Im Still Ballin
12-13-2024, 09:47 PM
His BPM is +7.2 (4.2 OBPM; 3.0 DBPM). That's 5th-best in the league for qualifying players. He'd be 4th or 3rd if his TS%/rim% was what it was last season.
https://i.ibb.co/rwyY3Lk/Syvl57k.png
He's 19th in seasonal EPM right now with +3.7 (+1.8 off; +1.7 def), above guys like Morant, Mitchell, Butler, LaMelo, Edwards, and Durant. Slightly below Anthony Davis (+3.8) and Darius Garland (+3.8).
He's the best current player example of how it's not all about TS%/shooting efficiency. The advanced stats and one-number metrics love him regardless of his 53.8% TS. His true shooting percentage is low because his 0-3 feet and 3-10 feet percentages are way down compared to usual:
2024-25
0-3 feet: 59.1% FG; 3-10 feet: 43.9% FG
2023-24
0-3 feet: 69.0% FG; 3-10 feet: 49.6% FG
Career
0-3 feet: 66.9% FG; 3-10 feet: 47.3% FG
As for why these numbers are down I'm not sure. I've heard maybe it could be due to weight loss and/or poor team spacing. Or it could just be a small sample size. We'll see.
By far the most interesting development, however, has been Alperen's defense. He's the starting center on the 2nd-ranked, -7.9 rDRtg defense. I don't think you'll ever see Nikola or Domantas on a top defense like that.
Sengun is 12th in DFGA per NBA.com, so he's contesting a lot of shots/getting targeted plenty.
7.9 DFGM / 17.4 DFGA (-2.3% DFG differential)
The numbers get better when you isolate for only DFGs within 6 feet and 10 feet of the basket:
0-6 feet: 4.7 DFGM / 8.6 DFGA (-7.5% DFG differential) [49.7% of all DFGA]
0-10 feet: 5.4 DFGM / 10.2 DFGA (-5.1% DFG differential) [58.6% of all DFGA]
The closer-in shots are more telling because there's luck/variance at play with regard to perimeter shots. Alperen's paint defense player-tracking numbers look good.
This defensive development changes his potential/ceiling outlook for me with regard to his perceived archetype. He was grouped in with Sabonis and Jokic as a limited defender who'd have to compensate with really good offense. It's looking like he may be closer to someone like Zubac on defense, and that somewhat lowers the requirements on offense. He doesn't have to be otherworldly offensively because he's a genuine positive on defense.
https://i.ibb.co/rwyY3Lk/Syvl57k.png
He's 19th in seasonal EPM right now with +3.7 (+1.8 off; +1.7 def), above guys like Morant, Mitchell, Butler, LaMelo, Edwards, and Durant. Slightly below Anthony Davis (+3.8) and Darius Garland (+3.8).
He's the best current player example of how it's not all about TS%/shooting efficiency. The advanced stats and one-number metrics love him regardless of his 53.8% TS. His true shooting percentage is low because his 0-3 feet and 3-10 feet percentages are way down compared to usual:
2024-25
0-3 feet: 59.1% FG; 3-10 feet: 43.9% FG
2023-24
0-3 feet: 69.0% FG; 3-10 feet: 49.6% FG
Career
0-3 feet: 66.9% FG; 3-10 feet: 47.3% FG
As for why these numbers are down I'm not sure. I've heard maybe it could be due to weight loss and/or poor team spacing. Or it could just be a small sample size. We'll see.
By far the most interesting development, however, has been Alperen's defense. He's the starting center on the 2nd-ranked, -7.9 rDRtg defense. I don't think you'll ever see Nikola or Domantas on a top defense like that.
Sengun is 12th in DFGA per NBA.com, so he's contesting a lot of shots/getting targeted plenty.
7.9 DFGM / 17.4 DFGA (-2.3% DFG differential)
The numbers get better when you isolate for only DFGs within 6 feet and 10 feet of the basket:
0-6 feet: 4.7 DFGM / 8.6 DFGA (-7.5% DFG differential) [49.7% of all DFGA]
0-10 feet: 5.4 DFGM / 10.2 DFGA (-5.1% DFG differential) [58.6% of all DFGA]
The closer-in shots are more telling because there's luck/variance at play with regard to perimeter shots. Alperen's paint defense player-tracking numbers look good.
This defensive development changes his potential/ceiling outlook for me with regard to his perceived archetype. He was grouped in with Sabonis and Jokic as a limited defender who'd have to compensate with really good offense. It's looking like he may be closer to someone like Zubac on defense, and that somewhat lowers the requirements on offense. He doesn't have to be otherworldly offensively because he's a genuine positive on defense.