Cenk vs Lichtman

[ILLsmak]

https://youtu.be/zdt_OHKyzU4?si=R5tFv8zJnDpMX_ha&t=650

Too funny. Had to share. What a clown. Tbh his keys might not be bad in theory, but he gave Kam shit she didn’t really have.

-Smak

[1987_Lakers]

I saw this yesterday. I didn't realize how crazy/fragile Lichtman actually is. :oldlol:


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GGaYdPHszBQ

[Bill Gates]

This election probably ended Lichtman's career, but his keys did predict Trump in 2016 which gave him notoriety.

The reason his keys failed this go, is because RL reality does not match the reality in the voter's head this go. It is that in real life, the economy is absolutely booming. We have never had this high a percentage of wealthy people, the job market is booming, inflation down, stock market all time highs, wages up, etc. Every economic metric you can find is booming, and I am 100% positive you are going to hear Trump brag about that come January.

Under any normal circumstances, this would win reelection.

But in the average voter's head? It is "EVERYONE IS STRUGGLING EXCEPT FOR ME"

Why that is? Hard to say, IMO it is mostly because of the internet. Viral videos of homelessness in California and other things of that nature selling a false reality for so many. Making things seem way more dire than they are. Egg prices being high went viral for some weird reason. In the past, we didn't have social media to spread all this fear mongering around like we do today.

[1987_Lakers]

This election probably ended Lichtman's career, but his keys did predict Trump in 2016 which gave him notoriety.

The reason his keys failed this go, is because RL reality does not match the reality in the voter's head this go. It is that in real life, the economy is absolutely booming. We have never had this high a percentage of wealthy people, the job market is booming, inflation down, stock market all time highs, wages up, etc. Every economic metric you can find is booming, and I am 100% positive you are going to hear Trump brag about that come January.

Under any normal circumstances, this would win reelection.

But in the average voter's head? It is "EVERYONE IS STRUGGLING EXCEPT FOR ME"

Why that is? Hard to say, IMO it is mostly because of the internet. Viral videos of homelessness in California and other things of that nature selling a false reality for so many. Making things seem way more dire than they are. Egg prices being high went viral for some weird reason. In the past, we didn't have social media to spread all this fear mongering around like we do today.

This dude is upset about egg prices being used as fear mongering when MSNBC literally called one of Trump's rallies a Nazi rally.


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7YMZFjJy0Ks

[Patrick Chewing]

https://media.tenor.com/Sin0DOO2uMcAAAAM/trump-trump-dance.gif

[Bill Gates]

That MSNBC clip doesn't mean anything to Lichtman's keys though. The economic indicators do.

I am trying to explain why his keys failed this time when they always came through.

[Bill Gates]

Again, under normal circumstances, an economy in this current state would do the trick. The economy is always #1 for most, every election.

https://www.pewresearch.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/20/2024/09/PP_2024.9.9_harris-trump_2-01.png




And the reason the keys failed, is because the economic reality does not match what the voter believes.

When most are surveyed on the issue, it comes down to "EVERYONE IS STRUGGLING EXCEPT FOR ME"

That is how the right leaning posters in here are too. So many of you brag about being wealthy, having a high paying job, etc. But if anyone asks you about the state of the economy you think it's in the shitter despite the fact that you're doing just great.

[SouBeachTalents]

I'm not disputing Bill's points about how on paper, the economy seems to be doing well, but there are definitely many current factors that aren't shown in stats like that. Something like 60% of the American population lives paycheck to paycheck, while inflation has cooled from 2-3 years ago, essentials like groceries are still more expensive than consumers are used to, plus many Americans feel completely locked out of the housing market due to the housing crisis facing the country. Those are all legitimate economic concerns that people have that aren't going to be superseded by the unemployment numbers or how the stock market's doing.

