Making ****around 3ptrs way after the whistle, sometimes u see players do

[MoBe1Kanobi]

Do you think making uncounted meaningless 3's way after the refs blow the whistle effect a players likeliness of shot making later?

So basically I've been arguing with my fellow Kings fans for weeks in different game threads over my personal basketball philosophy which is the idea that making mess around throw up 3's post whistle actually make it a bit more likely to miss one of your next 3's, especially if you're already on a streak...

To me, it's pretty obvious, making a shot that doesn't count is still a made FG, and players have a finite number in them to a degree of how many field goals they're typically capable of making during a game against a defense.. not just that, but your percentages will even out over the long run.. so yes, here's an example, say a 35% 3pt shooter on TeamA makes a 3ptr but the ref blows the whistle pretty early for some clock malfunction or something, if you guys run the same play and get the shooter the same exact look, do you believe he now has the same chance of repeating that action and make? No, I believe defensive awareness from the other team mixed with fatigue, mixed with the difficulty in repeating a skill that isnt a simple coin flip... I believe all those factors amongst others make it obvious that making uncounted shots is never a good thing and hurts you in the long run during a game.

[SouBeachTalents]

I've legit always thought the same exact way about this :lol We'd really need someone to track this, like how well a player shot on his next 5 3's after making one after the whistle.

[ShawkFactory]

To me each individual instance within a set of events has no affect on the other. Every shot a guy takes has a certain probability of going in, with specific factors influencing that probability (fatigue, set up, defense, distance of shot, etc.). The chance of a fvckaround shot going in has a difference chance than a regular one with the defense playing, and they don't affect each other.

Over a large sample size I think you'd see that there's no correlation.

[AlternativeAcc.]

To me each individual instance within a set of events has no affect on the other. Every shot a guy takes has a certain probability of going in, with specific factors influencing that probability (fatigue, set up, defense, distance of shot, etc.). The chance of a fvckaround shot going in has a difference chance than a regular one with the defense playing, and they don't affect each other.

Over a large sample size I think you'd see that there's no correlation.
I think there's an obvious psychological element you're disregarding

Every athlete knows that one or two made shots affects confidence. Just like one hit in baseball. It absolutely has an affect.

As far as a shot that doesn't count going in, it's probably a lesser affect for a pro but there's some element of psychological benefit going on. To what degree if impossible to know obviously. There's a reason guys block shots even when they know they don't count. They know there's a psychological benefit to a player watching a ball go thru the hoop.

[tpols]

There's a reason defensive players snatch the ball out the air in these situations a lot of the time. Seeing the ball swish through the net gives forward momentum and confidence going forward. Same way announcers will comment on a guy getting to the FT line is getting himself in rhythm by seeing the ball go through the net.

[ShawkFactory]

I think there's an obvious psychological element you're disregarding

Every athlete knows that one or two made shots affects confidence. Just like one hit in baseball. It absolutely has an affect.

As far as a shot that doesn't count going in, it's probably a lesser affect for a pro but there's some element of psychological benefit going on. To what degree if impossible to know obviously.

I think a certain degree of the psychological effect causes the factors to increase probability to sway. For example if someone is really feeling themselves they might do certain things to create higher percentage looks within their own skillset, such as playing with more energy and tightening up footwork.

But even still, a lot of the psychological part of this comes from the streak itself. A 45% shooter is inevitably going to have a run where they make 7 in a row, and the confidence gained from the pure probability streak may not even have an effect in the moment. It could just feel better.

Same in baseball. When you're cold it feels like you have no idea what you're doing and vice versa when you're hot but really it could just be the random variations of what you're capable of within your own skillset. The best hitters in baseball don't change things during a slump. Just ride out the wave and things will turn around.

[AlternativeAcc.]

I think a certain degree of the psychological effect causes the factors to increase probability to sway. For example if someone is really feeling themselves they might do certain things to create higher percentage looks within their own skillset, such as playing with more energy and tightening up footwork.

