Gotterdammerung's 2025 NBA Playoff Picks!

[Gotterdammerung]

Eastern Conference
Miami Heat @ Cleveland Cavaliers
The Cavs are built the right way. They have size, athleticism, scoring balance & actual defensive integrity. Rare commodities in today's chuck n duck league. Mitchell has evolved past the empty calorie scoring diet he thrived on in Utah. Now, he's efficient, engaged defensively & understands pace. Darius Garland is a jitterbug with vision & touch, & Evan Mobely is the type of versatile big every modern contender must have: long, switchable, & still scratching his tremendous upside potential. Jarrett Allen can't shoot beyond 10 feet but his rim protection & rebounding are foundational. But what's truly scary about these Cavs is their defense. Their opponents' FG% means they don't just put up empty numbers. They guard. And when a team locks you up also puts up 120? That's trouble.

Miami? Jeeeebus. Plugging Andrew Wiggins in Jimmy Butler won't cut it. Wiggins is a solid passenger on a solid team, never the driver. The Heat traded their engine for someone who never showed urgency since college. Tyler Herro puts up stats, but he's allergic to physical D. Yes, he was on fire in the play-in, but that's against Chicago & Atlanta. 'Nuff said! Bam Adebayo is solid, plays hard, switches & has interior muscle. But he cannot anchor both ends of the floor, esp with Wiggins floating like waiting for someone else to make an executive decision. Spoelstra is still an elite coach, but you can only polish a turd so much until you realize it's still a turd. Miami is outgunned, outclassed & outta time.
Cavs in 4

Orlando Magic @ Boston Celtics

The Celtics are the most dangerous team in the league... if they're healthy. But "if" doesn't win playoff series. Jaylen Brown is already getting shot up like a broken down middleweight before a title fight. 5 of their top 7 missed over double-digit games. That's not depth. It's duct tape. Yes, the Celts set the 3 point record. Good for them. But you can win a bar bet with that stat, not a playoff war. Living by 3 is nice in the regular season when you're running teams outta the gym. But when the game slows down, bodies collide, & every shot comes under duress, that hot hand cools off pretty quick. Celtics' entire scheme hinges on rhythm & spacing. The playoffs offer neither. Jayson Tatum is a bonafide top-5 player. Tough, long, can score from anywhere, & defends. But he's also notorious for disappearing during crunchtime when defenses key in & whistles tighten.

The Magic is raw, flawed & undermanned, but they're not soft. Paolo Banchero is a legit mismatch nightmare. He has the body of a four & the skill set of a guard. He plays with edge, welcomes contact & doesn't get rattled. Losing Suggs hurt. He was their best perimeter defender & gave em just enough secondary scoring. But this team has no quit in them. They won 2 out of 3 vs the Celtics: they punked them physically & forced them into bad habits. Jonathan Issac is back & healthy for now, giving them a long switchy defender to throw at Tatum. Wendell Carter jr has interior muscle to offset the Celts' stretch-big gimmick. Don't expect any finesse from them. They're here to body you up & turn the playoffs into a 1997 Easter conference smash-mouth game. But the Magic can't keep up offensively. Can't win a 7 game series by scoring 94 points per night & hope the Celtics forgot how to shoot. Eventually talent will overwhelm effort.
Celtics in 6

Detroit Pistons @ New York Knicks
The Knicks won 51 games but they struck fear in none of the elite teams. They beat up on the bottom feeders & shrank in the spotlight. Jalen Brunson is the heart, soul & backbone of this team. But he's also a 6' 2" bullseye in a league full of long limbed predators. His game is all grit, footwork, & craft, but when he takes pounding night after night, injuries aren't bad luck. They're inevitable. He missed time this year, & while he's back, that ankle is one bad roll to turn the tide in this series. KAT puts up big numbers, but we don't measure playoff value by stats. We do by stops & second effort. KAT still defends like he's allergic to contact. Offensively he stretches the floor & gives Brunson room to operate. Defensively he's still a turnstile in sneakers. That trade added flash & subtracted backbone. The supporting cast is full of Swiss army knives in Anunoby, Bridges, Hart. All versatile, tough & know their roles. Hart will dive for loose balls every game. But as the third best player? That means your ceiling isn't very high.

The Pistons don't care about your narratives. They're young, hungry & flat out beat the Knicks 3 out of 4 this season. Cade Cunningham has arrived. He sees the floor like a vet & scores like a star. While he still has to prove he can carry a team in the playoffs, his skillset is tailor-made for the halfcourt grind. The Pistons have that dangerous mix of talent & youthful arrogance. They don't know they're supposed to lose. They punch first & ask questions later. That makes them dangerous. The Knicks with their shitty postseason resume & bad habits against strong teams are ripe for upset. But the difference is Brunson. When the lights are brightest, he shows up. Drags defenders in the post, picks them apart with the midrange & controls the tempo like a maestro. IF his ankle holds up, he can tilt this series by sheer force of will.
Knicks in 7

Milwaukee Bucks @ Indiana Pacers
This series is closer to a coin flip than it looks on paper. The Pacers ended with 12-3 kick, but that was against tanking teams. They play fast, move the ball & won't beat themselves. That's a luxury in today's NBA. Pascal Siakam is the guy who gets things done w/o fanfare: efficient, physical & versatile. Won't dominate the game but he makes winning plays. Tyrese Haliburton's numbers are down from last year but he still controls the game like a seasoned PG. And his assist-to-turnover ratio makes old school coach misty-eyed. But he's not a killer. Yet. The Pacers' strength is cohesion. That'll keep them in games but won't help if or when Giannis goes nuclear.

Antetokounmpo will put up monster numbers. You can pencil in 30, 12, 6 before tipoff. But he has to do everything. Again. We've seen this movie before. Giannis can carry a team, but he cannot clone himself. His teammates? Whatta joke. The Bucks' depth chart reads more like a MASH unit than a contender's roster. Damian Lillard, even if he returns, expecting peak Dame Time after blood clots is wishful thinking. He already missed a quarter of the season & hasn't looked explosive since Christmas. If he's out, the Bucks are one-dimensional. If he's in, but limited, that's even worse. Now they're wasting minutes on a name not a player. Trading Middleton for Kuzma was a panic move. Kuz is bigger younger and healthier, but he's so inconsistent that he still thinks he's a first option. Nope. The Bucks did win the season series 3-1, but the playoffs are slower, more physical & more about execution than transition buckets. And the Pacers for all their flaws are better at executing because they have had a consistent lineup for more than two weeks.
Pacers in 7

[Gotterdammerung]

Western Conference
Memphis Grizzlies @ Oklahoma City Thunder
The OKC Thunder are a 68-win machine, a juggernaut with speed, spacing, switchability & actual BB IQ. Something that's gone missing in far too many modern front offices. They beat up the leagues' punching bags & took care of business against the legit contenders. That's the mark of a true title threat. SGA is as smooth & efficient as they come. Gets to his spots, plays at his own pace, defense w/ purpose. He's not trying to sell sneakers. He just wins. Jalen Williams is th perfect co-star. Big, tough, versatile, & completely unbothered by the moment. Chet Holmgren adds size & rim protection w/o clogging the offense & Isaiah Hartenstien gives em old-fashioned rebounding & elbows in the ribs toughness. Dort, still doing the dirty work nobody talks about & drills threes just enough to keep D honest. This team doesn't just have talent. They got an identity.

