Lakers 60/1 to win the chip, 30/1 to win the West

[ArbitraryWater]

��

definitely some value there.

After last nights big win, I put a litte on that.



https://i.gyazo.com/a53d44213d59e5b91bb7fa543051d839.png
https://i.gyazo.com/bce1528ce7499abd0851f2b08b511119.png


https://i.gyazo.com/ccf67f1733390fa703024f109894e63a.png


https://i.gyazo.com/b093fed7a3de76f4574928918888c2ee.png



Lakers have been my cash cows all season.

[RRR3]

God you’re so delusional about this team.

[Real Men Wear Green]

The odds could be 10k to 1 and you would see the"value." At a certain point you are just buying a lottery ticket except that there is a list of 10 to 15 NBA stars you need injured to have a good chance to cash in.

[ArbitraryWater]

The odds could be 10k to 1 and you would see the"value." At a certain point you are just buying a lottery ticket except that there is a list of 10 to 15 NBA stars you need injured to have a good chance to cash in.

who is that?

[ArbitraryWater]

The odds could be 10k to 1 and you would see the"value." At a certain point you are just buying a lottery ticket except that there is a list of 10 to 15 NBA stars you need injured to have a good chance to cash in.

well, yeah? That sentence would make sense if you said there was still no vaue, but obviously i would see vaue if there was..... more vaue.

lol.

you pop out some spursm8 takes every now and then. its impressive

[Real Men Wear Green]

who is that?

Curry, Jokic, Leonard ( ok you got that one), Doncic, Williamson, Morant and Booker out West. 7 already. Should LA pull the miracle and make the Finals they need to avoid Embiid Durant Tatum, Brown, and Giannis. So that's 11 and that's with me discounting Utah and Sacramento as dangerous playoff teams.

[Real Men Wear Green]

well, yeah? That sentence would make sense if you said there was still no vaue, but obviously i would see vaue if there was..... more vaue.

lol.

you pop out some spursm8 takes every now and then. its impressive

Neither of us had any idea what you're talking about. There is no value in betting on a team that isn't going to win. Vegas loves people like you that throw away money on lost causes thinking you will make a million.

[8Ball]

Curry, Jokic, Leonard ( ok you got that one), Doncic, Williamson, Morant and Booker out West. 7 already. Should LA pull the miracle and make the Finals they need to avoid Embiid Durant Tatum, Brown, and Giannis. So that's 11 and that's with me discounting Utah and Sacramento as dangerous playoff teams.

Nets and Boston are the only teams that are top tier and they are in the East.

Who knows what could happen.

I don't think Lakers can make it either, but if you replay the rest of this season 60 times, you think the Lakers win the championship zero times? If AD plays as well as he did earlier this year, they are as good as any top team in the west. I think he is making a marginal +EV bet.

[Real Men Wear Green]

Nets and Boston are the only teams that are top tier and they are in the East.

Who knows what could happen.

I don't think Lakers can make it either, but if you replay the rest of this season 60 times, you think the Lakers win the championship zero times? If AD plays as well as he did earlier this year, they are as good as any top team in the west. I think he is making a marginal +EV bet.

And if AD is injured like he is just a much as any star other than Leonard? They are not only relying on over 10 start injuries they are also relying on one of the most öftsn hurt stats themselves. That crap is a waste of money.

[SouBeachTalents]

Look, I agree IF AD is healthy, the Lakers will be a tough out for anyone. But the guy is literally unreliable to play even half the season at this point, you couldn't even trust him to survive a playoff run without getting injured.

Until he proves otherwise, the best case scenario for the Lakers is making the playoffs.

[Johnny32]

i bet bos to play lal in finals at +12500 so 125-1.

[ArbitraryWater]

Curry, Jokic, Leonard ( ok you got that one), Doncic, Williamson, Morant and Booker out West. 7 already. Should LA pull the miracle and make the Finals they need to avoid Embiid Durant Tatum, Brown, and Giannis. So that's 11 and that's with me discounting Utah and Sacramento as dangerous playoff teams.


lol, the only injury the lakers need to "rely" on is AD not being injured.

If he is healthy, they would be the favorites with this bron against anyone.

have you missed the lakers this year with AD completely? seems you have


Neither of us had any idea what you're talking about. There is no value in betting on a team that isn't going to win. Vegas loves people like you that throw away money on lost causes thinking you will make a million.

who is neither? wut?

