Does Deandre Ayton have another level? What's his potential in Portland?

[Im Still Ballin]

He has a skilled scoring game within sixteen feet. Here are his shooting splits by distance over the last three seasons:


Deandre Ayton 2021-2023

0-3 feet: 78.6% FG (38.5% of FGAs)
3-10 feet: 54.9% FG (33.8% of FGAs)
10-16 feet: 49.0% FG (18.5% of FGAs)
16+ feet 2pters: 42.2% FG (6.5% of FGAs)
3pt: 28.6% FG (2.8% of FGAs)

77.3% of his 2PT FGs were assisted. 94.4% of his 3PT FGs were assisted. Average field goal distance = 6.7 feet.

For comparison, here are Joel Embiid's numbers over that three-season stretch:


Joel Embiid 2021-2023

0-3 feet: 77.6% FG (25.2% of FGAs)
3-10 feet: 42.7% FG (20.3% of FGAs)
10-16 feet: 47.3% FG (24.3% of FGAs)
16+ feet 2pters: 47.4% FG (13.1% of FGAs)
3pt: 35.9% FG (17.0% of FGAs)

52.7% of his 2PT FGs were assisted. 81.1% of his 3PT FGs were assisted. Average field goal distance = 11.7 feet.

The obvious differences are the volume of shots taken, the level of self-creation, and the average field goal distance. It's hard to compare the two because they're on different teams and have played different roles. The level of defensive attention faced and shot quality are different.

Do you think Ayton will have a chance to become more of a focal point in Portland? Or do you think his role will remain relatively the same as he tries to fit with Jerami Grant, Scoot Henderson, and Anfernee Simons? If he does get a larger, more prominent role, what do you think he's capable of?

[GimmeThat]

I don't think the Blazers care, they're simply more interested in shedding the label of big man killers.

which probably has a lot to do with not correlating total reach as a combination of height, wingspan, and vertical

[Axe]

He'll be able to do what he wants in oregon. So he's the one who's going to benefit the most amongst the new guys coming there.

[Im Still Ballin]

He'll be able to do what he wants in oregon. So he's the one who's going to benefit the most coming there.

Maybe his potential is something of a more pick-and-roll-oriented LaMarcus Aldridge. Or a diet Joel Embiid. He could feast with that close-in mid-range game like both those guys did/do. From the free-throw line region.

[Im Still Ballin]

Here are some game highlights from DA's time on the Bahamian national team. Worse competition but a little visual for what he might be capable of in a larger role:


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RZJ9pP1Bo_Q&ab_channel=ZHHighlights


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vsp0sGoMIsI&ab_channel=ZHHighlights

[GimmeThat]

a flat footed DeAndre Jordan

[JohnMax]

He's going to be a low tier star. He showed flashes of it during Suns Finals run.

[Xiao Yao You]

They'll be hoping a team takes him off their hands once Williams is beating him in practice

[Im Still Ballin]

They'll be hoping a team takes him off their hands once Williams is beating him in practice

Based on what I've read, it's not an either-or: they intend to play them together. May work better than Jarrett Allen and Evan Mobley due to Ayton's strong mid-range shooting and overall scoring advantage.

[Akeem34TheDream]

They'll be hoping a team takes him off their hands once Williams is beating him in practice

Williams do not play most of the time so it is okay.

[GimmeThat]

May work better than Jarrett Allen and Evan Mobley due to Ayton's strong mid-range shooting and overall scoring advantage.

if anything, it's more like the continuation of Pau/Dwight experiment, I get the Allen/Mobley comparison due to PnR plays, but due to guys like Boris Diaw, someone got to shoot the long ball. especially with those salary figures.

[highwhey]

He's going to be a low tier star. He showed flashes of it during Suns Finals run.

starface, that's when he peaked.

[Xiao Yao You]

star talent not the mentality or heart of one

[highwhey]

OP, ofc he'll have a chance. but i don't think he'll ever be better than 'mid'. he can roll out of bed and put up 18/10 while playing more ps5 than actual basketball practice, ask the suns front office about that. he doesn't want it.

[Im Still Ballin]

OP, ofc he'll have a chance. but i don't think he'll ever be better than 'mid'. he can roll out of bed and put up 18/10 while playing more ps5 than actual basketball practice, ask the suns front office about that. he doesn't want it.

Fair enough. I think he'll average a little more this upcoming season by virtue of having a slightly larger role. I'm thinking 20-22 ppg. Obviously, it doesn't mean he's any better, just that he's getting more shots.

[Xiao Yao You]

Fair enough. I think he'll average a little more this upcoming season by virtue of having a slightly larger role. I'm thinking 20-22 ppg. Obviously, it doesn't mean he's any better, just that he's getting more shots.

you're assuming their guards are going to give up the ball

[rawimpact]

He's going to be greg monroe 2.0

Dudes going to put up good numbers playing for a team that has given him the green light for trade value.

He is not part of a rebuild, he is a trading piece at this point unless he proves otherwise.

Guards are harder to draft these days and they take time to develop. Ayton's at 25 already...

[Charlie Sheen]

This is a problem with too many of the Sean Miller Arizona players to be a coincidence. Not a question about the talent but they are so far behind their peers in development when they leave for the NBA.

Coming into the NBA his defense at the 5 was an assumption based off him being a ++ athlete at his size. He played the 4 in college and the only thing he was good at was finishing when he was drafted. To his credit he is coachable. He plays disciplined.

[Xiao Yao You]

Sean Highkin: Deandre Ayton: “I bring dominance. My name is DominAyton.” (https://*********.com/social/)

– via Twitter highkin (https://twitter.com/highkin)



:facepalm

[Xiao Yao You]

Evan Sidery: Deandre Ayton on questions about his motor: “I told the guys this summer that I’ll be changing the narrative. I’m in an organization that wants me and wants me to succeed. There will be a lot more grit and a lot more domination this year.” (https://*********.com/social/) Ayton said “DominAyton” is coming to… pic.twitter.com/GpMKvaTHLe

– via Twitter esidery (https://twitter.com/esidery)



the Suns didn't want the 1st pick in the draft to succeed? :facepalm

[999Guy]

the Suns didn't want the 1st pick in the draft to succeed? :facepalm

A loser at heart pure and simple.

I found this post on a Suns board and it is the truest shit I've ever read about him:


100%. I think people are gonna be surprised when he averages 22/10 on good efficiency, but they won’t realize it’s all the other things that make him a losing player.

He averages 10 boards a game, but when you actually watch the games you realize he could easily average ~13 per game if he put in more effort. He’s terrible at grabbing contested rebounds and generally his rebounds feel extremely “empty”.

He’s also a pretty good scorer for a C, has a great post hook and a solid middy. BUT, nothing is more frustrating than watching your 7’0 center with a 40 inch vert refuse to dunk the ball. I’ve literally never seen such a big, athletic guy that just doesn’t dunk the ball. Consistently settles for ~5 foot touch shots when he could just take a step and slam it.

That plays into the next thing, he avoids contact by all means. Whether it’s rebounding, screening, posting up, driving, or defending, he is ALLERGIC to creating any contact. He sets soft screens (for a 7 footer), he gets pushed around on the boards, and almost NEVER gets FTs.

The guy is genuinely talented asf, but he’s such an “empty” player. He sleepwalks to 16/10 which is why it hurts even more that he’s just not actually that good. If he had the mindset of Shaq, or Barkley, or Amare Stoudamire, he’d legitimately be an MVP type player, but he just doesn’t. He’s gonna put in enough effort to get paid and get good stats, but he’s just not a winner.

I wanted Phoenix to succeed as a new, interesting, organic young team. Bridges is among the best role players ever IMO. Booker is a pure winner who gets better every year. And better as the season gets longer.

Ayton is the softest big man I have ever seen. Hands down. Low FTR, league-worst in boxing out, no screen game, no strength in his low-post moves, and doesn't DUNK. What kind of 7'0" 260, no body fat beast doesn't dunk and would rather use the glass or float it in?

[Xiao Yao You]

A loser at heart pure and simple.

I found this post on a Suns board and it is the truest shit I've ever read about him:



I wanted Phoenix to succeed as a new, interesting, organic young team. Bridges is among the best role players ever IMO. Booker is a pure winner who gets better every year. And better as the season gets longer.

Ayton is the softest big man I have ever seen. Hands down. Low FTR, league-worst in boxing out, no screen game, no strength in his low-post moves, and doesn't DUNK. What kind of 7'0" 260, no body fat beast doesn't dunk and would rather use the glass or float it in?

He was drafted #1 for a reason. He should be one of the best bigs. He's not. That's on him

[Axe]

Maybe his potential is something of a more pick-and-roll-oriented LaMarcus Aldridge. Or a diet Joel Embiid. He could feast with that close-in mid-range game like both those guys did/do. From the free-throw line region.
Probably but it's hinted that he'll play more like a traditional big. Would be interesting to see how he'd mesh with brogdon.