How much better would good shooting have made AK47, Josh Smith, and Gerald Wallace?

[Im Still Ballin]

The projection of Cooper Flagg potentially being a version of Kirilenko/Josh Smith/Marion but with upgraded offense/on-ball upside has got me thinking. Just what would those guys have looked like with better shooting? How much better/impactful do they become on offense? How would that have changed their accolades, player rankings, and team performance?

Fun little hypothetical here. Thrall me with your basketball acumen.

Josh Smith, Gerald Wallace, and Andrei Kirilenko were defensively-slanted two-way combo forwards from the '00s. AK47 and J-Smoove are arguably the best non-C, PF, C/PF, PF/C shot-blockers of all time. Of the top 250 BLK% seasons, Andrei has five, Josh has four; and the only other guy on that list who played some SF was Bo Outlaw.

All three had one big flaw on offense: poor shooting. It limited their ability to scale up their scoring and creation with a more primary, on-ball role. Despite this limitation, Andrei, Gerald, and Josh were effective and efficient scorers and playmakers. They were competent enough handling the ball, slashing, cutting, finishing inside, drawing fouls, and passing the ball.


From 2003-04 to 2005-06, Andrei Kirilenko averaged 15.8 ppg, 7.6 rpg, 3.6 apg, and 2.7 topg on 45.9% FG, 32.2% 3PT, 49.1% 2PT, 48.9% eFG, 75.3% FT, and 56.6% TS (107.4 TS+). 42.7% of his FGAs came from 10+ feet.

10-16 feet: 29.9% FG on 0.7326 FGA per game = 0.219 FGM per game = 0.438 points per game
16+ feet 2pt: 31.7% FG on 1.8981 FGA per game = 0.602 FGM per game = 1.204 points per game
3pt: 32.2% 3PT on 2.109 FGA per game = 0.679 FGM per game = 2.037 points per game

Mid-range shooting: 2.6307 FGA = 1.642 points per game
Three-point shooting: 2.109 FGA = 2.037 points per game


From 2004-05 to 2010-11, Gerald Wallace averaged 16.4 ppg, 7.5 rpg, 2.4 apg, and 2.3 topg on 47.8% FG, 32.3% 3PT, 50.7% 2PT, 50.4% eFG, 72.7% FT, and 56.2% TS (104.1 TS+). 37.2% of his FGAs came from 10+ feet.

10-16 feet: 30.1% FG on 0.3213 FGA per game = 0.0967113 FGM per game = 0.1934226 points per game
16+ feet 2pt: 36.1% FG on 2.2015 FGA per game = 0.7947415 FGM per game = 1.589483 points per game
3pt: 32.3% 3PT on 1.904 FGA per game = 0.614992 FGM per game = 1.844976 points per game

Mid-range shooting: 2.523 FGA = 1.783 points per game
Three-point shooting: 1.904 FGA = 1.845 points per game


From 2006-07 to 2012-13, Josh Smith averaged 16.8 ppg, 8.5 rpg, 3.5 apg, and 2.7 topg on 47.0% FG, 28.3% 3PT, 49.3% 2PT (101.7 2PT+), 48.5% eFG, 64.4% FT, and 51.9% TS (96.3 TS+). 41.8% of his FGAs came from 10+ feet.

10-16 feet: 25.2% FG on 0.784 FGA per game = 0.197568 FGM per game = 0.395136 points per game
16+ feet 2pt: 34.2% FG on 3.514 FGA per game = 1.201788 FGM per game = 2.403576 points per game
3pt: 28.3% 3PT on 1.554 FGA per game = 0.439782 FGM per game = 1.319346 points per game

Mid-range shooting: 4.298 FGA = 2.799 points per game
Three-point shooting: 1.554 FGA = 1.319 points per game

Andre Iguodala and Shawn Marion could also be included in this bunch. However, Marion did display very good shooting early in his career. In 2002-03, Shawn shot 38.7% 3PT on 4.5 attempts, 85.1% FT on 3.6 attempts, and 40.7% 2PT on 7.33 mid-range (10ft+) attempts. His limitations then had more to do with ball handling and passing I think. Averaged 21.1 ppg on 53.8% TS (104 TS+)

2002-03 Marion is a good reference point for what the others may have looked like with better shooting. Scottie Pippen is also another reference point. Although not the best shooter, he was clearly a step above the Kirilenko/Smith/Wallace/Iguodala types. He had a number of seasons scoring around 20-22 ppg and 5-7 apg on around 103-104 TS+.

Safe estimate, I think improved shooting (let's say Paul Pierce-level shooting) would bump them up to the 20-25 ppg, 4-6 apg, 100-105 TS+ bracket. Improved off-ball utility as a spot-up shooter and attacking closeouts. Increased usage on-ball in isolation and in the pick-and-roll: pullup jump-shots, pick-and-pop, more rim pressure from greater slashing and rolling working off the improved outside shot.


Paul Pierce's career shooting numbers:

- [1.6 3PM /4.3 3PA] 36.8% 3PT (29.9% of FGAs)
- 80.6% FT
- 41.4% on 10+ feet two-point shots (35.6% of FGAs)

If Kirilenko, Wallace, and Smith are doing those offensive numbers (20-25 ppg, 4-6 apg, 100-105 TS+) to go along with their defense they'd have to be annual All-Star staples in the '00s, right? Paul George (9x AA)/Scottie Pippen (7x AA)/Spurs Kawhi (2x AA) being the best All-Star two-way wing comparisons. Surely All-NBA appearances on the regular. Maybe a top 5 MVP finish here and there depending on narrative and team performance.

[warriorfan]

Peak AK was already a freak I don’t think you need to add any shooting. he just needed some luck with opportunity plus longevity which he didn’t have either.

I saw your other thread about Cooper. I havnt seen enough of him to make a real opinion. Josh smith weighed a lot more than him though yeah? Off what I’ve seen he’s gonna be better laterally than Smith but he’s not gonna be blocking and posterizing like josh smith.

[Im Still Ballin]

Peak AK was already a freak I don’t think you need to add any shooting. he just needed some luck with opportunity plus longevity which he didn’t have either.

I saw your other thread about Cooper. I havnt seen enough of him to make a real opinion. Josh smith weighed a lot more than him though yeah? Off what I’ve seen he’s gonna be better laterally than Smith but he’s not gonna be blocking and posterizing like josh smith.

Cooper is like 205-210 pounds now I think. Will probably be as high as 215 and as low as 205 when drafted at age 18.5. Josh was drafted at age 18.5 and weighed 221. He was listed at 6'8", 195 in high school like Cooper. Looking at their frames, I don't think Cooper is structurally any smaller; he's very wide-built and has thick limbs despite them being long and being lean.

I can't find a weight listing for J-Smoove in his prime but he was probably 240-250 pounds. It was a different era though. I think Cooper will end up 230-240. Around the same weight as Aaron Gordon.

[warriorfan]

Cooper is like 205-210 pounds now I think. Will probably be as high as 215 and as low as 205 when drafted at age 18.5. Josh was drafted at age 18.5 and weighed 221. He was listed at 6'8", 195 in high school like Cooper. Looking at their frames, I don't think Cooper is structurally any smaller; he's very wide-built and has thick limbs despite them being long and being lean.

I can't find a weight listing for J-Smoove in his prime but he was probably 240-250 pounds. It was a different era though. I think Cooper will end up 230-240. Around the same weight as Aaron Gordon.

I think you hit it there with different era. As much as a freak Smith was I think Cooper’s body type will be more advantageous for today’s game.

I need to do more research but do you really think he will fill out to aaron gordon? I don’t really see that and I don’t think it would be good for him. I think it will be best for him to stay lanky but still quick and strong. Scottie Pippen.

[Im Still Ballin]

I think you hit it there with different era. As much as a freak Smith was I think Cooper’s body type will be more advantageous for today’s game.

I need to do more research but do you really think he will fill out to aaron gordon? I don’t really see that and I don’t think it would be good for him. I think it will be best for him to stay lanky but still quick and strong. Scottie Pippen.

Who knows. I mean, Tatum is 225-230 these days and he doesn't look as sturdy as Flagg concerning structure. When I watch Cooper, his frame just looks really big. The width just stands out kind of like how it did for young Luka/Jokic.

https://media.gettyimages.com/id/2160638890/photo/2024-usab-mens-training-camp.jpg?s=612x612&w=gi&k=20&c=LxWIqeNWv54Q-BjTcOn3tQJOMtprqQwSCgAnWgih0Pc=
https://media.gettyimages.com/id/2161276741/photo/2024-usab-mens-training-camp-in-las-vegas.jpg?s=612x612&w=gi&k=20&c=rQhpMKb1OuL1gfzr6EsZa_nDhtoXlTzMFK8mjKraEOU=
https://media.gettyimages.com/id/2160501844/photo/2024-usab-mens-practice.jpg?s=612x612&w=gi&k=20&c=J4kgMXio0KgTSGguZtzVtOn70_IFYUNkR7qTfUfB7w4=

[warriorfan]

Who knows. I mean, Tatum is 225-230 these days and he doesn't look as sturdy as Flagg concerning structure. When I watch Cooper, his frame just looks really big. The width just stands out kind of like how it did for young Luka/Jokic.

Yeah, it’s so hard to project, from what I’ve seen though I know what you mean with wide and study shoulders, when I first saw him I thought he had some young kevin looney body type in him. More athleticism of course. I think everyone is eager to see how he turns out

[Im Still Ballin]

Yeah, it’s so hard to project, from what I’ve seen though I know what you mean with wide and study shoulders, when I first saw him I thought he had some young kevin looney body type in him. More athleticism of course. I think everyone is eager to see how he turns out

I see the Looney body comparison. They've both got that boxy-wide build.

[ralph_i_el]

He definitely has the shoulders to put on a good amount of weight up top.

[iamgine]

To be a good shooter, they'd need to spend a significant amount of time practicing it since they were young. Therefore, they'd not be as good as they were but with added shooting so maybe a better player overall.

[Im Still Ballin]

He definitely has the shoulders to put on a good amount of weight up top.

Thick legs/base too. MWP/Ron Artest had a similarly wide torso and thick yet long limbs. At 6'7" in shoes, he was upwards of 280 pounds in his Houston days playing SF. Here's how he looked at the same age as Cooper:


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wXGClxnEhzU

Cooper isn't going to be as robust as Ron but I think he'll have no problems being 235-240 like Aaron Gordon if he wants to be.

[SouBeachTalents]

Good shooting would make every player better :lol I'm surprised someone like OP would ask such an obvious question.

[Xiao Yao You]

Peak AK was already a freak I don’t think you need to add any shooting. he just needed some luck with opportunity plus longevity which he didn’t have either.

I saw your other thread about Cooper. I havnt seen enough of him to make a real opinion. Josh smith weighed a lot more than him though yeah? Off what I’ve seen he’s gonna be better laterally than Smith but he’s not gonna be blocking and posterizing like josh smith.

You make your own luck. Deron ssid ak went home after practice while others stayed and worked. Probably would have been a better shooter and had less injuries if he had

[Im Still Ballin]

Good shooting would make every player better :lol I'm surprised someone like OP would ask such an obvious question.

But how much better?

Does Josh Smith become a perennial All-Star or even an annual All-NBA player if he could've shot the ball like Paul Pierce? Top 5 player? Multiple-time MVP candidate?

It's not an easy question to answer because 1) it's a hypothetical, and 2) it's hard to say how it changes the other aspects of their game, let alone how they choose to play/play style.

[Im Still Ballin]

You make your own luck. Deron ssid ak went home after practice while others stayed and worked. Probably would have been a better shooter and had less injuries if he had

Didn't Andrei fall out of love with the game once Sloan prioritized Boozer at PF?

[Xiao Yao You]

Didn't Andrei fall out of love with the game once Sloan prioritized Boozer at PF?