Memphis was a preseason darling that fell apart. Ja Morant is still a human highlight reel, but he's stuck in between two personas: franchise star & walking headcase. When he's locked in, he's electric. But trust isn't built on highlights. It's built on consistency. Desmond Bane is the grown up in the room & if the Grizz had more of him, we would be having a different conversation. Instead, they fired their coach down the stretch & turned the keys over to a guy whose claim to fame is not being Taylor Jenkins. That's a panic move, not a serious one. The Grizz slipped from second to eight cuz they deserved it. They don't defend with urgency, they don't execute under pressure, & they got outclassed every time they faced the OKC Thunder. This isn't a matchup. It's a mismatch.
OKC in 4

Golden State Warriors @ Houston Rockets
The Rockets don't give a s#!t about your highlights, sneaker deals, or your SM metrics. They rebound, defend, & they make you feel them for 48 minutes. That's playoff ball. And that's why they've been a problem for everyone all year long. Not pretty but real. Jalen Green is a human rollercoaster. 21 a game & not a clue where his next shot is coming from. Either lighting it up or lighting the building on fire. But the Rockets' structure is tight enough to withstand his bad nights. They don't rely on chaos. They survive it. Alperen Sengun is the fulcrum. Soft hands, sharp instincts, & old man game in a young body. He's what Sabonis wishes he was: tougher, more mobile, & less addicted to padding stats. Everything flows through him, & when he's got it going, the Rockets' offense hums just enough to match their D. FVV, hardly flashy or fast, or even fun to watch. But he wins. Championship DNA isn't a buzzword. It's a filter for the playoffs. He doesn't turn it over. He runs the show, & make a timely 3 when the other team is arguing about a missed call. He's not scared of GSW & he sure ain't scared of Curry.

GSW, stop pretending this is 2018. That dynasty is running on fumes & name recognition. Curry is dangerous but he's 37 now, & the legs aren't there every night. Shot 1-10 in a critical late season matchup vs the Rockets. That's not fluke. It's wear & tear. Jimmy Butler gives them a shot in the arm, but let's not pretend he's prime Wade alla sudden. He put up 38 vs Grizzlies that already had their bags packed. Big deal. He's 35, banged up & you can't fix a mediocre team overnight just by adding one guy. Esp a guy who plays at his own pace, his own rhythm, and sometimes in his own world. GSW moves the ball well & has that ingrained offensive rhythm, but their defense is a pale shadow of what it once was. Draymond is more bark than bite now. Klay is history. And Coach Kerr ran out of rabbits to pull out of that old hat.
Rockets in 6

Minnesota Timberwolves @ LA Lakers
The Lakers are Luka Doncic's team. LBJ isn't handing the torch over. He already did & is now running on legacy fumes & savvy halfcourt reads. That's no knock on him. Just straight biology. The surprise is that he finally found a co-star he's willing to play next to instead of on top of. Luka is that rare breed: ball-dominant AND productive. With the kind of feel for the game that cannot be taught. Doncic is a problem for the rest of the league. He puts up video game numbers, but unlike past Lakers stars who need the ball to thrive, he knows how to use pace, mismatches, & manipulation like a surgeon. He averaged 28, 8, 7 in limited run & you get the feeling he barely broke a sweat doing it. But the real key is this: the Lakers have finally embraced what they are: a Luka led team with LBJ as the best Plan B in the game. AR15 is the great illusion. He plays hard, can pass & score... and gets roasted on defense like Sunday brisket. Still, useful especially in lineups as the third option. But if you're relying on him to win a playoff game? You already lost.

The Timberwolves SHOULD win this series. On paper, they have the tools Ant is a wrecking ball when he plays downhill. Randle can punish mismatches, & Naz Reid gives them muscle off the bench. And the Mighty Gobot, if he gets his head out of the clouds, is still a paint deterrent. But games aren't played on paper. They're played on the hardwood & the T-Woofs tend to treat that hardwood like it's lava when the pressure hits. Charles Barkley said they're "dumb as rocks" cuz they don't understand time, score, matchups or flow. Coach Finch could draw up Rembrandt level schemes on the clipboard, but when his guys walk on the floor, they suddenly have amnesia. Ant will pull up from 30 instead of attacking LBJ's old ass legs. Randle will throw up fadeaways instead of bullying AR15 in the post. And Gobert will always be moving in slomo, even when he's standing still.

And there's Coach Redick. Coaching a team straight out of the broadcast booth is one thing when you got LBJ as your offensive coordinator & Luka as your PG. But he's not outcoaching anyone. He's riding talent plain & simple. The gimmick D he's tossing out will get exposed, but not by a team as offensively undisciplined as the Woofs.
Lakers in 7

[Gotterdammerung]

LA Clippers @ Denver Nuggets
The Nuggs may be a walking soap opera: firing both the coach & GM with 3 games left in the season isn't exactly a masterclass of stability. But that's moot when you got Nikola Jokic, the best player in the game & maybe the only superstar who actually plays like he understands the game. Won't need to run sets for him. He is the system. Controls tempo, touches every possession, & plays the game 5 moves ahead. Jamal Murray is still inconsistent. Coasting on bubble-era mythology. He's been living off that 2023 finals run like it was his LinkedIn profile. MPJR puts up numbers but defends like a guy wearing cement sneakers. Braun is a plug & play grinder. Aaron Gordon plays in the cracks. And Russell Westbrook isn't the liability the media wants him to be. He plays hard, keeps the offense moving, & doesn't try to hijack games anymore. He found a role & stuck to it. The problem? Defense. The Nuggs don't do it. They lean on offensive efficiency like a crutch & pray their stars stay healthy. Thin bench, bigs are soft outside of the Joker, & can't survive foul trouble for more than 5 minutes without s#!t going sideways.

The Clippers have a top 5 D on paper, a championship level coach, deep bench & a balanced offense. In reality? They got James Harden. That's the kiss of death. He still puts up counting stats but when it matters? He disappears faster than a puff of smoke in a wind tunnel. Whether it's the back rims he clanks or the careless turnovers, you can count on him to be at his worst when the moment is at its biggest. Don't be fooled by that token 40 point outburst in Game 2. He'll follow it with a 3-14 clunker with 6 TO and a look of bewilderment like someone else let the team down. Leonard is a machine when healthy. That's the big asterisk. He played in just 41 playoff games in 6 years. He's either rehabbing, limping or missing entirely. It's not a question of if he gets hurt, but when. That leaves the Clips relying on Harden & praying that Norm Powell can channel his inner Vinnie Microwave Johnson. Good luck.

Coach Lue & JVG has them defending hard, switching well & scrapping for 48 minutes. But coaching can only get you so far when your best guy's knees are on borrowed time & your second best guy is a proven playoff saboteur.

Nuggets in 6

[MrFonzworth]

:cheers:

[Wally450]

Always enjoy reading these.

[ArbitraryWater]

:rockon:

[ArbitraryWater]

I wonder if all your previous editions are still up?

[warriorfan]

Good predictions but heads up that the warriors have had either the 1st or 2nd ranked best defense since the butler trade.

[Gotterdammerung]

I wonder if all your previous editions are still up?

Maybe, but I can't search for my old posts. :confusedshrug:

[Gotterdammerung]

Good predictions but heads up that the warriors have had either the 1st or 2nd ranked best defense since the butler trade.

Indeed, but irrelevant.

While I haven't been watching as much this year as in years past, I did watch the entire Grizzlies-Warriors Play-In game.

