Im Still Ballin
06-03-2023, 03:01 PM
Kevin Garnett and Dwight Howard were two of the most dominant NBA big men in the 21st century. Both found initial success on the teams that drafted them, then left for greener pastures. It obviously worked out better for The Big Ticket.
But who was the better player during the best years on their first teams? Dwight in Orlando, or Kevin in Minnesota? I imagine most people would pick Garnett without a seconds thought, but I'm not so sure. There's a discrepancy regarding team success, supporting casts, and individual performance that I can't shake.
Team Performance
Both Minnesota and Orlando were winning teams, but the advantage has to go to The Magic. They won more games, had a better SRS, and had more postseason success - even accounting for opponent strength/conference. Minnesota never beat a team like 2009 Cleveland. 2004 Sacramento and 2009 Boston feel similarly strong.
Team Performance
Minnesota 1999-2000:
- 50-32 W/L (Expected W/L = 48-34 [10th out of 29])
- 2.67 SRS (9th out of 29)
- Terrell Brandon missed 11 games
Minnesota 2000-2001:
- 47-35 W/L (Expected W/L = 45-37 [15th out of 29])
- 1.81 SRS (12th out of 29)
Minnesota 2001-2002:
- 50-32 W/L (Expected W/L = 51-31 [6th out of 29])
- 3.58 SRS (6th out of 29)
- Terrell Brandon retired - missed 50 games
Minnesota 2002-2003:
- 51-32 W/L (Expected W/L = 47-35 [12th out of 29])
- 2.46 SRS (10th out of 29)
- Wally missed 30 games
Minnesota 2003-2004:
- 58-24 W/L (Expected W/L = 57-25 [4th out of 29])
- 5.86 SRS (2nd out of 29)
- Wally missed 54 games
Orlando 2007-2008:
- 52-30 W/L (Expected W/L = 56-26 [6th out of 30])
- 4.79 SRS (9th out of 30)
- Jameer missed 13 games
Orlando 2008-2009:
- 59-23 W/L (Expected W/L = 59-23 [4th out of 30])
- 6.48 SRS (4th out of 30)
- Jameer missed 40 games
Orlando 2009-2010:
- 59-23 W/L (Expected W/L = 61-21 [1st out of 30])
- 7.12 SRS (1st out of 30)
- Jameer missed 17 games
- Rashard missed 10 games
Orlando 2010-2011:
- 52-30 W/L (Expected W/L = 56-26 [5th out of 30])
- 4.92 SRS (5th out of 30)
- Rashard and Carter traded for Hedo and Arenas
Supporting Casts
Most would explain this by pointing to the supporting casts. I look at the names that each player had to work with. And you know what? I'm not seeing a definitive advantage for Dwight. Looks like a wash to me.
All-Star selections aren't the best measure of supporting casts, but both had two teammates make the team. Three if you include early seasons, but they were both too young for it to matter here.
Here's a quick rundown of teammates:
Notable Supporting Cast
Dwight:
- Jameer Nelson
- Hedo Turkoglu
- Rashard Lewis
- Vince Carter
- Gilbert Arenas
- JJ Reddick
Kevin:
- Stephon Marbury
- Terrell Brandon
- Chauncey Billups
- Wally Szczerbiak
- Sam Cassell
- Latrell Sprewell
- Fred Hoiberg
Is there really enough of a difference in support to explain the team performance results? Remember: SRS accounts for strength of schedule and opponent quality. Orlando was quite clearly the superior team over Kevin and Dwight's best years.
System and Coaching
If the explanation isn't supporting casts, then it's usually coaching and system. But once again, I don't feel strongly about this. Flip Saunders and Stan Van Gundy were both capable offensive-minded coaches. Their game plans were similar and yet different at the same time.
Both teams were constructed with the idea of surrounding a dominant defender with offensively-slanted talent. That's what's similar. What was different was the approach to offense. Orlando surrounded a dominant paint scorer with three-point shooters. Minnesota used the mid-range to open up shots in the paint and beyond the arc.
Both systems were built around their star big men and yet one gets more credit for that than the other. It's usually the on-off net rating that people usually point to, but we know how lineups can influence it. Not to mention roster construction as well.
I think there are limitations when building around Garnett. So his play-by-play data looked herculean, but I'm not sure it would've held with a stronger bench. Mookie Blaylock and Nate McMillan looked like top 10 players in the '90s according to on-off net rating.
Dwight was so integral to that Orlando team. Take him out and neither the defense nor the offense functioned. The three-point shooting only worked because they had the best paint scorer in the league. Not to mention they could only play all those offensive-slanted players because Dwight protected them defensively.
Orlando kept trucking along, regardless of who was on the team or was healthy and playing. Jameer went down halfway through the '08-'09 season and The Magic didn't miss a beat. Went 27-12 and won three playoff series. Hedo left the team and they won just as many games in '09-'10, had a better SRS, and W/L% including the postseason. Rashard and Vince got traded in '10-'11 and the team's win pace very slightly improved.
