Was pre-injury Ben Simmons talented enough to win an MVP on the right team?

[Im Still Ballin]

I know this topic sounds outrageous because of who he has become post-Philly. But bear with me on this.

Simmons was a three-time All-Star, one-time All-NBA third team, and two-time All-Defense first-team player. Finished fourth and runner-up in the Defensive Player of the Year award. All accomplished in four seasons.

He had serious limitations but was clearly an impact player who brought significant value on defense and in transition while being a mixed bag in the half-court. His size, ball handling, and passing allowed him to be somewhat effective as a finisher in ball screening, cutting, and hand-off actions.

But I think it was obvious how bad a fit Philly was for his game. I wonder what his numbers and impact could've looked like in an ideal circumstance where he doesn't have to share the paint with Embiid. Joel's game suffered but not nearly as much because he could still leverage his post-up, mid-range, foul-drawing, and general size inside.

I feel like Ben could've been a 20 ppg, 10 rpg, 10 apg, 58-60% FG, 60+% TS guy on a team with the perfect scheme and personnel for his game. He wasn't that far off it in his three All-Star seasons ('19, '20, '21) combined (16 ppg, 8.0 rpg, 7.6 apg on 56.6% FG and 58.9%TS) despite the very poor fit for his game.

Put him on a faster-paced team where he can dominate the ball and has complimentary players? Those numbers are realistic. And that team could win and give him a strong enough MVP narrative. Something akin to a Jason Kidd, Steve Nash, Derrick Rose type of MVP campaign. Definitely not the best player in the NBA but everything aligns for a strong case for MVP.

[Im Still Ballin]

So, this is what I'm asking you: 1) was pre-injury Ben Simmons talented enough to win an MVP? and 2) Regardless of your answer, design the optimal pre-injury Ben Simmons team that maximizes his talent, ability, and impact. Use players from 2017-2021. An roughly averaged-out version of them.

I've thought about it and the team needs a few things:

a) A center that can shoot threes to space the floor and open up the paint for Ben.
b) As much shooting as possible. Spot-up and movement/off-screen.
c) A fast-paced, early-offense game plan with an aggressive turnover-generating defense.
d) A secondary playmaker and shot-creator to allow Ben to play off-ball at times and be a shot-maker in the clutch.

Here's my starting lineup: (I've averaged the player salaries over four years from 2018-2021)

Ben Simmons (12.82m); Alex Caruso (1.5m to 2m)
Mike Conley (31.52m); Kentavious Caldwell-Pope (12.48m)
Danny Green (12.49m); Justice Winslow (8.04m)
Robert Covington (12.65m); Mike Muscala (3.58m)
Myles Turner (10.24m); Dewayne Dedmon (7.35m)

[2018-2021 salary cap average: 104.81m]

That starting lineup costs 79.72m and leaves me with 25.09m for the bench. That bench puts me a little over the cap. About 8m.

I chose Turner over Lopez and Gasol because he's cheaper, more mobile/able to switch. I thought about Conley, Lowry, Dragic, and Jrue for the secondary playmaker and shot creator. And Green and Covington are two good 3 and D players from the swing-man and forward spots. I feel like they allow us to switch, roam, generate turnovers, and get out in transition.

[1987_Lakers]

Hell no.

[ShawkFactory]

Not being able to shoot at all is an automatic out. He could have been an excellent piece for a great team if things went differently but for the most part you have to be able to do it all to be an MVP caliber player. And if you don’t do it all you have to be great at a few things and generationally great at one of those things, i.e Steph, Magic, and Nash.

Even young Lebron with a relatively broken jumper could go out every other game and make a bunch of shots. Simmons couldn’t do that at all.

[SouBeachTalents]

Hell nah.

[Real Men Wear Green]

No, he was not.

Ideal pre-meltdown team:

PG: Jrue Holiday
SG: Klay Thompson
SF: Andrew Wiggins
PF: Simmons
C: Kristaps Porzingis

I don't think that team has a truly great shot creator but the defense would be the best and I figured we shouldn't put anyone on the team that would be clearly more valuable than Simmons.

[Im Still Ballin]

Three stretches where Ben played maybe the best basketball of his NBA career:

1) The 16-game win streak in 2017-18

Ben averaged 14.0 ppg, 9.8 rpg, 10.4 apg, 1.9 spg, 0.8 bpg, 3.0 tpg while shooting 59.1% FG and a plus-minus of +13.3 per game on average. Admittedly, the 76ers faced an easy schedule but 9 of these games were without Joel. Ben's scoring went up a little (15.3 ppg on 62.9% FG) in these games.


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bCKHtSUFNbo

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QU2TKMGaIdA

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=n5TxLhPOYng

[Im Still Ballin]

2) December to February of the 2019-20 NBA season

Before injury shut him down for the season, Ben was playing some of the best basketball of his career. He averaged 19.6 ppg, 8.7 rpg, 8.3 apg, 2.2 spg, 0.6 bpg on 59.6% FG and 62.2% TS over 29 games between 2019-12-13 and 2020-02-11. His play was getting better and better up until the injury. Over the last 19 games of that stretch, Ben averaged 21.3 ppg, 9.4 rpg, 7.9 apg, 2.2 spg, 0.5 bpg on 61.6% FG and 64.2% TS.