GSW barely escaped a sh!tty Grizz team held together with spit & glue.

At first they rolled to 20 points lead, but in the second half, their legs went dead & their defense got weaker & weaker. Grizz fought back but they lack composure & ball security.

It was Jimmy Butler who did it. Not Curry. As usual, Jimmy played like his life was on the line, like the game was Game 7.

Curry's box score was deceptive. He played more like Trae Young than "Steph the Assassin." He is still great, but sometimes he confuses difficulty with brilliance. Why? His shot selection becomes self-indulgent in the clutch.

Anyway the Grizz had 50 to 39 rebounding edge. But they threw the ball away 19 times. This is basic BB IQ. If you win the boards, & still lose? that tells me all I need to know. You have no idea how to manage the game.

Now for the Rockets. They're a young & hungry team, very physical. They lead the league in rebounds AND take care of the ball like it's a newborn.

Exactly what GSW struggles with.

Butler & Curry can steal a game or two. But it's a bad style matchup. The Rockets will hammer GSW on ever missed boxout & every weak side rotation that shows its age.

GSW's experience is really tired legs.

[warriorfan]

Indeed, but irrelevant.

While I haven't been watching as much this year as in years past, I did watch the entire Grizzlies-Warriors Play-In game.

GSW barely escaped a sh!tty Grizz team held together with spit & glue.

At first they rolled to 20 points lead, but in the second half, their legs went dead & their defense got weaker & weaker. Grizz fought back but they lack composure & ball security.

It was Jimmy Butler who did it. Not Curry. As usual, Jimmy played like his life was on the line, like the game was Game 7.

Curry's box score was deceptive. He played more like Trae Young than "Steph the Assassin." He is still great, but sometimes he confuses difficulty with brilliance. Why? His shot selection becomes self-indulgent in the clutch.

Anyway the Grizz had 50 to 39 rebounding edge. But they threw the ball away 19 times. This is basic BB IQ. If you win the boards, & still lose? that tells me all I need to know. You have no idea how to manage the game.

Now for the Rockets. They're a young & hungry team, very physical. They lead the league in rebounds AND take care of the ball like it's a newborn.

Exactly what GSW struggles with.

Butler & Curry can steal a game or two. But it's a bad style matchup. The Rockets will hammer GSW on ever missed boxout & every weak side rotation that shows its age.

GSW's experience is really tired legs.

Those criticisms are fair you just made a passing comment at the end about how the warriors defense doesn’t compare to the teams of old, makes it seem like their defense is mediocre when really it’s been elite since the Butler trade.

[MrFonzworth]

I wonder if all your previous editions are still up?

Only a couple.

http://www.insidehoops.com/forum/showthread.php?510795-Gotterdammerung-s-2023-Playoff-predictions

http://www.insidehoops.com/forum/showthread.php?517191-Gotterdammerung-s-2024-NBA-Playoffs-Picks!

[ArbitraryWater]

Only a couple.

http://www.insidehoops.com/forum/showthread.php?510795-Gotterdammerung-s-2023-Playoff-predictions

http://www.insidehoops.com/forum/showthread.php?517191-Gotterdammerung-s-2024-NBA-Playoffs-Picks!

2023, 2024, and...


2015!

http://www.insidehoops.com/forum/showthread.php?373506-Gotterdammerung-s-2015-Playoff-Picks!
(thread seems to be messed up)


Damn.

I wonder how far they go back.


Jeff purged it all, dam sob.

[dankok8]

Good predictions. I had similar ones except I had Warriors and Clippers winning their series.

[ShawkFactory]

Love it :applause:

I don't even care that I disagree with a few of the picks.

[Chick Stern]

Good predictions but heads up that the warriors have had either the 1st or 2nd ranked best defense since the butler trade.

Against an absolute shit-show of weak teams

[Gotterdammerung]

2025 Eastern Conference Semifinals
New York Knicks vs Boston Celtics

The Knicks could win... just like a one legged dude can win a butt kicking contest. But it will need a perfect storm of grit, luck & the Celtics tripping over their own shoelaces. If I were coaching the Knicks, I would force a street fight Make it ugly. Get physical. Chase the Celts off the three point line & pray the referees forgot their whistles.

Basically just straight up copy the Orlando Magic's blueprint but with talent. The Knicks are tougher & more experienced than the Magic, but that doesn't mean they're better than the Celtics. This isn't 1994 & Anthony Mason isn't walking through the door.

Coach Thibs still yells defense but the 2025 Knicks don't guard like his old Bulls teams.

They have slipped - from a top 2 defense to a middle of the pack unit that gives up clean looks like a charity organization. KAT juiced their offense, but also injected their defense with novocaine.

The Magic did everything right on defense: hold the Celts under 110 in 5 of their 6 games. Cut their threes in half. But the Magic couldn't score consistently, so that didn't matter.

The Knicks are better at scoring, at least in theory. They averaged 116 in the regular season & 108 against the Pistons, a real defensive team. But beating up the Pistons isn't exactly a resume builder.

The Celts dusted the Knicks 4-0 in the regular season & blew em out 3 of those four games. That's a reality check.

The Celtics will win cuz they're deeper, smarter, longer, & meaner.

Tatum & Brown are matchup nightmares. Thibs may scheme up some clever coverages, but that won't work for 7 games. Tatum torched the Knicks for 33.5 ppg this year. Brown's numbers fell but due to opportunity not ability. In the playoffs, those floodgates will be wide open.

And there's the rest of the hit squad:
Derrick White is a coach's dream.
KP stretches the floor & defends the rim.
Jrue Holiday's D is still brutal & sharp.

The Celtics defend with discipline & scores in variety.

While the media drooled over OKC & the Cavaliers' shiny win totals, & the Lakers & GSW made splashy trades, the Celtics casually won 60 plus & stayed near the top of the standings.

The Knicks' record vs top tier teams is pathetic. They didn't just lose to the Celts. They got manhandled. Also went 0-4 vs the Cavs. 0-2 vs OKC. 0-2 vs GSW. 0-2 vs the Clippers. No coincidence. That's their ceiling.

NYK plays "good" basketball, but good ain't good enough to beat the Celtics.

Jalen Brunson is a bulldog. KAT can score from 30 feet away. But they're a few pieces short of serious.

Boston in 5. Won't be close.

[Xiao Yao You]

Lakers in 7

:no:

[Gotterdammerung]

Indiana Pacers vs Cleveland Cavaliers

The Pacers play fast, score a lot & defend like they'd rather not break a sweat. Yes, they led the league in offensive fireworks (3rd in FG%, 7th in scoring) but their D is as soft as a summer breeze. 17th in points allowed, 23rd in D FG%.

Won't win titles with that kind of effort. Not unless you're planning to outgun the other team every night. This isn't the ABA in 1975.

Yes the Pacers handled the Bucks in 5. But let's not canonize them just yet. Siakam did what he's supposed to do: efficient scoring & solid play. Haliburton, slick passing, High IQ BB, but still treats defense like it's optional. Turner blocks a lot but rebounds like a small forward. Nembhard is scrappy & dependable but if he's your third or fourth best guy, your ceiling caps out at the 2nd round.

The Cavaliers are built old-school: size, defense, depth & just enough star power to make the entire thing hum. Not flashy but frighteningly effective.