All of these supposed "core" pieces and yet they continued to perform to a high degree without them. Hell, Dwight had the team winning at a 50-win pace during the lockout-shortened '11-'12 season. No Rashard, regressed Jameer, Ryan Anderson, and an old Hedo who was basically finished as a player.
Individual Performance
Both Dwight and Kevin played great individually and won a lot of accolades and awards. Very different players though. Garnett was a protomodern big that liked to pass and shoot from the elbows. Howard was a classic hyper-athletic bruiser who was at his best establishing deep position down low.
One was averse to physicality; the other couldn't shoot a lick.
Here's a look at their numbers from those aforementioned seasons:
*HEAVES REMOVED*
Kevin Garnet '00-'04 Regular Season:
- 407 games
- 22.7 ppg, 12.5 rpg, 5.2 apg, 1.4 spg, 1.7 bpg, 2.9 topg
- 49.0% FG, 77.4% FT, 54.3% TS, 27.3% usage rate
Kevin Garnett '00-'04 Playoffs:
- 35 games
- 23.7 ppg, 14.4 rpg, 5.4 apg, 1.4 spg, 1.9 bpg, 3.5 topg
- 46.0% FG, 75.9% FT, 51.85% TS, 28.7% usage rate
Dwight Howard '08-'11 Regular Season:
- 321 games
- 20.6 ppg, 13.8 rpg, 1.5 apg, 1.0 spg, 2.6 bpg, 3.3 topg
- 59.5% FG, 59.3% FT, 61.75% TS, 25.4% usage rate
Dwight Howard '08-'11 Playoffs:
- 53 games
- 20.2 ppg, 14.3 rpg, 1.4 apg, 0.8 spg, 2.9 bpg, 3.5 topg
- 60.6% FG, 59.6% FT, 62.6% TS, 24.2% usage rate
It's hard to compare them because they're such different players. Garnett's strengths are his mobility, shooting, and passing. Howard's strengths are his physicality, finishing, and foul pressure. Dominant defenders in slightly different ways; integral offensive pieces in completely unique avenues.
And I do think Dwight's foul pressure should be emphasized. He drew the most fouls in NBA history I believe. Even relative to his usage/field goal attempts and free throws. An extreme outlier in this regard. He was getting fouled because he was either:
- Too close to the hoop with the ball
- Making a move to the hoop (post seals, duck-ins, alley-oops, offensive rebounds)
- Hack-a-Dwight strategy
I wonder about the value of this foul pressure outside of going to the line himself. He put specific players in foul trouble so that they would play fewer minutes and not play as hard on both ends. He would get his team into the bonus, influencing how the opponent would play on defense and even offense. I'm sure this impact radiated into all lineups, even ones without him.
But who was the better player during the best years on their first teams? Dwight in Orlando, or Kevin in Minnesota? I imagine most people would pick Garnett without a seconds thought, but I'm not so sure. There's a discrepancy regarding team success, supporting casts, and individual performance that I can't shake.
Team Performance
Both Minnesota and Orlando were winning teams, but the advantage has to go to The Magic. They won more games, had a better SRS, and had more postseason success - even accounting for opponent strength/conference. Minnesota never beat a team like 2009 Cleveland. 2004 Sacramento and 2009 Boston feel similarly strong.
Team Performance
Minnesota 1999-2000:
- 50-32 W/L (Expected W/L = 48-34 [10th out of 29])
- 2.67 SRS (9th out of 29)
- Terrell Brandon missed 11 games
Minnesota 2000-2001:
- 47-35 W/L (Expected W/L = 45-37 [15th out of 29])
- 1.81 SRS (12th out of 29)
Minnesota 2001-2002:
- 50-32 W/L (Expected W/L = 51-31 [6th out of 29])
- 3.58 SRS (6th out of 29)
- Terrell Brandon retired - missed 50 games
Minnesota 2002-2003:
- 51-32 W/L (Expected W/L = 47-35 [12th out of 29])
- 2.46 SRS (10th out of 29)
- Wally missed 30 games
Minnesota 2003-2004:
- 58-24 W/L (Expected W/L = 57-25 [4th out of 29])
- 5.86 SRS (2nd out of 29)
- Wally missed 54 games
Orlando 2007-2008:
- 52-30 W/L (Expected W/L = 56-26 [6th out of 30])
- 4.79 SRS (9th out of 30)
- Jameer missed 13 games
Orlando 2008-2009:
- 59-23 W/L (Expected W/L = 59-23 [4th out of 30])
- 6.48 SRS (4th out of 30)
- Jameer missed 40 games
Orlando 2009-2010:
- 59-23 W/L (Expected W/L = 61-21 [1st out of 30])
- 7.12 SRS (1st out of 30)
- Jameer missed 17 games
- Rashard missed 10 games
Orlando 2010-2011:
- 52-30 W/L (Expected W/L = 56-26 [5th out of 30])
- 4.92 SRS (5th out of 30)
- Rashard and Carter traded for Hedo and Arenas
Supporting Casts
Most would explain this by pointing to the supporting casts. I look at the names that each player had to work with. And you know what? I'm not seeing a definitive advantage for Dwight. Looks like a wash to me.
