Anthony Davis, bodily proportions, standing reach, and overrated defense?

[Im Still Ballin]

Anthony Davis is one of the best defenders in the NBA and of his generation. His unique combination of size, mobility, and basketball intelligence has allowed him to impact the game defensively in a way few others can match. His strengths are his paint protection, court coverage, versatility, defensive playmaking, and general defensive efficiency.

No one has been able to cover more space on defense over the last decade. No one aside from perhaps Draymond has been as versatile, able to defend in the paint, out on the perimeter, on-ball, off-ball, any pick-and-roll coverage, or any position. Davis boasts impressive steal and block rates, a comparatively low personal foul rate, and recovers possession of shot contests better than anyone currently.

He has made the All-Defensive 1st team three times and the All-Defensive 2nd team twice. He has also finished fourth (2015), third (2018), second (2020), and fourth (2024) in DPOY.

But for a guy who rightfully got Bill Russell comparisons in college, his defense has been somewhat of a disappointment. His team's defenses have been unremarkable for the most part:


New Orleans Pelicans

2012-13: 110.1 DRtg (28th/30); +4.2 rDRtg
2013-14: 110.1 DRtg (27th/30); +3.4 rDRtg
2014-15: 107.3 DRtg (22nd/30; +1.7 rDRtg
2015-16: 109.5 DRtg (27th/30); +3.1 rDRtg
2016-17: 107.4 DRtg (9th/30); -1.4 rDRtg
2017-18: 108.3 DRtg (14th/30); -0.3 rDRtg
2018-19: 112.6 DRtg (23rd/30); +2.2 rDRtg

Los Angeles Lakers

2019-20: 106.3 DRtg (3rd/30); -4.3 rDRtg
2020-21: 107.1 DRtg (1st/30); -5.2 rDRtg
2021-22: 113.3 DRtg (21st/30); +1.3 rDRtg
2022-23: 113.9 DRtg (11th/30); -0.9 rDRtg
2023-24: 115.3 DRtg (16th/30); +0.0 rDRtg

[Im Still Ballin]

I'm sure there are many ways we can contextualize these team defense results. Injuries, supporting cast, coaching, lineups, scheme, role. But even accounting for these factors I'm still left feeling underwhelmed. His vanilla career defensive RAPM including playoffs is -2.3 per 100 possessions. He ranks 98th in the 28-year ('97 to Feb '24) database, way behind many of his contemporaries. A number of his teammates rank higher also:


Draymond: -5.2 per 100 possessions (5th)
Gobert: -5.1 per 100 possessions (7th)
Embiid: -4.6 per 100 possessions (11th)
Bogut: -4.4 per 100 possessions (15th)
Mobley: -3.3 per 100 possessions (34th)
Nurkic: -3.2 per 100 possessions (35th)
J. Isaac: -3.1 per 100 possessions (41st)
WCJ: -3.0 per 100 possessions (49th)
Covington: -2.9 per 100 possessions (51st)
T. Chandler: -2.9 per 100 possessions (53rd)
B. Adebayo: -2.9 per 100 possessions (54th)
T. Splitter: -2.9 per 100 possessions (55th)
LeBron: -2.8 per 100 possessions (58th)
J. Tatum: -2.8 per 100 possessions (59th)
D. White: -2.8 per 100 possessions (60th)
Ginobili: -2.7 per 100 possessions (65th)
O. Asik: -2.7 per 100 possessions (68th)
Jrue: -2.6 per 100 possessions (73rd)
M. Gasol: -2.6 per 100 possessions (74th)
D. Howard: -2.5 per 100 possessions (83rd)
T. Gibson: -2.5 per 100 possessions (84th)
Nance Jr: -2.5 per 100 possessions (85th)
Thybulle: -2.5 per 100 possessions (87th)
Giannis: -2.4 per 100 possessions (88th)
P. Beverley: -2.4 per 100 possessions (89th)
Battier: -2.4 per 100 possessions (90th)
M. Turner: -2.4 per 100 possessions (94th)

A. Davis: -2.3 per 100 possessions (98th)

This is a vanilla, unadjusted career RAPM sample, so it gives an advantage to early bloomers and players with more prime seasons and fewer post-prime ones. It also doesn't account for the number of possessions played or a player's role on offense and defense. Many of the players above him have significantly smaller roles on both ends. Still, he lags heavily compared to comparable players.

