't hold my breath.

Tesla's competition has more models on the way so it's not like what you see is what you will have for years to come. Companies like Honda/Toyota might not currently have an EV on the market, but they are not sitting around watching & letting Tesla win. They have invested billions into research and development and will be entering the market in a couple years with something. Apple is also working on something. Batteries are becoming much more affordable so that will allow for lower prices. They will also have fewer growing pains and will be able to frog-leap over technologies saving time that it took Tesla years to get through. Tesla doesn't use some alien technology on both hardware & software side that can't be reverse-engineered and replicated by say Honda. I bet they are not far behind on both ends, at least in prototypes. There is too much money made in EVs for them not to be.

Tesla has reliability issues on their cars they need to hash out in the meantime. They are far from perfect. Even you would agree with that.

[tontoz]

You should really stop talking about this because you clearly haven't been following the situation. Toyota has come out and publicly downplayed EVs over and the over this year.



Toyota chief executive Akio Toyoda claims that he is among the “silent majority” of those in the automotive industry questioning whether electric vehicles are the only way forward.


https://www.carscoops.com/2022/12/toyota-ceo-says-silent-majority-of-auto-industry-is-doubting-ev-only-future/


Toyota did actually come out with an EV.this year but they had one little problem with it. The wheels were falling off.

:oldlol:

Seriously the wheels were actually falling off.

Apple has announced "plans" for an ev 2026 last I checked. Cadillac has the Lyric in production right now but they aren't delivering them because they can't get the super cruise software to work.

Several of the automakers (Ford, Audi, VW, BMW, Mercedes) have all given up on full self driving recently. They are other companies attempting it by using lidar which requires.mapping out the entire trip.

Tesla ftw and while their cars aren't perfect they are doing things that have never been done before other than FSD. They are using giga casting machines to make the body of the model y in Texas,, eliminating dozens of parts and the robots formerly needed to put them together. They are using.metals from their SpaceX colleagues for the castings. They are literally inventing their own metals.

They are also designing and making their own batteries in addition to getting them from suppliers. They are building a factory to refine lithium. Other car companies don't actually make cars. They assemble car parts that are built in many other locations.

Tesla is vertically integrated. They make their own engines and most of the other parts simply because they weren't able to find suppliers that would work with them years ago. The suppliers thought they would go bankrupt.

I am sure I am forgetting some things but I think you get the point.

[bladefd]

You should really stop talking about this because you clearly haven't been following the situation. Toyota has come out and publicly downplayed EVs over and the over this year.



https://www.carscoops.com/2022/12/toyota-ceo-says-silent-majority-of-auto-industry-is-doubting-ev-only-future/


Toyota did actually come out with an EV.this year but they had one little problem with it. The wheels were falling off.

:oldlol:

Seriously the wheels were actually falling off.

Apple has announced "plans" for an ev 2026 last I checked. Cadillac has the Lyric in production right now but they aren't delivering them because they can't get the super cruise software to work.

Several of the automakers (Ford, Audi, VW, BMW, Mercedes) have all given up on full self driving recently. They are other companies attempting it by using lidar which requires.mapping out the entire trip.

Tesla ftw and while their cars aren't perfect they are doing things that have never been done before other than FSD. They are using giga casting machines to make the body of the model y in Texas,, eliminating dozens of parts and the robots formerly needed to put them together. They are using.metals from their SpaceX colleagues for the castings. They are literally inventing their own metals.

They are also designing and making their own batteries in addition to getting them from suppliers. They are building a factory to refine lithium. Other car companies don't actually make cars. They assemble car parts that are built in many other locations.

Tesla is vertically integrated. They make their own engines and most of the other parts simply because they weren't able to find suppliers that would work with them years ago. The suppliers thought they would go bankrupt.

I am sure I am forgetting some things but I think you get the point.

Yes, I know Toyota CEO said that publicly. However, you don't know what they are doing behind closed doors. They all know EVs is the way forward rather than oil. Many of them have also invested r&d into hydrogen-fueled cars, which also has potential. Toyota sees the massive profit margins that Tesla cars sell for, and they won't ignore that. It would be foolish to do so.

Kia and Hyundai have some models out too that are doing pretty well. Kia just announced some electric SUV with 300+ range releasing in 2023, but we don't yet know pricing. Nissan is another company with a decade of experience in EVs working on other models outside of Leaf. A lot of these companies announce a year or so out from release rather than several years ahead so you don't know until you get close to release.

[tontoz]

Yes, I know Toyota CEO said that publicly. However, you don't know what they are doing behind closed doors. They all know EVs is the way forward rather than oil. Many of them have also invested r&d into hydrogen-fueled cars, which also has potential. Toyota sees the massive profit margins that Tesla cars sell for, and they won't ignore that. It would be foolish to do so.

Kia and Hyundai have some models out too that are doing pretty well. Kia just announced some electric SUV with 300+ range releasing in 2023, but we don't yet know pricing. Nissan is another company with a decade of experience in EVs working on other models outside of Leaf. A lot of these companies announce a year or so out from release rather than several years ahead so you don't know until you get close to release.


Toyota is toast. Hydrogen is a waste. There is a reason nobody is pursuing it.

You finally made a decent point. The Ionic 5 and Ev6 are legit good cars, probably the best competition for tesla. But they are supply constrained, aren't even trying for FSD and the dealers are charging way over sticker which is turning people off. And their price advantage over Tesla will shrink next week when the IRA kicks in.

[Doomsday Dallas]

I do like the way tontoz has defended Tesla here... I'll start to consider it once it's below $100.

I think low 90's is the bottom.