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=T48iM5LEXWA

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lSdKivNskRc

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1QJrrIMZam4

[Im Still Ballin]

3) January to March of the 2020-21 NBA season

Over 20 games between 2021-01-22 and 2021-03-16, Ben averaged 18.5 ppg, 7.2 rpg, 7.4 apg, 1.5 spg, 0.5 bpg, 2.9 topg on 62.1% FG and 64.5% TS. Philadelphia went 14-6 in these games and included Ben's career-high 42-point, 9-rebound, 12-assist performance against reigning DPOY Rudy Gobert and the Utah Jazz.


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EbezMUTAtg8

[iamgine]

If the top 20 player died in a plane crash then 2018 Ben Simmons would have a pretty good chance to win MVP.

[Im Still Ballin]

For what it's worth, Philly was a winning team every year Ben was there. Despite a poor fit and roster/personnel decisions, and Joel constantly missing large chunks of the season. They were 35-7 with Joel and Ben in 2020-21 when they secured the #1 seed in the Eastern Conference.

I was told they'd become instant contenders once they replaced him with a guy who could shoot. I guess James Harden and the emergence of Tyrese Maxey weren't enough. We'll see how Paul George goes. The best they've looked was the 2019 Playoffs, and when healthy in the 2020-21 season, 2022-23 season, and 2023-24 seasons. Not sure which was best.

With Ben:

2017-18: 52-30; 4.3 SRS (5th)
2018-19: 51-31; 2.25 SRS (11th)
2019-20: 43-30; 2.25 SRS (12th)
2020-21: 49-23; 5.28 SRS (5th)

Without Ben:

2021-22: 51-31; 2.57 SRS (9th)
2022-23: 54-28; 4.37 SRS (3rd)
2023-24: 47-35; 2.51 SRS (11th)

[beasted]

No. Terrible leader, terrible work ethic, useless without the ball, useless being forced into half court sets, afraid to shoot, afraid to go to the FT line.

Aligning Simmons with MVP caliber is no different than suggesting Tyreke Evans could have been better than Westbrook in the right circumstance. It's just reaching too strongly and saying everything perfectly aligns which rarely happens in the NBA.

[DJMcDonald]

:roll:

[Reggie43]

Lamar Odom was the guy that I thought was talented enough to be MVP caliber on the right team and the right mindset.

Legit guard skills while having the size and length of a bigman I thought he was the guy that could have averaged a triple double for a season.

[Real Men Wear Green]

When you consider how much he accomplished while doing coke you may be right.

[Im Still Ballin]

Ben compares favorably when you consider he had the weakest versions of Joel:


Joel Embiid + Jimmy Butler: 28-12 (70%)
Joel Embiid + Ben Simmons: 144-63 (69.57%)
Joel Embiid + Tyrese Maxey: 133-57 (70.0%)
Joel Embiid + James Harden: 48-24 (66.67%)

[Im Still Ballin]

Very nice.


Regular season + playoffs:

Joel Embiid + Jimmy Butler: 34-17 (66.7%)
Joel Embiid + Ben Simmons: 160-77 (67.5%)
Joel Embiid + Tyrese Maxey: 152-74 (67.3%)
Joel Embiid + James Harden: 59-32 (64.8%)

[Im Still Ballin]

People really overexaggerated the whole "playing 4-on-5 offense" thing. They acted as if the 76ers would immediately and dramatically improve once they found an adequate replacement who could shoot. But basketball is a bit more complicated than that.

Ben was a valuable player that impacted the game in a variety of ways. What they gained in shooting and spacing they lost in defense, size, rebounding, and transition play. There's always a tradeoff.

[RRR3]

No one said Ben wasn't good, people are just laughing at your absurd declaration that he could win an MVP

[Im Still Ballin]

Jason Kidd almost won an MVP over prime Tim Duncan and Shaquille O'Neal while averaging 14.7 ppg, 7.3 rpg, 9.9 apg, and 2.1 spg on 39.1% FG and 48.4% TS (93 TS+). Steve Nash won an MVP while putting up 15.5 ppg, 3.3 rpg, 11.5 apg, 1.0 on 50.2% FG and 60.6% TS (114 TS+).

Do those look like numbers outside the scope of pre-injury Ben Simmons? One couldn't shoot and the other couldn't defend.

Hell, Joakim Noah finished fourth in the 2014 MVP while averaging even fewer points per game. Now, he wasn't going to win in that season, but that's not the point. This is (read carefully and remember this):


Winning the MVP is as much about narrative as it is about how good or impactful a player is. And how good or impactful a player is isn't just dependent on talent or ability but also circumstance. Personnel, scheme, coaching, role - these all influence what a player does on the court. And what their perception is.