[Im Still Ballin]

We can also look at an age curve-adjusted version of this 28-year RAPM sample:

https://www.nbarapm.com/?28y


28 year Lifetime RAPM
"How good a player was relative to their age across their career starting in 1997"

EXPLANATION:

28-year Lifetime RAPM incorporates an age curve to adjust for players improving and declining with age. How good a player was relative to their age across their career starting in 1997? Everyone is then normalized to expected peak value at Age 27 -- even younger players. Players who are younger are given a bump in this model because they are expected to improve.

DISCLAIMER: Caution looking at players who's career started way before 1997.


Garnett: -6.4 per 100 possessions (1st)
Dikembe: -5.6 per 100 possessions (2nd)
Gobert: -5.3 per 100 possessions (3rd)
Draymond: -5.3 per 100 possessions (4th)
B. Wallace: -4.6 per 100 possessions (6th)
T. Duncan: -4.6 per 100 possessions (7th)
Bogut: -4.5 per 100 possessions (8th)
Embiid: -4.7 per 100 possessions (9th)
S. Bradley: -4.6 per 100 possessions (10th)
A. Mourning: -4.4 per 100 possessions (11th)
D. Robinson: -4.4 per 100 possessions (12th)

Y. Ming: -3.8 per 100 possessions (21st)

Giannis: -3.0 per 100 possessions (39th)

LeBron: -2.8 per 100 possessions (50th)

Bam: -2.4 per 100 possessions (70th)
M. Turner: -2.4 per 100 possessions (74th)
WCJ: -2.3 per 100 possessions (79th)

M. Gasol: -2.3 per 100 possessions (84th)
Kawhi: -2.3 per 100 possessions (86th)
T. Chandler: -2.2 per 100 possessions (89th)

Shaq: -2.1 per 100 possessions (96th)
A. Davis: -2.1 per 100 possessions (97th)
J. Jackson Jr: -2.1 per 100 possessions (99th)

Jokic: -2.0 per 100 possessions (106th)

Sabonis: -1.2 per 100 possessions

The cool thing about this RAPM sample is that it includes a regularized four-factor breakdown. This can help identify and understand what is driving a player's value on defense.


EXPLANATION + EXAMPLE:

Additionally, regularized four factors are provided for each player, which help tell you what is driving their impact. EFG = Effective Field Goal Percentage, TOV = Turnover%, OREB = Offensive Rebound%, FTR = Freethrow Rate.

...

The regularized four factors do help you figure out what's driving their impact. For instance, Alex Caruso ranks top 5 in DRAPM. He also happens to be rank 1 in DTOV. The lineup data suggests he increases the opponent's turnover rate more than anyone else in the modern era, which straightforwardly lowers the amount of points the opponents score. It should be noted Alex Caruso does not have as many minutes as many of these top guys so I'm expecting there's higher variance associated with his numbers.

Here's how AD's defensive regularized four-factors look compared to others:


A. Davis: DEFG: +0.79; DTOV: +0.04; DREB: +2.33; DFTR: +1.2
J. Jackson Jr: DEFG: +1.12; DTOV: -0.2; DREB: +1.23; DFTR: -0.48
M. Gasol: DEFG: +0.74; DTOV: +0.41; DREB: +2.39; DFTR: +1.98
WCJ: DEFG: +0.73; DTOV: +0.22; DREB: +2.69; DFTR: +1.55
Jokic: DEFG: +0.25; DTOV: -0.32; DREB: +5.16; DFTR: +3.55
Whiteside: DEFG: +1.16; DTOV: -1.36; DREB: +2.75; DFTR: +3.32
D. Sabonis: DEFG: -0.01; DTOV: +0.34; DREB: +3.43; DFTR: +2.51
Embiid: DEFG: +2.99; DTOV: -0.83; DREB: +2.14; DFTR: +2.51
Gobert: DEFG: +2.86; DTOV: -0.71; DREB: +3.23; DFTR: +3.88
Draymond: DEFG: +2.42; DTOV: +1.0; DREB: +1.25; DFTR: +1.22
Giannis: DEFG: +1.49; DTOV: +0.51; DREB: +1.07; DFTR: +1.05
Mobley: DEFG: +1.49; DTOV: +0.65; DREB: -0.35; DFTR: +0.9
M. Turner: DEFG: +1.47; DTOV: -0.07; DREB: +1.66; DFTR: +2.22
Bogut: DEFG: +2.05; DTOV: -0.01; DREB: +4.74; DFTR: +3.46
Garnett: DEFG: +2.91; DTOV: +0.77; DREB: +2.94; DFTR: +2.7
Duncan: DEFG: +2.74; DTOV: -1.16; DREB: +4.34; DFTR: +4.37
Yao: DEFG: +2.35; DTOV: -0.93; DREB: +3.97; DFTR: +4.41
D. Robinson: DEFG: +1.95; DTOV: +0.62; DREB: +2.02; DFTR: +3.97
A. Mourning: DEFG: +3.15; DTOV: -0.77; DREB: +1.81; DFTR: +3.3
Dikembe: DEFG: +3.07; DTOV: -1.28; DREB: +4.29; DFTR: +7.47
Hibbert: DEFG: +1.84; DTOV: -1.39; DREB: +2.68; DFTR: +3.24
B. Wallace: DEFG: +1.69; DTOV: +1.26; DREB: +2.65; DFTR: +4.87
Shaq: DEFG: +1.65; DTOV: -1.28; DREB: +3.9; DFTR: +4.29