Im part of the 2% that actually makes money gambling, I know throwing a little on these is extreme value, ive had many longterm plays that worked out well.


There absolutely is value on the lakers.

Its insane how dumb you are if you think the lakers cant possibly win the title.

youll see

[8Ball]

And if AD is injured like he is just a much as any star other than Leonard? They are not only relying on over 10 start injuries they are also relying on one of the most öftsn hurt stats themselves. That crap is a waste of money.

Which other star in the West's injury is stopping them from being on the same level as Boston / Nets?

Booker?

[Real Men Wear Green]

lol, the only injury the lakers need to "rely" on is AD not being injured.

If he is healthy, they would be the favorites with this bron against anyone.

have you missed the lakers this year with AD completely? seems you havesub-.500 basketball team... that is merely respectable when Davis is healthy. Which he is not now and has not been the last two seasons.




who is neither? wut?"Neither of us knows what you are talking about. "


Im part of the 2% that actually makes money gambling, I know throwing a little on these is extreme value, ive had many longterm plays that worked out well.


There absolutely is value on the lakers.&
Its insane how dumb you are if you think the lakers cant possibly win the title.

youll see There is no value in placing a losing bet. Lakers aren't winning the Championship this year. Unless you get a partial part or for winning the play-in game this is a guaranteed waste of money.

[Real Men Wear Green]

Which other star in the West's injury is stopping them from being on the same level as Boston / Nets?

Booker?

The West teams don't have to be as good as the Celtics just better than the Lakers. Lakers are 18-21. Completely hotels of Davis doesn't play and still not elite or West even with him. More likely to finish with a losing record than to make the Finals. Fat more likely. Hence the 60 to 1 odds to take people's money.

[ArbitraryWater]

sub-.500 basketball team... that is merely respectable when Davis is healthy. Which he is not now and has not been the last two seasons.



"Neither of us knows what you are talking about. "

There is no value in placing a losing bet. Lakers aren't winning the Championship this year. Unless you get a partial part or for winning the play-in game this is a guaranteed waste of money.

They can win every singe series with AD, you know that right?

As injury prone as AD is, its not a 60/1 shot that he is gonna be heathy come payoff time.

So this is obvious vaue.

they were buiding a big win streak when AD went down initiay. then came back and went OT with Boston and Phiy.

and the fact theyre hoding up so well without him..

easy bet to make.

you coud cash out or hedge a round or two into the playoffs.

whatever.

theres a reason i do this and you probaby dont.

[ArbitraryWater]

The West teams don't have to be as good as the Celtics just better than the Lakers. Lakers are 18-21. Completely hotels of Davis doesn't play and still not elite or West even with him. More likely to finish with a losing record than to make the Finals. Fat more likely. Hence the 60 to 1 odds to take people's money.

19-21 actuay and no, no chance

[Real Men Wear Green]

19-21. Good luck with your hedge.

[ArbitraryWater]

If anyone still cant see that theyre giving any team home or away the business, I cant help you.

The Celtics themseves woud probably be underdogs in a series lol.

Its just a matter of if the refs stop taking games from them and they make the playoffs.

[Real Men Wear Green]

13th seed. Still.

[ArbitraryWater]

13th seed. Still.

and what if they become the 10th seed? You gonna be very very surprised if they make the playoffs and knock teams out?

[Real Men Wear Green]

The greatest 10th seed of all time...is not a playoff team. No one talks about the Raptors winning a championship.

[ArbitraryWater]

What does that post even mean?

How does it answer my question?

if they become the 10th seed are you gonna be surprised if they make the playoffs and knock teams out?

[Real Men Wear Green]

What does that post even mean?

How does it answer my question?

if they become the 10th seed are you gonna be surprised if they make the playoffs and knock teams out?

Learn English and you won't have to ask stupid questions.

[ArbitraryWater]

Learn English and you won't have to ask stupid questions.

What a comfortable way to ignore a plain question.


Maybe powertrip some more like when starface made you feel some type of way for being a *****.

[Real Men Wear Green]

I am quite comfortable telling someone that asked a stupid question that their question was stupid. Lakers are 23-27 12th in the West. Likely about to be 23-28 after AD misses another game recovering and James sits for more load management (or possibly taking a mental health day after Saturday's meltdown). Bad basketball teams don't win championships. The 10th seed in the eastern conference, the Raptors, are no one's pick to win the championship. The actual 10 seed in the West is the Jazz. Anyone picking them?