But even still, a lot of the psychological part of this comes from the streak itself. A 45% shooter is inevitably going to have a run where they make 7 in a row, and the confidence gained from the pure probability streak may not even have an effect in the moment. It could just feel better.

Same in baseball. When you're cold it feels like you have no idea what you're doing and vice versa when you're hot but really it could just be the random variations of what you're capable of within your own skillset. The best hitters in baseball don't change things during a slump. Just ride out the wave and things will turn around.

Nah I believe you're severely underplaying the confidence thing especially in basketball. Butler is a good recent example of a guy getting into the ultra confident flow state during important moments. I've been in those moments and shooting with supreme confidence makes the likelihood of making go way up. I don't think its a mechanical thing primarily, it's a visual and mental acuity thing where you instinctually time up everything perfectly regardless of body position. It's extreme heightened focus and making a shot helps unlock that ability. Baseball isn't the best example because luck plays more of a factor. But just getting a lucky hit makes you less anxious the next go around and improves your chances in my experience

[ShawkFactory]

Nah I believe you're severely underplaying the confidence thing especially in basketball. Butler is a good recent example of a guy getting into the ultra confident flow state during important moments. I've been in those moments and shooting with supreme confidence makes the likelihood of making go way up. I don't think its a mechanical thing primarily, it's a visual and mental acuity thing where you instinctually time up everything perfectly regardless of body position. It's extreme heightened focus and making a shot helps unlock that ability. Baseball isn't the best example because luck plays more of a factor. But just getting a lucky hit makes you less anxious the next go around and improves your chances in my experience

I honestly don't disagree with any of this, and I think both angles can be true. Essentially what I was saying is that the factors involved in increasing probability are vast and at the same time minute. The aspect of reaction time and mental acuity involved with increased confidence is huge though for sure.

It seems like what OP is saying though is that if you give a 40% shooter 5 shoots and he makes the first one, then he should only make one more. Which isn't the case. Seeing a fvckaround shot go in in is a good thing, not bad.

[AlternativeAcc.]

I honestly don't disagree with any of this, and I think both angles can be true. Essentially what I was saying is that the factors involved in increasing probability are vast and at the same time minute. The aspect of reaction time and mental acuity involved with increased confidence is huge though for sure.

It seems like what OP is saying though is that if you give a 40% shooter 5 shoots and he makes the first one, then he should only make one more. Which isn't the case. Seeing a fvckaround shot go in in is a good thing, not bad.

Honestly didn't even read the OP, I assumed he was saying it's a good thing if you make it and increases your chances of making the next.

But yeah I disagree with what he said. I think it helps too

[iamgine]

Do you think making uncounted meaningless 3's way after the refs blow the whistle effect a players likeliness of shot making later?

So basically I've been arguing with my fellow Kings fans for weeks in different game threads over my personal basketball philosophy which is the idea that making mess around throw up 3's post whistle actually make it a bit more likely to miss one of your next 3's, especially if you're already on a streak...

To me, it's pretty obvious, making a shot that doesn't count is still a made FG, and players have a finite number in them to a degree of how many field goals they're typically capable of making during a game against a defense.. not just that, but your percentages will even out over the long run.. so yes, here's an example, say a 35% 3pt shooter on TeamA makes a 3ptr but the ref blows the whistle pretty early for some clock malfunction or something, if you guys run the same play and get the shooter the same exact look, do you believe he now has the same chance of repeating that action and make? No, I believe defensive awareness from the other team mixed with fatigue, mixed with the difficulty in repeating a skill that isnt a simple coin flip... I believe all those factors amongst others make it obvious that making uncounted shots is never a good thing and hurts you in the long run during a game.

Well making a shot helps someone gets or stay in a rhythm. It also puts fear in the defense which in turn makes them guard you closer which frees you more for a drive.

Those could help mitigate the negative effects.