Although Davis has an above-average DTOV for a big and solid DREB and DFTR, it's his DEFG that's really lacking. He's not affecting opponent effective field goal percentage to nearly the same degree as guys like Gobert, Draymond, Embiid, and Bogut. Even more comparable PF/Cs like JJJ and Giannis comfortably beat him. AD's most similar four-factor comparisons are WCJ and Marc Gasol.

[Im Still Ballin]

So why is AD's DEFG subpar? I think it's because of his good-but-not-great rim protection numbers. Davis' DFG% within 6 feet has always lacked compared to the best of the best. He has a year or two there where he's great but his numbers lag compared to the NBA's top rim protectors:


Anthony Davis defense within 6 feet:

2013-14: 5.7 DFGA; 53% DFG; -7.1 differential
2014-15: 6.1 DFGA; 54.9% DFG; -4.6 differential
2015-16: 5.4 DFGA; 55.8% DFG; -3.9 differential
2016-17: 5.7 DFGA; 54.1% DFG; -7.8 differential
2017-18: 6.7 DFGA; 51.7% DFG; -9.2 differential
2018-19: 6.8 DFGA; 61.4% DFG; -0.9 differential
2019-20: 5.1 DFGA; 50.6% DFG; -11.4 differential
2020-21: N/A
2021-22: 7.0 DFGA; 56.6% DFG; -6.9 differential
2022-23: 7.0 DFGA; 58.9% DFG; -6.6 differential
2023-24: 7.6 DFGA; 56.4% DFG; -7.4 differential


Giannis Antetokoumpo defense within 6 feet:

2013-14: 3.0 DFGA; 50.9% DFG; -8.3 differential
2014-15: 3.7 DFGA; 55.2% DFG; -3.5 differential
2015-16: 4.9 DFGA; 53.7% DFG; -6.3 differential
2016-17: 4.7 DFGA; 50.7% DFG; -10.7 differential
2017-18: 5.0 DFGA; 52.5% DFG; -8.3 differential
2018-19: 4.2 DFGA; 50.7% DFG; -10.8 differential
2019-20: 4.1 DFGA; 41.3% DFG; -20.4 differential
2020-21: 3.8 DFGA; 52.0% DFG; -11.1 differential
2021-22: 5.1 DFGA; 52.9% DFG; -11.2 differential
2022-23: 4.7 DFGA; 48.0% DFG; -16.7 differential
2023-24: 4.9 DFGA; 53.6% DFG; -9.4 differential


Jaren Jackson Jr defense within 6 feet:

2018-19: 5.0 DFGA; 52.2% DFG; -9.7 differential
2019-20: 5.9 DFGA; 54.4% DFG; -7.9 differential
2020-21: N/A
2021-22: 5.1 DFGA; 49.9% DFG; -14.3 differential
2022-23: 6.5 DFGA; 51.1% DFG; -12.9 differential
2023-24: 6.0 DFGA; 55.4% DFG; -8.1 differential


Draymond Green defense within 6 feet:

2014-15: 4.5 DFGA; 52.4% DFG; -5.9 differential
2015-16: 5.6 DFGA; 51.4% DFG; -8.3 differential
2016-17: 6.1 DFGA; 48.8% DFG; -11.6 differential
2017-18: 5.7 DFGA; 55.5% DFG; -5.6 differential
2018-19: 5.3 DFGA; 58.7% DFG; -2.2 differential
2019-20: 4.9 DFGA; 54.2% DFG; -8.4 differential
2020-21: 5.2 DFGA; 50.2% DFG; -12.8 differential
2021-22: 3.9 DFGA; 55.1% DFG; -8.8 differential
2022-23: 5.3 DFGA; 52.7% DFG; -11.5 differential
2023-24: 4.5 DFGA; 61.0% DFG; -2.9 differential


Rudy Gobert defense within 6 feet:

2013-14: 2.7 DFGA; 50% DFG; -8.4 differential
2014-15: 6.7 DFGA; 47.8% DFG; -11.2 differential
2015-16: 6.2 DFGA; 49.1% DFG; -10.4 differential
2016-17: 8.0 DFGA; 46.5% DFG; -14.4 differential
2017-18: 7.4 DFGA; 50.6% DFG; -10.4 differential
2018-19: 8.7 DFGA; 52.3% DFG; -9.6 differential
2019-20: 8.3 DFGA; 50.1% DFG; -12.2 differential
2020-21: 8.3 DFGA; 49.3% DFG; -13.6 differential
2021-22: 7.2 DFGA; 50.6% DFG; -13.1 differential
2022-23: 7.5 DFGA; 56.7% DFG; -7.8 differential
2023-24: 7.8 DFGA; 49.4% DFG; -13.4 differential


Joel Embiid defense within 6 feet:

2016-17: 6.3 DFGA; 43.7% DFG; -17.5 differential
2017-18: 7.0 DFGA; 50.6% DFG; -10.5 differential
2018-19: 9.0 DFGA; 49.9% DFG; -11.1 differential
2019-20: 6.9 DFGA; 57.5% DFG; -5.2 differential
2020-21: 8.1 DFGA; 57.0% DFG; -5.3 differential
2021-22: 8.3 DFGA; 57.5% DFG; -6.6 differential
2022-23: 8.1 DFGA; 63.2% DFG; -1.4 differential
2023-24: 9.0 DFGA; 53.6% DFG; -10.5 differential


Kristaps Porzingis defense within 6 feet:

2015-16: 6.1 DFGA; 50.8% DFG; -9.1 differential
2016-17: 7.3 DFGA; 51.7% DFG; -9.6 differential
2017-18: 6.2 DFGA; 50.7% DFG; -10.8 differential
2018-19: N/A
2019-20: 7.0 DFGA; 50.1% DFG; -11.9 differential
2020-21: 7.5 DFGA; 56.8% DFG; -5.7 differential
2021-22: 6.1 DFGA; 57.1% DFG; -6.8 differential
2022-23: 8.1 DFGA; 53.6% DFG; -10.9 differential
2023-24: 7.8 DFGA; 49.7% DFG; -13.7 differential


Brook Lopez defense within 6 feet:

2013-14: 6.6 DFGA; 44.6% DFG; -14.3 differential
2014-15: 6.7 DFGA; 55.5% DFG; -3.8 differential
2015-16: 7.9 DFGA; 52.1% DFG; -8.2 differential
2016-17: 4.7 DFGA; 55.3% DFG; -5.8 differential
2017-18: 5.4 DFGA; 55.0% DFG; -6.3 differential
2018-19: 6.6 DFGA; 51.3% DFG; -10.6 differential
2019-20: 6.6 DFGA; 46.0% DFG; -16.6 differential
2020-21: 6.9 DFGA; 50.7% DFG; -11.7 differential
2021-22: 4.6 DFGA; 46.7% DFG; -18.6 differential
2022-23: 8.1 DFGA; 51.7% DFG; -13.2 differential
2023-24: 8.5 DFGA; 55.7% DFG; -8.2 differential

These numbers may surprise many because Davis is such a potent shot-blocker. He's also had some incredible defensive performances in the playoffs, namely '20 and '23. He absolutely locked down the paint in the first two rounds of 2023. But the large sample of data is pretty clear: he's not as good a rim protector as his block totals and general perception suggest.

Role is an interesting thing to consider. He started out in New Orleans as a PF playing alongside centers like Robin Lopez, Omer Asik, and Alexis Ajinca. They tried him at center to good effect but he wasn't sturdy enough at the time to withstand the physical play if I'm not mistaken. He then went to LA, played his best season of defense next to Javale and Dwight, then eventually transitioned to what he is now: a full-time center.

Manning the five, you'd think his rim protection numbers would go up but they haven't. He's gotten stronger but he's still coming up short compared to the top competition.

So what's holding him back? Why aren't his shot contests as effective as the other players listed? I don't think it's his mobility as he is a fluid mover and very quick, both with his feet and with his jump. These are ideal athletic traits for a great defender. He lacked strength in the past but he's quite sturdy now. I don't think it's his basketball IQ. Is he not aggressive enough?

I think his standing reach limits his ability in the vertical plane. His best blocks appear to be ones where he's reaching outwards or coming over from the weak side. I think he's much more suited to playing the weak-side shot-blocker role as opposed to the primary paint protector.