All-Star selections aren't the best measure of supporting casts, but both had two teammates make the team. Three if you include early seasons, but they were both too young for it to matter here.
Here's a quick rundown of teammates:
Notable Supporting Cast
Dwight:
- Jameer Nelson
- Hedo Turkoglu
- Rashard Lewis
- Vince Carter
- Gilbert Arenas
- JJ Reddick
Kevin:
- Stephon Marbury
- Terrell Brandon
- Chauncey Billups
- Wally Szczerbiak
- Sam Cassell
- Latrell Sprewell
- Fred Hoiberg
Is there really enough of a difference in support to explain the team performance results? Remember: SRS accounts for strength of schedule and opponent quality. Orlando was quite clearly the superior team over Kevin and Dwight's best years.
System and Coaching
If the explanation isn't supporting casts, then it's usually coaching and system. But once again, I don't feel strongly about this. Flip Saunders and Stan Van Gundy were both capable offensive-minded coaches. Their game plans were similar and yet different at the same time.
Both teams were constructed with the idea of surrounding a dominant defender with offensively-slanted talent. That's what's similar. What was different was the approach to offense. Orlando surrounded a dominant paint scorer with three-point shooters. Minnesota used the mid-range to open up shots in the paint and beyond the arc.
Both systems were built around their star big men and yet one gets more credit for that than the other. It's usually the on-off net rating that people usually point to, but we know how lineups can influence it. Not to mention roster construction as well.
I think there are limitations when building around Garnett. So his play-by-play data looked herculean, but I'm not sure it would've held with a stronger bench. Mookie Blaylock and Nate McMillan looked like top 10 players in the '90s according to on-off net rating.
Dwight was so integral to that Orlando team. Take him out and neither the defense nor the offense functioned. The three-point shooting only worked because they had the best paint scorer in the league. Not to mention they could only play all those offensive-slanted players because Dwight protected them defensively.
Orlando kept trucking along, regardless of who was on the team or was healthy and playing. Jameer went down halfway through the '08-'09 season and The Magic didn't miss a beat. Went 27-12 and won three playoff series. Hedo left the team and they won just as many games in '09-'10, had a better SRS, and W/L% including the postseason. Rashard and Vince got traded in '10-'11 and the team's win pace very slightly improved.
All of these supposed "core" pieces and yet they continued to perform to a high degree without them. Hell, Dwight had the team winning at a 50-win pace during the lockout-shortened '11-'12 season. No Rashard, regressed Jameer, Ryan Anderson, and an old Hedo who was basically finished as a player.
Individual Performance
Both Dwight and Kevin played great individually and won a lot of accolades and awards. Very different players though. Garnett was a protomodern big that liked to pass and shoot from the elbows. Howard was a classic hyper-athletic bruiser who was at his best establishing deep position down low.
One was averse to physicality; the other couldn't shoot a lick.
Here's a look at their numbers from those aforementioned seasons:
*HEAVES REMOVED*
Kevin Garnet '00-'04 Regular Season:
- 407 games
- 22.7 ppg, 12.5 rpg, 5.2 apg, 1.4 spg, 1.7 bpg, 2.9 topg
- 49.0% FG, 77.4% FT, 54.3% TS, 27.3% usage rate
Kevin Garnett '00-'04 Playoffs:
- 35 games
- 23.7 ppg, 14.4 rpg, 5.4 apg, 1.4 spg, 1.9 bpg, 3.5 topg
- 46.0% FG, 75.9% FT, 51.85% TS, 28.7% usage rate
Dwight Howard '08-'11 Regular Season:
- 321 games
- 20.6 ppg, 13.8 rpg, 1.5 apg, 1.0 spg, 2.6 bpg, 3.3 topg
- 59.5% FG, 59.3% FT, 61.75% TS, 25.4% usage rate
Dwight Howard '08-'11 Playoffs:
- 53 games
- 20.2 ppg, 14.3 rpg, 1.4 apg, 0.8 spg, 2.9 bpg, 3.5 topg
- 60.6% FG, 59.6% FT, 62.6% TS, 24.2% usage rate
It's hard to compare them because they're such different players. Garnett's strengths are his mobility, shooting, and passing. Howard's strengths are his physicality, finishing, and foul pressure. Dominant defenders in slightly different ways; integral offensive pieces in completely unique avenues.
And I do think Dwight's foul pressure should be emphasized. He drew the most fouls in NBA history I believe. Even relative to his usage/field goal attempts and free throws. An extreme outlier in this regard. He was getting fouled because he was either:
- Too close to the hoop with the ball
- Making a move to the hoop (post seals, duck-ins, alley-oops, offensive rebounds)
- Hack-a-Dwight strategy
I wonder about the value of this foul pressure outside of going to the line himself. He put specific players in foul trouble so that they would play fewer minutes and not play as hard on both ends. He would get his team into the bonus, influencing how the opponent would play on defense and even offense. I'm sure this impact radiated into all lineups, even ones without him.