Best offense in the league at 121.9 ppg.
Just as nasty on the other end: 3rd in D FG%, 6th in rebounding.
No glaring weakness unless you think your best player is 6' 1" in heels a fatal flaw.

Most important thing is that Donovan Mitchell bought in.
He let Mobely eat, & now Mobely is DPOY with a career high scoring season.
Darius Garland is an All-Star again. Jarrett Allen is shooting 70% from the night & gobbling near 10 per.

The team's point differential (+9.5) is in the same rarefied air as the 86 Celtics, the 91 Bulls & the 97 Bulls. No exaggeration. But this is why nobody is talking about the Cavs like a dynasty in waiting:
OKC stole their thunder.
Cavs haven't proven anything in the playoffs.
No superstar wing anchoring the roster. Just a bunch of 6' 3" guys & versatile bigs doing the dirty work.

Maybe they're the 2004 Pistons v.2.0. Or maybe they will flame out before the Finals & we never speak of them again.

But they have the profile of a title contender, a complete one.

The Pacers will make it fun. Maybe even steal two games on hot shooting nights. But they cannot rebound with the Cavailers. They cannot stop them & they sure as hell can't beat them 4 times.

Cleveland in 6

[Gotterdammerung]

Lakers in 7

:no:

How are the Jazz doing these days?
:kobe:

[Xiao Yao You]

Top odds for flagg. Right where they were trying to be. Still trying to replace the guy that carried them for a decade

[Gotterdammerung]

Top odds for flagg. Right where they were trying to be. Still trying to replace the guy that carried them for a decade

If Flagg ends up in SLC then the Jazz can stop pretending their timeline is 5 years away.

Actually start building something that matters.

Till then they're just another small market team lost in a sea of draft odds & empty promises.

[Xiao Yao You]

If Flagg ends up in SLC then the Jazz can stop pretending their timeline is 5 years away.

Actually start building something that matters.

Till then they're just another small market team lost in a sea of draft odds & empty promises.
Could go after giannis too. Many ootions when you have assets and flexibility

[Gotterdammerung]

Denver Nuggets vs Oklahoma City Thunder

The Nuggets can win this series if they turn it into a street fight in the paint & force OKC to play slow, grind-it-out basketball. They don't have the legs to run with the Thunder & they know it. The Joker, for all his wizardry can't chase these young bucks for 48 minutes every night. So he gotta drag them into the mud.

He's still the best offensive hub in the NBA. Borderline absurd numbers (24, 12, 10 in round one) but those triple double # only matters if it leads to physical domination. Gordon has to play like a grown man for 7 games. Not just dunk on breakaways & MPJr has to show up on both ends, not just float like a ghost in the corners.

Westbrook, once the face of OKC, is now a vet with the Nuggets. He brings energy & chaos but if he plays for more than 20 minutes the Nuggets are in trouble. Won't beat OKC with turnovers & bricks.

The Nuggets must bludgeon the Thunder inside, get to the bonus early & milk the clock. That's how you beat a team that's younger, faster, deeper. But if they get in a track meet, it's over.

Because the Thunder has depth, defense & are disciplined, they'll win.
Forget the numbers. What makes OKC different is they play defense like they're on commission. Force turnovers, protect the basket & rarely beat themselves.

Shai Gilgeous Alexander is a metronome. Calm, unhurried & surgical. Even when he shoots like crap he still dictates the rhythm of the game. That's what MVPs do. J-Dub is on his way into becoming a two-way beast. Holmgren & Hartenstein fixed up that soft middle from last year.

More importantly, they have layers. When SGA is off, J-Dub steps up. If Gordon bullies Chet, Hartenstein will rough him up. They won't fold but recalibrate. They're too deep, too disciplined & too ready.

The Nuggets will punch, the Joker will dazzle. But it'll be Oklahoma in 6

[Nowoco]

It's amusing that this guy puts so much effort and calculation into his picks and yet his predictions are no better or worse than anyone else's.

They're basically just incorrect picks that take longer to read.

[Real Men Wear Green]

It's amusing that this guy puts so much effort and calculation into his picks and yet his predictions are no better or worse than anyone else's.

They're basically just incorrect picks that take longer to read.
There are paid analysts that will make picks with detailed explanations on both sides of every series. He's putting content on the site that isn't just troll spam and putting honest effort in. Right or wrong, it's not that serious anyway.

[hold this L]

Golden State Warriors @ Houston Rockets
The Rockets don't give a s#!t about your highlights, sneaker deals, or your SM metrics. They rebound, defend, & they make you feel them for 48 minutes. That's playoff ball. And that's why they've been a problem for everyone all year long. Not pretty but real. Jalen Green is a human rollercoaster. 21 a game & not a clue where his next shot is coming from. Either lighting it up or lighting the building on fire. But the Rockets' structure is tight enough to withstand his bad nights. They don't rely on chaos. They survive it. Alperen Sengun is the fulcrum. Soft hands, sharp instincts, & old man game in a young body. He's what Sabonis wishes he was: tougher, more mobile, & less addicted to padding stats. Everything flows through him, & when he's got it going, the Rockets' offense hums just enough to match their D. FVV, hardly flashy or fast, or even fun to watch. But he wins. Championship DNA isn't a buzzword. It's a filter for the playoffs. He doesn't turn it over. He runs the show, & make a timely 3 when the other team is arguing about a missed call. He's not scared of GSW & he sure ain't scared of Curry.

GSW, stop pretending this is 2018. That dynasty is running on fumes & name recognition. Curry is dangerous but he's 37 now, & the legs aren't there every night. Shot 1-10 in a critical late season matchup vs the Rockets. That's not fluke. It's wear & tear. Jimmy Butler gives them a shot in the arm, but let's not pretend he's prime Wade alla sudden. He put up 38 vs Grizzlies that already had their bags packed. Big deal. He's 35, banged up & you can't fix a mediocre team overnight just by adding one guy. Esp a guy who plays at his own pace, his own rhythm, and sometimes in his own world. GSW moves the ball well & has that ingrained offensive rhythm, but their defense is a pale shadow of what it once was. Draymond is more bark than bite now. Klay is history. And Coach Kerr ran out of rabbits to pull out of that old hat.
Rockets in 6
https://media.tenor.com/fWg9gm1CrdYAAAAM/lebron-james-crying.gif

[Gotterdammerung]

It's amusing that this guy puts so much effort and calculation into his picks and yet his predictions are no better or worse than anyone else's.

They're basically just incorrect picks that take longer to read.

Overall record: 6-2 in series winners. Respectable, if not perfect. Got caught giving too much credit to veterans on fumes (Lakers) and not enough to cohesion & continuity (Wolves, Warriors). Round 2 is where pretenders get smoked & grown-ups take over.

Predicting playoffs isn't about clairvoyance. It's about understanding the game. The matchups, the schemes, the cracks in the armor that don't show up on highlight reels or SM clips.

Welcome to the playoffs, where rotations shorten, coaches panic, shot variances swing legacies.

If all you want is a correct bracket, go flip a coin. But if you want to know why the Rockets melted under pressure or how the Wolves outmuscled the Lakers or what the Nuggets' slow rotations mean in round 2, you won't get it anywhere else.

I wasn't off cuz of ignorance. More likely cuz certain guys forgot how to play grown-up basketball when it counted. I'll take being wrong for the right reasons over being "right" cuz some clown lucked into picking the team with more IG followers.

Now go enjoy your spreadsheet of guesses & let the adults talk hoop.

