Only one voter didn’t pick Paolo for ROY. He knows you know why.

[Kblaze8855]

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[RRR3]

I mean he’s right even if it’s for the wrong reasons. Rookies are rarely good players and often give roles bigger than they’re ready for. Kessler actually was a very positive contributor. What probably kept him from being in the running is he was a backup for a while. As a starter he averaged 11.5/10.2 with 2.7 blocks with a 69.8 TS%.

[ShawkFactory]

Ew dude. The ROY is usually not making the playoffs. The 20 mpg big who “makes winning plays” on a team that also didn’t make the playoffs isn’t more deserving for this one.

You’re allowed to be high usage, low efficiency as a rookie. Particularly if you’re on a team who just won 20 games and picked first to get you.

[RRR3]

Ew dude. The ROY is usually not making the playoffs. The 20 mpg big who “makes winning plays” on a team that also didn’t make the playoffs isn’t more deserving for this one.

You’re allowed to be high usage, low efficiency as a rookie. Particularly if you’re on a team who just won 20 games and picked first to get you.
Kessler was being underplayed though it’s not like he wasn’t this good from the jump. I don’t know why people change the criteria they vote with for other awards for ROY and 6MOY. It should be consistent.

[Kblaze8855]

Kessler was being underplayed though it’s not like he wasn’t this good from the jump. I don’t know why people change the criteria they vote with for other awards for ROY and 6MOY. It should be consistent.


People got on him about claiming it was about analytics then not voting Jokic for mvp.

[Xiao Yao You]

Ew dude. The ROY is usually not making the playoffs. The 20 mpg big who “makes winning plays” on a team that also didn’t make the playoffs isn’t more deserving for this one.

You’re allowed to be high usage, low efficiency as a rookie. Particularly if you’re on a team who just won 20 games and picked first to get you.

you were allowed. We have advanced stats now why ignore them?

[ShawkFactory]

you were allowed. We have advanced stats now why ignore them?

Because rookies get placed into vastly different situations, and advanced stats tend to reflect situation. As I’ve said before, no advanced stat should be used without context.

Paolo right away was the man and was allowed to play freely and make mistakes because the team was too young and wasn’t going anywhere anyway. He was never asked to play system winning basketball and shouldn’t be penalized for not really doing so. He was clearly the best player as a rookie and would still be the #1 pick. That’s how’d I’d vote on it.

[ShawkFactory]

As an aside, low minute and low usage bigs tend to be highly over-valued with advanced numbers. It’s not a real comparison here.

[RRR3]

People got on him about claiming it was about analytics then not voting Jokic for mvp.
Ok well then he is just being a homer. But I would have picked Kessler. Really good defender already and at least he does his job on offense.

[RRR3]

As an aside, low minute and low usage bigs tend to be highly over-valued with advanced numbers. It’s not a real comparison here.
That doesn’t really work when Paolo’s role on a good team would be fairly low usage. He’s also not tasked with nearly the same responsibilities as Kessler on defense so just saying Paolo had to do more is only talking about one side of the ball. Neither could play the other’s role. Kessler was about as impactful as Rudy Gobert this year by the metrics I looked at.

[HoopsNY]

People got on him about claiming it was about analytics then not voting Jokic for mvp.

If everything is analytics, then there is no need for voters. I don't think the analytics crowd has considered this in the grand scheme of things.

[iamgine]

Paolo vs Kessler would be like comparing Jordan Clarkson vs Al Horford.

Low end first option vs elite role player.

I like the elite role player better. I'd have voted the same. Although the minutes played difference would make me pause a bit.

[RRR3]

Paolo vs Kessler would be like comparing Jordan Clarkson vs Al Horford.

Low end first option vs elite role player.

I like the elite role player better. I'd have voted the same. Although the minutes played difference would make me pause a bit.
You don't understand basketball very well if you'd rather have Clarkson over Horford.

[iamgine]

You don't understand basketball very well if you'd rather have Clarkson over Horford.

Well I guess it's good that I'd much rather have Horford.

[Full Court]

Just shows yet again that advanced stats are virtually worthless in determining who's better between player A and player B.

[ShawkFactory]

That doesn’t really work when Paolo’s role on a good team would be fairly low usage. He’s also not tasked with nearly the same responsibilities as Kessler on defense so just saying Paolo had to do more is only talking about one side of the ball. Neither could play the other’s role. Kessler was about as impactful as Rudy Gobert this year by the metrics I looked at.

Perhaps but there’s no certainty in that, or in what his game would look like in that situation. We can only go by what happened.

To me it’s the same as a QB drafted #1 to a 2-14 and one drafted towards the end of the first round to a team that won 9. One guy is allowed to throw and make mistakes, he’ll have a lot of numbers but a lot of turnovers and the team wins 6 games. The other game manages and gets half the numbers but also half the turnovers and the team wins 10 games. Personally, I’m giving the award to the first guy.

[Xiao Yao You]

Paolo vs Kessler would be like comparing Jordan Clarkson vs Al Horford.

Low end first option vs elite role player.

I like the elite role player better. I'd have voted the same. Although the minutes played difference would make me pause a bit.

I hope Paulo doesn't suck like Clarkson

[Xiao Yao You]

Just shows yet again that advanced stats are virtually worthless in determining who's better between player A and player B.

hardly. I'll take the guy making the biggest impact which will be the guy with the better advanced stats not the guy scoring more points while not playing D or passing the ball

[StrongLurk]

Choosing Kessler over Paolo is dumb considering the expectations of the ROTY award.

[RRR3]

Well I guess it's good that I'd much rather have Horford.
Misread your post

[Kblaze8855]

hardly. I'll take the guy making the biggest impact which will be the guy with the better advanced stats not the guy scoring more points while not playing D or passing the ball


Every so called advanced stat kicks out ludicrous results their proponents simply label as hundreds of outliers while pretending the methodology is sound. Mostly the same numbers combined in different subjective ways and plus/minus which will always be an issue of who comes in when you sit not what you do while you play.

There are no reliable numbers I’ve ever seen. All of them give too many head scratching results when you look at the whole list.

I still remember some clown trying to convince people Amir Johnson was more impactful than Kobe on here.

[RRR3]

Every so called advanced stat kicks out ludicrous results their proponents simply label as hundreds of outliers while pretending the methodology is sound. Mostly the same numbers combined in different subjective ways and plus/minus which will always be an issue of who comes in when you sit not what you do while you play.

There are no reliable numbers I’ve ever seen. All of them give too many head scratching results when you look at the whole list.

I still remember some clown trying to convince people Amir Johnson was more impactful than Kobe on here.
This one is very good. Not perfect but generally matches my eye test. https://dunksandthrees.com/epm

Some of their data for stats is wrong though idk why.

[tontoz]

I don't think you can evaluate rookies the same as vets. A rookie being thrown into a situation where they have to dominate the offense should be graded on a curve. It is a lot easier for a rookie to play a low usage role.

Missed shots do matter, but i think we have to give somewhat of a pass for a high usage rookie.