I'm ALL IN on Cooper Flagg: will be 10x All-Star, perennial MVP-level player in prime

[Im Still Ballin]

I'm ready to go all in now that Cooper's collegiate career is over. I think he's the NBA's next big thing, the next American superstar. Barring any serious injuries or health concerns, I'm ready to stake all of my chips and say I think he'll be a perennial MVP-level player in his prime. A 10x All-Star with the All-NBA selections to match.

Everybody understands and acknowledges his unusually high floor as a prospect, but I think many are still sleeping on his ceiling. He has no weaknesses, and his productivity is precocious beyond belief. Like, legitimately LeBron-esque. NPOY on the #1 seed leading his team in all five major statistics with a pending draft age only a week older than LBJ. Younger than a handful of prep-to-pro stars like Kevin Garnett and Dwight Howard.

He ticks all the boxes.

Size, athleticism, skill, cognition, personality/character/intangibles.

There are aspects of his basketball skillset that you could say are relatively weaker than the rest. Like, say, his ball handling. But even then, I'm not sure how true that is. At the start of the season? Sure. But by the new year, he had developed into a full-blown point forward and knockdown shooter with the numbers to prove it.

He's so well-rounded and flawless that I think people sleep on some of his offensive strengths. Namely, the shooting and playmaking.

He ended up his time at Duke shooting 38.5% 3PT on 3.6 3PA/g and 84.0% FT on 5.8 FTA/g. Consider the exponential rate of improvement: 44.4% on 3.7 3PA/g and 87.7% on 6.0 FTA/g over his last 27 games. And the playmaking: 4.2 apg, 2.1 topg, 26.8 AST%, 11.5 TO% for the entire season. 4.4 apg, 2.1 topg over the last 27 games.

Those are incredible numbers for such a big and athletic player who's so young. If he wasn't already so polished, people might have called more attention to his shooting and passing. But when you do everything well, nothing sticks out.

I've heard several times that Flagg isn't a generational prospect because he doesn't have that one special thing. An X-factor of sorts. He doesn't have LeBron or Zion's bulk and explosiveness. Or AD's C/PF positional size. These things may be true but what does it actually mean? It's not as if he's lacking anywhere, let alone actual basketball skills. That lack of freak physical gifts only matters if there's some sort of deficiency.

Was Luka not a generational prospect winning Euro League MVP as a teenager, busting grown men in the 2nd best league in the world? Shouldn't precocious productivity be the first consideration?

[Im Still Ballin]

If Cooper does have an X-Factor I think it's two things: his robustness/lack of weaknesses and his exponential rate of improvement. His growth rate has been insane. From a defensive specialist at the U17 FIBA WC as a 15 y/o, to a two-way role player Gatorade HS POY at Montverde, to a legitimate two-way point forward NPOY at Duke.

He gets better fast as hell. I read an interesting article from about a decade ago the other day. It found that the players who improve basketball skills the most in the pros are the ones who are already skilled in college:

https://www.canishoopus.com/2014/2/26/5435374/potential-nba-draft-prospects




Potential as an underlying cognitive trait:

Players who fill up box-scores and show a high level of skill across a variety of traits are often denied access to the ‘high potential' category if they lack impressive athleticism. Just look at how some current NBA stars were viewed entering the league. Draft Express had this to say about Kevin Love in 2008: "... There are serious doubts about how his proficiency will translate to the pro level... there really aren't many players at his height with his lack of athleticism in the pros, and it's tough to guess how high in the draft a team will be willing to take a chance on him." Here are some comments on Marc Gasol "The current leader in efficiency rating in the ACB League, Marc Gasol has built a pretty mistake-free style of game that helps him to emerge as a statistical standout.... How much will Gasol's lack of athleticism get exposed in the NBA? I guess that's the question every single decision maker will be asking himself" before he fell to the second round in 2007. Paul Millsap dropped to the late second round in 2006 in spite of impressive collegiate production. The reason for Millsap's drop is likely captured in NBADraft.net's lowly 7/10, 5/10. And 7/10 ratings for athleticism, size, and potential. Stephen Curry and James Harden both earned a "limited upside?" flag from Draft Express; Curry due to his "frail frame" and "average athleticism, lateral quickness, and wingspan", Harden due to his "average size and athleticism." These are all players I would put on the far right of the ‘raw' to ‘skilled' continuum, yet they moved along faster growth trajectories in the pros than any of their peers. Those growth trajectories are exactly what the concept of potential is supposed to be measuring.

[BTW... I do not mean to rag on DX here, they do a much better job than other draft media. See here for a great and relevant DX article. I only use their comments because they are easily accessible and represent commonly held opinions at the time]

The key to the success of all of these players is that they started with a really nice skill-set, but then added to those tools every season. This makes sense if we expand the idea of unique individual skill-curves to some core underlying trait that applies more broadly than any single skill. Call it learning-ability, work-ethic, BBIQ, coordination, or whatever else you want. The key is that a player has some trait (or collection of traits) that results in more rapid accretion of skills. If we believe this is the case, a player who already has an ‘old man game' as a freshman in college should be labeled as ‘high potential' rather than just the back-handed ‘NBA ready', because we can expect him to continue to develop at a faster rate than his peers.

This is a more complex phenomenon to try to test, but I did throw together a tentative analysis using two traits that I think are probing that underlying quality better than others. Players who collect lots of steals and have a good assist-to-turnover ratio in college tend to perform better in the NBA, not just at passing and stealing, but in general. In fact, I found that NCAA steals are actually one of the better predictors of NBA offensive RAPM when building my draft models. Steals and assist-to-turnover ratio seem to say something about a player's awareness and understanding of the game that makes them useful markers of potential. What I did here is look at progression in points from age 20 to 22 as we did above, but instead of splitting players into groups based on college points, I split them into high/low-ast-to-tov and high/low-steals:

http://cdn0.sbnation.com/assets/4037849/pnts_atostl_medium.png

As you can see, in both cases, the high-skill groups continue progressing at a steady rate, while the low-skill groups hit a wall at 21. Remember, this is happening even though we are looking at skill in completely different statistics. A lot more needs to be done to properly test this theory of ‘potential', but this shows some support for looking at individual differences in expected growth that may have nothing to do with athleticism.

