Why I believe Bill Russell would've been just as good in today's NBA

[Im Still Ballin]

Yes, the modern style of play with the three-point shot and rules would suppress his defensive impact in absolute terms. But I also feel that he'd be a better offensive player today because the rules and style of play in his day suppressed his offensive strengths. These skills primarily being his pick-and-roll finishing, ball handling, and playmaking.

I think his improvements in offense offset his defense being nerfed.

And don't get me wrong, he'd still be GOAT-level on defense. If Rudy Gobert and Kevin Garnett can have modern seasons (2004-05 onward) of defensive RAPM and defensive one-number metrics in that +5 to +7 per 100 possession range, Bill can too. Maybe even a little bit more because he had it all: no weaknesses, shot-blocking like Hakeem/D-Rob, and defensive rebounding like Rodman. Here's a great breakdown of his defense from the poster Dipper 13, who tracked hundreds of Bill Russell possessions:


Dipper 13 wrote:
His ability to block/alter shots AND clean the defensive boards. Based on the available (limited) video footage (http://forums.realgm.com/boards/viewtopic.php?f=64&t=1253918), he was 7% in shot blocking percentage and roughly 36% in defensive rebounding percentage. To be that dominant in either one of those areas is something, but to be that dominant in both? Keep in mind how shot blocking tends to take you out of proper rebounding position. Below are the career leaders for block percentage and defensive rebounding percentage. To think Russell might be near or at the top on both of these lists is amazing.

http://www.basketball-reference.com/leaders/blk_pct_career.html

http://www.basketball-reference.com/leaders/drb_pct_career.html

He was basically rebounding the defensive glass like Rodman and blocking shots like Hakeem/Robinson. You talk about a guy who not only doesn't have a defensive weakness, but is so dominant at virtually every area on that side, that is Bill Russell.

Plus he may the be the best at keeping his hands up on defense, even after jumping. This is something you rarely see with contemporary big men. Below we can see how Russell keeps his arms up when defending after a fake, both in a practice drill and in playoff competition vs. Willis Reed. Have we ever seen such a fundamentally sound defensive player since?


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0cxnVdpVm4o

Russell also had the best reflexes of any player ever at any position and a unique shot blocking style where he used his wrist to deflect shots rather than swat it out of bounds. Very seldom have we seen other big men do this with the same consistency.

https://i.ibb.co/3Md2mrQ/UzgVU-d.webp

https://i.ibb.co/YPnFLHk/3h691.png

https://i.ibb.co/DwWxHvZ/ju2qS.png


Some might think a 7% block percentage and 36% defensive rebounding percentage at the same time isn't possible but Rudy Gobert has been close. 2020-21: 7% BLK and 33.5% DRB; 2021-22: 5.7% BLK and 36.3% DRB. Combined, that's 6.4% BLK and 34.9% DRB. Ben Wallace and Dwight Howard have some seasons/playoff runs that are relatively close.

And as for Bill's offense? I think +2 to +4 per 100 possession kind of impact is possible. Imagine a prime Deandre Jordan roll-man game with 200-250+ dunks per season, plus the ball handling and playmaking of guys like Draymond Green, Joakim Noah, Giannis Antetokoumpo, and Domantas Sabonis.

11-13 highly efficient roll-man points from PnR finishes, cuts, post-up seals, and offensive rebounds. The added dynamics of the ball handling and passing open up alternative creation pathways in transition and in the short roll and hand-off actions.

But the big swing skill would be face-up slashing in the half-court setting. In isolation and as a PnR ball handler. Think Giannis. Most players need a perimeter shot to make this work but when you're a big man and have a freakish combination of size, athleticism, and ball handling, you can be an exception. You can force the issue and get to the rim. Today's three-point shooting, spaced-out defense style of play, and dribbling, carrying, and traveling rules have made that far easier to accomplish.

All up, I could see his offensive numbers bleeding out to something between 16-24 ppg and 6-8 apg with 55-60% FG and TS% ranging from 58-62. Add that onto 14-17 rpg, 1.5-2.0 spg, and 3-4 bpg and you've got a defensively-slanted two-way all-time great.

I even think there's an argument his free-throw shooting could improve a little due to equipment advancements. Standardized rims, backboards, controlled arena temperature, and a game ball with eight panels and better grip. Fun fact: league-wide FT% went up when they switched to the eight-panel ball. I'll give Russ 60% FT at best. He shot 56.8% FT across his career. 77.8 FT+. Adjusted for today's league average free-throw shooting (78.4) that's 60.9% FT.

[iamgine]

Are we talking if he grew up today or if he's time traveled?

Cause he had terrible FG% and terrible FT%. Not to mention he had never heard of a three point line. How long until he learn the schemes and unlearn lifelong habits specific to that era?

Just as good as he was might be a big stretch. He'd still be pretty good might be a better way of putting it.

