Should we all be betting on LeBron score double digits every single game?

[Kblaze8855]

I saw online somebody had bet $9000. The bet only pays 500 and change but it’s the most reliable bet in sports. The last time you would’ve lost was like 18 years ago. With the odds of that particular site the way the math worked out was you make the 9000 back after 16-17 games. Then you just reinvest that of course.

It was one of those sites where if he gets hurt and leaves the game and doesn’t return as long as it happens in the first half the bet is void.

You have to think that eventually he’s not going to make it but anyone who pays attention sees no matter what he will stat pad to ten before he leaves the game if at all possible.

He is notoriously cheap and money hungry. I would love to find out he has had a proxy betting on himself and reinvesting the winnings all this time.

If numbers that Large wouldnt draw scrutiny it could absolutely be the source of a couple hundred million of his net worth.

You only have to make it 16 games to not be burned. But it would suck to be the first one to get burned and lose it all.

[Kblaze8855]

https://www.hostpic.org/images/2412180022350377.jpeg

[Kblaze8855]

At that rate, you can make 75 to 100,000 a year only having to risk the principal for the first three weeks or so.

and that’s assuming you don’t up the bet once you’re playing with House money.

If you can afford to lose $10,000 is there a good reason not to try this Other than him being old?

[Carbine]

Try and it let us know how it goes.

[Carbine]

In all seriousness, seems like a pretty safe bet. Even if he goes under it three times the remainder of the year you still come out even or slightly ahead right?

[Neal Romer]

Well obviously any bet can be made to seem obvious and easy with hindsight. But it's not about how many times it's paid off before, it's about whether it will next time and thats the risk you take. It's not as guaranteed in the moment as it seems to have been once it's happened a hundred times in a row.

But to your point, it takes money to make money. If you've got $9k to risk on amusement and a 500 dollar payout, I mean I guess there's no harm, altho if you can afford to burn 9k for that how thrilling is a 500 payout gonna be? If your plan is to do it every day and keep stacking 500 at a time, the odds will eventually catch up with you and you'll lose all the profit youve been making with one 9k burn.

Theres no formula that's gonna consistently win you money against the house, if there was theyd have already identified those bets and eliminated them. It's called gambling for a reason.

[Neal Romer]

Bottom line: If youve got spare money you want to do something exciting with, just reach out to me instead. Ive got creative investment opportunities you'll be sure to love.

[ArbitraryWater]

Well obviously any bet can be made to seem obvious and easy with hindsight. But it's not about how many times it's paid off before, it's about whether it will next time and thats the risk you take. It's not as guaranteed in the moment as it seems to have been once it's happened a hundred times in a row.

But to your point, it takes money to make money. If you've got $9k to risk on amusement and a 500 dollar payout, I mean I guess there's no harm, altho if you can afford to burn 9k for that how thrilling is a 500 payout gonna be? If your plan is to do it every day and keep stacking 500 at a time, the odds will eventually catch up with you and you'll lose all the profit youve been making with one 9k burn.

Theres no formula that's gonna consistently win you money against the house, if there was theyd have already identified those bets and eliminated them. It's called gambling for a reason.


This.

If I had 100k I might do this. Other than that, definitive no.

[SouBeachTalents]

This honestly would've been a sustainable strategy when LeBron was in his prime, considering, discounting playoffs, he did it over 1200 times in a row. Even if you were only making $200 instead of $500 per bet, you'd be cashing in on roughly $14,000 a year, do that for a decade that's $140k, not too bad of a payout.

[Kblaze8855]

But to your point, it takes money to make money. If you've got $9k to risk on amusement and a 500 dollar payout, I mean I guess there's no harm, altho if you can afford to burn 9k for that how thrilling is a 500 payout gonna be? If your plan is to do it every day and keep stacking 500 at a time, the odds will eventually catch up with you and you'll lose all the profit youve been making with one 9k burn.



Eventually sure. But it would have hit 1243 games in a row. I don’t know how something that consistent is even allowed to be bet on.

Yea it will eventually lose…but you only need 16 more to never risk your own money on it.

[Neal Romer]

Eventually sure. But it would have hit 1243 games in a row. I don’t know how something that consistent is even allowed to be bet on.

Yea it will eventually lose…but you only need 16 more to never risk your own money on it.


Thats the thing. If that bet was being made consistently and a bettor was benefitting, Im sure the house would start moving the odds before long. Theyre not gonna just sit there and take L's.

If there was any sort of reliable loophole to game the system bookies woulda went out of business a long time ago. They know what theyre doing.

[Kblaze8855]

I know they do which is why it’s so hard to imagine casinos going out of business. But it seems this has been available most of if not his entire career. Maybe this is one of those little things they just consider cost of doing business because nobody big-time bothers playing that way.

Even though I suppose I could afford to lose it, I’d be off nervous wreck if I did this at those numbers. The other issue is I live in South Carolina and even though I travel for weeks and occasionally months of the time, I’m not always in states that allow online sports books.

And the value of something like this would be doing every single game.

I’m sure they don’t allow it but I wonder what the parlay terms would be on a 50 game in a row LeBron to go over 10 bet. Is the kind of thing that would probably be considered unlikely to hit by the numbers while at the same time being almost certain to hit.

It’s like the risky guaranteed parlay of all time.

He would pretty much have to have a seven point first half then get hurt in the third quarter for you to lose because I feel like he’s always gonna have enough ball control he can extend this streak at will.

[Neal Romer]

Single game bets are entirely luck based IMO and should only be done for pure amusement. Of course everyone tells themselves it was all skill when they win, but it's a crapshoot plain and simple. The ball can bounce a weird way, shooters can go cold, refs miss calls, guy twists his ankle. It's all luck.

The only bets you can legitimately lean on insight for as far as I can tell are long term futures bets. Like over/under season win totals. Last year's OKC and Magic teams were such obviously underrated teams by Vegas even before the season, that was basically free money for anyone that bothered to make the bet. Living in Texas I wasn't eligible. This year's Pelicans were likewise, on the under. They were a playoff team last year so the line was set fairly high, so the question became, if you had to pick one or the other are you betting on Zion/Ingraham to underachieve or overachieve these new heightened expectations that include health, commitment, leadership and the like. The answer was obvious, and cheers to whomever capitalized.

[highwhey]

I know they do which is why it’s so hard to imagine casinos going out of business. But it seems this has been available most of if not his entire career. Maybe this is one of those little things they just consider cost of doing business because nobody big-time bothers playing that way.

Even though I suppose I could afford to lose it, I’d be off nervous wreck if I did this at those numbers. The other issue is I live in South Carolina and even though I travel for weeks and occasionally months of the time, I’m not always in states that allow online sports books.

And the value of something like this would be doing every single game.

I’m sure they don’t allow it but I wonder what the parlay terms would be on a 50 game in a row LeBron to go over 10 bet. Is the kind of thing that would probably be considered unlikely to hit by the numbers while at the same time being almost certain to hit.

It’s like the risky guaranteed parlay of all time.

He would pretty much have to have a seven point first half then get hurt in the third quarter for you to lose because I feel like he’s always gonna have enough ball control he can extend this streak at will.

i haven't read this thread in its entirety and don't care to do so, but there's no such thing as a safe bet, or a relatively safe. all it takes is one game to lose 9k or whatever your betting and then you're negative -9k. it will leave a bad taste in your mouth and you'll either not bet this line any longer or double down (which is how casinos make money and why they leave this line available) and lose bigger next time. it's a hook pal. you can claim to be extremely disciplined and that you'll only bet this particular line but the house counts on dummies falling for this logic.

[highwhey]

This honestly would've been a sustainable strategy when LeBron was in his prime, considering, discounting playoffs, he did it over 1200 times in a row. Even if you were only making $200 instead of $500 per bet, you'd be cashing in on roughly $14,000 a year, do that for a decade that's $140k, not too bad of a payout.

you do realize casinos are rich because human greed is predictable and can be counted on right?

that $200 profit on this line may look good but eventually all the advertising and the pop ups in the app "double your bet with this parlay" will wear you down and you'll bite into it and lose. that's why the bet in the OP exists.

https://www.wikihow.com/images/thumb/7/7f/Hook-a-Fish-Step-2.jpg/v4-460px-Hook-a-Fish-Step-2.jpg.webp

[fsvr54]

Didn't he score under 10 points for the first time ever recently?

[Kblaze8855]

i haven't read this thread in its entirety and don't care to do so, but there's no such thing as a safe bet, or a relatively safe. all it takes is one game to lose 9k or whatever your betting and then you're negative -9k. it will leave a bad taste in your mouth and you'll either not bet this line any longer or double down (which is how casinos make money and why they leave this line available) and lose bigger next time. it's a hook pal. you can claim to be extremely disciplined and that you'll only bet this particular line but the house counts on dummies falling for this logic.

how is there no such thing as a safe bet when one has won 1200 times in a row? I’m not saying bets can be certain. But can we really say something that has gone the same way 1200 times in a row isn’t reliable?

There is always some risk and eventually this bet will lose but if 1200 times in a row isn’t reliable we need to retire the word.

[highwhey]

how is there no such thing as a safe bet when one has won 1200 times in a row? I’m not saying bets can be certain. But can we really say something that has gone the same way 1200 times in a row isn’t reliable?

There is always some risk and eventually this bet will lose but if 1200 times in a row isn’t reliable we need to retire the word.

because as i mentioned, it just takes one time to lose and you're negative by a significant margin. the OP shows a $9,000 betting line. are the odds the same every time? was it even less before? we know now that he's hit it 1200 times in a row. anyhow, most people are not disciplined enough to just bet this line. eventually most people will be tempted by a side bet or parlay that ruins this. it's like the restaraunts that would do the 50 cent wing days, it was to draw customers they knew would spend money on appetizers and drinks. same draw with the casino.

[Full Court]

On the flip side of the coin, how much do you make if you bet $500 that Lebron will NOT score double digits?