This should start to make us worry about those ‘raw' prospects who succeed at the college level based purely on physical tools. Athleticism alone is not going to cut it at the NBA level, and if a player does not show a diverse skill-set or high BBIQ by the time he is in college, we really should worry about his potential to ever do so. The list of players who my draft projection model thought were great prospects based on college production but failed in the NBA is littered with these kinds of players. Tyrus Thomas, Stromile Swift, Eddie Griffin, Patrick O'Bryant, Hassan Whiteside, Anthony Randolph, Tyreke Evans... There are a lot more raw athletes to drastically under-perform based on college production than there are highly skilled mediocre athletes.

I think natural, baseline balance, coordination, and dexterity (coordination of the fingers and hands/fine motor skills) have a lot to do with it. These are components of athleticism that are harder to see or point out compared to expressions of power, such as a 40-yard dash or vertical jump.

Personality, character, and ultimately work ethic play a part also.

I think Cooper is just going to continue to improve every year. He's an outlier in this department, and I don't see that changing.

[Neal Romer]

He'll be a stud eventually for sure. He'll be competitive right away with grown men as a 19 year old, with his actual prime still years away.

Because of, as you said, all the ways he impacts the game collectively on both sides.

My only point about him in the other thread is I dont think he's ideally suited right now to be a guy who's gonna go finesse his way to a bucket in the clutch the way someone like SGA or Luka would do. I think that's the least natural part of his game, the isolation breakdown. But I mean yeah, Giannis isnt exactly the smoothest ball handler and he's a perennial MVP. So it's not something thats gonna hold him back from greatness.

I just thought it was a less than ideal call last night. You hesitate to have him attack all the way to the basket in that situation because hes had some turnovers before. If youre gonna end up with a midrange shot, might have been better off just letting one of the guards take it.

[Im Still Ballin]

Good post from RGM:


https://i.ibb.co/60qwWVhk/image.png

(most of these seasons are from shorter 3pt line)

Here are offensive stats in their draft years of every future (?) all-star drafted since 2015 on perimeter positions.

Flagg is obviously the youngest here - and he's above average in every offensive area (3pt shooting, FT%, scoring, playmaking, ballhandling and turnover ratio). It's pretty crazy to realize that Edwards was below average scorer and creator here statistically, Cunningham was below average as a ballhandler, Banchero was below average shooter and scorer, Simmons was obviously way below average shooter as well - and they were all 1st draft picks and allstars at 21-23yo. It's also fascinating for his future projection that while he has been at least very good in everything - Flagg wasn't the best in anything. It's not given that he'll reach his ceiling, but it's insane that even ignoring defense - he would've been a 1st pick here (and a better prospect than Banchero, Cade or Edwards) just based on his offensive production. And it also shows that we may argue that development isn't linear and guaranteed (Brunson or SGA overachieving in their NBA careers), but only Brunson here was perhaps a better NCAA player offensively, and he was over 3 years older on a better team. Hard to describe how ahead of a curve in terms of his development is Flagg as a prospect.

It was a pleasure to follow him all season long.

[StrongLurk]

He's still hard for me to judge. I think he will have a high "floor" regardless cause the dude clearly has great work ethic and passion for the game. Winners mindset. I don't know if he will be making all star teams for a decade but I feel like he is a very safe pick for number 1 overall.

The NBA is just so radically different now compared to college that it's hard for me to truly feel confident in Flagg's transition.

[Im Still Ballin]

He'll be a stud eventually for sure. He'll be competitive right away with grown men as a 19 year old, with his actual prime still years away.

Because of, as you said, all the ways he impacts the game collectively on both sides.

My only point about him in the other thread is I dont think he's ideally suited right now to be a guy who's gonna go finesse his way to a bucket in the clutch the way someone like SGA or Luka would do. I think that's the least natural part of his game, the isolation breakdown. But I mean yeah, Giannis isnt exactly the smoothest ball handler and he's a perennial MVP. So it's not something thats gonna hold him back from greatness.

I just thought it was a less than ideal call last night. You hesitate to have him attack all the way to the basket in that situation because hes had some turnovers before. If youre gonna end up with a midrange shot, might have been better off just letting one of the guards take it.

I hear ya, boss. Expect Coop to make the necessary improvements. He's so ahead of the curve and competition, and has a tremendous track record for exponential progression. Think about how long it took Kawhi, Shai, and Tatum to develop to where they are now. They were all still playing high school ball at the same age Cooper was winning college NPOY.

Only Doncic outdoes Cooper in precociousness. But he's in that same general tier with him and someone like LeBron.

[Im Still Ballin]

He's still hard for me to judge. I think he will have a high "floor" regardless cause the dude clearly has great work ethic and passion for the game. Winners mindset. I don't know if he will be making all star teams for a decade but I feel like he is a very safe pick for number 1 overall.

The NBA is just so radically different now compared to college that it's hard for me to truly feel confident in Flagg's transition.

Fair call.

If I'm confident and believe in a prospect, I have to go all in. There are enough positive indicators for me to go for the Hail Mary and proclaim him the Next Big Thing. And a hot take of that caliber for such a prospect like Cooper needs to be excessive. Like, 10x All-Star, perennial MVP-level guy in his prime.

Might backfire on me hard. We'll see. It's easy to be conservative with projections and predictions. You're never that wrong, but you're also never that right.

[ILLsmak]

He had a great look to put Duke in the lead. He got to his spot 1 on 1. Maybe faded a little too hard, but it was a big time play that would have changed how he was perceived all-time. It's funny how often people's 'rating' boils down more to moments than accomplishments.

Cooper could get injured, tho. Dudes come out and just break like Hayward. Sucks but it can happen. I think he'll be good if he stays healthy. I don't see anything i dislike, and he's really young.

-Smak

[ILLsmak]

He'll be a stud eventually for sure. He'll be competitive right away with grown men as a 19 year old, with his actual prime still years away.

Because of, as you said, all the ways he impacts the game collectively on both sides.

