Why is Booker shooting so many 3's

[bdonovan]

Chanced across Booker's stats and I he's shooting over 7 3 pointers a game shooting 33% at them. The league average is 37.5%.

LeMelo shoots 11 a game and under 34%.

Tatum shoots 10 a game at 34%.

I know league mathematicians say to shoot more 3's but have to wonder if they should be finding the best shooter on their team instead.

Horford, Derrick White, and Pritchard all over 40% on the Celtics for example.

[Real Men Wear Green]

Tatum's threes aren't wonderful but the ones he takes and the ones Horford or White take can be very different. Along with the normal good threes that come from ball movement that Horford takes Tatum (and Brown) is a guy that will have the ball in his hands at the end of a possession that doesn't go so well. If he has 3 to 5 seconds and he's on the perimeter he can always take a few dribbles and get a shot off over the top. It's not the reason for every miss but it's the main reason why a guy like Horford who is not truly a better shooter spots better from three.

White, Hauser and Pritchard are all better three point shooters and also take less bail out shots, though White and Pritchard do get some.

[Im Still Ballin]

The context of the shot matters. Those other guys are taking easier shots because someone is taking tougher ones.

For reference, the average half-court play (put-backs removed) is worth 0.978 points. The top-ranked team is Cleveland at 1.059 points per play. A good pull-up three-point shooter can shoot in excess of 33% on moderate to high volume. This is a shot that's relatively easy to self-generate and naturally has a low turnover rate.

33% 3PT = 50% 2PT = roughly 1.0 point per play
35% 3PT = 1.05 points per play
37% 3PT = 1.11 points per play
40% 3PT = 1.20 points per play

Guys like Tatum would be raining 40%+ pull-up threes all night if the defense didn't guard them. But they do, and it opens up driving and passing lanes. The systemic offensive value of these shots cannot be ignored. They're one of the easiest ways to create an advantage. But you also need someone who can take advantage of that advantage. Meaning, the requisite ball handling, slashing, and passing. Luka, Tatum, Harden, etc.

[Im Still Ballin]

That being said, that doesn't mean some of these guys aren't jacking up shots when they shouldn't. Always room for an audit of shot selection. Have to find a healthy balance.

[Neal Romer]

That being said, that doesn't mean some of these guys aren't jacking up shots when they shouldn't. Always room for an audit of shot selection. Have to find a healthy balance.


Yeah. Tatum for instance takes a lot of bad shots and just isnt great at them. It's easy to see just by watching and being objective, but you can also simply point to the fact there are many other "first option" shooters who take the same supposed bail out shots and arent shooting a saggy 34%.

He has a good enough team and does enough other things well that it hasnt bit them in the ass so far, tho it's not impossible it still could. He just does not have good shot selection or a consistent ability to make tough shots, compared with the game's elite players.

It's very simple to see and admit unless you have some personal investment related to believing Tatum is somehow perfect. I dont mean you personally, just in theory there could be someone out there like that.

[Neal Romer]

For instance Donovan Mitchell takes bad threes and bail outs but at least shoots 37%. Doncic takes a lot of heat checks and bail outs, shoots 37%. SGA is up around 37%. Brunson 38%. Edwards finished at 40%. Kyrie before the injury was 40%. Joker is 42%.

All those guys take bail out shots. Theyre just better at them than 34% Tatum.

It's not the end of the world. Tatum is better at some other things than those guys. But shot selection is definitely the clearest weakness in his game. Youd have to have a weird emotional attachment to him not to just be able to admit it.

[Real Men Wear Green]

And you would have to have a weird emotional attachment to me to post consecutive passive aggressive messages in my direction, yet here we are.

[Neal Romer]

And you would have to have a weird emotional attachment to me to post consecutive passive aggressive messages in my direction, yet here we are.

:lol

[Full Court]

The context of the shot matters. Those other guys are taking easier shots because someone is taking tougher ones.

For reference, the average half-court play (put-backs removed) is worth 0.978 points. The top-ranked team is Cleveland at 1.059 points per play. A good pull-up three-point shooter can shoot in excess of 33% on moderate to high volume. This is a shot that's relatively easy to self-generate and naturally has a low turnover rate.

33% 3PT = 50% 2PT = roughly 1.0 point per play
35% 3PT = 1.05 points per play
37% 3PT = 1.11 points per play
40% 3PT = 1.20 points per play

Guys like Tatum would be raining 40%+ pull-up threes all night if the defense didn't guard them. But they do, and it opens up driving and passing lanes. The systemic offensive value of these shots cannot be ignored. They're one of the easiest ways to create an advantage. But you also need someone who can take advantage of that advantage. Meaning, the requisite ball handling, slashing, and passing. Luka, Tatum, Harden, etc.

That's good analysis.