[Bill Gates]

I'm not disputing Bill's points about how on paper, the economy seems to be doing well, but there are definitely many current factors that aren't shown in stats like that. Something like 60% of the American population lives paycheck to paycheck, while inflation has cooled from 2-3 years ago, essentials like groceries are still more expensive than consumers are used to, plus many Americans feel completely locked out of the housing market due to the housing crisis facing the country. Those are all legitimate economic concerns that people have that aren't going to be superseded by the unemployment numbers or how the stock market's doing.

The paycheck-to-paycheck is more or less where it has always been though. We have always had a high % that make that claim. That isn't new.

The only one issue that I do think it very real, is that housing prices skyrocketed and still have not come down. So for young people it is very difficult to find a home. But even with that issue, you have all the middle-aged homeowners who made out splendidly and saw their home investment sky rocket. Which in turn allows them to make giant home equity loans and boost the economy more.

So perhaps wealthy homeowners are seeing their 30 year old nephew still living with their parents and that helps boost the idea "everyone is struggling but me"

[Bill Gates]

So yeah, you have Lichtman's keys which say "ECONOMY IS GREAT!"

And you have the voter's mindset which say "Everything SouBeachTalents just posted"



That is why the keys failed. And it isn't normal.

[ZenMaster]

This election probably ended Lichtman's career, but his keys did predict Trump in 2016 which gave him notoriety.

The reason his keys failed this go, is because RL reality does not match the reality in the voter's head this go. It is that in real life, the economy is absolutely booming. We have never had this high a percentage of wealthy people, the job market is booming, inflation down, stock market all time highs, wages up, etc. Every economic metric you can find is booming, and I am 100% positive you are going to hear Trump brag about that come January.

Under any normal circumstances, this would win reelection.

But in the average voter's head? It is "EVERYONE IS STRUGGLING EXCEPT FOR ME"

Why that is? Hard to say, IMO it is mostly because of the internet. Viral videos of homelessness in California and other things of that nature selling a false reality for so many. Making things seem way more dire than they are. Egg prices being high went viral for some weird reason. In the past, we didn't have social media to spread all this fear mongering around like we do today.

It's probably the other way around. You see yourself as average, but you're actually pretty well off

The average household has the same income today as 5 years ago, but everything is way more expensive. Last quarter reported saw a decline in jobs available within the private sector, and that was before revisions. The corporate economy is great though and it can continue to be for a long while if you keep letting companies off shore their jobs and produce cheaply in other countries, but at some point the well will dry out.

[Charlie Sheen]

Cenk reveals his true motive around 5 minutes in the video... talking about dude is arrogant and in not so many words made him feel stupid before. The kind of person that holds onto that for this long is a real lowlife.

[Bill Gates]

It's probably the other way around. You see yourself as average, but you're actually pretty well off

The average household has the same income today as 5 years ago, but everything is way more expensive. Last quarter reported saw a decline in jobs available within the private sector, and that was before revisions. The corporate economy is great though and it can continue to be for a long while if you keep letting companies off shore their jobs and produce cheaply in other countries, but at some point the well will dry out.

That is off, the average household has way more wealth than just 5 years ago

https://moneyguy.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/11/moneyguy-chart-household-networth-1989-2022-1024x575.gif


And that is adjusted for inflation too.


10% of all US adults are millionaires now. That wasn't a thing 5 years ago. Being a millionaire is common now, it isn't even note worthy.

The only thing you are probably correct about, is that many "well-off" people probably do not understand that they are well off. We are a very spoiled nation. Most of us don't really understand what a real struggle is.

[Media Moderator]

That was brutal to watch :oldlol:

I thought the the guy's toupee was going to fly off. He lost the argument the second he started popping off about the amount of books he has published.