[warriorfan]

Overall record: 6-2 in series winners. Respectable, if not perfect. Got caught giving too much credit to veterans on fumes (Lakers) and not enough to cohesion & continuity (Wolves, Warriors). Round 2 is where pretenders get smoked & grown-ups take over.

Predicting playoffs isn't about clairvoyance. It's about understanding the game. The matchups, the schemes, the cracks in the armor that don't show up on highlight reels or SM clips.

Welcome to the playoffs, where rotations shorten, coaches panic, shot variances swing legacies.

If all you want is a correct bracket, go flip a coin. But if you want to know why the Rockets melted under pressure or how the Wolves outmuscled the Lakers or what the Nuggets' slow rotations mean in round 2, you won't get it anywhere else.

I wasn't off cuz of ignorance. More likely cuz certain guys forgot how to play grown-up basketball when it counted. I'll take being wrong for the right reasons over being "right" cuz some clown lucked into picking the team with more IG followers.

Now go enjoy your spreadsheet of guesses & let the adults talk hoop.

I was trying to tell you the Warriors defense has been absolutely elite since All Star break.

The young and inexperienced roster of the rockets reeked of potential meltdown.

Not trying to rub it in or anything. I got the Clippers and Lakers series wrong.



East Coast was pretty straight forward. Does anyone have their bracket intact still?

[ArbitraryWater]

It's amusing that this guy puts so much effort and calculation into his picks and yet his predictions are no better or worse than anyone else's.

They're basically just incorrect picks that take longer to read.

This is the case for every analyst / expert etc. Its normal. Gambling isnt something anyone can make money with.

These are still good insights, because it COUlD play out that way. There are several ways somehing could play out.


But buddy, are you like 20?

You insisted the Clips were much better than the Nuggets after 2 games, and said Lakers would sweep the Wolves...

you need to sit down. You are among the dumbest of the dumb here :lol

[tpols]

Golden State Warriors @ Houston Rockets
The Rockets don't give a s#!t about your highlights, sneaker deals, or your SM metrics. They rebound, defend, & they make you feel them for 48 minutes. That's playoff ball. And that's why they've been a problem for everyone all year long. Not pretty but real. Jalen Green is a human rollercoaster. 21 a game & not a clue where his next shot is coming from. Either lighting it up or lighting the building on fire. But the Rockets' structure is tight enough to withstand his bad nights. They don't rely on chaos. They survive it. Alperen Sengun is the fulcrum. Soft hands, sharp instincts, & old man game in a young body. He's what Sabonis wishes he was: tougher, more mobile, & less addicted to padding stats. Everything flows through him, & when he's got it going, the Rockets' offense hums just enough to match their D. FVV, hardly flashy or fast, or even fun to watch. But he wins. Championship DNA isn't a buzzword. It's a filter for the playoffs. He doesn't turn it over. He runs the show, & make a timely 3 when the other team is arguing about a missed call. He's not scared of GSW & he sure ain't scared of Curry.

GSW, stop pretending this is 2018. That dynasty is running on fumes & name recognition. Curry is dangerous but he's 37 now, & the legs aren't there every night. Shot 1-10 in a critical late season matchup vs the Rockets. That's not fluke. It's wear & tear. Jimmy Butler gives them a shot in the arm, but let's not pretend he's prime Wade alla sudden. He put up 38 vs Grizzlies that already had their bags packed. Big deal. He's 35, banged up & you can't fix a mediocre team overnight just by adding one guy. Esp a guy who plays at his own pace, his own rhythm, and sometimes in his own world. GSW moves the ball well & has that ingrained offensive rhythm, but their defense is a pale shadow of what it once was. Draymond is more bark than bite now. Klay is history. And Coach Kerr ran out of rabbits to pull out of that old hat.

Rockets in 6


You bombed on this one my boy.

[Gotterdammerung]

Golden State Warriors vs Minnesota Timberwolves

The Warriors are running on fumes & smoke. They've patched together a second round appearance thanks to a heroic Buddy Hield anomaly & the midseason addition of Jimmy Butler, who brings some 90s grit to this era of load management & empty stats.

GSW could win, if... everything breaks perfectly:
Curry stays fresh.
Butler muscles his way to the line & lives there.
GSW's paper thin defense bottles up Anthony Edwards w/o giving up wide open shots to the Wolves' supporting cast.

Unicorn parlay.

They survived the Rockets in 7 not because they dominated, but cuz the Rockets forgot how to score. Curry shot like a YMCA chucker in games 5 and 6 (13 for 35 with 8 TO). If it wasn't for Buddy going nuclear in game 7, they all would be in Cancun.

Curry is an all-time talent. But he's also historically vulnerable in long playoff slogs. His frame wears down. He gets hunted on defense. Single Finals MVP in 4 titles compared to say, Shaq's 3 in 4, Duncan's 3 in 5, tells a story the fanboys refuse to read.

Butler OTOH has been the adult in the room. Efficient, clutch & tough. He's the reason GSW is even in this series. But this isn't Miami. He isn't flanked by Bam or Spoelstra. He's propping up a team built around nostalgia.

Draymond Green is a glorified role player who's been riding coattails of superior teammates for a decade. Triple singles don't win playoff games. When he's not kicking opponents or sabotaging momentum with technicals, he is bricking wide open threes & clogging the offense. Impact more myth than measurable.

The Timberwolves will win because: they're bigger, stronger, & finally playing smart.

Unlike the Rockets, they know what to do with a size advantage. They don't settle. They punish.

Ant is a legitimate alpha. Not a volume scorer hiding behind a million screens. But a physical force who's already outdueled Luka, KD, LBJ, & Joker in the playoffs. That's not hype. That's resume.

And the Wolves didn't do the cowardly modern NBA thing, try to match the Lakers' small ball. No they imposed their will. Beat them up in the paint, win the rebounding, & control tempo.

Randle may be no Karl Malone but he's a load to handle when attacking with purpose. Against the Lakers he hit threes when left open & barreled to the basket when crowded. His presence has unlocked floor spacing that KAT never quite provided.

Jaden McDaniels is the kind of versatile, long armed wing who used to be every championship team's requirement before everyone got obsessed with stretch bigs. He can switch, score, & never plays outside his role.

And Rudy Gobert, the public punching bag of SM finally gets to silence Draymond Green on the floor. In 2017 Gobert did fine statistically against a fully loaded GSW team. Now he's up against a creaky Curry, a wing heavy roster, & zero legit bigs. If Gobert could eviscerate the Lakers' small lineup with 27 points & 24 boards, what's gonna happen with Kevon Looney & a washed up Green?

Unlike the Rockets, the Wolves know they're bigger & play like it. Won't fall for GSW sleight of hand small ball trickery. They'll stay big, stay physical & force them to play in the trenches. GSW's run ends here. The dynasty's last gasps have been audible since Christmas.

Bottom line:
Minnesota in 6 (only cuz Curry & Butler will steal one or two. But the grind will wear them down & T-Wolves finish what the Rockets didn't)

[Nowoco]

They survived the Rockets in 7 not because they dominated, but cuz the Rockets forgot how to score.

Curry is an all-time talent. But he's also historically vulnerable in long playoff slogs. His frame wears down. He gets hunted on defense. Single Finals MVP in 4 titles compared to say, Shaq's 3 in 4, Duncan's 3 in 5, tells a story the fanboys refuse to read.

What a load of absolute crap.

[Meticode]

What a load of absolute crap.

His take was pretty spot on about Curry.

[Nowoco]

His take was pretty spot on about Curry.

The reason Steph has one FMVP is because the voters are idiots who bought into the Iggy hype in the media which gave the illusion he was more effective on defense than he was. Had the voters been sequestered jury style, not one of them would have voted for Iggy. As for 2017 and 2018. You had an unguardable generational talent, in his prime, dropping bombs. Of course KD was going to win the FMVP on that roster. But even if it was split, someone has to win it. It's not often you have 2 of the 3 best players in the world on the same team. It takes nothing away from anyone who wins it. Did Bird care that Cornbread won it over him? Or Worthy over Magic? No it doesnt affect their legacy one bit. The only people who give a shit are the fanboy douchebags Gotter was droaning on about.

Saying the Rockets forgot how to score is a simplistic nonsense take and doesnt take into account the Warriors defense, hustle and amazingly, Stephs as well. Do you know who ran a longer distance than Curry in game 7 btw? No-one. Just because someone posts long winded takes with pompous username dropping thread titles, doesnt mean they have a clue what they're talking about.

[tpols]

His take was pretty spot on about Curry.

He said the same things about Curry going up against the Rockets. And that dray would have no impact there as well. You did too. :oldlol: You said Rockets in 5 or 6 after game 2.

And that blew up on you. Both of yall. So don't act smart now.

The Wolves are a different beast for sure though so you can be more confident here.

[Meticode]

He said the same things about Curry going up against the Rockets. And that dray would have no impact there as well. You did too. :oldlol: You said Rockets in 5 or 6 after game 2.

And that blew up on you. Both of yall. So don't act smart now.

The Wolves are a different beast for sure though so you can be more confident here.

His take on Curry was correct dureing the Rockets series. They didn't win the series because of Curry and certainly didn't win Game 7 because of him.

And I said if Butler came back from injury that the Warriors would win in 6-7 games, if he didn't come back at all the Rockets would in 5-6.

You're wrong yet again. lol

[Gotterdammerung]

:oldlol:

Somebody's having a moment! Keyboard ablaze, fingers trembling with rage, all to defend a poor 36 year old PG with a busted defensive resume & playoff mileage tab longer than the Grateful Dead tour.

On the so-called 2015 "robbery"
Poor old "Steph got screwed!" refrain. Sure, Iggy got a lot of media love for his defense on LBJ, who btw torched him for 35 plus per night on bad efficiency while playing 1 on 5. Voters bought into the narrative no doubt. But let's not pretend Curry's performance was any kind of dominant tour de force. He was good. Not transcendent. Had a shaky start to that series & played better as it went on, but didn't own it.

Also this myth that Finals MVP voters are a shadowy cabal of media sheep easily swayed by "hype"? :oldlol:
Gimme a break. Voters saw a GSW team win with D & role player contributions. They rewarded the guy who visibly shifted the defensive matchups. Right call? Maybe not. But sure wasn't some deep state anti-Steph conspiracy. Ain't no JFK.

Durant's dominance? Exactly. He was the best player on that team. That's the whole point. Steph's fans want it both ways: credit him as the team's soul, leader, engine, generational icon, AND hand him accolades he didn't earn. When your guy is dropping 35 a night on 60% true shooting while locking down the opposing star, he's going to get that MVP nod. Not voter idiocy. That's reality.

Bird, Magic, had egos too, but they also knew when someone else outplayed them. It doesn't "affect legacy" except when clowns like this poor sap keep trying to rewrite history to pad someone's trophy case.

Rockets' offense: What's nonsense is pretending GSW played "elite defense" in that series. They had moments, some timely switches, a couple of hard fought possessions. But go watch the tape. Rockets clanked open threes, turned the ball over on unforced errors & had possessions that looked like the YMCA scrimmage offense. GSW won cuz the Rockets imploded, not cuz they clamped down like the 2004 Pistons.

Also, "Steph ran the most distance?"
:durantunimpressed:
You wanna a medal for cardio? This sure ain't no cross country. He's constantly moving cuz they're hiding him on D & run him off the ball on offense so he doesn't get gassed handling the ball all game. Running is not defending. It's not even hustling when it's by design. Curry's effort is commendable, but lets not confuse motion with impact.

Calling my posts long-winded or pompous doesn't make it wrong. The analysis goes deeper than your piss-poor takes. Sometimes you need more than three buzzwords to understand a game. If quoting actual players or referencing history rubs you the wrong way, it's cuz you don't know enough of either.

TL; DR:
Curry's greatness sure doesn't need fictional Finals MVPs to be validated. But you don't get to whitewash playoff flaws, gloss over defensive liabilities, & cry voter injustice every time he's not handed a trophy. If you cannot handle real critique, maybe don't read breakdowns written for grown ups who watch all 48 minutes.

If you want to talk hoops, bring more than cardio stats & fanboy fury next time.
:kobe:

[tpols]

His take on Curry was correct dureing the Rockets series. They didn't win the series because of Curry and certainly didn't win Game 7 because of him.

And I said if Butler came back from injury that the Warriors would win in 6-7 games, if he didn't come back at all the Rockets would in 5-6.

You're wrong yet again. lol

:roll:

Bro you said after G2 the Warriors would lose in 5 or 6 without Butler and immediately after I called you out on saying GS would get swept at home Curry had probably his best game of the season and they won both home games.

You were dead wrong on that series and are now saying that didn't happen? Are you ****ing kidding me?

We have the receipts pal. Just take your L. The Wolves will likely make things up.

[Meticode]

The reason Steph has one FMVP is because the voters are idiots who bought into the Iggy hype in the media which gave the illusion he was more effective on defense than he was. Had the voters been sequestered jury style, not one of them would have voted for Iggy. As for 2017 and 2018. You had an unguardable generational talent, in his prime, dropping bombs. Of course KD was going to win the FMVP on that roster. But even if it was split, someone has to win it. It's not often you have 2 of the 3 best players in the world on the same team. It takes nothing away from anyone who wins it. Did Bird care that Cornbread won it over him? Or Worthy over Magic? No it doesnt affect their legacy one bit. The only people who give a shit are the fanboy douchebags Gotter was droaning on about.

Saying the Rockets forgot how to score is a simplistic nonsense take and doesnt take into account the Warriors defense, hustle and amazingly, Stephs as well. Do you know who ran a longer distance than Curry in game 7 btw? No-one. Just because someone posts long winded takes with pompous username dropping thread titles, doesnt mean they have a clue what they're talking about.
I don't care about the Rockets comment, my comment was just about Curry. His comments about Curry were pretty spot on. Especially in this series.

[Meticode]

:roll:

Bro you said after G2 the Warriors would lose in 5 or 6 without Butler and immediately after I called you out on saying GS would get swept at home Curry had probably his best game of the season and they won both home games.

You were dead wrong on that series and are now saying that didn't happen? Are you ****ing kidding me?

We have the receipts pal. Just take your L. The Wolves will likely make things up.

This will be my last reply on this because I think you need to go back and read in the thread. Whatever you post after this I won't be reading because you're wrong. Interpret it however the hell you want because I won't care after this post. Here's my original quote a page or two before you quoted me about Rockets in 5/6 with no Butler. Butler came back in Game 4. So my prediction that the Warriors would win in 6-7 (with Butler) was correct which completely nullifies the Rockets in 5-6 because Butler came back. I said Rockets in 5-6 if no Butler.

http://www.insidehoops.com/forum/showthread.php?521297-(2)-Rockets-vs-(7)-Warriors-First-Round-Playoff-Series-Thread&p=14995629&viewfull=1#post14995629


That's where our opinions differ. I think with Butler playing it's 6-7. Without it the Rockets win in 5-6 now.

[ArbitraryWater]

This will be my last reply on this because I think you need to go back and read in the thread. Whatever you post after this I won't be reading because you're wrong. Interpret it however the hell you want because I won't care after this post. Here's my original quote a page or two before you quoted me about Rockets in 5/6 with no Butler. Butler came back in Game 4. So my prediction that the Warriors would win in 6-7 (with Butler) was correct which completely nullifies the Rockets in 5-6 because Butler came back. I said Rockets in 5-6 if no Butler.

http://www.insidehoops.com/forum/showthread.php?521297-(2)-Rockets-vs-(7)-Warriors-First-Round-Playoff-Series-Thread&p=14995629&viewfull=1#post14995629

GSW won the only game without Butler so it seems pretty stupid to say you werent wrong.

[warriorfan]

The reason Steph has one FMVP is because the voters are idiots who bought into the Iggy hype in the media which gave the illusion he was more effective on defense than he was. Had the voters been sequestered jury style, not one of them would have voted for Iggy. As for 2017 and 2018. You had an unguardable generational talent, in his prime, dropping bombs. Of course KD was going to win the FMVP on that roster. But even if it was split, someone has to win it. It's not often you have 2 of the 3 best players in the world on the same team. It takes nothing away from anyone who wins it. Did Bird care that Cornbread won it over him? Or Worthy over Magic? No it doesnt affect their legacy one bit. The only people who give a shit are the fanboy douchebags Gotter was droaning on about.

Saying the Rockets forgot how to score is a simplistic nonsense take and doesnt take into account the Warriors defense, hustle and amazingly, Stephs as well. Do you know who ran a longer distance than Curry in game 7 btw? No-one. Just because someone posts long winded takes with pompous username dropping thread titles, doesnt mean they have a clue what they're talking about.

Yeah no one gives a **** about those awards

Does anyone really value any talking head media’s take? The majority of these guys don’t even know ball.

[warriorfan]

His take on Curry was correct dureing the Rockets series. They didn't win the series because of Curry and certainly didn't win Game 7 because of him.

And I said if Butler came back from injury that the Warriors would win in 6-7 games, if he didn't come back at all the Rockets would in 5-6.

You're wrong yet again. lol

Can we get an explanation on this? :lol

[Nowoco]

NYK plays "good" basketball, but good ain't good enough to beat the Celtics.

Jalen Brunson is a bulldog. KAT can score from 30 feet away. But they're a few pieces short of serious.

Boston in 5. Won't be close.


The Pacers will make it fun. Maybe even steal two games on hot shooting nights. But they cannot rebound with the Cavaliers. They cannot stop them & they sure as hell can't beat them 4 times.

Cleveland in 6

https://media.tenor.com/ZBHWPKPSLykAAAAM/curry-smiles.gif

I wonder if he starts writing 20 paragraphs of analysis instead of 10 whether he'll be slightly less spectacularly wrong.

[Meticode]

https://media.tenor.com/ZBHWPKPSLykAAAAM/curry-smiles.gif

I wonder if he starts writing 20 paragraphs of analysis instead of 10 whether he'll be slightly less spectacularly wrong.

99% of people were wrong on at least one of those series. Including you both. So was I. No use in putting down someone's take when yours was wrong also on the same exact thing.


Cavs in 7. This is very tough to call mind.

http://www.insidehoops.com/forum/showthread.php?521424-(1)-Cavaliers-vs-(4)-Pacers-Second-Round-Playoff-Series-Thread&p=14999378&viewfull=1#post14999378


Celtics in 5. The Knicks don't have the talent or the mentality. Plus NY teams always shit the bed whenever they play Boston at anything. Weak and terrified of them.

http://www.insidehoops.com/forum/showthread.php?521466-(2)-Celtics-vs-(3)-Knicks-Second-Round-Playoff-Series-Thread&p=14999560&viewfull=1#post14999560

https://media.tenor.com/nafGHVG8KfYAAAAM/tyrese-haliburton-tyrese.gif

[Nowoco]

99% of people were wrong on at least one of those series. Including you.

I dont create look at me threads boasting that I "see things that other don't" with loads of anaysis and be completely wrong.

When I'm wrong, I do it with way less effort and in way less time :rockon:

[Meticode]

I dont create look at me threads boasting that I "see things that other don't" with loads of anaysis and be completely wrong.

When I'm wrong, I do it with way less effort and in way less time :rockon:

I get that, but maybe he just enjoys sharing his detailed take? Just like you like making predictions with one breath then quoting your correct take later and patting yourself on the back. Nothing is wrong with either. It's just weird to put his down though when you were wrong too.

[warriorfan]

We need some more Curry takes from Meticode and OP

[Meticode]

We need some more Curry takes from Meticode and OP

I think his thumb was bothering him more than he let on. But he still struggled through much of the series. Three great games in the Houston series versus four subpar games. Game 2 was meh, Games 4 and 5 were bad. Game 7 and he didn't start making shots until the Warriors were up in the 4th and struggled most of that game. If LeBron did that it would be considered stat-padding or frontrunning. Curry's going to get the same treatment from me.

Sucks he got injured in Game 1 against the Timberwolves. That looked like it was going to be a good game for him.

[Gotterdammerung]

Eastern Conference Finals
Knicks vs Pacers (Season series, Knicks 2-1)

This used to be a clash of basketball philosophies from two franchises that once defined East Conference grit, just before the league got drunk on threes & load management.

The Pacers can win if... they turn the court into a track meet & sucker punch the Knicks with speed & spacing. They averaged 117 plus ppg during the regular season & hit 48.8% from the field.

In the playoffs, they have been even hotter. But games in late May & June are played with bruises not highlight clips. Their offense stretches defenses to the breaking point but let's not pretend they're reinventing the wheel. This is the same run-and-gun act that gets exposed when whistles swallow themselves & possessions get tight.

Still they humbled the Cavaliers' paper tiger defense & made Mobley the so-called DPoY look like a springy traffic cone. Give them credit: they're not just pretty, they're starting to get mean.

Haliburton is a stat sheet sweetheart, leading the league in playoff assists, bombing threes & running the show like a younger skinnier Magic Johnson minus the rebounding & post game. He's slick but not scary. He'll get his, but his game isn't built for muck. Let's see how he handles a forearm in his ribcage 94 feet from the basket.

Siakam is steady, never spectacular, rarely awful. He puts up solid scoring numbers, shooting well & has a ring to prove he knows how to win. Won't carry a team, won't kill it neither. Turner blocks shots & stretches the floor, but also the kind of big man who avoids contact like it's contagious. When elbows start flying, check to see if he's drifting out to the arc like he's allergic to the paint.

The Pacers are deep, athletic, & offensively efficient. But they're built for track meets, not trench warfare.

The Knicks will win because... they don't play basketball. They impose it.
Their pace is molasses. Their defense is unforgiving.
And Brunson is the rarest thing in today's game: cold-blooded closer who actually wants the ball when it matters. He isn't fast, doesn't jump high, & doesn't care. He gets to his spots with surgical precision, uses hesitation like a scalpel, & lives at the FT line when he's not hitting floaters.