Not sure how much he ever loved it. He was certainly at his best at the 4 but sloan preferred his poor mans mailman

[ILLsmak]

Not sure how much he ever loved it. He was certainly at his best at the 4 but sloan preferred his poor mans mailman

I’d prefer AK at the 3 and I remember him making some clutch shots.

But I agree with the general idea. Josh Smith was bad because imo low iq. AK was doing what he thought was right. It probably wasn’t the best for him or people didn’t give him enough time to catch up with his other skills. Then it seems like he was just like well whatever.

He didn’t really have holes in his game except strength. He could have shot better wide, but he seemed like he’d hit about 33-35% in his prime. And like i said he had some clutch moments.

It was partially drive and he probably needed to be featured more. He didn’t have to finish plays, but he should have been more involved consistently. He seemed good when he was.

-Smak

[Im Still Ballin]

Didn't Kirilenko play SF with Malone early on?

He was extremely and immediately impactful according to the play-by-play data and lineup numbers. Highest on-court plus-minus (+8.3) and on/off plus net plus-minus (+15.5). Third-highest minutes played on the season. Featured in 8 of the top 10 lineups. Only 12 lineups were net positive on the season and he was in 9 of them. Adjusting for minutes played makes the Kirilenko lineups stand out even more.

Per Basketball Reference, he played most of his minutes at SF even in his best seasons (2003-04, 2004-05, 2005-06): 55% SF/44% PF.

[Xiao Yao You]

Didn't Kirilenko play SF with Malone early on?

He was extremely and immediately impactful according to the play-by-play data and lineup numbers. Highest on-court plus-minus (+8.3) and on/off plus net plus-minus (+15.5). Third-highest minutes played on the season. Featured in 8 of the top 10 lineups. Only 12 lineups were net positive on the season and he was in 9 of them. Adjusting for minutes played makes the Kirilenko lineups stand out even more.

Per Basketball Reference, he played most of his minutes at SF even in his best seasons (2003-04, 2004-05, 2005-06): 55% SF/44% PF.

They were playing a different offenseduring his all star season

[Im Still Ballin]

Crunched some numbers:


2003-04 to 2005-06 adjusted Andrei Kirilenko with Paul Pierce-level shooting:

17.0 ppg on 60.7% TS (115.2 TS+/15.2% above league average TS%)

2004-05 to 2010-11 adjusted Gerald Wallace with Paul Pierce-level shooting:

17.9 ppg on 61.6% TS (114.2 TS+/14.2% above league average TS%)

2006-07 to 2012-13 adjusted Josh Smith with Paul Pierce-level shooting:

18.8 ppg on 58% TS (107.7 TS+/7.7% above league average TS%)


Paul Pierce's career shooting numbers:

- 36.8% 3PT
- 80.6% FT
- 41.4% on 10+ feet two-point shots (defined as mid-range)

[ILLsmak]

Didn't Kirilenko play SF with Malone early on?

He was extremely and immediately impactful according to the play-by-play data and lineup numbers. Highest on-court plus-minus (+8.3) and on/off plus net plus-minus (+15.5). Third-highest minutes played on the season. Featured in 8 of the top 10 lineups. Only 12 lineups were net positive on the season and he was in 9 of them. Adjusting for minutes played makes the Kirilenko lineups stand out even more.

Per Basketball Reference, he played most of his minutes at SF even in his best seasons (2003-04, 2004-05, 2005-06): 55% SF/44% PF.

Utah was not a fit for him at all. Imagine him on LA with Kobe instead of LO. I think that’s his game, shoot and if you miss, whatever, just be aggressive. I think LO is a better play maker, but I wonder if they gave AK a chance to flesh out his nba skill set.

He seems like a great triangle wing, too.

-Smak

[warriorfan]

From my memory Kirilenko was a RAPM god for a couple of years during that short prime. I wanna say especially the years he played more small forward. In today’s NBA I think he’s almost perfect size for a 4. He was a very unique player.

[Overdrive]

The projection of Cooper Flagg potentially being a version of Kirilenko/Josh Smith/Marion but with upgraded offense/on-ball upside has got me thinking. Just what would those guys have looked like with better shooting? How much better/impactful do they become on offense? How would that have changed their accolades, player rankings, and team performance?

Fun little hypothetical here. Thrall me with your basketball acumen.

Josh Smith, Gerald Wallace, and Andrei Kirilenko were defensively-slanted two-way combo forwards from the '00s. AK47 and J-Smoove are arguably the best non-C, PF, C/PF, PF/C shot-blockers of all time. Of the top 250 BLK% seasons, Andrei has five, Josh has four; and the only other guy on that list who played some SF was Bo Outlaw.

All three had one big flaw on offense: poor shooting. It limited their ability to scale up their scoring and creation with a more primary, on-ball role. Despite this limitation, Andrei, Gerald, and Josh were effective and efficient scorers and playmakers. They were competent enough handling the ball, slashing, cutting, finishing inside, drawing fouls, and passing the ball.







Andre Iguodala and Shawn Marion could also be included in this bunch. However, Marion did display very good shooting early in his career. In 2002-03, Shawn shot 38.7% 3PT on 4.5 attempts, 85.1% FT on 3.6 attempts, and 40.7% 2PT on 7.33 mid-range (10ft+) attempts. His limitations then had more to do with ball handling and passing I think. Averaged 21.1 ppg on 53.8% TS (104 TS+)

2002-03 Marion is a good reference point for what the others may have looked like with better shooting. Scottie Pippen is also another reference point. Although not the best shooter, he was clearly a step above the Kirilenko/Smith/Wallace/Iguodala types. He had a number of seasons scoring around 20-22 ppg and 5-7 apg on around 103-104 TS+.

Safe estimate, I think improved shooting (let's say Paul Pierce-level shooting) would bump them up to the 20-25 ppg, 4-6 apg, 100-105 TS+ bracket. Improved off-ball utility as a spot-up shooter and attacking closeouts. Increased usage on-ball in isolation and in the pick-and-roll: pullup jump-shots, pick-and-pop, more rim pressure from greater slashing and rolling working off the improved outside shot.



If Kirilenko, Wallace, and Smith are doing those offensive numbers (20-25 ppg, 4-6 apg, 100-105 TS+) to go along with their defense they'd have to be annual All-Star staples in the '00s, right? Paul George (9x AA)/Scottie Pippen (7x AA)/Spurs Kawhi (2x AA) being the best All-Star two-way wing comparisons. Surely All-NBA appearances on the regular. Maybe a top 5 MVP finish here and there depending on narrative and team performance.

Although the numbers don't really show it there's a difference between Iggy, AK, Pippen, Marion on one hand and Smith/Wallace on the other. The latter where known to make bone headed plays on offense while the first played teambasketball.

What amazes me looking at the numbers it isn't that noticeable. Especially looking at AK's. Low shooting with a bad A/T implies bad shot selection, but just from memory AK and Smith weren't as close as the numbers seem to show.

[Im Still Ballin]

Utah was not a fit for him at all. Imagine him on LA with Kobe instead of LO. I think that’s his game, shoot and if you miss, whatever, just be aggressive. I think LO is a better play maker, but I wonder if they gave AK a chance to flesh out his nba skill set.

He seems like a great triangle wing, too.

-Smak

I agree. AK47 would've been great in the triangle with his quick attacking off-the-catch, off-ball movement, cutting, and quick connective-tissue passing/touch passing to cutters.

[warriorfan]

His versatility could be interesting if he’s able to slip between the 3 and 4. It depends what team he was drafted too I guess.

Hmm imagine if he went to the Wolves somehow. Could they run Ant, McDaniels, Flagg, Towns, Gobert?

Damn. Stifling

[Xiao Yao You]

Speaking of ak taylor hendricks reminds me a bit of ak with his defensive energy. More raw than 21 year old ak joining the jazz. Better shooter. Better rebounder probably. Not the playmaker ak was but we didnt really see that much until he was the man in his 3rd year.