The best statistical argument for Prime Dwight Howard?

[Im Still Ballin]

Dwight is an interesting player to analyze for several reasons.

For one, he has incredible strengths and comparatively glaring weaknesses that made him a very hot-and-cold type of player. There would be certain matchups that he'd absolutely destroy, then others where he'd stink it up. Very high variance to his impact on offense. But the defense was generally always there per the game footage.

Secondly, his raw play-by-play/lineup data and advanced statistics are generally lacking in comparison to his reputation and box score production. His RAPM is lousy but the one-number/all-in-one metrics like EPM, LEBRON, and RPM are more favorable to him.

LEBRON metric (only goes back to 2009-10):

https://i.ibb.co/dL1KRwd/cLqS3lf.png

EPM:


Best Three-Year EPM Stretches:

1. LeBron James (08-10) +9.26
2. Stephen Curry (15-17) +9.20
3. James Harden (18-20) +9.06
4. Chris Paul (08-10) +8.73
5. Chris Paul (12-14) +8.4
6. LeBron James (11-13) +7.93
7. Kawhi Leonard (15-17) +7.5
8. Giannis Antetokoumpo (18-20) +7.2
9. Dwyane Wade (09-11) +6.96
10. Anthony Davis (18-20) +6.66
11. Kevin Garnett (03-05) +6.56
12. Russell Westbrook (15-17) +6.36
13. Kevin Durant (13-16) +6.16
14. Damian Lillard (18-20) +5.96
15. Dirk Nowitzki (06-08) +5.7
16. Tim Duncan (05-07) +5.66
17a. Kobe Bryant (06-08) +5.5
17b. Dwight Howard (09-11) +5.5
19. Steve Nash (05-07) +4.96

Best Single-Season EPM

1. Chris Paul (2009) +10.8
2. Stephen Curry (2016) +10.5
3. LeBron James (2009) +10.3
4. James Harden (2019) +10.0
5. LeBron James (2013) +9.0
6. Giannis Antetokoumpo (2020) +8.9
7. Chris Paul (2012) +8.5
8a. Dwyane Wade (2009) +7.9
8b. Kawhi Leonard (2016) +7.9
10. Anthony Davis (2018) +7.3
11a. Kevin Garnett (2003) +7.0
11b. Russell Westbrook (2017) +7.0
13a. Kevin Durant (2014) +6.6
13b. Damian Lillard (2018) +6.6
15. Tim Duncan (2005) +6.5
16. Dirk Nowitzki (2003) +6.3
17. Kobe Bryant (2006) +5.9
18. Dwight Howard (2011) +5.8
19. Steve Nash (2007) +5.5

The best thing we can do is to look at how Orlando played without Dwight during his 2007-08 to 2011-12 prime. The Orlando Magic played 25 games without Dwight Howard between the 2007-08 and 2011-12 seasons:


- 9-16 W/L (29.5 win pace) vs. [281-147 (53.8 win pace) with Dwight over 428 games]
- 106.3 ORtg (-0.65 rORtg) vs. [109.8 ORtg (+2.85 rORtg) with Dwight over 428 games]
- 109.3 DRtg (+2.35 rDRtg) vs. [103.9 DRtg (-3.05 rDRtg) with Dwight over 428 games]

That's not adjusted for strength of schedule or anything. And the sample size is naturally limited because Howard's durability was exceptional. But that's a pretty big impact footprint. I think it helps fill in the blanks that the play-by-play/lineup data and RAPM doesn't capture.

Dwight improved the offense +3.5 per 100 and the defense -5.4 per 100 for an overall total of +8.9 per 100. From a 29.5 win pace to a 53.8 win pace.

We can also look at how Orlando played the year after Dwight left:


2011-2012 Orlando Magic with Dwight:
- 54 games played; 33-21 W/L (50.1 win pace)
- Off Rtg: 105.1/+0.5 rORtg (15th of 30) Def Rtg: 103.3/-1.3 rDRtg (12th of 30)

2012-2013 Orlando Magic without Dwight:
- 20-62 W/L
- Off Rtg: 101.6/-4.3 rORtg (27th of 30) Def Rtg: 109.1/+3.2 rDRtg (25th of 30)

Differential: -3.5 ORtg (-4.8 rORtg) and +5.8 DRtg (+4.5 rDRtg); an overall total of +9.3 per 100 (-9.3 rNet)

Of course, they had a new coach, new personnel, and some injuries. Still, it's a huge impact footprint that was bigger than KG's when he left Minnesota. Reminiscent of when LeBron left Cleveland. And Orlando would continue to win 25 games or less for several seasons after. So, it's not like 2012-13 was an outlier.

[iamgine]

I think they were tanking.