[dankok8]

Russell was also a very good passer especially as his career progressed and he could handle the ball. On offense I can see him sort of like KG getting the ball in the high post then facilitating from there. He had a quick first step compared to KG but a weaker jumper. Oh and dude would be a nightmare in transition with his speed and finishing lobs. Yea I can see Russell averaging 20 ppg on good efficiency if he grew up today. No doubt about it but I think that's around his ceiling volume wise. He never had the skills to be a superstar scorer and didn't even have much of a post game at a time when good offensive bigs used the post as their bread and butter.

Overall even though I think he's the GOAT he'd be worse today just because he can't exert that level of defensive impact with so much perimeter shooting and that was the real thing that pushed his value through the roof.

[Kblaze8855]

Even if he were as “good” he wouldn’t provide the evolutionary leap in terms of teams and players trying to win with defense that he did at the time. Even if he were precisely as good, he wouldn’t have the advantage of so many other teams and players being stupid Enough to disregard that end of the floor like they did for a while. That played a major role in the Celtics success. Hard to overestimate being a generation ahead of the curve.

[L.Kizzle]

He's a mixture of Bam and Dray Green.

[Wally450]

He's a mixture of Bam and Dray Green.

I'd add in a little bit of Robert Williams as well.

[Phoenix]

I don't see how we can make any serious assumptions of what kind of player he would be in todays game. He obviously would have a different skillset entering the league in 2020 than he did in 1958 or whatever. He would have had 70 years of centers/bigs to draw from. Maybe he becomes a Garnett type? Draymond? Giannis? Isn't he more or less KD's size, give or take an inch? Maybe he's more offensive-oriented than defense? Maybe he's average to decent at best? Who really knows? The way the game is played nowadays, nobody asides from what we're expecting Wembeyama to be in a few years will control outcomes of a game to the degree Russell anchored two fistfuls of rings off defensive impact.

[Im Still Ballin]

I'd add in a little bit of Robert Williams as well.

Good call. RW3 and Russ share some similarities with regard to anthropometry and athleticism. Specifically, arm length, standing reach, explosive jumping ability, and lateral movement. Rob I believe is 6'8" barefoot with a 9'4" standing reach and had a 40-44" vertical when healthy. Bill is like a two-inch taller version of that.

https://x.com/p3sportscience/status/1009124980523597825?lang=en

[nayte]

I don't see how we can make any serious assumptions of what kind of player he would be in todays game. He obviously would have a different skillset entering the league in 2020 than he did in 1958 or whatever. He would have had 70 years of centers/bigs to draw from. Maybe he becomes a Garnett type? Draymond? Giannis? Isn't he more or less KD's size, give or take an inch? Maybe he's more offensive-oriented than defense? Maybe he's average to decent at best? Who really knows? The way the game is played nowadays, nobody asides from what we're expecting Wembeyama to be in a few years will control outcomes of a game to the degree Russell anchored two fistfuls of rings off defensive impact.

You have pretty much laid out why all these comparisons are kinda pointless

[Im Still Ballin]

Imagine Bill in these types of plays. Would be very effective. It's one thing for a PF like Draymond or Ben Simmons to do it but imagine if your big, hyper-athletic center could? Imagine a prime Deandre Jordan/Dwight Howard/Rudy Gobert roller that could add this dynamic to their game, along with not only the finishing but passing as well.

In 2018-19, Ben Simmons averaged 16.9 ppg on 58.2% TS (104 TS+) and 56.6% 2PT (109 2PT+) with 4.4 ppg coming from transition. In the following season (2019-20), he put up 16.4 ppg on 60.2% TS (107 TS+) and 58.3% 2PT (111 2PT+) with 5.0 ppg coming from transition. He was basically a transition playmaking guard + a rim-runner/athletic guy with playmaking chops in the half-court.

This was all done despite a poor fit. You wonder how his game and his numbers might've looked like playing with a floor-spacing center that doesn't preoccupy the paint. Say, a player like Brook Lopez, Marc Gasol, or Myles Turner.

Bill would be far easier to fit into and play this archetype. Easier to find shooters/complimentary players from the forward and guard positions. And he'd be infinitely more effective, both in transition and in the half-court because he's way more of a physical mismatch due to his size and athleticism, both in absolute terms but also relative to his position.

The difference between Ben Simmons and Giannis as scoring threats both in transition and half-court play simply comes down to size and athleticism. Neither has an outside shot worth anything, and they're both strong ball handlers and passers. Nor do they have much in the way of finesse/skill. And it's not the free-throw shooting ability either.

It's purely the fact that Giannis is functionally bigger (wingspan, standing reach, stride length, hand size) and a better athlete. And Ben is no slouch athletically.

Is it really that outlandish to think Bill could land somewhere between them?


