Gotterdammerung's 2023 NBA Playoff Picks!

[Gotterdammerung]

The 2023 NBA Playoffs are upon us, and there's a prevailing narrative that more teams than usual have a shot at winning the title. However, as the playoffs unfold, we may see fewer legitimate contenders than the narrative suggests. The regular season still matters, and teams with less load management and better continuity are likely to succeed over those that frequently change rosters.

Onto the picks!

Eastern Conference
Miami Heat @ Milwaukee Bucks

Although sports media often hypes up the 8th seeded team as the "team nobody wants to face," there are usually valid reasons for their position. The Heat was a mediocre and flawed team this season, ranking last in scoring and 27th in rebounding. While they were second in points allowed, that is misleading because they play a deliberate and slow pace, and more importantly, they finished 22nd in defensive FG%, showing that their defense isn't as strong as it might seem. For the record, the 2020 Miami Heat that made the Finals finished 7th in DFG%.

The Bucks, on the other hand, have MVP-caliber Giannis Antetokounmpo leading the way and better depth than last year. With Middleton returning and Holiday's All-Star performance (19.3 ppg, 7.4 apg), along with a strong supporting cast full of quality rotation players (Portis, Allen, Crowder, Connaughton, Ingles, and Carter) the Bucks are loaded. They boast impressive stats: leading the league in rebounding and second in DFG%, despite committing the second fewest fouls, enabling them to give up the third fewest free throws.

Milwaukee in 5

Atlanta Hawks @ Boston Celtics

The Hawks were consistently mediocre this season, going through three coaches without any impact on their .500 record. While their offense has been strong (3rd in scoring, 10th in rebounding), their defense is utter crap (25th in defensive FG% and 26th in points allowed). Their victory in the play-in tournament against the Miami Heat does not translate into anything except first-round roadkill.

The Celtics, however, maintained the league's best record for most of the season before slipping behind the Bucks who had a 16 game winning streak. Their balanced performance (4th in scoring, 5th in points allowed, 5th in DFG%, and 7th in rebounding) and the dynamic duo of Tatum (30.1 ppg, 8.8 rpg, and 4.6 apg) and Brown (26.6 ppg, 6.9 rpg, and 3.5 apg) make them a formidable contender.

Boston in 4

Brooklyn Nets @ Philadelphia 76ers

The Nets are a scrappy team that plays hard. Despite the chaos and drama Irving created in the first half of the season, there is some poetic justice that the Nets made the playoffs, while Irving's new team fell out (they were 5th in the West at one point!). However, Embiid poses a matchup nightmare for any team, especially the undersized Nets.

Although Embiid had an MVP-caliber season, his playoff numbers tend to be slightly worse than his regular-season stats (24 ppg and 0.468 FG% compared to 27.2 ppg and .501 FG%). When a team relies on their star for productivity and efficiency, it's challenging to compensate if they underperform. Nevertheless, Embiid is expected to take advantage of the smaller Nets defenders. Harden may experience highs and lows, while Maxey will likely step up in Harden's off moments.

Philadelphia in 5.

New York Knicks @ Cleveland Cavaliers

The Knicks return to the playoffs for the second time in Thibodeau's three seasons. Randle had an excellent season (25.1 ppg, 10 rpg, 4.1 apg), but his status for the playoffs is uncertain due to a sprained ankle. Fortunately, Brunson (24 ppg, 6.2 apg) has stepped up as a playmaker, scorer, and leader. The Knicks excel in rebounding (3rd), DFG% (3rd), and ball protection (3rd). They were at .500 until early February, then they finished strong with 17 wins in their last 25 games.

The Cavaliers benefit from Mitchell's high productivity (28.3 ppg, .484 FG%, and .867 FT%) and Garland's solid performance (21.6 ppg, 7.8 apg), but still rank 25th in scoring. They focus on a low possession, high-efficiency offense (5th in FG% and 6th in turnovers) and strong defense (1st in points allowed, 7th in DFG%). However, their rebounding leaves room for improvement (25th).