[Media Moderator]

Whatever the case may be on the economy, you need to focus on the middle class and small business to see why Trump won. The working class are used to being poor and they've seen their wages rise plus increased benefits and programs from the government. The rich are also doing very well because of an increase in stocks, professional wages and asset values. Trump won solidly with the middle class and overwhelmingly with small business owners. They are who pushed Trump over the top so that's where you need to focus on to figure out why he won

[ArbitraryWater]

Cenk absolutely on point

[ZenMaster]

That is off, the average household has way more wealth than just 5 years ago


And that is adjusted for inflation too.


10% of all US adults are millionaires now. That wasn't a thing 5 years ago. Being a millionaire is common now, it isn't even note worthy.

The only thing you are probably correct about, is that many "well-off" people probably do not understand that they are well off. We are a very spoiled nation. Most of us don't really understand what a real struggle is.

I think we already did this dance a few months ago, you use numbers which includes billionaires and come out with an average that's far from what most Americans experience.

80K per household is the real number for the average American, same as in 2019.

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MEHOINUSA672N

[Media Moderator]

I think we already did this dance a few months ago, you use numbers which includes billionaires and come out with an average that's far from what most Americans experience.

80K per household is the real number for the average American, same as in 2019.

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MEHOINUSA672N

Yep like I pointed out in my post below this. The working class poor are doing slightly better and the rich are doing fantastic. That's the blue base. Its middle class and small business that are getting squeezed, and that's exactly who are carrying Trump. Big business was salivating at Kamala getting into office so she could smash the pesky small business owners with more emissions and labor regulations that only deep pockets can roll with

[Bill Gates]

I think we already did this dance a few months ago, you use numbers which includes billionaires and come out with an average that's far from what most Americans experience.

80K per household is the real number for the average American, same as in 2019.

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MEHOINUSA672N

This is income and not net worth, but do you know how to read this graph? It's in 2023 C-CPI-U inflation adjusted dollars. It is actually showing that US consumers are doing very well.

[ZenMaster]

This is income and not net worth, but do you know how to read this graph? It's in 2023 C-CPI-U inflation adjusted dollars. It is actually showing that US consumers are doing very well.

I forgot to add the word "income" to my post is all.
You said the economy is booming by every metric, I showed you that househould income isn't booming at all, but we all know that every day prices are up.
Another example is the job market, you said this is booming too, but the official unemployment rate has increased 17% since Nov 2019.

Median net worth is up you're right, but it's driven by an increase in house prices and retirement accounts and the lowest 20% income bracket still only has a median net worth of 14K, which is the equivalent of owning a 20K car(the most common asset in the US) with 6K still to pay off.
It's great that home owners now have their homes worth more, but if you sell it then the next one you buy is going to be equally as expensive. And money on your retirement account is value you won't realize until you're old and everyone is at risk of never seeing this money by dying younger. So that money isn't going to help offset the increase in every day expenses and it shouldn't either, as it's money you need when you're old and without monthly income.

[Bill Gates]

I forgot to add the word "income" to my post is all.
You said the economy is booming by every metric, I showed you that househould income isn't booming at all, but we all know that every day prices are up.
Another example is the job market, you said this is booming too, but the official unemployment rate has increased 17% since Nov 2019.

Median net worth is up you're right, but it's driven by an increase in house prices and retirement accounts and the lowest 20% income bracket still only has a median net worth of 14K, which is the equivalent of owning a 20K car(the most common asset in the US) with 6K still to pay off.
It's great that home owners now have their homes worth more, but if you sell it then the next one you buy is going to be equally as expensive. And money on your retirement account is value you won't realize until you're old and everyone is at risk of never seeing this money by dying younger. So that money isn't going to help offset the increase in every day expenses and it shouldn't either, as it's money you need when you're old and without monthly income.

It is up though. That graph you just posted is in 2023 C-CPI-U Dollars. That is how much purchasing power households have. Relative to how much other items cost (in 2023 CPI adjusted dollars) Today's households can buy more than yesterday's households.

We don't even need to debate this, because my entire point is that Lichtman's keys failed because the average voter thinks like you do, yet every metric says the opposite. It is a very unusual situation. Normally when all the data is going this well, it is acknowledged. But today you have everyone declaring things are awful despite the data.