Mavericks letting him walk for nothing was malpractice. An all time personnel blunder from a franchise with a history of fumbling elite talent. Luka for AD made headlines, but losing Brunson will haunt them longer than either.

KAT is finally in a spot where he cannot hide. He's been productive: top tier rebounding, scoring & three point shooting. But he still drifts like he's auditioning for Cirque de Soleil. If he shows up mentally, he changes this series. If not he'll vanish behind Josh Hart's hustle.

If there's a stat for floor burns & dirty work, Hart would lead the league. He's a walking triple double threat who doesn't need plays run for him. Anunoby adds scoring & size on the wing, & Bridges , overpaid or not, is available, dependable, & 2-way solid.

The Knicks didn't just beat the Celtics. They broke them. Yes, Tatum went down but a 38 point Game 5 win is a message. This team doesn't need your excuses. They just want your lunch money.

Coach Thibs will ride his starters till the wheels fall off. That's not a flaw. It's a philosophy. In a league infested with rest days & phony injuries, Thibs still believes in accountability & effort.

TL; DR: The Pacers have style, Knicks have substance. Pacers will run, shoot & entertain. The Knicks will grind, punish & frustrate. Brains vs brawn, finesse vs fight.

Last year's 2nd round exit came with half of the Knicks in street clothes. This year they're healthier, tougher & deeper. The ghosts of Reggie & Ewing are long gone, but the bruises remain.

New York in 7

[Gotterdammerung]

Western Conference Finals
OKC Thunder vs Minnesota Timberwolves

WCF Showdown between glitzy new-age juggernaut Thunder & the old-school brick-and-mortar Timberwolves.

One team is a lab experiment gone right. The other is a throwback to the days where defense, size, physicality weren't dirty words.

Big Bodies, Big Ifs
Yes, the Wolves are tough. Yes they defend. And yes, Ant is a rising star. But let's pump the brakes on the coronation.

He's got the tools but can he consistently dictate a series? That's what's required when you're up against a team as methodical & dangerous as OKC.

Randle rediscovered his game vs GSW allergic to interior defense, but do not expect the same soft landing here. The THunder has size, speed, & smarts. Randle won't bully-ball his way to 25 a night when the defense actually rotates & closes space.

And here's Gobert, the NBA's most slandered defensive pillar. He ain't flashy, & doesn't stretch the floor. But still controls the paint like a toll booth operator in a bad mood. Against the warriors? Piece of cake. But against Holmgren & Hartenstein? Both who stretch & punish trad bigs? We'll see if Gobert is an asset or an albatross.

Conely is savvy but he's aging. DiVincenzo is a nice player but he's not the X factor. McDaniels is a legit stopper on the wing. But how much does that matter when OKC can come at you in waves with J-Dub, Caruso & even Holmgren initiating the offense?

Turnovers, the great equalizer. Wolves bleed them like an open wound. GSW failed to make them pay. OKC will.

Anti-Highlight team that wins
Forget the tanking shit for a moment. Strip it all away and what you're left with is a team that does everything well. They do not over-dribble. They don't fall in love with bad shots. They defend every inch of the floor. Their best player, Shai is a cold blooded surgeon.

He won't fly through the air like Ja Morant.
He's not chirping to the camera like Luka.
But night after night he's slicing thru defenses with surgical precision.
He doesn't waste movement. He doesn't play to the camera. He plays to win.

J-Dub is the X-Factor. He is a matchup nightmare when he's locked in. But he gotta avoid the lapses. If he gives them 20 a night consistently the Wolves will have no answer.

Holmgren isn't just an unicorn. He's a porcupine. He protects the basket, stretches the floor & makes Gobert's life miserable in space. & there's Hartenstein, the blue collar 7 footer who does all the dirty work w/o needing the ball. Throw in Caruso's grit & playoff savvy & this team isn't just deep. It's connected.

Coach Daigneault has those guys humming. No ego, no freelancing, no nonsense.
It's old-school ball values in new school shell.

Timberwolves can punch OKC in the mouth. But OKC can take a punch & come back sharper. The Thunder have more ways to beat you, more creators, more discipline & more sustainable formula.

Oklahoma City in 6

[Gotterdammerung]

2025 NBA Finals
Oklahoma City Thunder vs Indiana Pacers


The Pacers are a nice story but nice stories don't win tittles. Juggernauts do. And OKC isn't just a juggernaut, they're a buzzsaw that eats finesse teams alive.

Pacers
Haliburton is the brains behind the Pacers' fast break heavy offense, a system that works best when defenses are lazy, rotations are slow & refs don't call easy stuff. He is a gifted passer & his numbers are clean enough to impress the analytics crowd: almost 10 apg & better than average assist-to-turnover ratio. But he's more of a conductor than a killer. In the Finals, the Pacers need a brawler.

Siakam is the nominal All-Star, which says more about the roster than it does about him. A useful third option on a contender, not the go-to guy on a championship team. 20 ppg, very efficient & predictable, but if the Pacers need a crunch time basket, it won't be from Siakam creating off the bounce or drawing double teams.

Turner is a shotblocker but he still cant rebound consistently. Floats on the perimeter way too much, and his playoff numbers (under 5 a game) is embarrassing for a center. You can't protect the paint if you're hardly ever in it.

Nesmith & Nembhard are nice rotation guys. Nesmith is shooting lights out in the playuoffs, but if you're relying on him to carry the scoring load, it'll be a Gentleman's Sweep. Nembhard is feisty but against the Thunder's swarming D, he's a turnover waiting to happen.

The Pacers play hard, share the ball & punch above their weight. But this Finals is a clear weight class mismatch.

Why OKC will win
The Thunder aren't just better than the Pacers. They're better than almost everyone else. They score like GSW in their prime & defend like the 2004 Pistons. That's no hyperbole but statistical fact. OKC set the alltime record for point differential & is outscoring playoff opponents by double digits. They turn you over (18 per game in the playoffs), won't turn it over (second fewest) & finish possessions with ruthless efficiency.

SGA is not just the head of the snake. He's also the full damn body. The league MVP averaged almost 33 a game this year & torched the Pacers 39 a night in their two matchups. Unlike the Pacers' offense-first guys, SGA doesn't just get buckets. He controls the pace, plays both ends, & doesn't waste possessions. He's surgical, while Haliburton is still playing Operation.

Jalen Williams is the perfect Robin: young, athletic, versatile. He can score, defend, rebound etc. When he's clicking, the OKC offense is unstoppable.

Lu Dort is a tank with sneakers. His jumper is spotty in the playoffs, but you don't keep him on the floor for offense. You keep him there cuz he treats every possession like it's Game 7. Will make life hell for Haliburton & Nembhard.

Hartenstein gives OKC what they were missing a year ago: reliable paint presence who can rebound & body up opposing bigs. Chet Holmgren, despise looking like a bean pole, has been mixing it up. Stiff rim protection & stretches the floor better than most 4s in the league.

The Wild Card is Alex Caruso. The Glue Guy Extraordinaire. Guards 1 through 5, takes charges, dives for loose balls, plays like his contract is on the line for every possession.

TL; DR: The Pacers are very good, but lets' not mistake a hot streak for greatness. This isn't a Finals matchup but a basketball execution. OKC is about to teach the Pacers the difference between upsets & championship pedigree. The Thunder have the better star, the deeper bench, the nastier defense, & the more cohesive identity.

Oklahoma City in 5