My only point about him in the other thread is I dont think he's ideally suited right now to be a guy who's gonna go finesse his way to a bucket in the clutch the way someone like SGA or Luka would do. I think that's the least natural part of his game, the isolation breakdown. But I mean yeah, Giannis isnt exactly the smoothest ball handler and he's a perennial MVP. So it's not something thats gonna hold him back from greatness.

I just thought it was a less than ideal call last night. You hesitate to have him attack all the way to the basket in that situation because hes had some turnovers before. If youre gonna end up with a midrange shot, might have been better off just letting one of the guards take it.

It's funny how being the leading scorer is seen as such a big thing. If you take someone like Kawhi, he was obviously an MVP level player, and he COULD be your go to scorer, but he could also get the points without being the focus as much, so if you paired him with someone like James Harden, it would work if they both stayed healthy. I think Cooper can be that kinda player, and MOST SFs who aren't super wet shooters fall into that swiss army knife mold.

Obviously ya boy Bron is different.

-Smak

[Wally450]

I've been impressed with his on-ball defense. Guy's got the lateral quickness to stay with defenders and the length to make things difficult for them as well.

[Neal Romer]

I hear ya, boss. Expect Coop to make the necessary improvements. He's so ahead of the curve and competition, and has a tremendous track record for exponential progression. Think about how long it took Kawhi, Shai, and Tatum to develop to where they are now. They were all still playing high school ball at the same age Cooper was winning college NPOY.

Only Doncic outdoes Cooper in precociousness. But he's in that same general tier with him and someone like LeBron.


But you know what, I think part of that is a natural acceleration in how quickly players in general are learning/improving, as a result of increased availability of bball footage online, and data driven optimization of game play. It's not that Flagg himself is so much more gifted than all these past stars, it's more that hes playing in an era where transforming your game into peak play is such a shorter process. And because of that, he's not the only one improving like crazy.

Look at the leaps guys like Reaves, Powell, Giddey, Herro, Avdija, Mobley, Zubac, Bronny etc are making. I dont remember a year with so many MIP candidates. We are in a time where theres more clarity on the optimal way to play the game. That access to information is uplifting a lot of guys as a result. So naturally Flagg is going to have an advantage over comparable players of the past. But hes also gonna be entering a league where everyone else will have that advantage. So I dont know you can compare what hes doing relative to previous eras as a projection of what he'll do vs his contemporary NBA peers.

[warriorfan]

But you know what, I think part of that is a natural acceleration in how quickly players in general are learning/improving, as a result of increased availability of bball footage online, and data driven optimization of game play. It's not that Flagg himself is so much more gifted than all these past stars, it's more that hes playing in an era where transforming your game into peak play is such a shorter process. And because of that, he's not the only one improving like crazy.

Look at the leaps guys like Reaves, Powell, Giddey, Herro, Avdija, Mobley, Zubac, Bronny etc are making. I dont remember a year with so many MIP candidates. We are in a time where theres more clarity on the optimal way to play the game. That access to information is uplifting a lot of guys as a result. So naturally Flagg is going to have an advantage over comparable players of the past. But hes also gonna be entering a league where everyone else will have that advantage. So I dont know you can compare what hes doing relative to previous eras as a projection of what he'll do vs his contemporary NBA peers.

That group of players isn’t exactly comprised of raw skilled but outlier athletic talent prospects.

What I got was they are saying that there used to be a train of thought that raw athletic guys can grow a lot….because they have a lot of room to grow with a lower base level of skill….When in fact it’s the guys who have a high level of skill at a young age who continue growing faster even though it appears they have already reached much closer to their skill ceiling compared to the raw athlete prospects.



“Ability to improve” should be a criteria scouts look for. Even though it is difficult to quantify. But some people are simply better at improving than others. Whether it comes to adding new skills or polishing old ones.

[eliteballer]

I told you to stop copying my threads, stop talking to yourself, and get a job and a girlfriend!!

[999Guy]

I don't see any way he won't be be better than Jayson Tatum. That's his floor for me. Absolute peak Kawhi Leonard is around his ceiling.

I think he's a prodigy like Luka. By his year 2 he'll probably be an all-star.

Only thing I'm questioning is his weight. He looks big to me, but apparently he dropped down to 185 before the year? That's a question mark for me. Because if he's moving the way he does right now at 205+, I think his athleticism is ridiculously underrated. If he's somehow weighing around prime Westbrook weight then maybe his ceiling is closer to Tatum's than Kawhi's.

[Manny98]

Best white American talent we have ever seen and the face of the league once LeBron hangs em up :applause:

[Real Men Wear Green]

I don't see any way he won't be be better than Jayson Tatum. That's his floor for me. Do you think he's already a good or better than Tatum?

[Norcaliblunt]

He looks like he’ll be good. I don’t know about some sort of generational outlier though.

MVP level doesn’t really mean much. Could he be an MVP eventually? Yeah, but so could a lot of players.

[Neal Romer]

Do you think he's already as good or better than Tatum?

Edit: Nevermind, theres no point in me bickering with this guy. He can like what he wants, say what he wants. Not worth the time typing out a big response.

That was my mistake. That's on me. Gotta be better.

[Manny98]

Do you think he's already a good or better than Tatum?

He's already a better defender and playmaker than Tatum

Wouldn't be surprised if Flagg makes the all star team as a rookie, he's that good already

[Norcaliblunt]

:wtf:

Only this guy tries to bate someone into something they didnt say, just so he has an excuse to prop up his beloved Celtic sportsball player.

Flagg's pro floor in his prime is definitely Tatum. Minimum. Thats undeniable.

You dont have to go into Celtic Defender Man mode over it. They arent paying you. You arent on the PR team. They dont know you and dont care about you. Nor do you gain respect on ISH any time the Celtics succeed of someone is named to an NBA team.

The Celtics success is not your success. Theres no reason for you to be as shamelessly attached to overrating all of their players as you are.

Im just tellin you breh. Youre RMWG. It wouldnt hurt ya to be a little less RMWG.

Just some friendly advice....

Come on homie you and about 10 other people on this forum defend LeBron every chance you get. None of you know him or on his payroll either.

