Gotterdammerung
03-28-2023, 12:55 PM
Although the current standings aren't locked in with only 10 games remaining, I'd like to share my thoughts on what I know, think I know, and don't know:
What I know:
In the past 30 years, only the 1995 Houston Rockets added a Hall of Fame player mid-season, finished below fourth place, and won the championship. Championship teams typically have stable rosters and perform well during the regular season. Despite numerous high-profile mid-season trades, the title race this year appears to be less wide open than previous years, even without a dominant team. The 2023 NBA champions are likely to be the Bucks, Celtics, or Nuggets.
The Bucks, 2021 champions, would have likely won in 2022 if Middleton hadn't been injured. They have been strong this season, even if not dominant. The Celtics, last year's finalists, have reached the Eastern Conference finals four times in the past six seasons, proving their playoff prowess. The Nuggets have been the best in the West for most of the season and the last time they were at full strength, they reached the Western Conference finals in 2020.
You might be asking... what about the Sixers, Cavaliers, or the Grizzlies, Kings??!
Sixers: They must overcome Embiid's inconsistent playoff performances and Harden's reputation as a playoff choker.
Cavaliers: While they have a strong defense and star in Mitchell, they as the fourth seeded team, need to beat both the Bucks and Celtics to reach the Finals, which is unlikely.
Grizzlies: Despite their growth, they are unproven and have let their talk overshadow their play this year.
Kings: Coach Brown deserves Coach of the Year recognition, but the team is young, inexperienced, and poor on defense. That is three fatal weaknesses in the playoffs.
What I think I know:
The regular season is more important than people realize. You are who you are.
And the "team that nobody wants to face" in the playoffs is a myth. The Clippers, Warriors, Lakers, and Suns all have reasons to doubt their championship potential, from injuries and chemistry issues to inconsistent defense and roster weaknesses.
The Clippers tried to cheat their way through the regular season with load management. Result? No chemistry on offense or defense. Despite load management, George is injured again, and nobody knows if or when he'll be back. After 70 games we are supposed to believe the Clippers will suddenly find health and chemistry?
:biggums:
The GSW are crap on the road, too small, and inconsistent defensively, and turn the ball over too much especially in the clutch. is Wiggins ever coming back?
The Lakers? :oldlol: After getting rid of their favorite scapegoat, they're barely hanging onto a play-in spot. Bad on defense, 3-point shooting percentage the same post-Westbrook. Well, it is possible LBJ suddenly starts playing defense, Davis will not get injured putting on his shoes, and the new guys will make playoff contributes. Possible but highly unlikely.
Suns might be dangerous, if KD gets healthy, stays healthy, and Booker stays healthy, and Ayton does not return to Coach's doghouse, and Paul does not suffer his annual playoff collapse, and they find a defensive stopper at wing... but the Suns are stuck at the fourth seed and hardly look the part of a championship team.
What I don't know:
Injuries, recoveries, suspensions, and foul trouble can all impact the playoffs. It's also uncertain which young star will make a deep playoff run for the first time, similar to Curry in 2015. :confusedshrug:
What I know:
In the past 30 years, only the 1995 Houston Rockets added a Hall of Fame player mid-season, finished below fourth place, and won the championship. Championship teams typically have stable rosters and perform well during the regular season. Despite numerous high-profile mid-season trades, the title race this year appears to be less wide open than previous years, even without a dominant team. The 2023 NBA champions are likely to be the Bucks, Celtics, or Nuggets.
The Bucks, 2021 champions, would have likely won in 2022 if Middleton hadn't been injured. They have been strong this season, even if not dominant. The Celtics, last year's finalists, have reached the Eastern Conference finals four times in the past six seasons, proving their playoff prowess. The Nuggets have been the best in the West for most of the season and the last time they were at full strength, they reached the Western Conference finals in 2020.
You might be asking... what about the Sixers, Cavaliers, or the Grizzlies, Kings??!
Sixers: They must overcome Embiid's inconsistent playoff performances and Harden's reputation as a playoff choker.
Cavaliers: While they have a strong defense and star in Mitchell, they as the fourth seeded team, need to beat both the Bucks and Celtics to reach the Finals, which is unlikely.
Grizzlies: Despite their growth, they are unproven and have let their talk overshadow their play this year.
Kings: Coach Brown deserves Coach of the Year recognition, but the team is young, inexperienced, and poor on defense. That is three fatal weaknesses in the playoffs.
What I think I know:
The regular season is more important than people realize. You are who you are.
And the "team that nobody wants to face" in the playoffs is a myth. The Clippers, Warriors, Lakers, and Suns all have reasons to doubt their championship potential, from injuries and chemistry issues to inconsistent defense and roster weaknesses.
The Clippers tried to cheat their way through the regular season with load management. Result? No chemistry on offense or defense. Despite load management, George is injured again, and nobody knows if or when he'll be back. After 70 games we are supposed to believe the Clippers will suddenly find health and chemistry?
:biggums:
The GSW are crap on the road, too small, and inconsistent defensively, and turn the ball over too much especially in the clutch. is Wiggins ever coming back?
The Lakers? :oldlol: After getting rid of their favorite scapegoat, they're barely hanging onto a play-in spot. Bad on defense, 3-point shooting percentage the same post-Westbrook. Well, it is possible LBJ suddenly starts playing defense, Davis will not get injured putting on his shoes, and the new guys will make playoff contributes. Possible but highly unlikely.
Suns might be dangerous, if KD gets healthy, stays healthy, and Booker stays healthy, and Ayton does not return to Coach's doghouse, and Paul does not suffer his annual playoff collapse, and they find a defensive stopper at wing... but the Suns are stuck at the fourth seed and hardly look the part of a championship team.
What I don't know:
Injuries, recoveries, suspensions, and foul trouble can all impact the playoffs. It's also uncertain which young star will make a deep playoff run for the first time, similar to Curry in 2015. :confusedshrug: