Nuggets have a 0-4 record in the playoffs when Jokic scores 40+ points

[bdonovan]

Steve Kerr on Draymond’s post-game 2 show (https://twitter.com/funakistats/status/1665660402452029441): “What Miami did tonight… they said let’s make Jokic a scorer and take away other people”

Nuggets have lost all 4 games in the playoffs when Jokic scores over 40 (https://www.statmuse.com/nba/ask/what-is-the-denver-nuggets-record-in-the-playoffs-when-djokic-scores-40-or-more-points). 3 of those 4 were this year.

Time and again I see people here thinking far too tactically about why teams win or lose. Basketball is not a game of stats. If you go there looking for the answer, usually you see outcomes, not causes.

Team play precedes individual stats, so does momentum from one side of the floor to the other. What happens when you isolate Jokic from his teammates, forcing him to score? 2 things. First, you erode team play from the Nuggets and that shows up on the defensive end in lack of Nuggets cohesion in contesting shots, leaving Miami wide open time and again.

Second, you enhance Miami's team cohesion in the work needed to isolate Jokic, specifically working together to deny the pass from Jokic to his teammates. You then see enhanced cohesion from Miami on the offensive end.

The reason NBA coaches like Kerr recognize the larger strategy of whats involved is because they are thinking big picture, unlike many of you. To you, some times teams have good shooting days, sometimes they have bad days, it's that simple! But you're not thinking of WHY that's the case, and it usually has to do with team cohesion, open vs. contested looks, ball movement and the like. Defense and offense are much more related than you think (or take a look at "cross-matchups" on Thinking Basketball).

In a media interview, Heat coach Eric Spoelstra DENIED that the Heat's strategy was to turn Jokic into a scorer. (https://twitter.com/funakistats/status/1665660402452029441) Yet his explanation made no sense. He claimed that Jokic is a great player and shouldn't be disrespected. That wasn't the question. It's clear to me that Spoelstra as a coach knows he's onto something and doesn't want to give away the game.

Expect the Heat to do the same thing in Game 3.

[ShawkFactory]

We get it, you don't like Jokic.

[tontoz]

OP doesn't understand that correlation does not equal causation.

When Joker's teammates are scoring well, like early in game 1, Joker takes fewer shots. When they are struggling he will try to carry the team by taking more shots.

Denver had an ORTG of 126 in game 2 which is elite. Joker scored 41 with a TS of 65%. That doesn't equate to good defense from the Heat.

The Heat won by shooting 17-35 from 3.

[Carbine]

OP doesn't understand that correlation does not equal causation.

When Joker's teammates are scoring well, like early in game 1, Joker takes fewer shots. When they are struggling he will try to carry the team by taking more shots.

Denver had an ORTG of 126 in game 2 which is elite. Joker scored 41 with a TS of 65%. That doesn't equate to good defense from the Heat.

The Heat won by shooting 17-35 from 3.

Exactly, Denver's offense was not a problem. It was Miami hitting 3s they normally would not, they were amongst the worst shooting team in the NBA from deep this year.

Basketball is not some complicated thing. Porter Jr missed a shot that he normally would make, Duncan made a 3 he normally would not off a dribble Iso and that's the difference in the game. Literally.

[Overdrive]

Steve Kerr on Draymond’s post-game 2 show (https://twitter.com/funakistats/status/1665660402452029441): “What Miami did tonight… they said let’s make Jokic a scorer and take away other people”

Nuggets have lost all 4 games in the playoffs when Jokic scores over 40 (https://www.statmuse.com/nba/ask/what-is-the-denver-nuggets-record-in-the-playoffs-when-djokic-scores-40-or-more-points). 3 of those 4 were this year.

Time and again I see people here thinking far too tactically about why teams win or lose. Basketball is not a game of stats. If you go there looking for the answer, usually you see outcomes, not causes.

Team play precedes individual stats, so does momentum from one side of the floor to the other. What happens when you isolate Jokic from his teammates, forcing him to score? 2 things. First, you erode team play from the Nuggets and that shows up on the defensive end in lack of Nuggets cohesion in contesting shots, leaving Miami wide open time and again.

Second, you enhance Miami's team cohesion in the work needed to isolate Jokic, specifically working together to deny the pass from Jokic to his teammates. You then see enhanced cohesion from Miami on the offensive end.

The reason NBA coaches like Kerr recognize the larger strategy of whats involved is because they are thinking big picture, unlike many of you. To you, some times teams have good shooting days, sometimes they have bad days, it's that simple! But you're not thinking of WHY that's the case, and it usually has to do with team cohesion, open vs. contested looks, ball movement and the like. Defense and offense are much more related than you think (or take a look at "cross-matchups" on Thinking Basketball).

In a media interview, Heat coach Eric Spoelstra DENIED that the Heat's strategy was to turn Jokic into a scorer. (https://twitter.com/funakistats/status/1665660402452029441) Yet his explanation made no sense. He claimed that Jokic is a great player and shouldn't be disrespected. That wasn't the question. It's clear to me that Spoelstra as a coach knows he's onto something and doesn't want to give away the game.

Expect the Heat to do the same thing in Game 3.

The illtimed switches on off ball screens killed them. Leaving shooters wide open. Yes, bringing Love and putting Butler on Murray prevented Denver from shifting the scoring load away from Jokic, but Porter missed easy buckets and gave up easy looks aswell. He hits 2 more jumpers, Denver wins.

[FultzNationRISE]

OP doesn't understand that correlation does not equal causation.

When Joker's teammates are scoring well, like early in game 1, Joker takes fewer shots. When they are struggling he will try to carry the team by taking more shots.

Denver had an ORTG of 126 in game 2 which is elite. Joker scored 41 with a TS of 65%. That doesn't equate to good defense from the Heat.

The Heat won by shooting 17-35 from 3.

This.

Also, the Nuggets now have their turn to adjust. If they see something in Miami’s scheme that they think caused them to struggle, they wont just bang their head against the wall. Theyll look to come up with new answers.

Denver is 0-4 when hes scores 40 and theyve played 4 series so far. That means basically every series included a high scoring Jokic loss.

And yet here they are with a 13-4 record. Does OP think this is the first time a team thought of this idea? Clearly it’s a lot easier said than done.

The Heat may yet pull the upset, nobody knows. Literally the only thing we can be certain of is that OP is deranged and is furiously praying to his personal God that Jokic fails simply because Jokic is white.

What a nut.

[Axe]

So? It doesn't mean that he's not the real mvp. And his team still made it to the playoffs while murray and mpj were both injured before at least.


OP doesn't understand that correlation does not equal causation.

When Joker's teammates are scoring well, like early in game 1, Joker takes fewer shots. When they are struggling he will try to carry the team by taking more shots.

Denver had an ORTG of 126 in game 2 which is elite. Joker scored 41 with a TS of 65%. That doesn't equate to good defense from the Heat.

The Heat won by shooting 17-35 from 3.
Sounds like you-know-who, uncle. ;)

[tontoz]

So? It doesn't mean that he's not the real mvp. And his team still made it to the playoffs while murray and mpj were both injured before at least.


Sounds like you-know-who, uncle. ;)


I already saw you bring up your daddy's name in the thread about OP saying he might be Billy Donovan. You are obviously dying to do it again you just can't help yourself. :oldlol:

[Axe]

So? I mean it was just an honest observation, after all. Judging by how he still wanted the warriors to win badly before.

[tontoz]

So? I mean it was just an honest observation, after all. Judging by how he still wanted the warriors to win badly before.

Doesn't matter what the thread is about. Your daddy is always on your mind so you are always looking for a reason to bring him up.

[Axe]

Rofl seething. :roll:

[tontoz]

Rofl seething. :roll:


Can't you at least come up with a word other than what RRR3 always uses? :facepalm

[Duffy Pratt]

If KCP hadn’t made two bone-headed fouls on three point shots, no-one would be talking about Spolstra’s genius today. It was a close game. Denver came out flat. Miami was on fire from outside. Miami solved their mismatch problem by playing Love, which also allowed Butler to switch to Murray. There was a horrendous non-call on a goal tending. Porter has turned into a liability, which could change on a dime.

With almost every chance factor going in Miami’s direction, they barely managed to eke out the win. Maybe they can do that three more times. If they do, they definitely will have deserved the win. But remember, if Denver comes out and tears them apart in Miami, everyone who can only see the results of the latest game will again do a 180 degree switch on their opinions, while insisting that they’ve always been right all along. Sports commentary is so awful.

[RRR3]

Can't you at least come up with a word other than what RRR3 always uses? :facepalm
Rent free

[Heat_chips]

Exactly, Denver's offense was not a problem. It was Miami hitting 3s they normally would not,.

Wut? The Heat shot better in multiple games vs Boston in the playoffs (more makes and more attempts in those games), and in games vs the Bucks. Look up the game logs. This is totally normal for the Heat.

And like i said in another thread,

The Heat were the #1 three point shooting team last season with the same roster. just replace PJ tucker for Kevin Love. its the same team. Not a fluke whatsoever when you've been the best at it over the course of an entire recent season. The Golden state Warriors won 4 titles by shooting great from 3 and playing great defense, and playing smart disciplined basketball. Just like the Heat. The Heat are just like that

[Heat_chips]

If KCP hadn’t made two bone-headed fouls on three point shots, no-one would be talking about Spolstra’s genius today. .

And if Cody Zeller wasn't a -14 in 8 minutes last night and replaced him with someone else the Heat blow them out. And if the Heat shot atr their normal rate in game one where they had a whopping 36 wide open looks according to nba analytics, the Heat are up 2-0 in the series.

[Heat_chips]

This.

Also, the Nuggets now have their turn to adjust. If they see something in Miami’s scheme that they think caused them to struggle, they wont just bang their head against the wall. Theyll look to come up with new answers.

Denver is 0-4 when hes scores 40 and theyve played 4 series so far. That means basically every series included a high scoring Jokic loss.

And yet here they are with a 13-4 record. Does OP think this is the first time a team thought of this idea? Clearly it’s a lot easier said than done.

.

the chicken mcnuggets record is heavily inflated because they played nobody. they played a suns team that plays ZERO defense and had no cohesiveness whatsoever. then they played 2 playin teams, they played a timberwolves team that stinks on defense and an extremely overrated lakers team with a 40 year old lebron and a broken down passive AD that looked nothing like he did in the bubble.

And none of those 3 teams are good 3 point shooting teams !!!

the nuggets cruised to the easiest finals path anyone can remember,, but as soon as they face a very good defense like miami they are limited to just 106 points per game at home with a huge rest advantage. The bucks and celtics would wipe the floor on the nuggets in 6 or less. The east plays defense

[ILLsmak]

They shud just let him get 50. The nugs I mean. He’s got it. I understand as a passing player, too, that it’s weird cuz u are aggressive and at some point u expect the defense to give u lanes to pass. But nothing is stopping dude from getting 50.

That’s the logical solution. Can’t win scoring 40? Get 50!

-Smak

[Heat_chips]

They shud just let him get 50. The nugs I mean. He’s got it. I understand as a passing player, too, that it’s weird cuz u are aggressive and at some point u expect the defense to give u lanes to pass. But nothing is stopping dude from getting 50.

That’s the logical solution. Can’t win scoring 40? Get 50!

-Smak

nba analytics shows when Bam was guarding Jokic last night, Jokic was 7 for 15 (46%) with 2 turnovers, just one assist, and a Bam block on the low post.

[ImKobe]

OP doesn't understand that correlation does not equal causation.

When Joker's teammates are scoring well, like early in game 1, Joker takes fewer shots. When they are struggling he will try to carry the team by taking more shots.

Denver had an ORTG of 126 in game 2 which is elite. Joker scored 41 with a TS of 65%. That doesn't equate to good defense from the Heat.

The Heat won by shooting 17-35 from 3.

Nah it's because his guys are more open when the defense is overhelping/doubling him all the time so he doesn't have to score himself.
He wants to get others involved first.
Look at the difference in his shot attempts in the first half in G1 vs G2. In G1 he didn't record a FGA (he only had the 2 FTs early in the game) until the last seconds in the 1st Q.
In Game 2 he had 9 FGA just in the 1st Q alone, and it wasn't some cheap 3-4 offensive rebounds off him tapping the ball at the rim to pad his rebounding numbers either.
It was definitely due to how Miami guarded the Nuggets in G2 and it was obvious to anyone watching it.

Does it mean the strategy works every single game? Of course not.
It's definitely something they will need to do more as the series goes on though, as it ruins the flow of the Nuggets' offense and puts more pressure on Jokic to be a consistent high-volume scorer.


This.

Also, the Nuggets now have their turn to adjust. If they see something in Miami’s scheme that they think caused them to struggle, they wont just bang their head against the wall. Theyll look to come up with new answers.

Denver is 0-4 when hes scores 40 and theyve played 4 series so far. That means basically every series included a high scoring Jokic loss.

And yet here they are with a 13-4 record. Does OP think this is the first time a team thought of this idea? Clearly it’s a lot easier said than done.

The Heat may yet pull the upset, nobody knows. Literally the only thing we can be certain of is that OP is deranged and is furiously praying to his personal God that Jokic fails simply because Jokic is white.

What a nut.

No one else plays the zone like the Heat does. It's a matter of having the right coaching & personnel. It takes a lot of discipline and experience to be able to pull this shit off. Heat are just built for doing it, but the Nuggets are obviously smart enough to counter it by putting him in the middle of the zone and generating looks out of it, plus if you can't take care of the ball and you're missing shots offensively they're going to kill most teams in transition as well before the defense can get set, and you have to be able to box out and not get killed on the glass either. There's a lot that goes into it beyond just leaving him in single coverage ofc. Heat did a great job slowing the pace down.

[warriorfan]

Nah it's because his guys are more open when the defense is overhelping/doubling him all the time so he doesn't have to score himself.
He wants to get others involved first.
Look at the difference in his shot attempts in the first half in G1 vs G2. In G1 he didn't record a FGA (he only had the 2 FTs early in the game) until the last seconds in the 1st Q.
In Game 2 he had 9 FGA just in the 1st Q alone, and it wasn't some cheap 3-4 offensive rebounds off him tapping the ball at the rim to pad his rebounding numbers either.
It was definitely due to how Miami guarded the Nuggets in G2 and it was obvious to anyone watching it.

Does it mean the strategy works every single game? Of course not.
It's definitely something they will need to do more as the series goes on though, as it ruins the flow of the Nuggets' offense and puts more pressure on Jokic to be a consistent high-volume scorer.



No one else plays the zone like the Heat does. It's a matter of having the right coaching & personnel. It takes a lot of discipline and experience to be able to pull this shit off. Heat are just built for doing it, but the Nuggets are obviously smart enough to counter it by putting him in the middle of the zone and generating looks out of it, plus if you can't take care of the ball and you're missing shots offensively they're going to kill most teams in transition as well before the defense can get set, and you have to be able to box out and not get killed on the glass either. There's a lot that goes into it beyond just leaving him in single coverage ofc. Heat did a great job slowing the pace down.

Yes. Jokic does the same thing Curry does. They both will almost make a point not to look for shots early in the game in favor of trying to get everyone else involved and in rhythm. Once a few guys get going and are feeling it they will start to assert themselves more in a scoring role. They both know they can pretty much turn it on at any time. They get everyone else fed well then are ready to take over the game down the stretch for the knock out blow.


This is pretty much the opposite of Lebron where he races to 30 points as fast as possible and then lets off the gas at the end of the game after he got his, then gets to shift blame on a role player who he hot potato’s the ball to in the final moments after they havnt even shot the ball very much all game.

[Duffy Pratt]

Here are the heats 3pt % in the playoffs so far,

Bucks - 60, 44, 49, 40, 38
Knicks - 33, 35, 22, 33, 30, 31
Celtics - 52, 34, 54, 25, 39, 47, 50.
Nuggets, 33, 49

They’ve shot over 40% 8 of their 20 games. And they went 6-2 in those. But shooting that well only got them a 3 point win against the Nuggets. For the post season, they are shooting 39%, but the variance has been very wide. If they need 49% to beat the Nuggets by three, it’s highly unlikely they will pull out three more wins. Of course it’s possible, and maybe they will figure out other ways to attack the Nuggets.

That said, it’s not decidedly not ‘normal’ for any team to shoot 45 percent on volume for an entire series, as they did against the Bucks, or 43% as they did against the Celtics. We are very much witnessing a series where a team will live or die by the three. Chances have always been against that (but maybe the Heat’s undrafted players really are as elite shooters as Curry and Thomson and Durant)

[Heat_chips]

Here are the heats 3pt % in the playoffs so far,

Bucks - 60, 44, 49, 40, 38
Knicks - 33, 35, 22, 33, 30, 31
Celtics - 52, 34, 54, 25, 39, 47, 50.
Nuggets, 33, 49

They’ve shot over 40% 8 of their 20 games. And they went 6-2 in those. But shooting that well only got them a 3 point win against the Nuggets. For the post season, they are shooting 39%, but the variance has been very wide. If they need 49% to beat the Nuggets by three, it’s highly unlikely they will pull out three more wins. Of course it’s possible, and maybe they will figure out other ways to attack the Nuggets.

That said, it’s not decidedly not ‘normal’ for any team to shoot 45 percent on volume for an entire series, as they did against the Bucks, or 43% as they did against the Celtics. We are very much witnessing a series where a team will live or die by the three. Chances have always been against that (but maybe the Heat’s undrafted players really are as elite shooters as Curry and Thomson and Durant)

It's so much more than that. Do you see HOW the Heat are creating and moving to create those wide open shots? It's so dynamic that you'd be surprised if they missed !!

Nba analytics had the Heat with 57 wide open looks in game 1 and 2 Combined !! That is 19 more wide open looks than any 2 game stretch in the playoffs as their next highest total was 38 .. The Nuggets defense stinks, the nuggets are not the Bucks and celtics defenses, nowhere near.

I love the Heat's chances and I said after game one I wasnt worried because we had so many wide open shots even in the paint down low !! We never had so many wide open shots against the Bucks and Celtics, eveything was hard to create but against the Nuggets it's so much easier. We didn't make them in game one because we had no legs with the lack of rest after a grueling 7 game series vs Boston.

And this is a list of top 10 shooting nights in the playoffs for all teams:

1. Miami
2. Miami
3. Miami
4. Miami
5. Milwaukee
6. Golden State
7. Miami (last night vs nuggets)
8. Philadelphia
9. Phoenix
10. Miami

[Heat_chips]

That said, it’s not decidedly not ‘normal’ for any team to shoot 45 percent on volume for an entire series, as they did against the Bucks, or 43% as they did against the Celtics. We are very much witnessing a series where a team will live or die by the three. Chances have always been against that (but maybe the Heat’s undrafted players really are as elite shooters as Curry and Thomson and Durant)

Why is it okay for Golden State to win 4 titles and to be crowned a "Dynasty team" by living and dying by the 3 , playing great defense, with very smart disciplined play....

Why Can't the Heat do the same for one title this year ??

You do know that the Heat led ALL NBA teams in 3 point shooting last year, when they were the #1 seed, right ?? And with the same exact roster except for switching PJ Tucker for Kevin Love at PF.

[Heat_chips]

Here are the heats 3pt % in the playoffs so far,

Bucks - 60, 44, 49, 40, 38
Knicks - 33, 35, 22, 33, 30, 31
Celtics - 52, 34, 54, 25, 39, 47, 50.
Nuggets, 33, 49

They’ve shot over 40% 8 of their 20 games. And they went 6-2 in those. But shooting that well only got them a 3 point win against the Nuggets. For the post season, they are shooting 39%, but the variance has been very wide.


What's funny is we would be talking about a Heat REPEAT run this year if they just hit one more shot in the conference finals last year. Because Miami matches up GREAT against an older Golden State team and would've won the title last year.

You'd all be viewing things differently right now if the Heat just made one more shot in the final seconds of game 7 of the ECF last year.

[Heat_chips]

Nah it's because his guys are more open when the defense is overhelping/doubling him all the time so he doesn't have to score himself.
He wants to get others involved first..

That is very true. Jokic is a team player by nature and it kills him to be selfish having to score all the time. We saw last night how he was flustered and frustrated he couldnt play the way he wanted to. His expressions in the 2nd half said it all. And that's what the Heat do best is they take away what you do best.

Rasheed Wallace said: " What makes the Heat so great is they take away what you do best then make you play to their control of the game."

You saw last night how the Heat targeted Murray playing Butler on him for 35 possessions compared to just 4 possessions Butler was on him in game one. They also blitzed Murray with traps. The Heat have been great at stifling and rattling top guards on teams through the playoffs. They made Jaylen Brown look like straight poo all series long. Brown shot way below his 49% season averages. And Jrue Holiday shot 36% or worse in 3 of the 5 games against the Heat in the Bucks series. The Heat are targetting Murray into mistakes and just playing Jokic one on one. And it's genius

Starting Kevin Love to stop Aaron Gordon's cutting and backdoor cuts allowed the Heat to go with Butler against Murray and making Murray's life hell. Murray was poor last night, and REALLY bad on defense, especially in the 4th quarter where the Butler defense took a toll on murray and murray himself couldnt get the energy to play defense. The Heat run in the 4th was a lot to do with Murray's poor defense and lack of awareness

Everyone in the media is thinking about Jokic but the Heat really want to rattle Jamal Murray and get in his head for the whole series, like they did to Jaylen Brown

[Duffy Pratt]

They were third last year. And quite a bit worse this year. And they are shooting about 4% better in the playoffs this year than they did in the regular season last year.

Of course, they can win it this year with phenomenal shooting. But are you really trying to say that their shooters are comparable to Curry, Thompson and Durant? The probability is that their shooting will fall off. That doesn’t make it a certainty. Five games left. If they put up 50+% from three in three of those games, they will probably win. If they put up 40% or less in three of the games, they will probably lose.

[Heat_chips]

They were third last year. And quite a bit worse this year. And they are shooting about 4% better in the playoffs this year than they did in the regular season last year.

Of course, they can win it this year with phenomenal shooting. But are you really trying to say that their shooters are comparable to Curry, Thompson and Durant? The probability is that their shooting will fall off. That doesn’t make it a certainty. Five games left. If they put up 50+% from three in three of those games, they will probably win. If they put up 40% or less in three of the games, they will probably lose.

i hope malone makes adjustments to take his players out of the paint to defend the 3 because we will have wide open lanes to drive for easy buckets and getting the nuggets into foul trouble. their lumbering bigmen wont be able to handle it. we have drivers who can all dribble well to the hoop for quickies and/or drive on a pass/cut - Gabe Vincent was beastly at it vs the celtics, jimmy, Martin, Robinson, bam, herro if he returns, lowry, strus heck the whole team

[MrFonzworth]

nba analytics shows when Bam was guarding Jokic last night, Jokic was 7 for 15 (46%) with 2 turnovers, just one assist, and a Bam block on the low post.

Analytics show you're going to hang yourself if you don't ease up on the amphetamines

[Heat_chips]

Why do the Heat have to shoot 50% from 3 for 3 games ? The Heat beat the Bucks in games 4 and 5 shooting 40% and 37.8%

[Axe]

Analytics show you're going to hang yourself if you don't ease up on the amphetamines
:yaohappy:

[Heat_chips]

Analytics show you're going to hang yourself if you don't ease up on the amphetamines

The analytics show that you don't watch the games. Jokic had 15 points on cody zeller alone in 8 minutes. the heat dont play bam on jokic for the whole game is the point as we play various defenses in one possession a lot of the time, and another point is Bam is the best big defender (and most versatile defender can guard 1 through 5) in the league and has done a good job on jokic this series when manning up

Case in point - You will not find a better defensive tandem for the Murray/Jokic pick and roll than Bam and Butler.

And you can look it up yourself as its all over twitter for 24 hours now. When Bam was guarding Jokic last night, Jokic was 7 for 15 (46%) with 2 turnovers, just one assist, and a Bam block on jokic in the low post.

[tontoz]

Nah it's because his guys are more open when the defense is overhelping/doubling him all the time so he doesn't have to score himself.
He wants to get others involved first.
Look at the difference in his shot attempts in the first half in G1 vs G2. In G1 he didn't record a FGA (he only had the 2 FTs early in the game) until the last seconds in the 1st Q.
In Game 2 he had 9 FGA just in the 1st Q alone, and it wasn't some cheap 3-4 offensive rebounds off him tapping the ball at the rim to pad his rebounding numbers either.
It was definitely due to how Miami guarded the Nuggets in G2 and it was obvious to anyone watching it.

Does it mean the strategy works every single game? Of course not.
It's definitely something they will need to do more as the series goes on though, as it ruins the flow of the Nuggets' offense and puts more pressure on Jokic to be a consistent high-volume scorer.



No one else plays the zone like the Heat does. It's a matter of having the right coaching & personnel. It takes a lot of discipline and experience to be able to pull this shit off. Heat are just built for doing it, but the Nuggets are obviously smart enough to counter it by putting him in the middle of the zone and generating looks out of it, plus if you can't take care of the ball and you're missing shots offensively they're going to kill most teams in transition as well before the defense can get set, and you have to be able to box out and not get killed on the glass either. There's a lot that goes into it beyond just leaving him in single coverage ofc. Heat did a great job slowing the pace down.



A lot of nonsense here. Denver had an ORTG of 124 for the game (compared to 112 in game 1) and people are acting like the Heat defended them well :facepalm

Denver was up 8 after 3 quarters. The Heat hit a barrage of 3s to start the 4th and Denver had a lot of defensive breakdowns. Among other things KCP committed two fouls on 3 pt shooters. The Heat had a 5 pt possession. A lot of loose balls bounced directly to the Heat.

Denver lost because poor defensive execution and hot 3 pt shooting from the Heat. And still Denver had a shot to tie at the end. This "make Jokic a scorer" nonsense is low IQ. No coach wants an opposing player to drop 41 with a 65% TS :oldlol:

[SouBeachTalents]

A lot of nonsense here. Denver had an ORTG of 124 for the game (compared to 112 in game 1) and people are acting like the Heat defended them well :facepalm

Denver was up 8 after 3 quarters. The Heat hit a barrage of 3s to start the 4th and Denver had a lot of defensive breakdowns. Among other things KCP committed two fouls on 3 pt shooters. The Heat had a 5 pt possession. A lot of loose balls bounced directly to the Heat.

Denver lost because poor defensive execution and hot 3 pt shooting from the Heat. And still Denver had a shot to tie at the end. This "make Jokic a scorer" nonsense is low IQ. No coach wants an opposing player to drop 41 with a 65% TS :oldlol:
A number Kobe didn't reach a single time in 7 Finals btw.

[ImKobe]

A lot of nonsense here. Denver had an ORTG of 124 for the game (compared to 112 in game 1) and people are acting like the Heat defended them well :facepalm

Denver was up 8 after 3 quarters. The Heat hit a barrage of 3s to start the 4th and Denver had a lot of defensive breakdowns. Among other things KCP committed two fouls on 3 pt shooters. The Heat had a 5 pt possession. A lot of loose balls bounced directly to the Heat.

Denver lost because poor defensive execution and hot 3 pt shooting from the Heat. And still Denver had a shot to tie at the end. This "make Jokic a scorer" nonsense is low IQ. No coach wants an opposing player to drop 41 with a 65% TS :oldlol:

They did because they were able to slow the pace down. Nuggets made some 3s late in the 4th to almost get back into the game but they had just 93 points with 4:11 to go.

Steve Kerr agrees with my take but I guess he's low IQ as well. I mean, I'm sure they just didn't double Jokic for most of the game on accident and left him in single coverage and doubled/trapped Murray instead on accident.


https://youtu.be/AjkYBtiLcNc

watch from 15:30

Spo is obviously not going to tell his game plan to the media as the series is going on but it was obvious what they were doing as the game unfolded.

Coaches try to win the game. It doesn't matter if Jokic has 40-50 if they can at least take away the open 3s and the easy shots from Murray and co. We've seen teams do it in the past with Lebron by leaving him in single coverage.

[tontoz]

They did because they were able to slow the pace down. Nuggets made some 3s late in the 4th to almost get back into the game but they had just 93 points with 4:11 to go.

Steve Kerr agrees with my take but I guess he's low IQ as well. I mean, I'm sure they just didn't double Jokic for most of the game on accident and left him in single coverage and doubled/trapped Murray instead on accident.


https://youtu.be/AjkYBtiLcNc

watch from 15:30

Spo is obviously not going to tell his game plan to the media as the series is going on but it was obvious what they were doing as the game unfolded.

Coaches try to win the game. It doesn't matter if Jokic has 40-50 if they can at least take away the open 3s and the easy shots from Murray and co. We've seen teams do it in the past with Lebron by leaving him in single coverage.


LOL it sounds like he didnt watch the game. Did he even mention Denver's defense once? Denver didn't have Murray or MPJ when they faced the warriors last year which is kind of a big issue lol. How is his strategy from last year relevant at all to this series?

Again Denver was up 8 after 3. The Heat had barely played any zone all game, then went to it heavily in the 4th. They were denying jokic the ball so he wouldnt be able to abuse them and it threw Denver off temporarily. Not to mention the fact that they went on an 8-0 run in 70 seconds to start the 4th with Jokic on the bench.

Spo knows that if you give Denver the same look over and over they will adjust to it, as they did by the end of the 4th.

The real story of the game is that the Heat had an ORTG of 129, compared to only 110 in Game 1. Is that because they made Jokic a scorer? :roll:

[ImKobe]

LOL it sounds like he didnt watch the game. Denver didn't have Murray or MPJ when they faced the warriors last year which is kind of a big issue lol.

Again Denver was up 8 after 3. The Heat had barely played any zone all game, then went to it heavily in the 4th. They were denying jokic the ball so he wouldnt be able to abuse them and it threw Denver off temporarily.

Spo knows that if you give Denver the same look over and over they will adjust to it, as they did by the end of the 4th.

The real story of the game is that the Heat had an ORTG of 129. Is that because they made Jokic a scorer? :roll:

Cool. They were up because of that one stretch with Jokic out in the 2nd quarter where Murray & the 2nd unit dominated. Jokic was a -11 in the game even with the late charge to cut into the lead, so he was a -19 on the court at one point in the middle of the 4th.

The Heat got out to a 10 - 2 start with Denver not getting anything going offensively in the first 4 minutes, the lead grew to 11 with Miami up 21 - 10 with over 7 minutes played in the game. The 3rd quarter was ugly as **** where the Denver offense again stagnated for the most part with Jokic on the court until he got hot late in the quarter, which opened the door for a Miami comeback in the 4th where the Nuggets had 4 straight turnovers early on & went scoreless for over 3 minutes. Denver made their first FG with 7:23 to go in the 4th quarter - they had scored just 4 pts on FTs up to that point, so they had as many points as turnovers in that stretch.

The way you're telling it is that Denver didn't struggle in big stretches in this game at all and it was just a fluke win for Miami. I wouldn't be so sure of that.

[tontoz]

Cool. They were up because of that one stretch with Jokic out in the 2nd quarter where Murray & the 2nd unit dominated. Jokic was a -11 in the game even with the late charge to cut into the lead, so he was a -19 on the court at one point in the middle of the 4th.

The Heat got out to a 10 - 2 start with Denver not getting anything going offensively in the first 4 minutes, the lead grew to 11 with Miami up 21 - 10 with over 7 minutes played in the game. The 3rd quarter was ugly as **** where the Denver offense again stagnated for the most part with Jokic on the court until he got hot late in the quarter, which opened the door for a Miami comeback in the 4th where the Nuggets had 4 straight turnovers early on & went scoreless for over 3 minutes. Denver made their first FG with 7:23 to go in the 4th quarter - they had scored just 4 pts on FTs up to that point, so they had as many points as turnovers in that stretch.

The way you're telling it is that Denver didn't struggle in big stretches in this game at all and it was just a fluke win for Miami. I wouldn't be so sure of that.

That is just a lack of reading comprehension. Denver struggled on defense. They missed assignments all game and made dumb plays that Miami capitalized on.

But the idea that Miami had some type of defensive strategy that actually worked is laughable. Denver shot 59% on 2s, 39% on 3s and were 19-22 from the line. Denver's offense has been historically good in the playoffs and was better in this game. That is just a fact.

Miami going zone in the 4th after not playing it much all game might have thrown Denver off temporarily but their problem was on defense. If you let the other team have an ORTG of 129 it is pretty hard to win.

[ImKobe]

That is just a lack of reading comprehension. Denver struggled on defense. They missed assignments all game and made dumb plays that Miami capitalized on.

But the idea that Miami had some type of defensive strategy that actually worked is laughable. Denver shot 59% on 2s, 39% on 3s and were 19-22 from the line. Denver's offense has been historically good in the playoffs and was better in this game. That is just a fact.

Miami going zone in the 4th after not playing it much all game might have thrown Denver off temporarily but their problem was on defense. If you let the other team have an ORTG of 129 it is pretty hard to win.

You can tell me that it was only a 3-Pt game and if Miami didn't have an above-average shooting night that Denver would have won it, but the fact is that the 1st unit for the Nuggets did struggle to score the ball consistently throughout the game until they finally hit a series of 3s at the end when they couldn't overcome the 11-pt deficit late in the game.

Even Jokic struggled for about 60% of the game before coming alive in the 2nd half. Jokic had 13 pts on 13 shots and 3 assists and was a -8 in the 1st half. In the 2nd half he had 28 on 10/15 shooting but just 1 assist and 4 turnovers, and he was still a -3 on the court in that half as well.

Idk why you're so reluctant to give Miami credit for making adjustments and forcing the Nuggets to play outside of their comfort zone. Jokic had 4 or less assists just 3 times total the whole season (RS + POs, and he didn't play 30+ minutes in the other games where his assist total was this low or worse) leading up to G2 of the Finals.

[tontoz]

You can tell me that it was only a 3-Pt game and if Miami didn't have an above-average shooting night that Denver would have won it, but the fact is that the 1st unit for the Nuggets did struggle to score the ball consistently throughout the game until they finally hit a series of 3s at the end when they couldn't overcome the 11-pt deficit late in the game.

Even Jokic struggled for about 60% of the game before coming alive in the 2nd half. Jokic had 13 pts on 13 shots and 3 assists and was a -8 in the 1st half. In the 2nd half he had 28 on 10/15 shooting but just 1 assist and 4 turnovers, and he was still a -3 on the court in that half as well.

Idk why you're so reluctant to give Miami credit for making adjustments and forcing the Nuggets to play outside of their comfort zone. Jokic had 4 or less assists just 3 times total the whole season (RS + POs, and he didn't play 30+ minutes in the other games where his assist total was this low or worse) leading up to G2 of the Finals.

You can cherry pick various stretches of the game all you want but it can't change the fact that Denver had an ORTG of 124 for the game. That is pretty strong for a team playing "outside it's comfort zone". :oldlol:

Funny how you talk about me saying it was only a 3 pt game, which i never said, and then you turn around and say "until they finally hit a series of 3s at the end ". Sounds like you can't keep your story straight.

[elementally morale]

Jokic had 28 points in the 2nd half on 10-15 shooting. I think he should start all quarters. No load management needed, this is the Finals. You can rest all summer. Putting Butler on Murray is such a self-explanatory idea I'm actually shocked it took them G1 to figure it out. Christian Braun could and probably should play more minutes. If I were Malone I'd try making him a starter. Or is he isn't and KCP is not delivering Braun should be taking his place on the court sooner. I'd make Jokic more of a scorer at the start of all quarters. The double team will come if he scores 8-10 points in 5 minutes every quarter which he is able to do. He won't be a better defender overnight but his rebounding should be more of a focal point, especially offensive rebounds. For that to happen he needs to play closer to the basket which will happen once he is looking to score. I'm not sure it's a good idea to have him on Bam all game. Aaron Gordon may be a better choice when Kevin Love is on the floor. Jokic can probably guard Love. All n all Denver needs to come out in both games in Miami with more energy. The game was lost on too many easy looks for Miami and lack of effort from Denver.

[ImKobe]

You can cherry pick various stretches of the game all you want but it can't change the fact that Denver had an ORTG of 124 for the game. That is pretty strong for a team playing "outside it's comfort zone". :oldlol:

Funny how you talk about me saying it was only a 3 pt game, which i never said, and then you turn around and say "until they finally hit a series of 3s at the end ". Sounds like you can't keep your story straight.

They outscored the Heat by 8 in 6 minutes with Jokic on the bench. That significantly contributed to that huge ORTG number and the end result. The 1st unit for Denver did not have a great game together which was really my point and I provided some stats & stretches to back it up. Murray had a run with the bench with Jokic resting and they made some tough desperation 3s at the end which makes it look better on paper if you just play the results.

The adjustments Heat made had them up 21 - 10 early and obviously helped them win the game. Kevin love was +18 in 22 minutes when he got 0 in Game 1. Idk why you'd just cherry-pick 2 stats and ignore the adjustment that actually helped Miami win this game.

[tontoz]

They outscored the Heat by 8 in 6 minutes with Jokic on the bench. That significantly contributed to that huge ORTG number and the end result. The 1st unit for Denver did not have a great game together which was really my point and I provided some stats & stretches to back it up. Murray had a run with the bench with Jokic resting and they made some tough desperation 3s at the end which makes it look better on paper if you just play the results.

The adjustments Heat made had them up 21 - 10 early and obviously helped them win the game. Kevin love was +18 in 22 minutes when he got 0 in Game 1. Idk why you'd just cherry-pick 2 stats and ignore the adjustment that actually helped Miami win this game.



Ortg isn't a cherry picked stat. It measures efficiency for the entire game. Teams make runs off and on during every game. In the end Denver's ORTG of 124 is well above their playoff average and also well above the league leader during the regular season.

Cherry picking is looking at a short stretch of a game that fits your narrative. For example looking at the minutes when Jokic was on the bench while ignoring that Jimmy Butler was also on the bench is cherry picking.

Miami's offense was the difference in the game. If they have an ORTG of 129 next game i would definitely expect them to win again.

[Heat_chips]

Here are the heats 3pt % in the playoffs so far,

Bucks - 60, 44, 49, 40, 38
Knicks - 33, 35, 22, 33, 30, 31
Celtics - 52, 34, 54, 25, 39, 47, 50.
Nuggets, 33, 49

They’ve shot over 40% 8 of their 20 games. And they went 6-2 in those. But shooting that well only got them a 3 point win against the Nuggets. For the post season, they are shooting 39%, but the variance has been very wide. If they need 49% to beat the Nuggets by three, it’s highly unlikely they will pull out three more wins. Of course it’s possible, and maybe they will figure out other ways to attack the Nuggets.

That said, it’s not decidedly not ‘normal’ for any team to shoot 45 percent on volume for an entire series, as they did against the Bucks, or 43% as they did against the Celtics. We are very much witnessing a series where a team will live or die by the three. Chances have always been against that (but maybe the Heat’s undrafted players really are as elite shooters as Curry and Thomson and Durant)

So what you're saying is the Heat have won 7 games in the playoffs when they shoot Under 40% . As they have won 13 playoff games up to this point, as 13 - 6 = 7 .. And what you're saying is the Heat can also win in other ways besides the 3-pt shooting,,, as they have proven to do

[ShawkFactory]

So what you're saying is the Heat have won 7 games in the playoffs when they shoot Under 40% . As they have won 13 playoff games up to this point, as 13 - 6 = 7 .. And what you're saying is the Heat can also win in other ways besides the 3-pt shooting,,, as they have proven to do

I think 4 of those 7 were against the Knicks. Not that they’re a trash team but clearly not on the same level as the other 3.

[Heat_chips]

I think 4 of those 7 were against the Knicks. Not that they’re a trash team but clearly not on the same level as the other 3.

So 3 were against the Bucks and Celtics, two vastly superior defensive teams to the Nuggets trash D

[ShawkFactory]

So 3 were against the Bucks and Celtics, two vastly superior defensive teams to the Nuggets trash D

I just looked at it. Between the Bucks, Celtics, and Nuggets only 3 of their 9 wins have been with them shooting below 40%. The times they did it against the Bucks they shot 39% and 38% against the Celtics is was 35%.

[Heat_chips]

I just looked at it. Between the Bucks, Celtics, and Nuggets only 3 of their 9 wins have been with them shooting below 40%. The times they did it against the Bucks they shot 39% and 38% against the Celtics is was 35%.

2006 Mavericks = 60 wins (26-15 on the road)

2023 Nuggets = 53 wins (19-22 on the road)

If the 2006 Heat can beat the Mavs in the Finals, the current Heat can most certainly beat the nuggets who are atrocious defensively

[Heat_chips]

I just looked at it. Between the Bucks, Celtics, and Nuggets only 3 of their 9 wins have been with them shooting below 40%. The times they did it against the Bucks they shot 39% and 38% against the Celtics is was 35%.

You're also ignoring the fact the Heat have shot well since 20 games left in the season where the Heat shot 39% from 3 over those 20 games.. This did not begin when the playoff bell rung

People have said "it won't be sustainable" for 4 months now... yet the heat keep winning and doing it

[ShawkFactory]

2006 Mavericks = 60 wins (26-15 on the road)

2023 Nuggets = 53 wins (19-22 on the road)

If the 2006 Heat can beat the Mavs in the Finals, the current Heat can most certainly beat the nuggets who are atrocious defensively

I don't understand your insistence that this is a comparable situation. It's really bizarre.

But anyway...the Heat will still probably shoot fine. Slowing the game down against the Nuggets is a good move. I don't expect Porter to be as horrible as he was in game 2 again.

It's fine. These things happen in a series. It's now the Nugget's turn to adjust (I.e just playing harder and with more urgency honestly) and I think they will be fine.

I mean the Heat COULD do it..

[Heat_chips]

What's also funny is the Nuggets perimeter defense is far worse than the Bucks and Celtics perimeter defenses, leading to loads more open looks for the Heat.. If anything, that fact alone leans to being very sustainable for the Heats 3 pt shooting, and even better in some games

[tontoz]

So 3 were against the Bucks and Celtics, two vastly superior defensive teams to the Nuggets trash D


The nuggets have a drtg of 112 in the playoffs, tied with the heat.

https://www.nba.com/stats/teams/advanced

[tpols]

What's also funny is the Nuggets perimeter defense is far worse than the Bucks and Celtics perimeter defenses, leading to loads more open looks for the Heat.. If anything, that fact alone leans to being very sustainable for the Heats 3 pt shooting, and even better in some games

Duncan Robinson was hitting contested 25+ footers vs Denver and couldn't make wide open clutch 3s vs the Celtics vaunted defense.

I like Miamis chances too, but the game is a dice roll and sometimes guys get hot for no reason against decent defense and can even go cold vs poor defense.

[Heat_chips]

The nuggets have a drtg of 112 in the playoffs, tied with the heat.

https://www.nba.com/stats/teams/advanced

In games 1 and 2 in Denver, nba analytics had the Heat with 57 wide open looks when including the whole court. There was no 2 game stretch in the playoffs where the Heat had more than 38 .. thats staggering !! the nuggets defense stinks. It was obvious to me when watching even game 1 that the Heat had loads of more open space on offense compared to the Bucks and Celtics series

The Heat will capitalize, the coaching staff is far too good

[tontoz]

In games 1 and 2 in Denver, nba analytics had the Heat with 57 wide open looks when including the whole court. There was no 2 game stretch in the playoffs where the Heat had more than 38 .. thats staggering !! the nuggets defense stinks. It was obvious to me when watching even game 1 that the Heat had loads of more open space on offense compared to the Bucks and Celtics series

The Heat will capitalize, the coaching staff is far too good


If the nuggets defense is so bad why do they have the same drtg in the playoffs as the heat? Why did the heat have an ortg of only 100 in game 1?

[Heat_chips]

If the nuggets defense is so bad why do they have the same drtg in the playoffs as the heat? Why did the heat have an ortg of only 100 in game 1?

because that stat sucks and doesnt factor everything. Thats why Spoelstra said last year that the drtg stat is meaningless

Spo >>>>>> you

[tontoz]

because that stat sucks and doesnt factor everything. Thats why Spoelstra said last year that the drtg stat is meaningless

Spo >>>>>> you


Drtg is meaningless, for players. For teams it is a very accurate measure of defense.

[Duffy Pratt]

Why is it okay for Golden State to win 4 titles and to be crowned a "Dynasty team" by living and dying by the 3 , playing great defense, with very smart disciplined play....

Why Can't the Heat do the same for one title this year ??

You do know that the Heat led ALL NBA teams in 3 point shooting last year, when they were the #1 seed, right ?? And with the same exact roster except for switching PJ Tucker for Kevin Love at PF.

If the Heat had shot 49% in Game 3, like they did in game 2, they would have had 18 more points. They now have four games left and they will either need to shoot like that in three of them, or find some other way to win (which they have not succeeded in doing).

And yes, there is a lot that goes into why they shot so much worse today. Denver made many fewer boneheaded plays. But it strikes me that that defense is repeatable. I also think, at some point, Porter and KCP are going to revert back to their norm (though maybe not). And I'm very confident that the performance we saw from Jokic is repeatable. He's had 30-20-10 three times in the post season, and the guy is averaging a triple double in the playoffs.

Miami could still pull it off, but the margin for error just got a lot slimmer. Still, should be no problem for Heat Culture, right?

[BallsOut]

Where bitchass OP go?

[tontoz]

What happened to that "make Jokic a scorer" defense? :oldlol:

[BallsOut]

OP stopped posting his basketball IQ for some reason

[FultzNationRISE]

Expect the Heat to do the same thing in Game 3.


Did they?

How did it go?