The backstory on Joakim Noah's MVP buzz in 2014:


Some extra context regarding the 2014 season:

- Started the season 12-18
- The offense was guard-centric
- Noah became more of a focal point on offense/ran through him
- Finished the season 36-15 (58 win-pace)
- Team offensive rating jumped +5 points
- Averaged 13.6 ppg, 11.9 rpg, 6.5 apg, 1.3 spg, 1.7 bpg on 2.7 topg (54.05% TS)


I will agree though that peak Noah deserves his respect for what he accomplished that season on 2013-14. That season's Bulls team was traaaaaaash. Look at this roster: https://www.basketball-reference.com.../CHI/2014.html

I would nearly equate it to Draymond having to play with no Curry and no Klay, since Deng and Rose were out. It started terribly, with the Bulls sitting at 12-18 30 games into the season. Thibs was basically still trying to run his Rose-centric offense with replacement parts, and it sucked.

At that point, Thibs basically said "This is Noah's team", and changed the whole scheme to run through him.

Noah's Bulls from there forward went 36-16, their offensive rating improved by almost 5 points, their defense stayed league-leading, and Noah averaged 13.5/12/7 the rest of the way, with 8 games of 10+ assists. Top of the league in most advanced stats, rightfully won the DPOY, first team all-NBA, all-star, and earned himself those MVP votes (4th place).

So if you wanted to say "I think Noah 2013-14 season was better individually than any of Dray's seasons", I wouldn't argue with that. Noah proved he was a floor-raiser and competitor even with his stars out, something Dray did not do when given the chance in 2019-20 in a similar situation.

However, this does also ignore the coaching and front office, with Thibs/Bulls pushing to win and Kerr/Warriors embracing the tank.

And no matter what, I'm pretty sure winning ANOTHER championship with everyone healthy this past year kind of absolves the shitty 19-20 season. Dray has nothing to prove to anyone at this point.


After starting 15 different lineups in the first 33 games of the season, they've only started four in the 45 games since. The starting five of Kirk Hinrich, Jimmy Butler, Mike Dunleavy, Carlos Boozer and Noah have now started 21 consecutive games. That's the longest run of the same starting five in the Thibodeau era.

Health is a big part, but it also has a lot to do with Noah's expanding skills. Thibodeau redesigned the offense to go through Noah from the elbow, and his remarkable passing ability for a big man was put on full display.

Noah has six 11-assist games since Feb 6, a 30-game stretch. All other NBA centers combined have only 27 such games in the last 30 years.

And, in the more important aspect of winning, the Bulls have turned around in the re-imagined offense. Since the Luol Deng trade, they are 32-14, the best record in the Eastern Conference. The only team in the NBA with more wins in that span is the San Antonio Spurs.

Noah also took over the transition game, which is better explained by this fantastic compilation, courtesy of Sports Illustrated’s Rob Mahoney, than by words alone.

The Bulls have had the best defense in the NBA over that span. And while their offense is still only the 25th most efficient, it’s notching 5.5 more points per 100 possessions since being run through Noah. And, both the offense and the defense are close to two points per 100 possessions better when Noah’s on the court.

Noah has established himself as something no one thought he could be—a player who can carry a contender. The winning speaks for itself. As a result, he’s not only emerged as a top-five candidate for MVP, he’s made “point center” a term in the process.

Here’s perhaps the most remarkable summation of Noah’s achievement this year: He has 956 points, 398 assists and 849 rebounds. In the history of the NBA, the only other centers to do that are Wilt Chamberlain, Kareem Abdul-Jabbar and Bill Russell. That’s what we in basketball circles refer to as "elite company."

It seems to me that Ben Simmons was/is the type of player and personality that casual NBA fans have an emotional and at times irrational hatred for. And it affects their ability to be impartial, unbiased, and display critical thinking skills.

And apparently comprehension skills. I suggest you read the thread title carefully, RRR3.

[Im Still Ballin]

Thanks to the RGM poster Rastas for mentioning the four playoff games Ben Simmons played without Joel Embiid. I'll add this to the thread as it's another piece of evidence that supports the argument made in this thread, emphasizing the poor fit with Embiid and Philly.

Ben Simmons played four playoff games without Joel Embiid. Games 1 and 2 of the ECFR in 2018, Game 3 of the ECFR in 2019, and Game 5 of the ECFR in 2021. The 76ers won three of those games. He averaged 22.8 ppg, 8.0 rpg, 10.5 apg, 1.3 spg, 1.8 bpg, and 3.5 topg on 61.1% FG, 71.4% FT, and 65.6% TS.


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hbDgiFOLub8


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dz4f5mikiGI

[Im Still Ballin]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zMX0-TAQUUU


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9lidiHIoNaA

[nayte]

He would have been MVP worthy if he kept on improving like he should have.
He is getting shit on now but that's on him