diamenz
11-14-2024, 11:11 PM
unlike joe biden and the rest of his neocon friends, trump seems to understand that putin has effectively won the war... or at least isn't in complete denial about it. i mean, anyone can take a look at the battlefield and it's plain to see what russia has taken and holds up to this point isn't in dispute. it's only a matter of time before the russians take the capital.
what i don't think trump understands is that in order to achieve peace, putin is going to demand three absolute terms and there won't be much room for flexibility or negotiation.
- ukraine neutrality and a written agreement that nato will discontinue pushing for it's membership, indefinitely.
- that russia holds on to the ukrainian (historically russian) territory that it's so far taken, including crimea.
- that the us and collective west cut all security ties to ukraine and install a moscow-friendly government. in addition to that, pull out of ukraine completely - including any american soldiers in ukrainian uniform, cia guys etc.
from a russian standpoint these terms are absolute and non-negotiable as putin sees all three as existential threats. if these demands aren't met, russia will reject any peace agreement, ultimately march into kiev - kill or capture zelensky and take over the capital.
for argument's sake let's say these demands are met. what will trump ask for in return? really only one thing...
considering the situation in the ME and the unprecedented influence of the israel lobby, trump will demand a freehand to do whatever the israelis want for security and supremacy in the region - he'll demand that putin cut all ties and withdraw from iran in order to allow the israelis (and unfortunately us) to achieve that objective. not going to happen. iran holds strategic influence with not only russia but the brics countries as a whole due to it's oil & gas wealth, geographical importance and sheer size/population; and russia won't stand idly by and watch it be destroyed. 100% outta the question.
something else rump may try to do is to try to drive some sort of a wedge between russia and china. also not gonna happen - the relationship that's been forged between those two countries are mutually beneficial both militarily and economically. not to mention amongst the bigger picture of the brics alliance.
trump may offer to lift sanctions but the russians could probably care less as they've learned to do business with not only china but the rest of the world so there's no leverage there.
tldr/bottom line is - russia holds all of the cards here. the west has next to no hand or leverage. to the extent to which trump recognizes this fact and what he'll be willing to concede to is anyone's guess. at any rate, what i worry is that trump, with whatever terms that he decides to bring to the table are refused, that he'll end up ultimately doubling down and continue to support ukraine.
and then of course in that scenario if we end up in a hot war with iran, that opens up a whole new can of worms on the global stage aka ww3 but that's a story for another day.
what i don't think trump understands is that in order to achieve peace, putin is going to demand three absolute terms and there won't be much room for flexibility or negotiation.
- ukraine neutrality and a written agreement that nato will discontinue pushing for it's membership, indefinitely.
- that russia holds on to the ukrainian (historically russian) territory that it's so far taken, including crimea.
- that the us and collective west cut all security ties to ukraine and install a moscow-friendly government. in addition to that, pull out of ukraine completely - including any american soldiers in ukrainian uniform, cia guys etc.
from a russian standpoint these terms are absolute and non-negotiable as putin sees all three as existential threats. if these demands aren't met, russia will reject any peace agreement, ultimately march into kiev - kill or capture zelensky and take over the capital.
for argument's sake let's say these demands are met. what will trump ask for in return? really only one thing...
considering the situation in the ME and the unprecedented influence of the israel lobby, trump will demand a freehand to do whatever the israelis want for security and supremacy in the region - he'll demand that putin cut all ties and withdraw from iran in order to allow the israelis (and unfortunately us) to achieve that objective. not going to happen. iran holds strategic influence with not only russia but the brics countries as a whole due to it's oil & gas wealth, geographical importance and sheer size/population; and russia won't stand idly by and watch it be destroyed. 100% outta the question.
something else rump may try to do is to try to drive some sort of a wedge between russia and china. also not gonna happen - the relationship that's been forged between those two countries are mutually beneficial both militarily and economically. not to mention amongst the bigger picture of the brics alliance.
trump may offer to lift sanctions but the russians could probably care less as they've learned to do business with not only china but the rest of the world so there's no leverage there.
tldr/bottom line is - russia holds all of the cards here. the west has next to no hand or leverage. to the extent to which trump recognizes this fact and what he'll be willing to concede to is anyone's guess. at any rate, what i worry is that trump, with whatever terms that he decides to bring to the table are refused, that he'll end up ultimately doubling down and continue to support ukraine.
and then of course in that scenario if we end up in a hot war with iran, that opens up a whole new can of worms on the global stage aka ww3 but that's a story for another day.