But the 13th team is special.

[MrFonzworth]

What a comfortable way to ignore a plain question.


Maybe powertrip some more like when starface made you feel some type of way for being a *****.

Holy meltdown:roll:

[nightlight]

What a comfortable way to ignore a plain question.


Maybe powertrip some more like when starface made you feel some type of way for being a *****.

You are a weirdo. Why do you need to latch onto someone and worship them? You are supposed to be outgrowing this stuff not expanding on your creepy behavior by crowning starface as your next hero.

[ArbitraryWater]

I am quite comfortable telling someone that asked a stupid question that their question was stupid. Lakers are 23-27 12th in the West. Likely about to be 23-28 after AD misses another game recovering and James sits for more load management (or possibly taking a mental health day after Saturday's meltdown). Bad basketball teams don't win championships. The 10th seed in the eastern conference, the Raptors, are no one's pick to win the championship. The actual 10 seed in the West is the Jazz. Anyone picking them?

But the 13th team is special.

Applying context is a horror for you, isnt it?

You consider the lakers a bad team. Right. How bad are the celtics, given they were 1 correct call from losing to this team at home?

Again.

If they become the 10th seed are you gonna be surprised if they make the playoffs and knock teams out?

[Real Men Wear Green]

The Celtics have lost to the magic two or three times. That's a stupid way to analyze things. Season is 82 games so sometimes crap happens. If the best team always won then someone would be 82 and 0.

[dankok8]

Agree that the Lakers are a great bet at those odds. Honestly there is no team in the league that looks scary right now. We might have #1 seeds with 55 wins +5 SRS. Lakers with healthy Lebron and AD can win the title this year and I wouldn't be that surprised.

[Full Court]

OP, don't listen to the naysayers. Bet the farm on the Lakers. You'll thank me later.

[ArbitraryWater]

Agree that the Lakers are a great bet at those odds. Honestly there is no team in the league that looks scary right now. We might have #1 seeds with 55 wins +5 SRS. Lakers with healthy Lebron and AD can win the title this year and I wouldn't be that surprised.

Bingo.

[ArbitraryWater]

https://i.gyazo.com/8e45b515ca03072923d3904b49290233.png



watch this space, chump ass RMWG

[red1]

I think I might put something down on the lakers too


its been a minute since I placed any bets - this is a nice bet for sure

[NBAGOAT]

they still need more guys who arent bad at basketball but rui was a start at least. Reaves coming back is nice but a small trade like walker+filler+2nd for burks would help too

[RRR3]

they still need more guys who arent bad at basketball but rui was a start at least. Reaves coming back is nice but a small trade like walker+filler+2nd for burks would help too
They have to get rid of Flubadubbrook. Ham is obsessed with him

[NBAGOAT]

They have to get rid of Flubadubbrook. Ham is obsessed with him

easier said than done now when the lakers dont want to give up the firsts and lack of sellers. Indiana says they dont want to trade turner. Bojan/burks/noel obviously isnt worth both firsts but will detroit take only one?. they think they can get an unprotected for bojan and maybe a 1st for burks. Think raptors can get better for fvv than westbrook+1 first. Hornets package of some combo of hayward, rozier, plumlee etc is is medicore, not worth 1 first imo when westbrook has half a year left and those guys are mostly on bad deals.

[RRR3]

easier said than done now when the lakers dont want to give up the firsts and lack of sellers. Indiana says they dont want to trade turner. Bojan/burks/noel obviously isnt worth both firsts but will detroit take only one?. they think they can get an unprotected for bojan and maybe a 1st for burks. Think raptors can get better for fvv than westbrook+1 first. Hornets package of some combo of hayward, rozier, plumlee etc is is medicore, not worth 1 first imo when westbrook has half a year left and those guys are mostly on bad deals.
Yeah, the Lakers don't actually want to get rid of Disasterbrook I know. But they should. They aren't interested in competing.

[Real Men Wear Green]

https://i.gyazo.com/8e45b515ca03072923d3904b49290233.png



watch this space, chump ass RMWG

They win a game and you go nuts. I don't care if you lose money. Go bet even more on the 13th seed.

[ArbitraryWater]

They win a game and you go nuts. I don't care if you lose money. Go bet even more on the 13th seed.

What are you talking about? I‘ve been saying this for over a month. Game my ass.

Its painfully obvious by the way they play to anyone with a basketball acumen. But you dumb it down to record / rank like there‘s nothing else to it.

