It’s funny how we always think every series is over after game 1

[FultzNationRISE]

After every single game 1 the majority of the board is always pronouncing the series over for the losing team. And everyone is so sure about it :lol

Now we’re headed for two game 7’s and possibly a third.

And we’re all gonna do the exact same thing all over again next round :oldlol:

[SouBeachTalents]

And god forbid the road team wins Game 1, then it's really over. These fools never learn. I don't even react to 2-0 leads, I've seen teams come back from that countless times. To me, the series doesn't truly begin until Game 4.

[ImKobe]

It's always like this lol. I hate it just as much when people count one or the other team out in a series that's 2 - 2 or 2 - 3 based on the last game. Unless there's a devastating injury you should never say that a series is over until it's actually over, especially in this volatile 3PT shooting era. I've jumped the gun a few times in the past.

[ArbitraryWater]

Tbf the winner of Game 1 in the NBA has a pretty ****ing huge win rate, 75.6% (this is through the 2021 playoffs).

Much higher than in Baseball.

[Akeem34TheDream]

I will always change my narrative completely based on only last game. You are just being prisoner of the future.

[Overdrive]

Tbf the winner of Game 1 in the NBA has a pretty ****ing huge win rate, 75.6% (this is through the 2021 playoffs).

Much higher than in Baseball.

24% is a huge probability to bet against.

[ArbitraryWater]

24% is a huge probability to bet against.

What? :lol

Dont gaslight me on numbers man.

75% is overwhelming favorite status.


I agree with the sentiment of the OP, its always fun to see how series play out, how different it can be to our game 1 reactions.

But the numbers dont lie.

Game 1 winners go on to win 3/4 times.

Thats big.

[90sgoat]

Game 1 winners go on to win 3/4 times.

Thats big.

Except maybe in the cases where there's ref rigging.

[Overdrive]

What? :lol

Dont gaslight me on numbers man.

75% is overwhelming favorite status.


I agree with the sentiment of the OP, its always fun to see how series play out, how different it can be to our game 1 reactions.

But the numbers dont lie.

Game 1 winners go on to win 3/4 times.

Thats big.

Gaslight on numbers? On average on a normalized set the prediction is wrong for 1 CSF series every year. So if you were to bet on the makeup of the CFs after g1 of each series and you'd bet on the winner of those games you'd almost always lose your wager. That's no gaslightning. 25% for the negative event is of huge statistical significance.

I'm not saying 25% > 75%. That would be gaslighting. What I'm saying is that if you bet on the g1 winner everytime you're wrong very often.

[tpols]

What? :lol

Dont gaslight me on numbers man.

75% is overwhelming favorite status.


I agree with the sentiment of the OP, its always fun to see how series play out, how different it can be to our game 1 reactions.

But the numbers dont lie.

Game 1 winners go on to win 3/4 times.

Thats big.


That % is including series where one team is the overwhelming favorite and pretty much guaranteed to win or sweep. For teams that are evenly matched Game 1 doesn't mean much. Dallas lost both Game 1s this year.

[tpols]

Lebron also lost Game 1 in 3/4 of his rings to OKC, Spurs, and Golden State.

[ArbitraryWater]

Gaslight on numbers? On average on a normalized set the prediction is wrong for 1 CSF series every year. So if you were to bet on the makeup of the CFs after g1 of each series and you'd bet on the winner of those games you'd almost always lose your wager. That's no gaslightning. 25% for the negative event is of huge statistical significance.

I'm not saying 25% > 75%. That would be gaslighting. What I'm saying is that if you bet on the g1 winner everytime you're wrong very often.

You know whats huge statistical significance?

76%.


If you thought 24% is big, wait til you found out about 76%....



:lol


If you bet on the game 1 winner every time, youre gonna make money. Thanks for proving my point.

[ArbitraryWater]

That % is including series where one team is the overwhelming favorite and pretty much guaranteed to win or sweep. For teams that are evenly matched Game 1 doesn't mean much. Dallas lost both Game 1s this year.

That I will agree with. But what are we gonna call an evenly matched series? Game 1 of course can really have a lot to do with if a series will be evenly matched or not.

[tpols]

You know whats huge statistical significance?

76%.


If you thought 24% is big, wait til you found out about 76%....



:lol


If you bet on the game 1 winner every time, youre gonna make money. Thanks for proving my point.

That's not true because your odds on say Celtics vs Heat with no Jimmy Butler or Cavs without Donovan Mitchell are going to be like +500. Meaning you only make like 18 dollars on a 100 dollar bet. So even if you win 76% of the time the payout is gonna be so small that one single upset would wipe your winnings out.

[Overdrive]

You know whats huge statistical significance?

76%.


If you thought 24% is big, wait til you found out about 76%....



:lol


If you bet on the game 1 winner every time, youre gonna make money. Thanks for proving my point.

Would you bet your life on something that fails 1 in 4 times in an 1 off event?

[Norcaliblunt]

Would you bet your life on something that fails 1 in 4 times in an 1 off event?

I read somewhere that over 50% of marriages fail and end in divorce. So yeah a lot of people bet their lives on things with worse odds.

[jayfan]

After every single game 1 the majority of the board is always pronouncing the series over for the losing team. And everyone is so sure about it :lol

Now we’re headed for two game 7’s and possibly a third.

And we’re all gonna do the exact same thing all over again next round :oldlol:


I thought NY/Ind was going 7, even when it was 2-0. But when Minny went up 2-0 on the road, as dominantly as they did, I thought it was over. I knew Denver would bounce back in game 3, but did not expect them to take 4 & 5, as well. That 4-day layoff between games 2 & 3 allowed them to basically conduct a minicamp and totally regroup. Game 7 should be very interesting.

.

[ArbitraryWater]

That's not true because your odds on say Celtics vs Heat with no Jimmy Butler or Cavs without Donovan Mitchell are going to be like +500. Meaning you only make like 18 dollars on a 100 dollar bet. So even if you win 76% of the time the payout is gonna be so small that one single upset would wipe your winnings out.


How do you know?

As you said yourself, there are plenty of even series. If we take away the big favorite ones, we still prob have a good 60% at least.

Either way, even without looking at it from a monetary perspective, 3/4 series being won by the game 1 winner speaks a clear language.

No ifs and buts about it.

[ArbitraryWater]

Would you bet your life on something that fails 1 in 4 times in an 1 off event?

Of course I wouldnt, what are you blabbering about though? :lol

What does this premise, me not betting my life on a 75% chance, prove for you now?

It does absolutely nothing to change the fact that 76% is overwhelming.

[Norcaliblunt]

Honestly the playoffs should just be a one and done tournament.

Screw all this time and multiple chances for teams to make adjustments and exploit shit.

The best teams and players win the fricking first game. That’s the way I look at it. If you get caught slipping that’s on you. You weren’t good enough. None of this feeling teams out, having weeks and multiple games to adjust. That’s weak and doesn’t prove anything about which team is better. Especially in a series that goes 7 games.

[warriorfan]

That % is including series where one team is the overwhelming favorite and pretty much guaranteed to win or sweep. For teams that are evenly matched Game 1 doesn't mean much. Dallas lost both Game 1s this year.

very good point

[Axe]

Lebron also lost Game 1 in 3/4 of his rings to OKC, Spurs, and Golden State.
He often does lose in game 1s, not just in the finals. Lmao.

[Overdrive]

Of course I wouldnt, what are you blabbering about though? :lol

What does this premise, me not betting my life on a 75% chance, prove for you now?

It does absolutely nothing to change the fact that 76% is overwhelming.

76% is overwhelming and 24% is big enough a chance to be wrong very very often. That's what it proves.