The 3pt shooting getting out of hand has made betting more unpredictable

[highwhey]

not that betting on any team was a sure thing previously, but with it being recently kosher in the states and sanctioned by the NBA brass themselves, seems quite careless that they allow the product to be so diluted. you could reasonably bet on certain teams to pull a W against certain matchups, but now with every team launching 40 3pt shots a game, it's incredibly unpredictable. and it's not like the NFL where it's due to parity, it's moreso a matter of who's shots are falling in. the wiz beat the nuggets the other night LOL. no team is safe anymore, it literally comes down to who makes the most 3s that particular night. orlando beat phoenix without wagner and banchero....:roll: it seems like for regular season games, defense doesn't even matter. how are you going to stop people from shooting 40-50 3pt shots.

or does this benefit casinos?

[Real Men Wear Green]

I haven't paid attention to the history of betting trends but there are three teams out there that are winning 80% of the time or better worth 10+ point differential. Betting lines get moved around to adjust for thin js but I would guess those three teams present good bets often. The(obvious) team I follow win about 80% of the time last regular season, 80% of the time in the postseason, and are again winning 4 out of 5 games this season.

[Phoenix]

Generally speaking I don't think the 3 has made it that unpredictable to bet on whose gonna win a playoff series. Maybe the odd regular season game in January, the Wizards may hit 20 in one night and beat the Bucks, but I don't think that's going to translate over a 7 game series. Basically the generally better team with better players will win. We haven't seen a case yet, to my memory, where a team by all measures worse caught fire over a series to beat a team they had no business beating. What we instead have are teams that don't have good enough shooters taking 35 attempts at 31%, basically hoping for that one night they can keep it close and the ball bounces their way.

[ArbitraryWater]

Yea, Hawks can beat and lose to anyone.

Its all just quite random.

Not in a BO7 series ofc.

Its harder to just skate by on hot shooting over that sample.

[PistonsFan#21]

Generally speaking I don't think the 3 has made it that unpredictable to bet on whose gonna win a playoff series. Maybe the odd regular season game in January, the Wizards may hit 20 in one night and beat the Bucks, but I don't think that's going to translate over a 7 game series. Basically the generally better team with better players will win. We haven't seen a case yet, to my memory, where a team by all measures worse caught fire over a series to beat a team they had no business beating. What we instead have are teams that don't have good enough shooters taking 35 attempts at 31%, basically hoping for that one night they can keep it close and the ball bounces their way.

The series that comes to mind is the 1st round 2007 western conference. 8th seed Warriors were 42-40 and 1st seed Dallas finished regular season 67-15. Not sure about the advanced metrics but i assume Dallas were dominating those too.

[Nowoco]

The series that comes to mind is the 1st round 2007 western conference. 8th seed Warriors were 42-40 and 1st seed Dallas finished regular season 67-15. Not sure about the advanced metrics but i assume Dallas were dominating those too.

That wasn't as big an upset as it sounds. The Warriors were 3-0 vs the Mavs that regular season, two of them blowouts.

They had the Mavs number and proved it in the playoffs.

[Phoenix]

The series that comes to mind is the 1st round 2007 western conference. 8th seed Warriors were 42-40 and 1st seed Dallas finished regular season 67-15. Not sure about the advanced metrics but i assume Dallas were dominating those too.

I'm referring to recent years during this 3point revolution, there hasn't been a team that's upset a much better team in a 7 game series by catching fire from 3. Sorry if that wasn't clear before....

But, just to reply to your example, I would put the 8th seed Nuggets over the 1st seed Sonics in 94 as a much bigger upset.

[highwhey]

Generally speaking I don't think the 3 has made it that unpredictable to bet on whose gonna win a playoff series. Maybe the odd regular season game in January, the Wizards may hit 20 in one night and beat the Bucks, but I don't think that's going to translate over a 7 game series. Basically the generally better team with better players will win. We haven't seen a case yet, to my memory, where a team by all measures worse caught fire over a series to beat a team they had no business beating. What we instead have are teams that don't have good enough shooters taking 35 attempts at 31%, basically hoping for that one night they can keep it close and the ball bounces their way.

not a playoff series bc the defense and offensive schemes are completely different, but thats why i said regular season.

[ArbitraryWater]

That wasn't as big an upset as it sounds. The Warriors were 3-0 vs the Mavs that regular season, two of them blowouts.

They had the Mavs number and proved it in the playoffs.


That last loss was the Mavs 2nd last game, they ended the season with a b2b and the GSW game was the first night, they played their bench.

I forgot specifics but iirc they tried to push GSW ahead of the lakers by doing so.

They ended tied though and lakers had the H2H.

Crazy bizarre season and H2H dynamics.

67-15 and 20% of the losses was GSW.

Maybe even crazier is they started 0-4(1 loss to GSW) and then went 67-11.


GSW coach Don Nelson was the previous Mavs coach.

GSW players got healthy at the right time.

It was the perfect storm for an 8 vs 1 upset.

[Nowoco]

GSW coach Don Nelson was the previous Mavs coach.

GSW players got healthy at the right time.

It was the perfect storm for an 8 vs 1 upset.

GSW also finished the season 9-1.

[ArbitraryWater]

GSW also finished the season 9-1.


Yup, they got everyone healthy by the end.

[Axe]

Not surprising anymore.