It will be very interesting to see if you and others still hold these same opinions a few months into Trump's term. I can tell you this, as long as the numbers stay this good, I won't be flip flopping on my views of the economy. And I highly doubt that Trump can keep everything where it is now. We are much closer to the ceiling than we are to the floor, way more room to go down than up.

[Bill Gates]

https://www.whitehouse.gov/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/Picture2_322474.png



And of all the metrics out there, this one is the most meaningful.

GDP to the moon.

Where is that recession? We nailed the soft landing hard. We are creating more wealth than any other nation is.

The entire rest of the world wishes they were doing as well as us.

[Charlie Sheen]

I think highwhey hit the nail on the head in the thread where he posted his ballot...

When voters are talking about the economy most are not looking at gdp or taking a broad view. It is about what is best for their wallet in the short term. No one cares tcja was enacted under 45 anymore... 2017 is ancient history :lol Biden/Harris had 4 years to repeal the salt cap and the taxpayers that itemize were done with that ticket in any variant.

[Bill Gates]

I think highwhey hit the nail on the head in the thread where he posted his ballot...

When voters are talking about the economy most are not looking at gdp or taking a broad view. It is about what is best for their wallet in the short term. No one cares tcja was enacted under 45 anymore... 2017 is ancient history :lol Biden/Harris had 4 years to repeal the salt cap and the taxpayers that itemize were done with that ticket in any variant.


When surveyed most declare that their own wallets are fine, but they believe everyone else is struggling.

And ask anyone in here, that will likely be the same story. "I'm doing great, but everyone else is clearly hurting".

Meanwhile airports are reporting record travel numbers despite business trips not being needed as much due to remote. There are more vacations than ever. It's just that all the people vacationing feel like they are a lucky exception.

[Charlie Sheen]

When surveyed most declare that their own wallets are fine, but they believe everyone else is struggling.

And ask anyone in here, that will likely be the same story. "I'm doing great, but everyone else is clearly hurting".

Meanwhile airports are reporting record travel numbers despite business trips not being needed as much due to remote. There are more vacations than ever. It's just that all the people vacationing feel like they are a lucky exception.

Kind of like the gambler who never loses :lol

I jumped into the middle of the conversation you were having with Zen. NOT suggesting anyone who stands to gain from salt cap expiring is struggling. More that the Trump campaign promises made to this group were worlds more realistic than Harris selling home ownership 4all and taxing unrealized cg and that showed up on election day.

[ZenMaster]

It is up though. That graph you just posted is in 2023 C-CPI-U Dollars. That is how much purchasing power households have. Relative to how much other items cost (in 2023 CPI adjusted dollars) Today's households can buy more than yesterday's households.

We don't even need to debate this, because my entire point is that Lichtman's keys failed because the average voter thinks like you do, yet every metric says the opposite. It is a very unusual situation. Normally when all the data is going this well, it is acknowledged. But today you have everyone declaring things are awful despite the data.


The average voter showing compassion for the bottom 20% of people financially is a good thing.

I showed you that the last jobs report had negative job growth in the private sector and that unemployment rate is up 17% since 5 years ago, you coming back with a GDP chart says it all, which is that you don't care about people. That GDP btw isn't near high enough for the US budget not to be in a deficit and adding to the overall debt, for which the interest payment is hitting 1 trillion(and if you understand how compounding interests work, you'll know that it won't be long until it's 2 trillion).

Chick Stern already said it, but people not doing well aren't likely to talk about it publicly. Even so, here on ISH you have people like bladed, living at home jobless as a half cripple and RRR3 selling petty amounts of weed to get through the day who shared these kinds of stories.

[Bill Gates]

The average voter showing compassion for the bottom 20% of people financially is a good thing.

I showed you that the last jobs report had negative job growth in the private sector and that unemployment rate is up 17% since 5 years ago, you coming back with a GDP chart says it all, which is that you don't care about people. That GDP btw isn't near high enough for the US budget not to be in a deficit and adding to the overall debt, for which the interest payment is hitting 1 trillion(and if you understand how compounding interests work, you'll know that it won't be long until it's 2 trillion).

Chick Stern already said it, but people not doing well aren't likely to talk about it publicly. Even so, here on ISH you have people like bladed, living at home jobless as a half cripple and RRR3 selling petty amounts of weed to get through the day who shared these kinds of stories.

The unemployment rate is at 4.1% which is extremely low historically speaking and Joe Biden had the lowest overall unemployment rate we've seen in the last 54 years. Odds are strong that Trump will not see unemployment that low during his 4 years.

[Media Moderator]

The unemployment rate is at 4.1% which is extremely low historically speaking and Joe Biden had the lowest overall unemployment rate we've seen in the last 54 years. Odds are strong that Trump will not see unemployment that low during his 4 years.

Yeah you aren't too bright are you? Have you been paying attention to the news? Higher unemployment generally affects the working class the most. Trump is already planning mass deportations. If unemployment rises you can bet his plans are going to move along even faster. There are also not insignificant numbers of illegals aliens in skilled trade and small business that can benefit many middle class citizens too by deporting illegals and opening up the market

https://media1.tenor.com/m/0vI6knkuIr8AAAAd/donaldtrump-youhavetogoback.gif

[BarberSchool]

Çenk is the only voice on that panel with any hint of the pulse of the world population. The rest are varying gradations of self-absorbed delusion. Lichtman being by far the most detached and delusional. No surprise there.

[BarberSchool]

Yeah you aren't too bright are you? Have you been paying attention to the news? Higher unemployment generally affects the working class the most. Trump is already planning mass deportations. If unemployment rises you can bet his plans are going to move along even faster. There are also not insignificant numbers of illegals aliens in skilled trade and small business that can benefit many middle class citizens too by deporting illegals and opening up the market

https://media1.tenor.com/m/0vI6knkuIr8AAAAd/donaldtrump-youhavetogoback.gif
Stop thinking posters like that are stupid.
They’re not stupid. They’re just maniacally subversively destructive on purpose.
It’s their nature.

[Media Moderator]

Lichtman just rage quit X he was getting trashed so badly. Started up a new account with Blue sky where it's a friendlier crowd. Hmmm he rage quit X just like a certain mod here rage quit the political forum after the election. :D

[BigKobeFan]

This idiot should admit that he is wrong but not his model. His model is all subjective anyways so he can just blame his own bias instead of blaming misinformation

[Bill Gates]

This idiot should admit that he is wrong but not his model. His model is all subjective anyways so he can just blame his own bias instead of blaming misinformation

The model has no bias and the entire reason it got so much attention is because Lichtman was one of the only ones who predicted Trump to win in 2016, using his model.

Cenk and others like you mistook it for bias and got triggered by it, thus the name calling.

[BigKobeFan]

The model has no bias and the entire reason it got so much attention is because Lichtman was one of the only ones who predicted Trump to win in 2016, using his model.

Cenk and others like you mistook it for bias and got triggered by it, thus the name calling.

His entire model is subjective without any ounce of an objective calculation

[Bill Gates]

His entire model is subjective without any ounce of an objective calculation
Some of the keys are a little bit subjective. Some are not. But I do not think that he decided based on bias, when he picked Trump to win in 2016 to everyone's dismay. There is a video you can watch where he goes over every key and why he picked who he did for each one.

[ZenMaster]

The unemployment rate is at 4.1% which is extremely low historically speaking and Joe Biden had the lowest overall unemployment rate we've seen in the last 54 years. Odds are strong that Trump will not see unemployment that low during his 4 years.

From 3.4 start of last year to 4.1 now represents about 1.5 million more people fired than hired in the period.