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=41sDICfHVlo&ab_channel=CoachFrikki

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Py5R9kRV0D8

[Phoenix]

You have pretty much laid out why all these comparisons are kinda pointless

Yeah, I don't engage in the whole 'what would player X do in player Ys era?' thing, especially 60 years apart. We really have no clue what skillset Player X develops coming along today. And the reverse is also true, nobody in 2020 in playing the same way in 1970. They'd be completely different players, different skillsets, attributes, different nutrition/training and playing under totally different rules. Which is also why I've learned to steer clear of the whole GOAT thing and adopted a tiered approach based on how players dominated their respective eras. Bill Russell with 5 MVPs and 11 Rings as the anchor for his teams is a Tier 1 player, doesn't make sense to me trying to apply these mental gymnastics for things we can't possibly have a hope of knowing. No offense intended to the OP....

[Im Still Ballin]

You have to learn how to break up your paragraphs homie. It's hard to get a point across when you structure your prose like shit.

[dankok8]

Imagine Bill in these types of plays. Would be very effective. It's one thing for a PF like Draymond or Ben Simmons to do it but imagine if your big, hyper-athletic center could? Imagine a prime Deandre Jordan/Dwight Howard/Rudy Gobert roller that could add this dynamic to their game, along with not only the finishing but passing as well.

In 2018-19, Ben Simmons averaged 16.9 ppg on 58.2% TS (104 TS+) and 56.6% 2PT (109 2PT+) with 4.4 ppg coming from transition. In the following season (2019-20), he put up 16.4 ppg on 60.2% TS (107 TS+) and 58.3% 2PT (111 2PT+) with 5.0 ppg coming from transition. He was basically a transition playmaking guard + a rim-runner/athletic guy with playmaking chops in the half-court.

This was all done despite a poor fit. You wonder how his game and his numbers might've looked like playing with a floor-spacing center that doesn't preoccupy the paint. Say, a player like Brook Lopez, Marc Gasol, or Myles Turner.

Bill would be far easier to fit into and play this archetype. Easier to find shooters/complimentary players from the forward and guard positions. And he'd be infinitely more effective, both in transition and in the half-court because he's way more of a physical mismatch due to his size and athleticism, both in absolute terms but also relative to his position.

The difference between Ben Simmons and Giannis as scoring threats both in transition and half-court play simply comes down to size and athleticism. Neither has an outside shot worth anything, and they're both strong ball handlers and passers. Nor do they have much in the way of finesse/skill. And it's not the free-throw shooting ability either.

It's purely the fact that Giannis is functionally bigger (wingspan, standing reach, stride length, hand size) and a better athlete. And Ben is no slouch athletically.

Is it really that outlandish to think Bill could land somewhere between them?


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=41sDICfHVlo&ab_channel=CoachFrikki

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Py5R9kRV0D8

There's more and more Russell footage that I've watched recently (mostly from 70sFan Patreon) and boy oh boy he's quite a multitalented player even though he doesn't have the kind of attributes most flashy on offense. His post game is pretty rudimentary and he's not a good jump shooter. But there is more than meets the eye so I'll break down the good parts of his offensive game.

Russell does have some serious offensive strengths:
- can handle the ball (think KG or Draymond)
- can pass very very well including on the move (think Draymond)
- amazing lob threat with his size, speed and athleticism (think Gobert)
- has a really quick first step to blow by guys (think Giannis)
- monster on the offensive glass
- beast at setting screens

Like I said in an earlier post, he's not a superstar scorer by any stretch but ~20-22 ppg on good efficiency and ~6 apg is quite likely. More is possible because there is just a lot of uncertainty.

[Im Still Ballin]

There's more and more Russell footage that I've watched recently (mostly from 70sFan Patreon) and boy oh boy he's quite a multitalented player even though he doesn't have the kind of attributes most flashy on offense. His post game is pretty rudimentary and he's not a good jump shooter. But there is more than meets the eye so I'll break down the good parts of his offensive game.

Russell does have some serious offensive strengths:
- can handle the ball (think KG or Draymond)
- can pass very very well including on the move (think Draymond)
- amazing lob threat with his size, speed and athleticism (think Gobert)
- has a really quick first step to blow by guys (think Giannis)
- monster on the offensive glass
- beast at setting screens

Like I said in an earlier post, he's not a superstar scorer by any stretch but ~20-22 ppg on good efficiency and ~6 apg is quite likely. More is possible because there is just a lot of uncertainty.

That more or less sounds like the type of offensive guy I'd envision him. He would perfectly fit that "dominant defender, secondary offensive option" best player on the team archetype that Ben Taylor has talked about. Showing most likeness to KG and D-Rob.

Switch Sabonis out for him and the Kings would instantly become very strong contenders. Hard to put an SRS or win total on it but good odds for 60+ wins. He'd play that DHO hub role effortlessly while anchoring and significantly elevating the defense into elite status.

[Phoenix]

You have to learn how to break up your paragraphs homie. It's hard to get a point across when you structure your prose like shit.

If it's me you're referring to, I'm on my phone usually posting and couldn't be bothered formatting my paragraphs, my bad. I don't generally tend to waste much energy on proper grammar on this site of all places, anyways.