At least RMWG is coming from a true old school fan of the home team homer perspective and not just a team hopping player stan.

[Neal Romer]

He's already a better defender and playmaker than Tatum

Wouldn't be surprised if Flagg makes the all star team as a rookie, he's that good already


Defender, perhaps. It's impossible to prove since theyre playing against different levels of competition, but defense isnt something as dependent on practice as offense. You just have to have the right body, know the rotations, and give effort. Im sure Flagg could defend well at the pro level today.

You gotta give Tatum SOME respect here with the playmaking. He's doing it at a pretty solid level this year. He's not elite but he's basically comparable at the NBA level to what Flagg is at the college level. Which means right now Tatum is better in that regard.

As a scorer Flagg's ceiling is higher, and as a playmaker his ceiling may be higher as well. But right now today clearly Tatum is a more polished offensive player at the NBA level. Thats not really a question.

[Real Men Wear Green]

:wtf:

Only this guy tries to bait someone into saying something they didnt say, just so he has an excuse to prop up and defend his beloved Celtic sportsball player. I asked a question. I am assuming that unlike you be would be intelligent enough to answer it. I did not say for sure that he thought one thing or another. So you can move along now, he doesn't need a lawyer but if he did he would probably want one with some sense.


Flagg's pro floor in his prime is definitely Tatum. Minimum. Thats undeniable. Nobody said hes Tatum right now.If he isn't as good as Tatum yet then it's definitely not a given that he will be. How much he will improve is not a known fact.


You dont have to go into Celtic Defender Man mode over it. They arent paying you. You arent on the PR team. They dont know you and dont care about you. Nor do you gain respect on ISH any time the Celtics succeed or a Celtic is named to an NBA team or whatever. If you got hit by a bus no one would give a shit and yet here you are still talking out of your ass.

[RRR3]

I asked a question. I am assuming that unlike you be would be intelligent enough to answer it. I did not say for sure that he thought one thing or another. So you can move along now, he doesn't need a lawyer but if he did he would probably want one with some sense.

If he isn't as good as Tatum yet then it's definitely not a given that he will be. How much he will improve is not a known fact.
If you got hit by a bus no one would give a shit and yet here you are still talking out of your ass.
:ohwell:

Poor starface

[Neal Romer]

:ohwell:

Poor starface


Yeah.

You and RMWG get each other. You guys are in the same boat. Same level. Hell, throw highwhey in the mix too. And thats fine. It was legitimately my mistake to go on a tirade. He's gonna say what he says. Everyone on ISH is gonna say what they say. Everyones level is different.

What am I doing going around trying to correct everyone every day?? It doesnt change their level the next day. It's not something I should be worried about. I have to stop. It's on me. No excuses.

RMWG, I apologize.

[Real Men Wear Green]

He's already a better defender and playmaker than Tatum

Wouldn't be surprised if Flagg makes the all star team as a rookie, he's that good already Definitely could have an edge defensively, his ability to cover ground on help and length are superior. Bit he is going to at the least have a learning curve when it comes to handling NBA defense.. Tatum has had to make plays against multiple elite NBA defenders. Tatum is averaging more assists in a much better league. Pump the breaks.

[Im Still Ballin]

Cooper's stats in the tournament:

- 5 games played
- 21.0 ppg, 7.6 rpg, 5.0 apg, 0.6 spg, 2.0 bpg, 1.8 topg, 1.4 pfpg
- 50.0% 3PT (3.6 3pa/g), 42.4% 2PT (11.8 2pa/g), 90.3% FT (6.2 fta/g), 57.92% TS

[ShawkFactory]

I was particularly impressed by Flagg’s playmaking skills last night. I don’t know his assist numbers but just watching it, it’s incredibly impressive that he was the highest IQ player on the floor against an incredible team filled with 5th and 6th year seniors. Tatum had a smoother handle but he wasn’t like THAT as a freshman…who was also a year older.

[Real Men Wear Green]

I was particularly impressed by Flagg’s playmaking skills last night. I don’t know his assist numbers but just watching it, it’s incredibly impressive that he was the highest IQ player on the floor against an incredible team filled with 5th and 6th year seniors. Tatum had a smoother handle but he wasn’t like THAT as a freshman…who was also a year older. There's no argument about who was better at 18. Tatum didn't have any point forward experience until his third year in the league when teams started taking him seriously as a scorer and he had to figure out how to help his teammates score because opponents weren't going to let him win games one-on-one anymore. But those rough experiences forced a growth in Tatum that made him the better current playmaker, which is what I was arguing.

[ShawkFactory]

There's no argument about who was better at 18. Tatum didn't have any point forward experience until his third year in the league when teams started taking him seriously as a scorer and he had to figure out how to help his teammates score because opponents weren't going to let him win games one-on-one anymore. But those rough experiences forced a growth in Tatum that made him the better current playmaker, which is what I was arguing.

I respect and understand your defensive nature when it comes to Tatum. I’d probably be that way too. But Jesus Christ dude, I wasn’t talking about Tatum negatively at all or talking about his playmaking right now. He’s a top 5-6 player in the league and Coop may or may not ever get there.

I was just giving my own thoughts about Flagg and where he is at the moment.

[Im Still Ballin]

The passes out of the pick-and-roll impressed me the most. The skip passes to the corner, and high-low entry passes, but most especially the lob passes to Maluach as a ball handler or from the short roll ala Draymond. Reminds me a bit of Harden and Luka. Although he's generally more conservative of a passer. More akin to Jimmy Butler.

I think the ball-handling complaints are largely overblown and outdated at this point. He maintained a very low TO% despite taking on a primary on-ball creation role for the #1 offense in college basketball. 37.5 points per 100, 30.9 USG%, 8.3 assists per 100, 26.8 AST%, 4.1 turnovers per 100, 11.5 TOV%.

His passing upside is in the Pippen, LeBron, Doncic, and Harden tier, IMO. Combine that with Tatum, Kawhi, Paul George level of shooting upside. Mix that with his size, athleticism, and downhill slashing, and you have a hell of a primary offensive option.

[bdonovan]

Has the IQ, intangibles, passing ability; defense.

He doesn't have the strength to do damage in the NBA - at the moment (he needs to hit the gym). Not sure how his ball handling will work as a 6'9" small forward. Other huge small forwards like this like Michael Porter have not thrived in this position, due to it being hard to dribble at that size from the wing position.

His game reminds me of Jokic and Doncic in terms of his feel for the game, his facillitating (great passing), precise shooting. But he doesn't have the size that those two use to create shots.

His 38% 3 pt shooting was good, but not great. Avg is 35% in NCAA and 36.6% in NBA. Elite 3 pt shooters are over 40%.

It's remarkable how he gets away with warding with the off-arm. If he can get away with it in the NBA, he'll be effectively right away offensively.

He moves well off the ball, and has a good instinct on both ends of the floor. Some of what he does looks exceptional in college because you're not playing against the best. If he's committing to improving his game constantly, and bulking up, he could be a top player.

He is not MVP caliber.

[iamgine]

What will be his nickname in the NBA? Surely not Maine Event anymore.

[Im Still Ballin]

Has the IQ, intangibles, passing ability; defense.

All correct.


He doesn't have the strength to do damage in the NBA - at the moment (he needs to hit the gym).

He turned 18 in late December. He has a robust, wide-bodied frame with the natural strength to match. His untrained baseline and potential for size and strength are noticeably high for the average forward. He's listed at 205 pounds right now, but he looks bigger than that. I wouldn't be surprised if he measures in at 215-220 at the NBA combine or by training camp.

I'd compare Cooper's frame and natural strength to OG Anunoby (6'6.25" and 232 pounds at 19.92 draft age), Kawhi Leonard (6'6" and 227.4 pounds at 19.96 draft age), Aaron Gordon (6'7.5" and 220.1 pounds at 18.75 draft age), Larry Nance Jr. (6'7.5" and 226.6 pounds at 22.46 draft age), and Ron Artest (6'6" and 235 pounds at 19.6 draft age).

His size and strength are not things I'd be concerned about. Prediction: 6'7.75" and 217 pounds at 18.5 draft age. 230 by the time he's Kawhi's age when drafted.


Not sure how his ball handling will work as a 6'9" small forward.

The league has several tall ball handlers: Luka, Butler, Giddey, Tatum, LeBron, F. Wagner, Giannis, Jokic, etc. They differ in usage but are all definitely capable creators at forward & center size. I'm not sure why Flagg wouldn't do the same when he's displayed very good point forward qualities. Has the numbers to back it up:


I think the ball-handling complaints are largely overblown and outdated at this point. He maintained a very low TO% despite taking on a primary on-ball creation role for the #1 offense in college basketball. 37.5 points per 100, 30.9 USG%, 8.3 assists per 100, 26.8 AST%, 4.1 turnovers per 100, 11.5 TOV%.


Other huge small forwards like this like Michael Porter have not thrived in this position, due to it being hard to dribble at that size from the wing position.

Except MPJ has never really been known for having good ball handling. He's a catch-and-shoot, attacking off the catch guy. He hasn't been the off-the-dribble guy since high school before the back injuries. He's a Rashard Lewis type. If anyone in this draft should be compared to MJP is Ace Bailey.


His game reminds me of Jokic and Doncic in terms of his feel for the game, his facillitating (great passing), precise shooting. But he doesn't have the size that those two use to create shots.

I agree regarding the feel for the game, facilitating, and precise shooting. But not the second part. Cooper will measure somewhere in the 6'7.5" to 6'8" barefoot, 215-220 pounds, 7'0" to 7'3" wingspan, and 8'10" to 9'1" standing reach range.

That's plenty of size to work with. He's also got the wide body to block/shield the ball and use crafty footwork, pivoting, and physicality to manufacture advantageous angles to get off shots. He's great at turning a face-up attack/dribble drive into a post-up pivot finish.


His 38% 3 pt shooting was good, but not great. Avg is 35% in NCAA and 36.6% in NBA. Elite 3 pt shooters are over 40%.

He ended up his time at Duke shooting 38.5% 3PT on 3.6 3PA/g and 84.0% FT on 5.8 FTA/g. Consider the exponential rate of improvement: 44.4% on 3.7 3PA/g and 87.7% on 6.0 FTA/g over his last 27 games.

Many elite shooters shot worse in college. And most of them shot on a shorter line. Tatum: 34%; Edwards (best pull-up three-point shooter this season): 29.4%; Maxey: 29.2%; Herro: 35.5%; D Mitchell: 35.4%; Trae: 36.1%.

Not to mention these guys were all considerably older than Cooper. Which is relevant because players get exponentially better in the teen years and the early twenties. Precociousness is a good sign for development.

https://i.ibb.co/60qwWVhk/image.png


It's remarkable how he gets away with warding with the off-arm. If he can get away with it in the NBA, he'll be effectively right away offensively.

Sounds like the LeBron stiff arm! Or Shai's sneaky push-off. All the top guys have their little physical moves to generate separation when necessary. The league has permitted more defensive physicality since post-All-Star 2023-24. With that comes more offensive physicality.

No reason to think he can't use it.


He moves well off the ball, and has a good instinct on both ends of the floor. Some of what he does looks exceptional in college because you're not playing against the best. If he's committing to improving his game constantly, and bulking up, he could be a top player.

He played pretty well against the best of the best. Peep his tournament stats:


- 5 games played
- 21.0 ppg, 7.6 rpg, 5.0 apg, 0.6 spg, 2.0 bpg, 1.8 topg, 1.4 pfpg
- 50.0% 3PT (3.6 3pa/g), 42.4% 2PT (11.8 2pa/g), 90.3% FT (6.2 fta/g), 57.92% TS

He upped his game in all the big matchups. In fact, it was the blowouts against weaker competition that hurt his stats the most. The thing about Cooper is that he doesn't stat-pad/chase stats.

Expect that extra floor size and spacing in the NBA to open up his offensive game in a noticeable way. It's easier to put up numbers in the pros with more room to operate and three in the key/no college-style zones.


He is not MVP caliber.

We'll see. I think he'll be one throughout his prime. Doesn't necessarily mean he'll win one because that takes the right circumstance and narrative as much as it does high-level impact on the game.

[Carbine]

I don't see any way he won't be be better than Jayson Tatum. That's his floor for me. Absolute peak Kawhi Leonard is around his ceiling.

I think he's a prodigy like Luka. By his year 2 he'll probably be an all-star.

Only thing I'm questioning is his weight. He looks big to me, but apparently he dropped down to 185 before the year? That's a question mark for me. Because if he's moving the way he does right now at 205+, I think his athleticism is ridiculously underrated. If he's somehow weighing around prime Westbrook weight then maybe his ceiling is closer to Tatum's than Kawhi's.


So, a perennial first team all NBA'er is his worst outcome and a player who was legitimately getting '96 MJ comparisons is the peak?

That's up there with Chet being White KD with better defense.

Congrats.

[Im Still Ballin]

I also think he'll be better than Tatum, but I wouldn't say that's his worst outcome/floor. I think something more like a bigger Shane Battier with more playmaking. That's reasonable to me.

As for the best possible outcome/ceiling, anything's possible. George Karl said, "A more offensively skilled Scottie Pippen."

https://x.com/CoachKarl22/status/1905627969705705595

It's not a bad call. Who are we to tell otherwise? George Karl is a HOF coach who has been around the NBA for a long time. Not the most granular comparison though; more offensively skilled can mean many things. Or just one or two. Better shooting would be the main aspect, I'd imagine.

[ILLsmak]

I also think he'll be better than Tatum, but I wouldn't say that's his worst outcome/floor. I think something more like a bigger Shane Battier with more playmaking. That's reasonable to me.

As for the best possible outcome/ceiling, anything's possible. George Karl said, "A more offensively skilled Scottie Pippen."

https://x.com/CoachKarl22/status/1905627969705705595

It's not a bad call. Who are we to tell otherwise? George Karl is a HOF coach who has been around the NBA for a long time. Not the most granular comparison though; more offensively skilled can mean many things. Or just one or two. Better shooting would be the main aspect, I'd imagine.

Tatum truly annoys me, but anyone saying that someone's floor is an all nba 1 player is nuts haha.

-Smak

[MrFonzworth]

He will be a good Gerald Wallace level player

[Manny98]

He will be a good Gerald Wallace level player

He's already better than Gerald Wallace

[Meticode]

The two biggest things I think he has to work on is his ball-handling and to put on about 10-15 pounds of muscle to get up to around 220. When he's on the perimeter his handle can get pretty loose. The biggest question for his skill-set is how well he will do as a ISO scorer to open up his game. Ballhandling improvement and a little more muscle will improve all that across the board.

[MrFonzworth]

He's already better than Gerald Wallace

You don't know who Gerald Wallace is

[90sgoat]

The NBA will be sending Coop to Philly right?

[Im Still Ballin]

Cooper is listed at 6'9" and 225 pounds on Duke's website. It was last updated on 4/2/25 and includes all his 2024-25 achievements.

https://goduke.com/sports/mens-basketball/roster/cooper-flagg/20760

Another reference on the website is here: https://goduke.com/news/2025/4/6/mens-basketball-cooper-flagg-wins-naismith-trophy


The 6-9, 225-pound freshman led No. 1 Duke in points (709), rebounds (278), assists (155), steals (52) and blocks per game (1.4), and ranked among the ACC's top-10 in four of the five major statistical categories - scoring (3rd), rebounding (9th), assists (8th) and blocked shots (6th). He garnered both ACC player and rookie of the week honors in the same week five times this season, becoming the first player in ACC history to sweep the conference weekly awards more than twice. His 12 ACC Rookie of the Week citations are a new conference record.

I can buy the 225-pound measurement. He looks way too big for his 205 lb listed weight. I think that was just an old high school listing. What do you guys think?

[tontoz]

Cooper is listed at 6'9" and 225 pounds on Duke's website. It was last updated on 4/2/25 and includes all his 2024-25 achievements.

https://goduke.com/sports/mens-basketball/roster/cooper-flagg/20760

Another reference on the website is here: https://goduke.com/news/2025/4/6/mens-basketball-cooper-flagg-wins-naismith-trophy



I can buy the 225-pound measurement. He looks way too big for his 205 lb listed weight. I think that was just an old high school listing. What do you guys think?


You are probably right. Sarr weighed 224 at the combine but is listed at 205.

[GOBB]

He will be a Sixer. Not sure you’ll be all in then.

[90sgoat]

Cooper is listed at 6'9" and 225 pounds on Duke's website. It was last updated on 4/2/25 and includes all his 2024-25 achievements.

https://goduke.com/sports/mens-basketball/roster/cooper-flagg/20760

Another reference on the website is here: https://goduke.com/news/2025/4/6/mens-basketball-cooper-flagg-wins-naismith-trophy



I can buy the 225-pound measurement. He looks way too big for his 205 lb listed weight. I think that was just an old high school listing. What do you guys think?

Lol, no way he is 205 lbs.

[Im Still Ballin]

He will be a Sixer. Not sure you’ll be all in then.

I would love for him to be a Sixer. Iconic franchise. They could be contenders on day one if Embiid is remotely healthy.

Embiid
Flagg
George
McCain
Maxey

Is that the starting lineup? Looks nice.

Hell, they could be great without Embiid if Cooper has a Luka/Wemby/LeBron kind of rookie season.

[eliteballer]

I told you to stop copying my threads and get a job and a girlfriend!!

[Manny98]

He will be a Sixer. Not sure you’ll be all in then.

**** no

[Manny98]

You don't know who Gerald Wallace is

Exactly some nobody who hasn't done anything of note

Cooper is arguably top 20 in the league already

[GOBB]

Exactly some nobody who hasn't done anything of note

Cooper is arguably top 20 in the league already

Top 20? Skipping therapy again I see.

[GOBB]

I would love for him to be a Sixer. Iconic franchise. They could be contenders on day one if Embiid is remotely healthy.

Embiid
Flagg
George
McCain
Maxey

Is that the starting lineup? Looks nice.

Hell, they could be great without Embiid if Cooper has a Luka/Wemby/LeBron kind of rookie season.

We shall see if Sixers get lucky and land the #1 pick. Would be crazy to add Cooper. Still unsure what caliber of player he will be. At worst the ultimate glue guy. Anything less than that would be Ben Simmons cringe worthy in terms of disappointment. Future wise Maxey/Coop is solid. Short term wise I’m kind of checked out on Embiid and never thought George was a good addition. That said for fun if Sixers got lucky and land Cooper. Embiid/George are healthy enough. Would make a good story for next season as far as what they do.


Not to derail thread with Sixers nonsense. Cooper IQ and dog mentality is worth noting. That’s more impressive than whatever adv stats folks spit out there. “First fresh to…”. I look at the eye test. And when you look at the ultimate glue guys I. NBA history? They all have that. Draymond, J.Noah, A.Igoudala, Ibaka, Conley etc

[Meticode]

Flagg's ceiling is a 2016-17 prime Gordan Hayward. He'll be an all-star a few times in his career. Nothing MVP-worthy.

[GOBB]

Flagg's ceiling is a 2016-17 prime Gordan Hayward. He'll be an all-star a few times in his career. Nothing MVP-worthy.

Damn I forgot about how good Gordon was before injury

[Meticode]

Damn I forgot about how good Gordon was before injury

My point is I don't think he'll be as good as many people are touting him to be. Hot take maybe. I don't know.

[Manny98]

Flagg's ceiling is a 2016-17 prime Gordan Hayward. He'll be an all-star a few times in his career. Nothing MVP-worthy.

Somebody who's never seen him play :oldlol:

[Manny98]

Top 20? Skipping therapy again I see.

I think he's that good maybe im getting ahead of myself

Been watching him since high school and have seen him in scrimmages against NBA players and he looked like he belonged


https://youtu.be/ASoYfJMmBF8?si=Z2GMSQBwLfA4p2m0

[Meticode]

Somebody who's never seen him play :oldlol:

I've indeed only watched him in a few games. I'm not studying players or prospects hardcore. I'm just making a casual observation as a fan. Not a big deal and it's just my little old opinion. I just don't think he's going to translate into the NBA as good as people think he is (MVP contender and 10+ All-Star). I think he'll be an all-star a few times, but he won't be in the upper echelon of MVP player contenders as some people make him out to be. If I'm wrong and he's great? Good for him. No big deal. I'm not here to debate or argue like an idiot like many people here.

[GOBB]

I think he's that good maybe im getting ahead of myself

Been watching him since high school and have seen him in scrimmages against NBA players and he looked like he belonged


https://youtu.be/ASoYfJMmBF8?si=Z2GMSQBwLfA4p2m0

Eh you’re high on Cooper. I think we all as fans have had prospects we liked to the degree you did. So I can dig it.

[90sgoat]

I've indeed only watched him in a few games. I'm not studying players or prospects hardcore. I'm just making a casual observation as a fan. Not a big deal and it's just my little old opinion. I just don't think he's going to translate into the NBA as good as people think he is (MVP contender and 10+ All-Star). I think he'll be an all-star a few times, but he won't be in the upper echelon of MVP player contenders as some people make him out to be. If I'm wrong and he's great? Good for him. No big deal. I'm not here to debate or argue like an idiot like many people here.

He's not a Luka talent right now.

Luka was Final 4 MVP as an 18 year old in FIBA with stars and professionals at the highest level in Europe, which would beat the best college teams easily.

The one's he should be compared to are Paolo and similar talents, where he seems clearly better.

[Meticode]

He's not a Luka talent right now.

Luka was Final 4 MVP as an 18 year old in FIBA with stars and professionals at the highest level in Europe, which would beat the best college teams easily.

The one's he should be compared to are Paolo and similar talents, where he seems clearly better.
Luka had so much more experience it's not even comparable. I think he was playing pro ball over there at 16 right? By the time he was drafted at 19 years old he already had as much as experience if not MORE than a sophomore or junior in the US college ranks.

[Im Still Ballin]

Flagg's ceiling is a 2016-17 prime Gordan Hayward. He'll be an all-star a few times in his career. Nothing MVP-worthy.

I mean, maybe you're right on the offense. 2016-17 Hayward averaged 21.9 ppg, 5.4 rpg, 3.5 apg/1.9 topg. Had a +4.6 OBPM, 33.4 points per 100, 108 TS+, 5.3 assists per 100, 18.2 AST%/9.4 TOV%. That's All-Star level offense. Not quite All-NBA let alone MVP-level.

But defensively? Cooper was a better defender in high school than Gordon ever was - at any point in his basketball career. Flagg projects to be an All-NBA level defender.

All-Star offense + All-NBA defense from a modern forward is something like Bulls Jimmy Butler or Pacers Paul George. or Spurs Kawhi from like 2014-2016 before he became the 25ppg+ guy.

[Neal Romer]

I mean, maybe you're right on the offense. 2016-17 Hayward averaged 21.9 ppg, 5.4 rpg, 3.5 apg/1.9 topg. Had a +4.6 OBPM, 33.4 points per 100, 108 TS+, 5.3 assists per 100, 18.2 AST%/9.4 TOV%. That's All-Star level offense. Not quite All-NBA let alone MVP-level.

But defensively? Cooper was a better defender in high school than Gordon ever was - at any point in his basketball career. Flagg projects to be an All-NBA level defender.

All-Star offense + All-NBA defense from a modern forward is something like Bulls Jimmy Butler or Pacers Paul George. or Spurs Kawhi from like 2014-2016 before he became the 25ppg+ guy.


No Giddey thread bump tonight? 28 point triple double... youre slackin!


Edit: Okay you bumped it at the exact same time I posted this :lol



I'll never doubt you again :cry:

[Im Still Ballin]

No Giddey thread bump tonight? 28 point triple double... youre slackin!


Edit: Okay you bumped it at the exact same time I posted this :lol



I'll never doubt you again :cry:

:D

[999Guy]

So, a perennial first team all NBA'er is his worst outcome and a player who was legitimately getting '96 MJ comparisons is the peak?

That's up there with Chet being White KD with better defense.

Congrats.

I'm telling you Flagg is a good NBA player right now. At 18. It's visible. He's above average on both ends as essentially a high schooler. It's gonna be hard for him to not top Tatum if he stays healthy.

But I'm not too high on Tatum. I think he's a back end top 10 guy but nothing more.

[90sgoat]

Luka had so much more experience it's not even comparable. I think he was playing pro ball over there at 16 right? By the time he was drafted at 19 years old he already had as much as experience if not MORE than a sophomore or junior in the US college ranks.

Yeah, it's tough to compare. Lebron lost his high school championship game. The american system is different. It used to create more stars than Europe, because they got more playing time as the man, but it seems to have changed. Luka, Wagner, Jokic.

[bdonovan]

All correct.



He turned 18 in late December. He has a robust, wide-bodied frame with the natural strength to match. His untrained baseline and potential for size and strength are noticeably high for the average forward. He's listed at 205 pounds right now, but he looks bigger than that. I wouldn't be surprised if he measures in at 215-220 at the NBA combine or by training camp.

I'd compare Cooper's frame and natural strength to OG Anunoby (6'6.25" and 232 pounds at 19.92 draft age), Kawhi Leonard (6'6" and 227.4 pounds at 19.96 draft age), Aaron Gordon (6'7.5" and 220.1 pounds at 18.75 draft age), Larry Nance Jr. (6'7.5" and 226.6 pounds at 22.46 draft age), and Ron Artest (6'6" and 235 pounds at 19.6 draft age).

His size and strength are not things I'd be concerned about. Prediction: 6'7.75" and 217 pounds at 18.5 draft age. 230 by the time he's Kawhi's age when drafted.



The league has several tall ball handlers: Luka, Butler, Giddey, Tatum, LeBron, F. Wagner, Giannis, Jokic, etc. They differ in usage but are all definitely capable creators at forward & center size. I'm not sure why Flagg wouldn't do the same when he's displayed very good point forward qualities. Has the numbers to back it up:





Except MPJ has never really been known for having good ball handling. He's a catch-and-shoot, attacking off the catch guy. He hasn't been the off-the-dribble guy since high school before the back injuries. He's a Rashard Lewis type. If anyone in this draft should be compared to MJP is Ace Bailey.



I agree regarding the feel for the game, facilitating, and precise shooting. But not the second part. Cooper will measure somewhere in the 6'7.5" to 6'8" barefoot, 215-220 pounds, 7'0" to 7'3" wingspan, and 8'10" to 9'1" standing reach range.

That's plenty of size to work with. He's also got the wide body to block/shield the ball and use crafty footwork, pivoting, and physicality to manufacture advantageous angles to get off shots. He's great at turning a face-up attack/dribble drive into a post-up pivot finish.



He ended up his time at Duke shooting 38.5% 3PT on 3.6 3PA/g and 84.0% FT on 5.8 FTA/g. Consider the exponential rate of improvement: 44.4% on 3.7 3PA/g and 87.7% on 6.0 FTA/g over his last 27 games.

Many elite shooters shot worse in college. And most of them shot on a shorter line. Tatum: 34%; Edwards (best pull-up three-point shooter this season): 29.4%; Maxey: 29.2%; Herro: 35.5%; D Mitchell: 35.4%; Trae: 36.1%.

Not to mention these guys were all considerably older than Cooper. Which is relevant because players get exponentially better in the teen years and the early twenties. Precociousness is a good sign for development.

https://i.ibb.co/60qwWVhk/image.png



Sounds like the LeBron stiff arm! Or Shai's sneaky push-off. All the top guys have their little physical moves to generate separation when necessary. The league has permitted more defensive physicality since post-All-Star 2023-24. With that comes more offensive physicality.

No reason to think he can't use it.



He played pretty well against the best of the best. Peep his tournament stats:



He upped his game in all the big matchups. In fact, it was the blowouts against weaker competition that hurt his stats the most. The thing about Cooper is that he doesn't stat-pad/chase stats.

Expect that extra floor size and spacing in the NBA to open up his offensive game in a noticeable way. It's easier to put up numbers in the pros with more room to operate and three in the key/no college-style zones.



We'll see. I think he'll be one throughout his prime. Doesn't necessarily mean he'll win one because that takes the right circumstance and narrative as much as it does high-level impact on the game.

Good stats and read.

[bizil]

Some have said a more skilled scoring version of Scottie Pippen scoring the rock. So if that means a deeper bag in terms of scoring AND alpha dog scoring ability (something Pip never had) that means a Grant Hill type of player to me. WHICH MEANS a top 5 player in the league at some point in time. And Hill NEVER TRULY PEAKED as a player. He was starting to peak when he went down with the injuries. And at that point was still the best SF in the world.

BUT when I watch Flagg play, I also see Marion and AK-47 in terms of his motor and defensive versatility. NOT SAYING G Hill didn't have a motor. And we all know he had tremendous defensive versatility. But I see MORE PF type of elements in his game that G Hill and Pip. MEANING his primary position in the league could be PF just as well as it could be SF. Marion had the best seasons of his career as an undersized PF. And AK 47 lead the league in blocks and made his lone All Star team with PF as his primary position. So while Pip and G Hill could play and defend four positions well, their best position was the SF/point forward hybrid deal. And while Marion and AK 47 came in the league as SF's and did very well, they peaked as players as PF's.

And if Coop grows to be 6'11 (kid is still growing), then it boils down to a KG type of comp in my opinion! He could join KG, Giannis, and AD as great two way POSITIONLESS types of players at that size who stuff the stat sheet! KG put that type of supestar on the map. AD came down the pike and added more dominant scoring. And Giannis came with Bron-esque type blend of speed and power and even more dominant scoring that KG or AD. So point blank the kid is so unique you can't compare to just one player.

[Im Still Ballin]

He just declared for the NBA Draft.

[Neal Romer]

He just declared for the NBA Draft.


The NBA is doing itself a major disservice if they do not steer him toward Lebron on draft night.