Im Still Ballin
11-22-2023, 01:53 AM
From 2008 to 2012, Dwight Howard played in 375 regular season games and 53 playoff games—a total of 428 games. Roughly equivalent to 5¼ season's worth.
The playoff sample increases the average strength of opposition, so this is a really good quality sample. Dwight's performance didn't drop off in the postseason sample. How many great players can say that? Many legends dropped off significantly.
Over those games 428 games, Dwight averaged 20.5 ppg and shot 59.5% FG and 61.3% TS with heaves/threes removed. He did this in a league that had an average true shooting percentage of 53.9% TS and a two-point field goal percentage of 48.5% 2PT.
Therefore, his relative efficiency was +7.2 rTS and +11.0 r2PT. If you did it by percentage, it would be 113.7% adjusted TS% and 122.7% adjusted 2PT%. Or in other words, 13.7% and 22.7% above league average.
Last season's average true shooting percentage and two-point field goal percentage were 58.1% TS and 54.8% 2PT. By simply adjusting for these numbers using both methods, Dwight's adjusted 2023 true shooting percentage and two-point field goal percentage would be 66.1% TS and 67.2% 2PT. Using the other method would yield 65.3% TS (+7.2 rTS) and 65.8% 2PT (+11.0 r2PT).
Impressive!
But what about the 20.5 ppg? We need to adjust it for the new 2023 2PT%.
3058 2PTM / 5140 2PTA = 59.5% 2PT
5140 x .672 = 3454.1 2PTM (adjusted 2PT% version)
5140 x .658 = 3382.1 2PTM (r2PT version)
3454.1 x 2 = 6908.2 points
3382.1 x 2 = 6764.2 points
6908.2 points - 6116 points = 792.2 extra points
6764.2 points - 6116 points = 648.2 extra points
8791 points + 792.2 extra points = 9583.2 total points / 428 games = 22.4 ppg
8791 points + 648.2 extra points = 9439.2 total points / 428 games = 22.1 ppg
So, there you have it:
- 22.4 ppg on 67.2% FG and 66.9% TS with heaves/threes removed (relative TS%)
- 22.1 ppg on 65.8% FG and 65.9% TS with heaves/threes removed (rTS)
I think those ppg numbers may even slightly underestimate Dwight in today's league. The increased screening, rolling, and switching causing mismatches, shooting, spacing, and pace favor his hybrid PnR-post-up offensive game. As much as 2008-2012 Orlando played a protomodern style, they'd be one of the least three-point shooting, pick-and-roll teams today. And the slowest paced.
Dwight would be rolling, cutting, and running the break more, while his post-up volume would cut out a lot of the inefficient fat. He'd get more high-quality deep position post-ups on mismatches while selectively isolating in the post on the right matchups. He'd also be facing smaller lineups.
Maybe 23 ppg at most. Somewhere between 22.5 to 23 seems right to me. If you don't think that's possible, consider that AD was putting up like 28-30 ppg on 60%+ FG over like 35+ games after doubling his screening frequency and basically stopping shooting jump shots. Focused purely on playing as the roll man to get easy baskets in the paint and at the rim.
This video from Thinking Basketball covers this:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zkqiLMoJh6I
As good as AD is playing like this, Dwight is much better. He's perhaps the best ever at playing like this. Using the PnR to not only get lobs and rolls but also deep inside position and to dominate the offensive glass. Weaponizing his verticality and power game to get easy buckets.
The playoff sample increases the average strength of opposition, so this is a really good quality sample. Dwight's performance didn't drop off in the postseason sample. How many great players can say that? Many legends dropped off significantly.
Over those games 428 games, Dwight averaged 20.5 ppg and shot 59.5% FG and 61.3% TS with heaves/threes removed. He did this in a league that had an average true shooting percentage of 53.9% TS and a two-point field goal percentage of 48.5% 2PT.
Therefore, his relative efficiency was +7.2 rTS and +11.0 r2PT. If you did it by percentage, it would be 113.7% adjusted TS% and 122.7% adjusted 2PT%. Or in other words, 13.7% and 22.7% above league average.
Last season's average true shooting percentage and two-point field goal percentage were 58.1% TS and 54.8% 2PT. By simply adjusting for these numbers using both methods, Dwight's adjusted 2023 true shooting percentage and two-point field goal percentage would be 66.1% TS and 67.2% 2PT. Using the other method would yield 65.3% TS (+7.2 rTS) and 65.8% 2PT (+11.0 r2PT).
Impressive!
But what about the 20.5 ppg? We need to adjust it for the new 2023 2PT%.
3058 2PTM / 5140 2PTA = 59.5% 2PT
5140 x .672 = 3454.1 2PTM (adjusted 2PT% version)
5140 x .658 = 3382.1 2PTM (r2PT version)
3454.1 x 2 = 6908.2 points
3382.1 x 2 = 6764.2 points
6908.2 points - 6116 points = 792.2 extra points
6764.2 points - 6116 points = 648.2 extra points
8791 points + 792.2 extra points = 9583.2 total points / 428 games = 22.4 ppg
8791 points + 648.2 extra points = 9439.2 total points / 428 games = 22.1 ppg
So, there you have it:
- 22.4 ppg on 67.2% FG and 66.9% TS with heaves/threes removed (relative TS%)
- 22.1 ppg on 65.8% FG and 65.9% TS with heaves/threes removed (rTS)
I think those ppg numbers may even slightly underestimate Dwight in today's league. The increased screening, rolling, and switching causing mismatches, shooting, spacing, and pace favor his hybrid PnR-post-up offensive game. As much as 2008-2012 Orlando played a protomodern style, they'd be one of the least three-point shooting, pick-and-roll teams today. And the slowest paced.
Dwight would be rolling, cutting, and running the break more, while his post-up volume would cut out a lot of the inefficient fat. He'd get more high-quality deep position post-ups on mismatches while selectively isolating in the post on the right matchups. He'd also be facing smaller lineups.
Maybe 23 ppg at most. Somewhere between 22.5 to 23 seems right to me. If you don't think that's possible, consider that AD was putting up like 28-30 ppg on 60%+ FG over like 35+ games after doubling his screening frequency and basically stopping shooting jump shots. Focused purely on playing as the roll man to get easy baskets in the paint and at the rim.
This video from Thinking Basketball covers this:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zkqiLMoJh6I
As good as AD is playing like this, Dwight is much better. He's perhaps the best ever at playing like this. Using the PnR to not only get lobs and rolls but also deep inside position and to dominate the offensive glass. Weaponizing his verticality and power game to get easy buckets.