The Cavaliers' size, defense, and Mitchell's playoff experience should give them the edge in this matchup.

Cleveland in 6

[Gotterdammerung]

Western Conference

Minnesota Timberwolves @ Denver Nuggets

The Timberwolves are a dysfunctional team in many ways. They finished third in the league in FG%, but 27th in turnovers and 29th in fouls, indicating how many possessions they squander. While they're talented and might be competitive, the Nuggets should take care of business.

Jokic had another MVP-caliber season, his best yet, and this time he has a solid supporting cast. Murray regained his All-Star form (20 ppg, 6.2 apg), while Porter (17.4 ppg) and Gordon (16.3 ppg) serve as excellent complementary scorers. The Nuggets lead the league in FG% but rank just 20th in DFG% and 19th in rebounding. Their defense and rebounding need to improve to match their 2020 run to the Western Conference Finals, but they have more than enough firepower for an 8th-seeded team.

Denver in 6

Los Angeles Lakers @ Memphis Grizzlies

The Lakers excel when LeBron James and Anthony Davis attack the paint on offense and dominate on defense in the paint. They could win two games if they maintain this strategy, but it's difficult to imagine them outplaying the Grizzlies four times in seven games.

The Grizzlies have been better and more consistent than the Lakers this season. They led the league in DFG% and ranked 2nd in rebounding. Morant is electrifying (26.2 ppg, 8.1 apg, and 5.9 rpg), supported by two other players averaging over 18 points (Bane with 21.5 ppg and Jackson Jr with 18.6 ppg). Jackson is a DPOY candidate, but he often finds himself in foul trouble.

Although the Grizzlies are missing two of their bigs (Adams and Clarke), which will hurt them on the boards, they possess enough talent and depth to defeat the Lakers.

Memphis in 6

Golden State Warriors @ Sacramento Kings

The Warriors are the defending champions, and their roster is full of players who have won multiple titles. However, the NBA Playoffs are about current performance, not past achievements. This season, the Warriors finished last in turnovers and 28th in fouls committed, meaning they are a careless team that gives extra possessions to their opponents and relies on 3-point shooting to make up the difference. This strategy isn't a championship formula unless defense is added to the equation, as was the case during their title runs. That's not the case this year.

The Kings boast a high-powered offense and a suspect defense. They finished first in scoring and second in FG%, but 25th in points allowed and 29th in DFG%. They don't have the statistical profile of a championship team, but the Warriors have a similar profile and struggle on the road, needing to win at least one road game to eliminate the Kings. However, the Kings are already an excellent road team with a 25-16 record, so there's a chance they'll win a game in Golden State, raising the stakes.

While the Warriors could suddenly put everything together, play elite defense, and win the 2023 title, they've shown their true colors throughout the regular season.

Sacramento in 6

Los Angeles Clippers @ Phoenix Suns

The Clippers had championship aspirations with their dynamic duo, George and Leonard, but injuries and load management led to them missing many games. Now, with George injured and not cleared to return, it's almost impossible to see the Clippers extending this series to 7 without him, much less winning it.

Westbrook played decently for the Clippers (15.8 ppg, 7.6 apg, and 4.9 rpg in 21 games) and shot reasonably well (.498 FG%, .356 from 3), evidence he's not washed up or unable to score efficiently. But if the Clippers want to win this series, they need to unleash the old Westbrook (20-plus ppg, 8 rpg, 8 apg) and get them going in transition. Leonard is one of the few players in the league who can go head-to-head against Durant and not come up short.

Before the trade, the Suns were headed for an early playoff loss. Durant is one of the few legitimate franchise players – he's an elite 3-level scorer who also rebounds, passes, and defends well. It will be challenging for anyone to design a defense to slow him down while dealing with Booker and Ayton. Paul may be older and slower, and injury-prone, but he's still a solid playmaker and mid-range shooter. Their biggest issue is health and continuity. If their main players stay healthy – no easy feat given their injury history – and they play solid defense under playoff pressure, they will embark on a deep playoff run.

Phoenix in 6