[Real Men Wear Green]

24-28 is pretty obvious and I would say that you've been an idiot your whole life not just a month.

[ArbitraryWater]

I think I might put something down on the lakers too


its been a minute since I placed any bets - this is a nice bet for sure

odds have gone down pretty significanty since this

[ArbitraryWater]

https://i.gyazo.com/03423eb6815c0a29c91b59f4076589b3.png



Keep watching, boy.

[Real Men Wear Green]

I don't watch bad teams dumbass.

[Charlie Sheen]

Has anyone besides the Rockets ever won a title without having homecourt in any series? It is not an easy road.

[ArbitraryWater]

I don't watch bad teams dumbass.

:oldlol:


then how do you know theyre bad?

[ArbitraryWater]

Lakers are 12-5 with Bron & AD since Nov 12 / the bad start.


Stay strapped.

[Real Men Wear Green]

:oldlol:


then how do you know theyre bad?

The standings are right there. You keep posting them as if moving from 13 to 12 is important beyond losing draft position.

[ArbitraryWater]

The standings are right there. You keep posting them as if moving from 13 to 12 is important beyond losing draft position.


Congrats, you are beyond help.

Stay dense.

[RRR3]

24-28 is pretty obvious and I would say that you've been an idiot your whole life not just a month.
:yaohappy:

[ArbitraryWater]

RMWG and Stronglurk gonna have to suck my dick pretty soon

I might let em off the hook cause im not gay

[Real Men Wear Green]

That statement of yours was actually very gay. Pretty much the definition of gay. And also stupid but you seem to get off on going nuts over regular season victories. And sex with men.

[SouBeachTalents]

That statement of yours was actually very gay. Pretty much the definition of gay. And also stupid but you seem to get off on going nuts over regular season victories. And sex with men.
That doesn't seem that gay tbh.

[Real Men Wear Green]

That doesn't seem that gay tbh.

Hetero men don't want to have sex with me. This whole convo is just strange.

[BallsOut]

RMWG and Stronglurk gonna have to suck my dick pretty soon

I might let em off the hook cause im not gay

Alpha post. Didn’t even get banned for typing that :lebronamazed:

[ArbitraryWater]

Alpha post. Didn’t even get banned for typing that :lebronamazed:


balls out indeed bro :rockon:

[ArbitraryWater]

Hetero men don't want to have sex with me. This whole convo is just strange.

rmwg at his most dense :bowdown:

[Real Men Wear Green]

rmwg at his most dense :bowdown:

I have nothing against gay people. But you should focus your affection elsewhere.

[ArbitraryWater]

Lets see how far we can take this bad boy

[Real Men Wear Green]

Lets see how far we can take this bad boy

I thought we already established that I don't want to hear any more of your pick up lines.

[ArbitraryWater]

60 to 1, pimps


And we goin' deep!

[ArbitraryWater]

https://i.gyazo.com/ce59e369743f61096025745b1ab18c15.jpg

[kawhileonard2]

https://i.gyazo.com/ce59e369743f61096025745b1ab18c15.jpg

Why not keep Westbrook then? Can't even make play in with the all time leader in triple doubles and a guy who won league mvp?

[ArbitraryWater]

Why not keep Westbrook then? Can't even make play in with the all time leader in triple doubles and a guy who won league mvp?

What are you talking about?

[Manny98]

I'm smelling a Lakers vs Celtics final

[Johnny32]

I'm smelling a Lakers vs Celtics final

got exactly this at 125-1. bet made in jan at mgm. wonder what those odds are now.

[ArbitraryWater]

you can still get the lakers at 15 to 1 at betano

[ArbitraryWater]

the lakers are 8/1 after the first round and i still think thats value.

they are the most impressive team of the playoffs so far.

only nuggets come close.

[3ba11]

the lakers are 8/1 after the first round and i still think thats value.

they are the most impressive team of the playoffs so far.

only nuggets come close.


No team has a sidekick anywhere near AD

Almost no one has an all-star 3rd option like D-Lo

No one has 4th and 5th options like Reaves/Rui

The NBA completely stacked Lebron's team so he can get carried to a 5th chip - he's facing zero defensive attention because numerous teammates match his scoring and attract equal defensive attention... He's completely carried.

[ArbitraryWater]

No team has a sidekick anywhere near AD

Almost no one has an all-star 3rd option like D-Lo

No one has 4th and 5th options like Reaves/Rui

The NBA completely stacked Lebron's team so he can get carried to a 5th chip - he's facing zero defensive attention because numerous teammates match his scoring and attract equal defensive attention... He's completely carried.