[post]

very good player at his best not really mvp level

[j3lademaster]

very good player at his best not really mvp level2011 Dwight was for sure mvp level. Matter of fact, he got robbed. He lead a team of bad defenders like Turkoglu, Nelson, Ryan Anderson, Brandon Bass etc. Michael Pietrus was probably his best teammate as far as a defender goes and he’s average. And 22.9 ppg was different in 2011, Durant lead the league with just 27.7 and the next player above Dwight was Nowitzki with .1 more ppg.

[post]

2011 Dwight was for sure mvp level. Matter of fact, he got robbed. He lead a team of bad defenders like Turkoglu, Nelson, Ryan Anderson, Brandon Bass etc. Michael Pietrus was probably his best teammate as far as a defender goes and he’s average. And 22.9 ppg was different in 2011, Durant lead the league with just 27.7 and the next player above Dwight was Nowitzki with .1 more ppg.

you're entitled to your opinion like everyone else is

[j3lademaster]

you're entitled to your opinion like everyone else is

:cheers:

[DJMcDonald]

you're entitled to your opinion like everyone else is

:lol

[ILLsmak]

He'd kill in a 7 sec offense with a pg like Nash. He could get his on the block, but I would want him running the floor, and rebounding and defense is something he had that would translate anywhere, but he's a 'finisher' at his best. His reb and defense are always gonna be good.

What team was he ever on with a good PG? He's not really built to be a guy who you run the offense through and just give touches to over and over, though. You can give him looks, but you don't want to have him playing the role where he decides where the offense goes, imo. Considering his 'limitations,' he did do a lot.

Infact, one could argue if he came into the league with an elite PG, he would have developed his skillset properly. Working out with Hakeem probably helped a little, but it's not his game.

-Smak

[L.Kizzle]

very good player at his best not really mvp level

Was literally a top five in MVP voting 4 seasons straight. Pretty MVP worthy to me.

[post]

Was literally a top five in MVP voting 4 seasons straight. Pretty MVP worthy to me.

when i say mvp level i mean win the award

i don't think rose was mvp level either

lebron is the orthodox alternative for 2011

cp3 would be an unorthodox pick but some numbers point towards him

[AlternativeAcc.]

when i say mvp level i mean win the award

i don't think rose was mvp level either





Not sure how this validates your argument

[3ba11]

How many guys have the injury excuse but still win?.. That's what Dwight did in 2009 when his all-star point guard missed the ECF with injury, but Dwight still won as a +700 underdog and one of the 10 biggest underdogs to ever win a playoff series.. And he did it against the player that many people portend is the goat during his MVP and 66-win season.

[ShawkFactory]

Not sure how this validates your argument

:lol

[post]

Not sure how this validates your argument

i doubt there's an argument that could definitively resolve this or many other things

so i just throw stuff out there and move on

[tontoz]

Howard was pretty bad from 3 -10 feet and took a lot of shots in that range in his prime. That hurt his effectiveness.

Something was missing a bit upstairs too. I remember some pretty negative comments from teammates.

Great player obviously but it felt like he lacked skills and awareness.

[Full Court]

He doesn't get enough credit for the Lakers bubble ring.

[Im Still Ballin]

Howard was pretty bad from 3 -10 feet and took a lot of shots in that range in his prime. That hurt his effectiveness.

Something was missing a bit upstairs too. I remember some pretty negative comments from teammates.

Great player obviously but it felt like he lacked skills and awareness.

What hurt him the most were turnovers on offense. And goal-tending on defense.

RealGM posters 70sFan and Dipper 13's stat-tracking has prime Shaq roughly around 50% FG on post-up isolation plays which was more or less the same as Dwight from 2008-2012. Both drew immense foul pressure but it was Shaq's superior passing and possession efficiency (lower TOV%) that made him so much better.

That similar FG% and lower TOV% made his points per play (ppp) comfortably better. And relatively speaking, 0.97 ppp was more valuable in 1998-2002 than it would've been in 2008-2012.

Then you add in the greater volume, passing, and defensive attention faced and it's a landslide. Peak Shaq used around 16-18 post-up possessions per game while peak Dwight was around 9-11.

But to be correct, there wasn't that much between them regarding shooting percentages outside the restricted area across their careers.


Shaquille O'Neal 3-10 feet
Regular season: 43.4% FG (41.6% of total shots attempted)
Playoffs: 40.7% FG (46.1% of total shots attempted)


Dwight Howard 3-10 feet
Regular season: 41.6% FG (33.6% of total shots attempted)
Playoffs: 40.5% FG (35.0% of total shots attempted)


1999-2000
Restricted Area: 74.8% FG (763 FGA)
Everywhere Else: 42.7% FG (902 FGA)

2000-2001
Restricted Area: 77.4% FG (654 FGA)
Everywhere Else: 40.0% FG (768 FGA)

2001-2002
Restricted Area: 73.6% FG (662 FGA)
Everywhere Else: 39.7% FG (567 FGA)

vs.


2008-2009
Restricted Area: 70.0% FG (560 FGA)
Everywhere Else: 40.2% FG (418 FGA)

2009-2010
Restricted Area: 74.1% FG (483 FGA)
Everywhere Else: 44.2% FG (344 FGA)

2010-2011
Restricted Area: 73.5% FG (596 FGA)
Everywhere Else: 41.0% FG (441 FGA)

Just imagine if Dwight could've passed better and taken care of the ball...

[tontoz]

Shaq is a bad comparison. Shaq was pretty much always doubled when he posted up. Howard not so much.

Nobody in the league could guard Shaq 1 on 1 without getting abused.

[warriorfan]

Shaq is a bad comparison. Shaq was pretty much always doubled when he posted up. Howard not so much.

Nobody in the league could guard Shaq 1 on 1 without getting abused.

comparing dwight to shaq in the post is a bit of a stretch but he is closer to shaq than a lot of people want to admit

his game wasn’t pretty but peak dwight was very dominant and underrated in my opinion

[Im Still Ballin]

Shaq is a bad comparison. Shaq was pretty much always doubled when he posted up. Howard not so much.

Nobody in the league could guard Shaq 1 on 1 without getting abused.

He's actually the best, closest player comparison; a very young rookie Shaq that is. The version of O'Neal that had yet to become an improved passer and was relatively raw offensively compared to what he'd eventually become. And was still 303 pounds, lean, and displayed a higher-revving motor.

There's never going to be a perfect comparison for players as unique as these two. However, they both derived their scoring value from applying extreme levels of rim and foul pressure on defenses. They both leveraged their immense physical gifts to blend off-ball movement and post-up play in the half-court to seal deep and dominate the deep post and also in transition/semi-transition as post-sprinters.

Add to that elite efficacy in play-finishing (rolls, cuts, lobs) and second-chance points from offensive rebounds/z-bounds.

The major difference is that Dwight's movement was more high-low using the PnR whereas Shaq's was side-to-side in classic low-post fashion while his team reversed the ball looking for an entry pass. But young O'Neal was more active with his offensive movement. He would do high-low PnR actions to establish deep post position and play-finish rolls like Dwight did.

https://i.makeagif.com/media/9-07-2024/4_vce8.gif
https://i.makeagif.com/media/9-07-2024/BUW1O2.gif
https://i.makeagif.com/media/9-07-2024/DbX6ka.gif

They also both heavily utilized the post-spin into an alley-oop catch. Shaq referred to this move as The ShawShaq redemption.


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1CdrXBox9t8&ab_channel=nickykm

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OqD8af7bfVQ&ab_channel=marc11152992leckmich

Fun fact: Shaquille O'Neal and Dwight Howard are the only players on record who've scored more than 30% of their points from dunks while averaging 20+ points per game in a season.


2007-08 Dwight: 269 dunks = 538 points / 1695 total points = 31.74%

1992-93 Shaq: 322 dunks = 644 points / 1893 total points = 34.02%
1993-94 Shaq: 381 dunks = 762 points / 2377 total points = 32.06%
2004-05 Shaq: 255 dunks = 510 points / 1669 total points = 30.56%
2005-06 Shaq: 203 dunks = 406 points / 1181 total points = 34.38%

You'll find that Shaq, Dwight, and Purdue Edey all have very similar play-type breakdowns. Very high post-up volume with extremely efficient PnR roll man, cut, and putback points per play. I call this archetype the bully-ball post player. It's a rare type of player because it requires a freakish blend of size and athleticism. All about movement, positioning, physicality, and finishing.

[Im Still Ballin]

And you may think Dwight's getting set up more than Shaq for his dunks but their assist rate on dunks is very similar.

Dunk attempts, 1996-1997 through 2023-2024, including playoffs:

https://i.ibb.co/BP4DjbB/OWk8vQo.png

Most dunks (made) in one season:

https://i.ibb.co/mTBwc52/BQGlwSS.png

Most dunks (made) in one game:

https://i.ibb.co/Kq8fQRC/mntLYME.png

You can really see the difference between some of the dunkers when you look at assist rate. Shaq, Dwight, and Giannis are C/PFs that are self-generating more dunks compared to other bigs. There's a clear difference between them and the Rudy Gobert, DeAndre Jordan, Javale McGee, Tyson Chandler, and Clint Capela types. And Giannis is obviously different to Shaq and Dwight.

Mobile post-up dunkers: Shaq and Dwight.
Slashing dunkers: Giannis.
Roll-and-cut dunkers: Rudy, DeAndre, Javale, Chandler, Capela, etc.

It's never been easier for unskilled bigs to rack up dunks, especially assisted ones.