[Doomsday Dallas]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6c4RndxF-L4


https://i.pinimg.com/originals/be/b1/64/beb164a2cceeaff0864c6816912c91c3.gif

[bladefd]

Toyota is toast. Hydrogen is a waste. There is a reason nobody is pursuing it.

You finally made a decent point. The Ionic 5 and Ev6 are legit good cars, probably the best competition for tesla. But they are supply constrained, aren't even trying for FSD and the dealers are charging way over sticker which is turning people off. And their price advantage over Tesla will shrink next week when the IRA kicks in.

I think the ira applies to specifically American made cars from top to bottom so I don't think tesla would even be eligible for the new tax credit from ira.

[tontoz]

I think the ira applies to specifically American made cars from top to bottom so I don't think tesla would even be eligible for the new tax credit from ira.

Tesla is made in America far more than any other car. They have factories in CA and TX. They make their own batteries.

If they don't qualify then nobody does. Not to mention they recently changed the guidelines in the IRA to allow companies more time to onshore their production.

[bladefd]

Tesla is made in America far more than any other car. They have factories in CA and TX. They make their own batteries.

If they don't qualify then nobody does. Not to mention they recently changed the guidelines in the IRA to allow companies more time to onshore their production.

Tesla import certain parts so I don't think it's going to be eligible. There is a battery requirement for the minerals used (from foreign countries like China) so that is why I don't know if tesla would be eligible and whether or not for full 7,500

[tontoz]

Tesla import certain parts so I don't think it's going to be eligible. There is a battery requirement for the minerals used (from foreign countries like China) so that is why I don't know if tesla would be eligible and whether or not for full 7,500

They changed that rule a while ago, basically delaying the all in America rule because nobody would qualify next month.

We don't have all the raw materials in the US to make batteries. And I am pretty sure all the lithium refining is done in China.

Tesla is currently building a factory in TX to refine lithium but I think it will be at least a year before it is operational. Lithium is very common but there isn't much refining capacity. Years ago Musk was practically begging people to go into the refining business then finally said f-it we'll do it ourselves.

[tontoz]

Nice to see Tesla able to hold its gains today. Here lately seems like every attempted bounce has been sold off hard.

Apparently they haven't broken ground on their lithium refining factory yet but are in late stage negotiations. They will be processing other raw materials in addition to lithium.

[bladefd]

Tomorrow might be the day to buy as folks have last day to sell for tax benefits for this year. They will buy back in new year next week. I am still very hesitant buying anything...

[tontoz]

Tomorrow might be the day to buy as folks have last day to sell for tax benefits for this year. They will buy back in new year next week. I am still very hesitant buying anything...



Yeah any buy should realistically be a trade. I am hoping for a bounce early on next month. Hopefully there will be some follow thru on today's bounce.

The old saying don't fight the Fed is definitely in play. I don't think enough attention is being paid to the QT from the Fed. Everyone is focused on the rates

I don't know the bond market very well but I have been hearing some strange things happening there lately which could be foreshadowing some bad things in stocks

In general I feel more comfortable shorting lately but I want the market higher before I try it again.

[tontoz]

I just found out something odd about the IRA. For the purposes of that act the 5 seat Model Y isn't considered a SUV, it is considered a car therefore the MSRP needs to be $55k or below to qualify for the tax credit.

SUVs have an 80k limit.

But somehow the 7 seat M Y somehow is considered a SUV.

Gotta love the.govt:oldlol:

[bladefd]

Yeah any buy should realistically be a trade. I am hoping for a bounce early on next month. Hopefully there will be some follow thru on today's bounce.

The old saying don't fight the Fed is definitely in play. I don't think enough attention is being paid to the QT from the Fed. Everyone is focused on the rates

I don't know the bond market very well but I have been hearing some strange things happening there lately which could be foreshadowing some bad things in stocks

In general I feel more comfortable shorting lately but I want the market higher before I try it again.

No Santa Claus rally this year has me concerned. Santa Claus rally typically begins in last week of December. Only yesterday was positive but rest of this week, not so much...

[ZenMaster]

Unless peace stalks start in Ukraine, I strongly doubt there's going to be any kind of general rally coming up on stock markets in the near future.

Here's what happened in recent weeks:

1) Euro nations got together and signed a decree that neither of them are allowed to buy any oil above 60 which comes from Russia.
2) A couple of days ago, Putin signed a decree that Russian companies can't sell oil to any nation which are part of the below 60 rule, in effect from February.

If it comes to fruition, energy prices(and thus the price of almost everything) will start to increase again as Russia is the second largest exporter of raw oil in the world.
In Ukraine they're also worried about the 100K new Russian troops who are currently in training after being called in from their reserves and a potential new offensive in March. If this happens, expect more international sanctions, which in turn increases the prices for people all over the western world and a new drop in stock prices.

I know libs like to say things like "conservatives argued that there was a recession", like it's an opinion of someone else and that it's over, but it's not reality.


Over the last month, Solomon has warned of “bumpy times ahead” and signaled he’s sharpening the ax to cut more people from the firm. But the email was a brutal reminder that the culling could be days away.

“There are a variety of factors impacting the business landscape, including tightening monetary conditions that are slowing down economic activity,” Solomon said. “We need to proceed with caution and manage our resources wisely.”

https://nypost.com/2022/12/29/goldman-sachs-ceo-david-solomon-warns-mass-layoffs-are-just-weeks-away/

[HoopsNY]

There could certainly be a bear market rally. There have been a couple already but overall the downtrend is still intact.

Agreed; we're making lower highs and lower lows on SPY. I think we see SPY at 320-330 by June and DJI back at 28k.