How much of today's game simply comes down to 3pt shooting luck?

[dankok8]

Even in the playoffs...

With teams taking 40 threes a game, a difference between shooting 35% and 45% from 3pt range is 4 made threes which is 12 points. Back when teams took like 15 threes a game, it could hardly swing games or series but today... 12 more points is about +12 ORtg which is the difference between the best offense in the league and close to last.

Take any team in the league that makes the playoffs. Say Sacramento Kings. Say these guys get white hot and shoot 42% from 3pt range for like 20 games (very plausible with normal variance). How likely are they to win the title?

[Duffy Pratt]

Even in the playoffs...

With teams taking 40 threes a game, a difference between shooting 35% and 45% from 3pt range is 4 made threes which is 12 points. Back when teams took like 15 threes a game, it could hardly swing games or series but today... 12 more points is about +12 ORtg which is the difference between the best offense in the league and close to last.

Take any team in the league that makes the playoffs. Say Sacramento Kings. Say these guys get white hot and shoot 42% from 3pt range for like 20 games (very plausible with normal variance). How likely are they to win the title?

If you are taking 40 threes per game, the difference between 35 and 45% is no longer luck.

[ImKobe]

Kings are just not good enough where the 3PT luck alone would carry them to a deep Playoff run. They could fluke out a series, but a lot of other things would have to go their way.

[FultzNationRISE]

Well, repeat champions are down, so that might suggest yes, but the winning teams arent exactly models of run n gun. The Raptors with a Kawhi, Siakam, Gasol frontcourt werent a three point centric team. The Lakers who won the following year are famously inept from outside. The Bucks shot well but Jrue, Middleton, and Giannis are not a core that screams “three point bombing.” The Warriors of course are the archetypal three point shooting team, and then the Nuggets shoot well but I dont know how far they get without the best center in the game.

I think the playoffs being four series of best of seven games helps to reduce a lot of the potential noise a three point hot streak can create.

[Duffy Pratt]

Well, repeat champions are down, so that might suggest yes, but the winning teams arent exactly models of run n gun. The Raptors with a Kawhi, Siakam, Gasol frontcourt werent a three point centric team. The Lakers who won the following year are famously inept from outside. The Bucks shot well but Jrue, Middleton, and Giannis are not a core that screams “three point bombing.” The Warriors of course are the archetypal three point shooting team, and then the Nuggets shoot well but I dont know how far they get without the best center in the game.

I think the playoffs being four series of best of seven games helps to reduce a lot of the potential noise a three point hot streak can create.

Also, in the playoffs, a fair bit of the three point hot streak can be attributed to bad perimeter defense. Miami was on a ‘hot streak” from three last year against the Bucks and The Celtics (shooting 45 and 43 %). Against the Knick and Nuggets they went “cold’ (shooting 31 and 33 %). How much of that was on the shooters, and how much was it the defense or lack of it?

I know we like to say it’s a no-D era, but the all-star game showed us what a true no-D game looks like. In the playoffs, defense still matters. And with the volume of threes that teams are shooting, luck has less to do with it than who you get open, and how comfortable the open shot is.

[ArbitraryWater]

Have we seen any series winners in the last few teams where the team was worse in most categories and got unexpectedly hot to win it?


I dont recall

[NBAGOAT]

Have we seen any series winners in the last few teams where the team was worse in most categories and got unexpectedly hot to win it?


I dont recall

they didnt win it but shooting luck is a big reason miami made it to the finals. shot 45% from 3 vs mil shot 44% vs bos. Shot 34% in the regular season