AD is the sidekick?

[3ba11]

AD is the sidekick?


Lebron or AD - they alternate being the sidekick and sometimes Lebron is 4th option behind AD, Reaves and Pippen, I mean Rui

Lebron and AD will average about the same on this playoff run just like 2020 when AD led the NBA in playoff scoring.. It will be AD-ball against the toughest teams just like the 2020 Playoffs when AD led the Lakers to the Finals over Denver.

Lebron needs teammates that can match or lead him in scoring for entire playoff runs like 2011, 2016, or 2020 - he can't win Finals by carrying the scoring load because he's too ball-dominant at carry-job volume to beat top teams..




AD is the sidekick?


passers like Magic or Lebron need all-time scorers to pass to and a passer's need for scoring help is exacerbated by being too ball-dominant at carry-job volume to beat top teams.

Magic was massively-upset when he tried to carry the scoring load against KJ's Suns in 1990, which was similar to Lebron losing the 2009 ECF and therefore never beating a top 5 SRS team with poor scoring and efficiency from a sidekick (no carry-jobs vs top teams in 2 decades).

Otoh, expert jumpshooters like Curry, Kobe, or MJ can score 40 while the ball moves and teammates assist them, so their superior brand can beat top teams at carry-job volume and therefore win with less scoring help, aka secondary-producing sidekicks that can't achieve elite averages like Wiggins or Pau, which forces the 1st option to defeat maximum defensive attention (carry scoring load on championship level).




AD is the sidekick?


In addition to carrying the scoring load and therefore needing less scoring help, expert jumpshooters also need less help because they don't impose spot-up roles, so their skillset has the teammate development, fits and strategic capacity/coaching to win organically.. Otoh, Lebron's imposition of spot-up roles stall young players, thereby needing ready-made stars to win (can't win organically via chemistry & teammate development, so he needs more help).

[ArbitraryWater]

thats amazing, lebron at 38 in season 20 is 1a/1b with peak AD, basicay still a shout for BITW.


thats GOAT level dominance

[3ba11]

Lebron's modus operandi is to tank the regular season and turn his preseason favorite into a massive underdog

Accordingly, his wins are overrated as "upsets" and he's never knocked for losing with his "underdogs", since they were underdogs and therefore lacked sufficient help (even though he had the preseason favorite, aka the best on-paper talent in the league)

This is how the fake debate is created, supported and continued.. If he was really the goat, his skillset would yield dominating favorites with little help instead of being the neediest superstar of all-time.. No player in history needs more help than Lebron's skillset of abnormal ball-dominance for his size/pos (which imposes spot-up roles that yields weak teammate development, fits, strategic capacity/coaching and ultimately team ceilings/Finals records)

[Johnny32]

got exactly this at 125-1. bet made in jan at mgm. wonder what those odds are now.

cashed this out yesterday. not the best timing lol.

[tpols]

God you’re so delusional about this team.

Turns out lil arby was right. Lakers were at 60/1 few months ago, and just jumped from +1600 yesterday to +1000 today. A huge 1 day leap. And yes they are stacked to the brim. AD, Lebron, Reaves, Dlo, shroeder... arguably 5 All Star talents and then awesome role players like rui and Vanderbilt. Gotta eat your crow bro. That 60/1 or +6000 odds was an insane value pick that gone now.

[ArbitraryWater]

cashed this out yesterday. not the best timing lol.

Jesus christ dude, why?


How much would it have made and how much did you get?

[dankok8]

At +1000 I still think the Lakers are an insanely good bet. Their realistic chances of winning the title are like 50%.

[ArbitraryWater]

wondering if I should do my first hedge here, and put something on the Warriors to win the series at 5/1. This series is largely gonna rest on game 6.

[Tez62]

wondering if I should do my first hedge here, and put something on the Warriors to win the series at 5/1. This series is largely gonna rest on game 6.

Nice initial bet. And yes, the odds for Lakers now maybe a touch rich - the value is on the side of hedging IMO

[ArbitraryWater]

4/1 now, 2/1 to win the West.

[dazzer87]

Im in…Got lakers to win it all at 15-1…Odds went up after last night……..

[BallsOut]

Im in…Got lakers to win it all at 15-1…Odds went up after last night……..

:lebronamazed: