Laker Free Throw Differential

[Duffy Pratt]

Through 66 games.

Lakers have had more free throws than opponents in 56 of the 66.

5 or more FTA differntial: Lakers 38 games, Opp. 5
That’s basically like spotting the Lakers a 4 point handicap in half of their games. No big deal?

10 or more: Lakers 19, Opp 4.

15 or more: Lakers 7, Opp 1.

20 or more!!!: Lakers 3, Opp 0.

In 14 of the Lakers wins (39%), the Lakers shot more free throw than the margin of victory. Compared to 5 of their losses where the opponents did the same. In 11 of those 14, they made more FTs than the margin of victory.


Here’s the thing, even if you somehow believe that this is not the result of bias, come playoff time the refs will swallow their whistles and this advantage diminishes or disappears. If it doesn’t, it tends to raise eyebrows and is a bad look for the league.

[SATAN]

You have to look at it on a game by game basis imo. There's been plenty of games where they weren't getting calls either against teams that play less physical.

[Baller234]

I need to see the numbers compared to the rest of the league.

If no other team comes close, then maybe you can make an argument that something fishy is going on.

[Duffy Pratt]

I need to see the numbers compared to the rest of the league.

If no other team comes close, then maybe you can make an argument that something fishy is going on.

First, you realize that differential has to balance out? Thus, the rest of the league can’t be comparable, but some teams might be. It takes a while to go through all the games, but if you pick a team you think should have this kind of advantage, I will do the comparison.

[FKAri]

They're 6th in terms of overall FTA:

https://www.statmuse.com/nba/ask/which-team-attempts-the-most-free-throws-per-game-this-season

The Magic and the Hawks seem surprisingly high. Surprised the Nuggets are 3rd from the bottom.


I think THIS is the stat OP is talking about tho which does seem anomalous but I suspect it will end up looking like the above list once the season is done.

https://www.statmuse.com/nba/ask?q=which+team+attempts+the+most+fta-opponent+fta+this+season+per+game

[Duffy Pratt]

They're 6th in terms of overall FTA:

https://www.statmuse.com/nba/ask/which-team-attempts-the-most-free-throws-per-game-this-season

The Magic and the Hawks seem surprisingly high. Surprised the Nuggets are 3rd from the bottom.


I think THIS is the stat OP is talking about tho which does seem anomalous but I suspect it will end up looking like the above list once the season is done.

https://www.statmuse.com/nba/ask?q=which+team+attempts+the+most+fta-opponent+fta+this+season+per+game

That’s the base stat. The Lakers are pretty extreme outliers. I was interested in looking at the games where the FTA differential is greater than the final score difference. Turns out it’s in 14 of their wins. That’s a pretty stark advantage.

[ImKobe]

Lakers are last in 3PA. Makes sense they get more FTs when they play closer to the basket, no? They're also 28th in opponent 3PT attempts (meaning 3rd most opponent 3PA) and with AD on defense a lot of teams would not be incentivized to attack the paint as much. It adds up.

[90sgoat]

When you sign Lebron, you don't just get one guy, you get four.

[Duffy Pratt]

Lakers are last in 3PA. Makes sense they get more FTs when they play closer to the basket, no? They're also 28th in opponent 3PT attempts (meaning 3rd most opponent 3PA) and with AD on defense a lot of teams would not be incentivized to attack the paint as much. It adds up.

New Orleans takes 2 more threes per game (ranked 23rd), their opponents take one more three per game than the Laker’s opponents. So on your theory, they should be pretty comparable, right? After all “it adds up.”

Lakers have had 366 more FTAs than their opponents, which is 50% higher than the next ranked team. Meanwhile, the Pelicans have 122 more FTA’s than their opponents, which is 1/3rd of what the Lakers have. So the Lakers get an extra four FTAs per game in differential over the Pelicans because they shoot 2 fewer threes??? (Even though their opponents take one more three per game.). Try again.

[beasted]

Love the statistical deep dive. Hearing crickets from the trolls though.

[Duffy Pratt]

To add a little more to the Laker/Pelican comparison. You would expect a team that drives more to the basket to get more FTAs. The Pelicans drive 10 more times per game than the Lakers.

[iamgine]

Through 66 games.

Lakers have had more free throws than opponents in 56 of the 66.

5 or more FTA differntial: Lakers 38 games, Opp. 5
That’s basically like spotting the Lakers a 4 point handicap in half of their games. No big deal?

10 or more: Lakers 19, Opp 4.

15 or more: Lakers 7, Opp 1.

20 or more!!!: Lakers 3, Opp 0.

In 14 of the Lakers wins (39%), the Lakers shot more free throw than the margin of victory. Compared to 5 of their losses where the opponents did the same. In 11 of those 14, they made more FTs than the margin of victory.


Here’s the thing, even if you somehow believe that this is not the result of bias, come playoff time the refs will swallow their whistles and this advantage diminishes or disappears. If it doesn’t, it tends to raise eyebrows and is a bad look for the league.
Well Lakers are #1 in not fouling. And they are last in 3pt attempt.

Naturally this leads to plenty of FT for them and not much for the opponent.

[beasted]

Well Lakers are #1 in not fouling. And they are last in 3pt attempt.

Naturally this leads to plenty of FT for them and not much for the opponent.
Did you realize you've simply restated observations that the OP has already stated in this thread in the first place. Do you care to offer any opinions as to why the Lakers are such an anomaly?

[iamgine]

Did you realize you've simply restated observations that the OP has already stated in this thread in the first place. Do you care to offer any opinions as to why the Lakers are such an anomaly?

They don't foul and they don't shoot much threes? Pretty simple if you watch games.

[beasted]

They don't foul and they don't shoot much threes? Pretty simple if you watch games.

I'm not trying to troll, but if their free throw differential is the highest wouldn't that INHERENTLY mean that they are fouling much less than their opponents? You've restated the OPs entire point by rephrasing it with new words, yet you're framing it as a reason.

To make an analogy:
OP: Team X has the highest point differential in the league
You: That's because typically opponents score less than them.

[iamgine]

I'm not trying to troll, but if their free throw differential is the highest wouldn't that INHERENTLY mean that they are fouling much less than their opponents? You've restated the OPs entire point by rephrasing it with new words, yet you're framing it as a reason.

To make an analogy:
OP: Team X has the highest point differential in the league
You: That's because typically opponents score less than them.

No, it can also mean other things such as the refs colluding to not call fouls.

Lakers just don't foul. Pretty simple if you watch games.

[ImKobe]

New Orleans takes 2 more threes per game (ranked 23rd), their opponents take one more three per game than the Laker’s opponents. So on your theory, they should be pretty comparable, right? After all “it adds up.”

Lakers have had 366 more FTAs than their opponents, which is 50% higher than the next ranked team. Meanwhile, the Pelicans have 122 more FTA’s than their opponents, which is 1/3rd of what the Lakers have. So the Lakers get an extra four FTAs per game in differential over the Pelicans because they shoot 2 fewer threes??? (Even though their opponents take one more three per game.). Try again.

2 FGA could = 4 extra FTs in theory sure. Also, take into account the defensive side of the ball when talking about shooting more FTA than their opponent because most players will not want to go at AD, and even if they do, AD is great at contesting shots without fouling.

[Duffy Pratt]

2 FGA could = 4 extra FTs in theory sure. Also, take into account the defensive side of the ball when talking about shooting more FTA than their opponent because most players will not want to go at AD, and even if they do, AD is great at contesting shots without fouling.

If ADs deterrent effect on D was the reason, then you might think the differential would decrease when AD sits out. This year, he’s missed only 4 games. In those games, the Lakers are plus, 5, 9, 7, and 19 FTAs. That’s 10 per game, which is 4 more per game than their average differential. Try again?

[Axe]

:milton

[Duffy Pratt]

In the last seven games, they have had the following differentials, all plus: 10, 3, 5, 11, 27!!, 15, 16.

League average for FTAs since the all-star break has been 16.9. In their current win streak, the Lakers are averaging 32.6 free throws per game. In the last four games, the free throw differential has been wider than the Lakers margin of victory.

[tpols]

In their current win streak, the Lakers are averaging 32.6 free throws per game. In the last four games, the free throw differential has been wider than the Lakers margin of victory.


That's actually insane and indefensible.

We been telling people most sports are WWE. Except maybe Hockey or Baseball.

[Duffy Pratt]

That's actually insane and indefensible.

We been telling people most sports are WWE. Except maybe Hockey or Baseball.

It’s thoroughly defensible. Right after the all-star break, the Lakers were getting 8-10 FTAs like everyone else. And they were losing. It looked like they might not even get into the play-in. I guess during that time, they started jacking up a lot of threes and stopped scoring in the paint?

Anyway, for their current streak, they seem to have gotten their mojo back and their getting their customary differential since, as LeBron puts it, “they foul, and we don’t.” The question is whether this streak will move them up into a more comfortable position. We know what will be best for ratings.

[bladefd]

In the last seven games, they have had the following differentials, all plus: 10, 3, 5, 11, 27!!, 15, 16.

League average for FTAs since the all-star break has been 16.9. In their current win streak, the Lakers are averaging 32.6 free throws per game. In the last four games, the free throw differential has been wider than the Lakers margin of victory.

It's clear to me you are just looking at the numbers without actually watching the games.

[8Ball]

MYTH BUSTED:



https://www.reddit.com/r/nba/comments/1bq20k4/zach_kram_the_lakers_conspiracy_that_isnt/



Had to repost, messed up the spelling in the title.

Anyway. This "the league is rigging things for the Lakers" conspiracy has always been goofy, but here's some good stats on the issue.

"Beyond a pernicious plot, moreover, there is ample reason to believe this Lakers team should draw many more fouls than it commits. On offense, the Lakers rank 29th in 3-point attempt rate, per CtG, and are tied for second in the rate of shots they attempt at the rim. (The team with the highest at-rim frequency is Orlando, which leads the league in free throw rate.) In other words, L.A. takes a larger proportion of its shots in the area most likely to draw foul calls.

And on defense, the opposite is true: The Lakers allow the fourth-lowest frequency of shots at the rim and the fifth-highest frequency of 3-pointers, meaning they funnel opposing teams into the sorts of shots that don’t draw fouls. Teams with similar defensive shot charts include the Celtics, who rank second in lowest opponent free throw rate, and the Heat, who rank fourth.

Put another way, the Lakers have taken 435 more free throws than their opponents this season—but they’ve taken 513 fewer 3-pointers (ahead of only the Bulls’ minus-535 margin). Given that not even 1 percent of 3-point attempts produce foul calls, that’s a gigantic number of extra shots on which the Lakers can draw contact."

But what about the size of the disparity? That is addressed as well.

"The free throw disparity kings of the 21st century are the 2017-18 Charlotte Hornets, who went 36-46 despite attempting a whopping 722 more free throws than their opponents. It’s hard to imagine that the league office concocted a conspiracy to help those Hornets, whose leading free throw takers were Kemba Walker, Dwight Howard, Jeremy Lamb, Frank Kaminsky, and Michael Kidd-Gilchrist. Clearly, there’s more to a large free throw disparity than player reputation or the whims of referees.

On a percentage basis, those Hornets attempted 48 percent more free throws than their opponents. For comparison, the 2022-23 Lakers were at plus-28 percent (which ranks 15th this century), and the 2023-24 Lakers are at plus-34 percent (which ranks ninth this century) with 10 games to go."

But no. The league is rigging things for the 9th seeded Lakers. Clearly

[Duffy Pratt]

It's clear to me you are just looking at the numbers without actually watching the games.

In this thread, for the most part, all I’ve done is present stats and comparative stats.

I have watched the games, but I don’t trust my eye test. I’ve hated the Lakers for too long to be a fair judge just with my eyes. The explanations people give, however, simply don’t withstand scrutiny. The Nuggets, for example shoot as few threes as the Lakers and score almost as much in the paint. But they rank near the bottom in FTAs while the Lakers are near the top. And if you want to do the eye test, look at the scratches on Jokers arms and compare that to anyone on the Lakers (Steph is the only one I see with similar scratches.)