Im Still Ballin
08-09-2024, 09:32 PM
Not enough is made about defensive rebounding and not fouling on defense. Second-chance points and free throws are statistically the most valuable half-court offensive opportunities in the game.
According to Cleaning the Glass, the average put-back is worth 1.123 points per play. I'm not sure if this includes transition put-backs or just half-court ones. For comparison, the average half-court play is worth 0.987 points per play. This number excludes the 1.123 points per play from the put-backs.
And of course, with the league average free-throw percentage being .784, the free throws are worth 1.568 points per possession.
Anybody who knows about general RAPM numbers remembers how guys like Jason Collins and Nene always had significant defensive marks despite uninspiring box score numbers. This was because both guys had supreme defensive rebounding impact due to proper fundamentals and boxing out. Their teams always rebounded way better on defense when they were on the court versus off it. They also had a solid effect on suppressing opponent free-throw rates.
Nene is in an archetype of big that is wildly undervalued by fans and NBA teams. He's a center who was an average-ish rim protector. He has decent rim deterrence numbers for his career. How could an average rim protector big be so high up on this DRAPM list?
Let's take a quick look at his four factor on/offs for his career:
https://gyazo.com/3f3065ab615d131e1b14a8a133eca74f
What do you notice? Well for one that he has many years of mega elite rebounding on/offs. Much better defensive rebounding will hurt the opposing teams offense because they get less easy putbacks. He did this despite having a low amount of defensive rebounds for a center, which some people may find strange.
Here's an excerpt from an interview Nene did with Zach Lowe:
People with this team say you don’t care about stats. That you don’t even look at them. Some players say they don’t care about stats, but the Wizards people say you actually mean it. You really don’t care?
No, I don’t care about stats. I really don’t. I care about winning and losing. I actually care more when I lose because, you know, I always look for what I can do better, where I made a mistake, where the team made a mistake.
Here’s a stat I’ve always wanted to ask you about: Your teams always rebound better when you are on the floor, but you get a lot of criticism for not getting a lot of rebounds yourself.
I know, I know!
But it happens every year, in terms of team rebounding. What’s going on there?
If I don’t box out, if I try to steal the ball from my teammates, I could average 13 rebounds or 14 rebounds per game. But I learned the right way. I learned to box out, respect each side of the hoop. There’s a reason we have better rebounding when I play, because I know the fundamentals.
Did you know about that stat?
Yeah, yeah, I think I heard that.
So it’s just about boxing out.
Exactly — not only on the low block, but in the whole paint. The guys outside have to box out, so the little guys don’t surprise you down there.
You do notice a lot of players just sort of stand under the rim, kind of boxing out an area, instead of finding a player to box out.
That’s the way they learn. It’s not that way in the international schools.
He also had an above average steal rate whereas a lot of elite rim protectors not only have low steal rates but they play a style of defense that results in teammates forcing less turnovers than they normally do. So, the combination of good rim deterrence, the ability to force turnovers at an above average rate, and elite team defensive rebounding numbers made Nene lineups very very good defensively. It's kind of insane his lineups had so much success on the defensive glass when Nene has never even averaged 6 defensive rebounds per game. It really drives home the point that boxing out is incredibly valuable.
Additionally, steals and deflections are more valuable than blocks because they're more likely to lead to the defense gaining possession of the ball. Considering the average transition play following a steal is worth a whopping 1.393 points per play, this value is magnified in today's offense-slanted league.
Exceptional team defensive rebounding impact, a low opponent free-throw rate, and above-average steals and deflections help explain why Nikola Jokic appears a plus defender on many advanced statistics and RAPM numbers. Arvydas Sabonis and Vlade Divac also appear to somewhat fit this archetype, although they were better at lowering opponent shooting percentages in general. Different eras obviously.
According to Cleaning the Glass, the average put-back is worth 1.123 points per play. I'm not sure if this includes transition put-backs or just half-court ones. For comparison, the average half-court play is worth 0.987 points per play. This number excludes the 1.123 points per play from the put-backs.
And of course, with the league average free-throw percentage being .784, the free throws are worth 1.568 points per possession.
Anybody who knows about general RAPM numbers remembers how guys like Jason Collins and Nene always had significant defensive marks despite uninspiring box score numbers. This was because both guys had supreme defensive rebounding impact due to proper fundamentals and boxing out. Their teams always rebounded way better on defense when they were on the court versus off it. They also had a solid effect on suppressing opponent free-throw rates.
Nene is in an archetype of big that is wildly undervalued by fans and NBA teams. He's a center who was an average-ish rim protector. He has decent rim deterrence numbers for his career. How could an average rim protector big be so high up on this DRAPM list?
Let's take a quick look at his four factor on/offs for his career:
https://gyazo.com/3f3065ab615d131e1b14a8a133eca74f
What do you notice? Well for one that he has many years of mega elite rebounding on/offs. Much better defensive rebounding will hurt the opposing teams offense because they get less easy putbacks. He did this despite having a low amount of defensive rebounds for a center, which some people may find strange.
Here's an excerpt from an interview Nene did with Zach Lowe:
People with this team say you don’t care about stats. That you don’t even look at them. Some players say they don’t care about stats, but the Wizards people say you actually mean it. You really don’t care?
No, I don’t care about stats. I really don’t. I care about winning and losing. I actually care more when I lose because, you know, I always look for what I can do better, where I made a mistake, where the team made a mistake.
Here’s a stat I’ve always wanted to ask you about: Your teams always rebound better when you are on the floor, but you get a lot of criticism for not getting a lot of rebounds yourself.
I know, I know!
But it happens every year, in terms of team rebounding. What’s going on there?
If I don’t box out, if I try to steal the ball from my teammates, I could average 13 rebounds or 14 rebounds per game. But I learned the right way. I learned to box out, respect each side of the hoop. There’s a reason we have better rebounding when I play, because I know the fundamentals.
Did you know about that stat?
Yeah, yeah, I think I heard that.
So it’s just about boxing out.
Exactly — not only on the low block, but in the whole paint. The guys outside have to box out, so the little guys don’t surprise you down there.
You do notice a lot of players just sort of stand under the rim, kind of boxing out an area, instead of finding a player to box out.
That’s the way they learn. It’s not that way in the international schools.
He also had an above average steal rate whereas a lot of elite rim protectors not only have low steal rates but they play a style of defense that results in teammates forcing less turnovers than they normally do. So, the combination of good rim deterrence, the ability to force turnovers at an above average rate, and elite team defensive rebounding numbers made Nene lineups very very good defensively. It's kind of insane his lineups had so much success on the defensive glass when Nene has never even averaged 6 defensive rebounds per game. It really drives home the point that boxing out is incredibly valuable.
Additionally, steals and deflections are more valuable than blocks because they're more likely to lead to the defense gaining possession of the ball. Considering the average transition play following a steal is worth a whopping 1.393 points per play, this value is magnified in today's offense-slanted league.
Exceptional team defensive rebounding impact, a low opponent free-throw rate, and above-average steals and deflections help explain why Nikola Jokic appears a plus defender on many advanced statistics and RAPM numbers. Arvydas Sabonis and Vlade Divac also appear to somewhat fit this archetype, although they were better at lowering opponent shooting percentages in general. Different eras obviously.