The MVP race is completely open now

[elementally morale]

The Nuggets lost 5 of their last 10. They struggle against the elite teams of the West. Jokic would've been an easy choice 2 weeks ago but he is not any more. He is in another mini-slump now. Embiid is out. Shai, Luka and maybe Giannis still have a shot. Tatum should be there as the best player on a team that is winning a lot more than any other team. Kawhi may have an outside shot if the Clippers keep it up. Sabonis is playing great and he is not even an all-star which is a historically bad decision.

I think it's between Shai and Jokic at the moment but I don't see a clear winner here. I'm not sure who deserves it this year. It will really come down to the last 25 games.Who would you vote for?

[Im Still Ballin]

I agree. Shai, Giannis, and Jokic are the frontrunners right now.

[90sgoat]

Mavs have won 6 in a row now.

They're just one spot behind Phoenix for 5th. If Luka beats Booker, Durant and Beal in the standings in the West, then isn't that enough?

If they keep going like this, Luka still has a chance, but they'll need to be on pace for something like 60+ wins for the rest of the season.

I think Luka should probably deserve the win this year, but Shai has a good case too. It's not as if he leads a team of veterans. It's mostly young players.

[Jasper]

Bucks claim 2nd seed , Giannis should get the nod

[Xiao Yao You]

Bucks claim 2nd seed , Giannis should get the nod

loaded team. Why does he get it?

[Real Men Wear Green]

Bucks claim 2nd seed , Giannis should get the nod
Nope. Antetokuonmpo has a narrative working against him with the way Milwaukee has underachieved. Unless Milwaukee passes Boston he's not going to get it. A second place finish where they're still 5 games back won't be enough. The favorite right now is SGA, then Jokic then maybe Doncic. Giannis is a better player than Doncic but Milwaukee is underachieving spectacularly.

[Kblaze8855]

Feels like one of those years a guy just get slotted in by default with the best record. Tatum may well be the guy.

[NBAGOAT]

Think it’s shai. Numbers are insane and he could be leading the 1 seed in the west. His defense is lowkey great too that’s an edge he has on Luka

[tontoz]

Think it’s shai. Numbers are insane and he could be leading the 1 seed in the west. His defense is lowkey great too that’s an edge he has on Luka

I agree I think SGA is the guy.

Jokic dgaf about the MVP. They are just cruising until the playoffs.

[FultzNationRISE]

The logic to these things is always retarded.

For instance if I make an argument for Luka, people will say "Shai has a better record, he deserves it more."

Ok, well if we're going by record, then as Kblaze says it may as well be Tatum.

But then people will say "Nah but Shai is better than Tatum."

But that's not the argument you used for Shai over Luka. You said team record.

And you were gonna give it to Embiid without having the best record until he got hurt. But Giannis is somehow out of the running even tho he has a similar record to Embiid, because you thought his team "was supposed to do better" as if that has anything to do with how Giannis himself is playing.

So these debates are always just nonsense.

[FultzNationRISE]

I also think Domas has as good an argument for being an MVP right now as any of these guys, and he wasnt even picked as an all-star.

Played in every game so far, which I think should count for something when it comes to being valuable. He's shooting 62% from the field, and 43% from 3 (!), albeit the latter on a low number of attempts. Grabs 13 rebounds and dishes 8 assists, which are the best numbers at his position along with Jokic. But because he only scores 20 points per game instead of 27, people will say Tatum is the better player because "27 points > 20 points," which is how the common basketball pleb analyzes the game.

He's an average defender at best but he can generally hold his matchup to as many points as he scores himself, while being a much better quarterback of the offense and hitting the boards harder. It's like people will say SGA is a better two way player than Luka as if that means something, but when they recently faced off Luka finished with more points, assists, and the win, so what did SGA's defense achieve? He certainly didnt stop Doncic.

But again, this is a bit more nuanced than the typical "20 ppg and his team is in sixth!" analysis the typical rube is gonna give to dismiss Sabonis, whether in the media or on the internet, so we know know Domas is out of the race. But the point is just that the award is extremely superficial and decided by stupid people.

[Real Men Wear Green]

Feels like one of those years a guy just get slotted in by default with the best record. Tatum may well be the guy.
I would love to see that but last week SAS brought him up as the frontrunner and Brian Windhorst said that in conversations he had with mvp voters they were holding him coming up short in the playoffs against him. There is an argument to be made against that idea but if that's how the voters feel then the argument doesn't matter and Windhorst would know. I think Tatum would have to get his scoring average back up to thirty. He could do that but if it came as the result of chucking instead of shooting better he really wouldn't be deserving of the award. So I don't think this will be his year. If he can impress those voters this postseason he will have a good chance next year.

[Kblaze8855]

The Success thing is weird, considering he’s already been to the finals. How many people win MVP before they even get that far? Giannis Harden Jokic Rose Nash, Jordan, David Robinson, KG Iverson curry Barkley. More I’m sure, but that was just a random string off the top of my head

Feels like most people become MVPs before they have more playoff success than Tatum. I don’t think he is the MVP but it will be a pretty inconsistent reason to say he isn’t. Not that the process is usually consistent to begin with.

[elementally morale]

Jokic deserved it last year and didn't get it. He is way less deserving this year (so far) but it would not surprise me if the voters gave it to him if it is inconclusive this year just as 'compensation'. Which is not something I find a good idea. On the other hand I can't decide who is more deserving. SGA, Luka, Tatum... sure, why not... but it's not clear why. As I said in the OP it will come down to the last 25 games and this year will actually be interesting. Many people will get 1st place votes, it will be a close race.

[Xiao Yao You]

Jokic deserved it last year and didn't get it. He is way less deserving this year (so far) but it would not surprise me if the voters gave it to him if it is inconclusive this year just as 'compensation'. Which is not something I find a good idea. On the other hand I can't decide who is more deserving. SGA, Luka, Tatum... sure, why not... but it's not clear why. As I said in the OP it will come down to the last 25 games and this year will actually be interesting. Many people will get 1st place votes, it will be a close race.

If Tatum is a candidate than Ant should be. Boston is loaded

[Kblaze8855]

Ant belongs in the conversation I would say, but I don’t think the voters are ready to acknowledge him. SGA either. They’re usually a year or two late to accept new made men.

[Real Men Wear Green]

The Success thing is weird, considering he’s already been to the finals. How many people win MVP before they even get that far? Giannis Harden Jokic Rose Nash, Jordan, David Robinson, KG Iverson curry Barkley. More I’m sure, but that was just a random string off the top of my head

Feels like most people become MVPs before they have more playoff success than Tatum. I don’t think he is the MVP but it will be a pretty inconsistent reason to say he isn’t. Not that the process is usually consistent to begin with.
It isn't a logical reason to say he isn't the most valuable player but if that's how the voters feel there's nothing to be done about it.

[FultzNationRISE]

Ant belongs in the conversation I would say, but I don’t think the voters are ready to acknowledge him. SGA either. They’re usually a year or two late to accept new made men.

SGA has a very real chance this year and is currently on a lot of shortlists you see posted around online. Largely on the perception that he has far less “help” than guys like Ant or most of the other candidates while having a top record. Whether thats true or not is hard to say because a team as a whole is greater than the sum of its parts. I think people believe that without SGA the Thunder would be the Pistons, which is simply not true but thats how people look at it. Nobody else on the team has any historical pedigree so the credit is given entirely to their All Star. Not to take anything away from him, he’s been terrific, but in reality it’s not that simple.

I think the advanced metrics and the eye test will tell you SGA is on the bottom end of the top tier, rather than leading it, but again it’s more of a narrative thing. Voters may easily feel like he best fits the criteria for their arbitrary narratives.

[elementally morale]

Ant belongs in the conversation I would say, but I don’t think the voters are ready to acknowledge him. SGA either. They’re usually a year or two late to accept new made men.

And this is why I think Jokic has the best chance still. He may not be as deserving as he was last year (he is not so far) but if there is no clear cut winner he may just get it on name recognition. Luka could actually beat him if Dallas ends the season very strong. But I really have no idea this year.

[Axe]

Sga should win it, since he's brought the thunder to somewhere bet. the 4th-6th seed last year.

[tontoz]

SGA has a very real chance this year and is currently on a lot of shortlists you see posted around online. Largely on the perception that he has far less “help” than guys like Ant or most of the other candidates while having a top record. Whether thats true or not is hard to say because a team as a whole is greater than the sum of its parts. I think people believe that without SGA the Thunder would be the Pistons, which is simply not true but thats how people look at it. Nobody else on the team has any historical pedigree so the credit is given entirely to their All Star. Not to take anything away from him, he’s been terrific, but in reality it’s not that simple.

I think the advanced metrics and the eye test will tell you SGA is on the bottom end of the top tier, rather than leading it, but again it’s more of a narrative thing. Voters may easily feel like he best fits the criteria for their arbitrary narratives.



SGA currently leads the league in win shares and win shares per 48. He is 3rd in BPM and 2nd in VORP. If the advanced metrics have counted for Jokic in recent years they should count for SGA too.

[FultzNationRISE]

SGA currently leads the league in win shares and win shares per 48. He is 3rd in BPM and 2nd in VORP. If the advanced metrics have counted for Jokic in recent years they should count for SGA too.


Thats fair, I honestly dont follow the advanced metrics closely or know which is which, I just saw it posted somewhere and the ones they used had him more in the 5-6 range for a lot of things. But this was also a little while back so it may have changed.

SGA is remarkably consistent and very valuable, what I see when I watch is hes slightly less dominant than Embiid (who is out now) or even Doncic, and he also has a lower ceiling than Jokic and Giannis. And the thing is these guys also play near their ceiling pretty consistently (except Jokic this year).

So if the question is “Who is the best regular season player this year” then I think it goes without saying Lebron is that guy, but even after him I think Shai is not quite in that top group, despite being very close. But when you factor in narrative he has a very good shot.

[Xiao Yao You]

Thats fair, I honestly dont follow the advanced metrics closely or know which is which, I just saw it posted somewhere and the ones they used had him more in the 5-6 range for a lot of things. But this was also a little while back so it may have changed.

SGA is remarkably consistent and very valuable, what I see when I watch is hes slightly less dominant than Embiid (who is out now) or even Doncic, and he also has a lower ceiling than Jokic and Giannis. And the thing is these guys also play near their ceiling pretty consistently (except Jokic this year).

So if the question is “Who is the best regular season player this year” then I think it goes without saying Lebron is that guy, but even after him I think Shai is not quite in that top group, despite being very close. But when you factor in narrative he has a very good shot.

Lebron probably top 5 on the Lakers anyway. Maybe he'll get a banner for participation

[FultzNationRISE]

Lebron probably top 5 on the Lakers anyway. Maybe he'll get a banner for participation


Lebron James IS that guy. Deal with it.

[Kblaze8855]

SGA currently leads the league in win shares and win shares per 48. He is 3rd in BPM and 2nd in VORP. If the advanced metrics have counted for Jokic in recent years they should count for SGA too.

I don’t know if the advanced numbers are why Jokic won. There are definitely people who factor it in heavily, but even they are inconsistent. Like that guy who voted Kessler for rookie of the year using Advance numbers as is only justification then turning around and not voting Jokic for MVP. Turned out he was just a Jazz writer trying to justify his bias. I feel like anyone being honest with themselves, can just look at him play and understand that Jokic is ****ing ridiculous. I don’t know if SGA grabs you the same way. I love his game but Jokic has that at a glance special quality. At least if you aren’t the type who only sees that in athletic feats.

Jokic and Luka have the edge on SGA there and it is a factor.

Really I just don’t know what they’re gonna do. Like 4 people could win it and not surprise me.

[Carbine]

Vegas odds suggest it's a two man race.

Jokic is a -140 favorite and Shai a +210 underdog.

Everyone else is far away from them. Almost +1000 odds for #3 Giannis.

[Kblaze8855]

Feels like a good time to put something on Tatum. His odds must be outrageous.

[iamgine]

I think it's between Luka and Jokic.

[Xiao Yao You]

I don’t know if the advanced numbers are why Jokic won. There are definitely people who factor it in heavily, but even they are inconsistent. Like that guy who voted Kessler for rookie of the year using Advance numbers as is only justification then turning around and not voting Jokic for MVP. Turned out he was just a Jazz writer trying to justify his bias. I feel like anyone being honest with themselves, can just look at him play and understand that Jokic is ****ing ridiculous. I don’t know if SGA grabs you the same way. I love his game but Jokic has that at a glance special quality. At least if you aren’t the type who only sees that in athletic feats.

Jokic and Luka have the edge on SGA there and it is a factor.

Really I just don’t know what they’re gonna do. Like 4 people could win it and not surprise me.

Ron Boone? He was the only one not to vote for Chris Paul as ROTY because Deron out played him head to head! :facepalm

[tontoz]

SGA is averaging 31 ppg with a TS of 65%. If I remember right the only guy to average over 30 with a TS of 65% for a season is Steph, who's done it twice.

SGA is also leading the league in steals.

[FultzNationRISE]

Feels like a good time to put something on Tatum. His odds must be outrageous.


I think Luka is now a strong dark horse relative to his betting odds as well.

If Dallas stays healthier post-allstar break than they were pre-allstar break they can definitely make a run up to the 3-4 seed. Not to mention they did get better at the deadline. Luka's gonna win the scoring title with Embiid out, while being 3rd in the league in assists. He kept them afloat while Irving and Kleber and occasionally Lively were out, and that's literally the core of their team. He was playing with Grant Williams, Seth Curry and Richaun Holmes and kept them in the playoff hunt in the West.

I was critical of his extreme ball dominance early in the season, but I think it's really what Kidd asked him to do. Kidd doesnt shy away from the fact in press conferences that Luka IS the game plan when theyre undermanned, and that's by Kidd's design.

I think when everyone is healthy and the group chemistry is there things balance out a little better. And he really is carrying a load no other player does. I think he's got a very valid argument for the award as of right now.

[Doomsday Dallas]

https://mir-s3-cdn-cf.behance.net/project_modules/disp/7521b5118292811.6086a2ad03091.jpg


34.2 points / 9.5 assists / 8.8 rebs (32-23)

[Doomsday Dallas]

The West is stacked right now... gonna be hard for Luka & the Mavs to have a good enough record for MVP considerations.

[BarberSchool]

Mavs have won 6 in a row now.

They're just one spot behind Phoenix for 5th. If Luka beats Booker, Durant and Beal in the standings in the West, then isn't that enough?

If they keep going like this, Luka still has a chance, but they'll need to be on pace for something like 60+ wins for the rest of the season.

I think Luka should probably deserve the win this year, but Shai has a good case too. It's not as if he leads a team of veterans. It's mostly young players.Luka’s dominant scoring, against ANY type of defense and ANY type of defender, is 2nd to none in the league. Embiid and him were basically neck and neck, but with Embiid missing the cutoff, it’s Luka’s Scoring title easy.

His playmaking/passing, is only bested by Halliburton.

To be best or 2nd best in the entire league in BOTH scoring and passing/playmaking, in the same season, ordinarily would be difficult NOT to win MVP. But Luka’s defense is that bad lol. Been better as of late, and he has climbed up to around 10th in steals per game IIRC. But his on ball perimeter defense is bad. Real bad.

And their record is still not high enough to win it. General you gotta be the best player on a top 2 seed to get MVP. Not his fault, as Kyrie was out for almost half the season, and they had so many other injuries, but just stating facts.

I think this year is strange. As the other front runners besides Embiid all have significant negatives or slumps….I cannot enthusiastically vote for Jokic, Shai, Luka, or Kawhi. And Embiid won’t qualify. Tatum frankly isn’t good enough and has the personality of a sheet of paper. No MVP !!!! Lol