Despite boasting a nearly 7'6" wingspan, Davis' standing reach is only 9'0". This is less than 6'7.75" Carlos Boozer (9'0.5"), 6'7" Montrezl Harrell (9'1"), 6'10.25" long-necked Chris Bosh (9'1"), 6'8" Kevon Looney (9'2"), and 6'8" Brandon Ingram (9'1.5"). It's legitimately below average for a center (9'1.5") and only slightly above average for a PF (8'11").

AD has a long neck, very broad, low-set shoulders, and small hands (8.5" long). The length of his neck is harder to see as he has grown facial hair, put on weight, and aged. Bodily proportions play an interesting role in basketball-related anthropometric measurements and ultimately functional size.

Here's what 9'0" AD looks like versus 9'7" Boban:

https://i.ibb.co/gMc1tjg/90pktc.gif
https://i.ibb.co/x7z5c7w/cQCERm0.jpg

[Im Still Ballin]

For comparison, Wilt has the same wingspan (7'8") and standing reach (9'7" in shoes) as Boban. Here's 6'9.5" to 6'10" barefoot Bill Russell going toe-for-toe with Chamberlain. Russ was known for his freakish standing reach, estimated to be in the 9'5" to 9'7" range. His reach was greater than 7'2" Kareem's, 7'3" Swede Halbrook's, and 7'2" Ralph Sampson's.

https://i.ibb.co/7K5B2DZ/90pu5z.gif
https://from-way-downtown.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/01/img_1396.jpg?w=1568
https://www.shutterstock.com/editorial/image-editorial/M5T9Ib1aN7TaQ416NDc0MjM=/bill-russell-boston-celtics-battling-against-wilt-440nw-12449798c.jpg

[Im Still Ballin]

https://i.ibb.co/rMsLdy9/8edziv.gif
https://i.ibb.co/N2qLRqR/billwilt.png
https://i.ibb.co/ckttnDr/standing-reach-bill.png

Unlike AD, Bill had a short neck and narrow clavicles. All of that wingspan was in his arms and 10.5" long hands:

https://i.ibb.co/Z1FQjcz/8xwx0b.gif

So what should we make of the information presented in this thread? I think Davis is limited in the more vertical shot-contesting plane by his mediocre standing reach. These are the sorts of contests more commonly associated with the center position, drop coverage, and the primary paint and rim protection role.

I believe AD is more suited to the roaming help defender providing weakside shot-blocking. This utilizes his defensive strengths better. But it's also generally a less valuable role compared to being the primary rim protector. Even though I've criticized the concepts, I think a floor/ceiling analogy might be apt here.

Versatility and mobility are great on defense. But pure paint/rim protection is more valuable. There's a hierarchy of defensive importance, much like on offense regarding shot creation. I don't think Davis can elevate the floor of a team's defense as well as better pure rim protectors. But his unique skillset may grant him greater utility and value on higher-end defensive teams.

[RRR3]

How reliable is RAPM though? That's an interesting site

[gbaLL]

g - marley g [charlotte]
drug - marley drug [portland]
peace - marley peace [sacramento]
hippy - marley j [asheville]
cool - marley cool [burlington]
ill - marley ill [richmond]
killa - marley killa [phoenix]
mexico - mexico killa [nashville]
duv - marley duv [kansas city]
colt - marley colt [san antonio]
eagle - marley eagle [san jose]
kripwalk - marley 'od' kripwalk [san diego]
dope - marley dope [columbus]
od - drug $ [eureka]
gautama - marley gautama [bone]
drug$ - marley drug$ [cincinatti]
hippy drug dealer - marley od$ag [vancouver]
killafornia - marley killafornia [ukiah]
o.d. - marley o.d. [eureka]
chronic - marley chronic [seattle]
dead prez - marley $ [raleigh]
paz - marley paz [sante fe]
azteca - marley azteca [greenville]
dope kid - marley gat [birmingham]
diamond - marley diamond [dallas]
good - marley good [orlando]
dancing moon - marley moon [blowing rock]
p.c.p. - jamal drug [winston-salem]
[ 28 ]

$occer - marley $occer [black mountain]
marley - marley hippy [woodland]
[ art ]

marley
duv
kahlil
mexico
drug $
cool
ill
jamal
killa
peace

[dankok8]

One factor worth noting OP...

Since coming to the Lakers, it looks like AD has started to take Lebron's approach of resting in the regular season.

In the playoffs, the Lakers' rDRtg has been pretty great.

2020: -4.0
2021: -6.7
2023: -5.0
2024: -4.5

[tpols]

The Lakers went from a mediocre defense that couldn't even get a winning record or make the playoffs to #3 rank defense in 2020 plus champion status, and #1 rank defense in 2021. When AD went down in the playoffs though the Suns routed them.

I feel like there's an intangible aspect to defense though. AD by himself is an elite defender but he isn't a loud leader type who rallies the troops so to speak. Like Draymond does. He has way more talent but he doesn't have the same leadership qualities.

[RRR3]

The Lakers went from a mediocre defense that couldn't even get a winning record or make the playoffs to #3 rank defense in 2020 plus champion status, and #1 rank defense in 2021. When AD went down in the playoffs though the Suns routed them.
tell us where it hurts

[tpols]

Looking @ the game logs though, AD and Lebron sat out a lot of the year but the Lakers somehow got #1 ranked defense. Goes to show the importance of coaching. Frank Vogel was an elite defensive coach.

[RRR3]

Looking @ the game logs though, AD and Lebron sat out a lot of the year but the Lakers somehow got #1 ranked defense. Goes to show the importance of coaching. Frank Vogel was an elite defensive coach.
LeBron missed 4 games, stop spewing bullshit.

[tpols]

LeBron missed 4 games, stop spewing bullshit.

In 2021 when LA was the best defense in the league Lebron played 45/72 games. He missed 27 games.

You're so quick to argue you can't even get your ducks in order first lol.

[RRR3]

In 2021 when LA was the best defense in the league Lebron played 45/72 games. He missed 27 games.

You're so quick to argue you can't even get your ducks in order first lol.
Oh well, I still am not high on Vogel, he had really good personnel in Caruso and KCP. That kinda disproves your whole AD makes the defense thing tho now doesn't it.

[tpols]

In 2021 when LA was the best defense in the league Lebron played 45/72 games. He missed 27 games.

You're so quick to argue you can't even get your ducks in order first lol.



Oh well,

Yea... shut up. :oldlol:

[RRR3]

Yea... shut up. :oldlol:
I admitted I was wrong, something you've never done in your life. Now explain why their defense was so good without GOAT GOD AD

[warriorfan]

How reliable is RAPM though? That's an interesting site


It can be hit or miss. Even with all of the algorithms they put the numbers through there is still a good amount of “noise”.

It’s best to use it in combination with other advanced on/off metrics like Raptor and RPM. Some don’t like RPM as much because it takes a lot of box score data in account along with adjusted on/off.

If multiple metrics are showing similar things then it validates it a lot more in my opinion




As for OP it is pretty interesting. It’s a great point that while we view him as an athletic and mobile big man with a large wingspan….his standing reach is a bit lacking. Another theory to throw out there is that Davis’ motor might be a factor with lower than you would think defensive impact metrics. Where he looks good on the court for the majority of the game but there are a few possessions here or there where he gets beat out for a loose ball, or is lazy on a rotation or a contest. I think that’s where the impact metrics shine. They really give credit to the Draymond Green type players who play with incredible motor and effort that have subtle effects on lots of plays. And on the other end of the spectrum it is able to pick out players who are talented but have a tendency to take possessions off.

[tpols]

I admitted I was wrong, something you've never done in your life. Now explain why their defense was so good without GOAT GOD AD

I already told you. Frank Vogel. Their defensive rank has never been the same since before or after he coached them.

[RRR3]

I already told you. Frank Vogel. Their defensive rank has never been the same since before or after he coached them.
You don't think that has something to do with them stupidly getting rid of Caruso and KCP?

[tpols]

Caruso is very good but not enough to anchor a number 1 defense. KCP is literally just an average role player. He went to the Nuggets and their defensive rank wasn't close to elite.

[SATAN]

Good thread. How quickly AD gets off the ground really stood out to me especially during the Olympics. Can't help wonder how much he drops off defensively once his athleticism starts declining.

[Im Still Ballin]

One factor worth noting OP...

Since coming to the Lakers, it looks like AD has started to take Lebron's approach of resting in the regular season.

In the playoffs, the Lakers' rDRtg has been pretty great.

2020: -4.0
2021: -6.7
2023: -5.0
2024: -4.5

2021 and 2024 are incredibly small sample sizes so it's hard to take away much from them. 2020-21 was LA's best regular season defense and it was also the year AD was out of shape and missed 50% of the season. Vogel is a strong defensive coach and Caruso, Schroeder, KCP, Gasol, and LeBron were all strong defenders.

2020 and 2023 are larger, more indicative samples. It's worth mentioning 2023 featured favorable matchups against small lineups. Memphis playing 6'8" Xavier Tillman Sr. and Jaren Jackson Jr at center. And GSW with Kevon Looney and Draymond.

[Im Still Ballin]

As for OP it is pretty interesting. It’s a great point that while we view him as an athletic and mobile big man with a large wingspan….his standing reach is a bit lacking. Another theory to throw out there is that Davis’ motor might be a factor with lower than you would think defensive impact metrics. Where he looks good on the court for the majority of the game but there are a few possessions here or there where he gets beat out for a loose ball, or is lazy on a rotation or a contest. I think that’s where the impact metrics shine. They really give credit to the Draymond Green type players who play with incredible motor and effort that have subtle effects on lots of plays. And on the other end of the spectrum it is able to pick out players who are talented but have a tendency to take possessions off.

AD is a first-ballot HOFer but he has definitely fallen short of the Bill Russell defensive comparisons. Draymond and Rudy are the best defenders of AD's generation for sure. I still hold hope that a Bill Russell-like defender will come along. He'd be like a mix of what both Dray and Rudy bring: the versatility, mobility, active hands, and relentless motor of Dray with the functional size, rim & paint protection, and defensive rebounding of Rudy.

[dankok8]

AD is a first-ballot HOFer but he has definitely fallen short of the Bill Russell defensive comparisons. Draymond and Rudy are the best defenders of AD's generation for sure. I still hold hope that a Bill Russell-like defender will come along. He'd be like a mix of what both Dray and Rudy bring: the versatility, mobility, active hands, and relentless motor of Dray with the functional size, rim & paint protection, and defensive rebounding of Rudy.

It's just about impossible for any defender in the modern era to touch Bill Russell's impact. With the number of outside shots taken today, a rim protector just isn't worth as much as it was in the pre-3pt era.

[warriorfan]

AD is a first-ballot HOFer but he has definitely fallen short of the Bill Russell defensive comparisons. Draymond and Rudy are the best defenders of AD's generation for sure. I still hold hope that a Bill Russell-like defender will come along. He'd be like a mix of what both Dray and Rudy bring: the versatility, mobility, active hands, and relentless motor of Dray with the functional size, rim & paint protection, and defensive rebounding of Rudy.

tbh to keep it simple, a longer and more athletic draymond green without giving up too much strength seems to me would be the prototype for a greatest of all time defender

[Im Still Ballin]

It's just about impossible for any defender in the modern era to touch Bill Russell's impact. With the number of outside shots taken today, a rim protector just isn't worth as much as it was in the pre-3pt era.

That's not what I meant by Russell-like defender. Obviously, the change in the style of play and rules and their interpretation has altered things. Still, there are a few rare defenders whom have defensive impacts comparable to top offensive players. Garnett being the chief example.

KG's #1 ranked defensive RAPM impact was higher than LeBron's #1 ranked offensive RAPM impact. This was in Jeremias Englemann's 14-year database (00-14), so it's a little outdated. But it's at least some degree of proof that a defender can impact a game to that degree. Rudy's defensive peak in 2021 and 2022 was pretty damn strong as well.

https://i.ibb.co/qYCMPFb/Q5-YJp-RA-d.webp

I'm not going to rule out someone coming along who could be that guy. Might be Wemby. Or a seven-foot version of Draymond. Or something to that effect.

[Im Still Ballin]

tbh to keep it simple, a longer and more athletic draymond green without giving up too much strength seems to me would be the prototype for a greatest of all time defender

That sounds about right. Wemby could be the guy but I'm not sure just yet. I don't know if he has the IQ, awareness, physicality, and speed. May be too gumby/awkward.

[RRR3]

That's not what I meant by Russell-like defender. Obviously, the change in the style of play and rules and their interpretation has altered things. Still, there are a few rare defenders whom have defensive impacts comparable to top offensive players. Garnett being the chief example.

KG's #1 ranked defensive RAPM impact was higher than LeBron's #1 ranked offensive RAPM impact. This was in Jeremias Englemann's 14-year database (00-14), so it's a little outdated. But it's at least some degree of proof that a defender can impact a game to that degree. Rudy's defensive peak in 2021 and 2022 was pretty damn strong as well.

https://i.ibb.co/qYCMPFb/Q5-YJp-RA-d.webp

I'm not going to rule out someone coming along who could be that guy. Might be Wemby. Or a seven-foot version of Draymond. Or something to that effect.
AMIR JOHNSON???? He was a good role player but jesus. I prefer EPM, personally, RAPM has some wacky stuff like this. As much as I respect Aldridge, Pierce, Nash and Manu idk about that kind of impact for them.

[RRR3]

That sounds about right. Wemby could be the guy but I'm not sure just yet. I don't know if he has the IQ, awareness, physicality, and speed. May be too gumby/awkward.
He's the guy. Trust the plan. He was absolutely shutting down the paint versus a stacked team USA

[Im Still Ballin]

AMIR JOHNSON???? He was a good role player but jesus. I prefer EPM, personally, RAPM has some wacky stuff like this. As much as I respect Aldridge, Pierce, Nash and Manu idk about that kind of impact for them.

EPM is a single-season metric. RAPM isn't. All that means is that Amir Johnson was really good in his role up until that point (2014). Look at the number of possessions.

[warriorfan]

AMIR JOHNSON???? He was a good role player but jesus. I prefer EPM, personally, RAPM has some wacky stuff like this. As much as I respect Aldridge, Pierce, Nash and Manu idk about that kind of impact for them.

Amir Johnson has been a cult meme in the community for 15+ years.

Earlier in another post or thread I referenced the “noise” of RAPM and Amir Johnson was what was in my mind when I wrote that.

Although while it’s safe to say rapm loves him too much for unknown reasons which need to be ironed out in future algorithm changes….I think it is also safe to say he flew under the radar as an underrated role player in his limited minutes.

I also think Amir with his limited minutes also played into him throwing off the RAPM. You could be smart and edit the spreadsheet to only include big time starter minutes and erase Amir off the board if you wanted. Half is the statistics, half is what you do with them.


But once again like to my last post, that what you should do is use these advanced on off metrics in concert and see what the consensus is over the spread of them rather than going all in on one. Every single metric by itself even the most refined ones have their individual flaws.

[Real Men Wear Green]

A solitary great defender can't make the whole team defense great. If you put Davis in the middle of the Celtics the result would be historic. Put him in a team where the second-best defender is James whenever he decides it's time to put forth the effort and the result won't be special.

[Im Still Ballin]

A solitary great defender can't make the whole team defense great.

Some can do this better than others. Gobert is better than AD in this regard because of superior rim and paint protection.


If you put Davis in the middle of the Celtics the result would be historic.

Obviously. Could say the same for Lopez, Giannis, Gobert, Dray, Bam, and JJJ.


Put him in a team where the second-best defender is James whenever he decides it's time to put forth the effort and the result won't be special.

Other elite defenders with superior rim and paint protection could probably get more out of that team on defense IMO.

[Real Men Wear Green]

Some can do this better than others. Gobert is better than AD in this regard because of superior rim and paint protection.Gobert can have more impact in the regular season because teams aren't coming up with special game plans to exploit flaws. Gobert is better at protecting the rim. But Davis is still elite at protecting the rim and can also hang with players on the perimeter that Gobert would not be able to deal with. Rim protection is more important for a big but these days the ability to switch is major. Given the fact that Davis is still an excellent rim protector, give me Davis to deal with the modern NBA.




Obviously. Could say the same for Lopez, Giannis, Gobert, Dray, Bam, and JJJ.Which doesn't change the fact that with the Lakers Davis is on an island. To have a great defense you have to send 4 or more guys out there that are no worse than "good" defensively. If you have D'Lo out there getting wrecked Davis is out there desperately trying to erase mistakes instead of reinforcing great defenders like White and Holiday, guys who don't get beat nearly as much and when they do and Davis steps up to protect the basket he would do so confidently because he knows they have his back and will step up to try for a steal, challenge the shot, try to take a charge, or just do something to keep Davis's man from scoring an easy basket off of a dump off or offensive rebound.



Other elite defenders with superior rim and paint protection could probably get more out of that team on defense IMO.Any decent coach with talented offensive players can call plays to score on a team where there is only one elite defender.

[Charlie Sheen]

You don't think that has something to do with them stupidly getting rid of Caruso and KCP?

Not really.

The Lakers as they were constructed were going nowhere. By the summer of 21... there were already signs that Lebron could no longer shoulder the load of carrying through the regular season. They needed help at the top end of the roster.

Here is where I agree with tpols. Looking back on it years later... the FO was not in sync with Vogel. His best defensive lineups always featured a 5. Problem was that having a DAJ or Dwight on the floor diminished what Westbrook provides on the offensive end. Vogel is not the most flexible guy. He was not tinkering with his scheme. That left him with 2 bad choices... play Melo big minutes trying to unlock the offensive end for Russ to operate or play one of his true 5's and make it easier for the opponent to defend.

[90sgoat]

AD gets bullied in FIBA ball when playing center, this could explain it.

[Im Still Ballin]

2024-25 update:

LAL with an atrocious 26th-ranked, 118.2 DRtg, +5.0 rDRtg defense after 23 games. Davis with a -1.3 on/off net defensive rating and 117.9 on-court defensive rating.